I’m cautiously optimistic about this year’s two statewide ballot measures, expecting R-71 to pass, and I-1033 to fail, but when the numbers start coming in shortly after 8PM, I’ll be paying particular attention to the county-by-county results.
There’s little doubt that King County, with about a third of the state’s electorate, will vote overwhelmingly pro-gay and anti-Eyman, as will several other reliably liberal counties. So if the early numbers are even remotely close, it will be the results from the other side of the mountains that could provide the best predictor of the final outcome.
I simply don’t expect R-71 to lose big enough where it needs to lose big if the measure is to be defeated, thanks in large part to the strong libertarian streak that defines the western states. I’m not saying that Central and Eastern Washington aren’t majority conservative, just that there isn’t an overwhelming majority of conservatives out there who are particularly interested in denying rights to gays and lesbians. They may not like gays, and they certainly wouldn’t want their children to become one. But their lives are their lives, and all that.
One would think this same libertarian streak would bode well for Tim Eyman’s government drowning I-1033, but this is where personal self-interest comes into play. For as much as rural Washingtonians bask in their self-image of rugged independence, their limited tax base leaves them more dependent on state tax dollars than more populous regions of the state, and thus their communities would be disproportionately impacted by the inevitable cuts in state spending I-1033 would necessitate over time.
Already struggling to meet basic needs, I-1033 has received little support from local elected officials, even Republicans. And local voters are swayed by their local leaders.
So while I expect I-1033 to pass in the vast majority of counties, I don’t expect it to pass by nearly a large enough margin to offset its loss in King County. I’ll be looking to counties like Yakima, Chelan, Spokane and Benton as early bell-weathers for the other side of the state, comparing their results to that of 2007’s I-960. Here on our side of the mountains I’ll be paying close attention to populist Snohomish and Clark counties in anticipation of a possible shift onto the anti-Eyman side of the ledger.
I’d like to believe that there is less of an East/West divide than there’s often made out to be. And I’m cautiously optimistic that tonight’s election results will bear this out.
Overcoming the voting bloc of King County is always difficult. King County essentially runs the entire state.
Having lived for years in the Yakima valley, I disagree with your assessment of the opposition to gay rights. Those people are Old Testament Thumpers, with rare exception, and they’ll vote No on 71. I also think that you do not understand the depth of resentment for the godless heathen seattle elitist filthy liberals who take all the hard earned money away from the holy and righteous eastern washington good old boys and spend it on high-falutin’ seattle toys.
That is to say, they are mostly Cynicals.
Eastern Washington is irrelevant. They like to boast they have two-thirds of the state’s land area, but fail to mention they have only a fifth of the state’s people. A third of whom are Democrats anyway. 65% of 20% is 13% which doesn’t get you there.
Have you ever driven through eastern Washington? Not on the freeways, but on the state highways and county roads, where you can see where (and how) the folks there actually live.
What you see, in many cases, is deteriorating trailer homes and yards full of junk vehicles and trash. Big swaths of eastern Washington are government land, but the privately owned portion of it is one gigantic trash heap. These people don’t have garbage pickup; they simply throw their refuse out the back door. It piles up in the yard and stays there for 100 years or eternity.
Believe me, these people can be ignored.
X’ad @2,
I’m not saying that R-71 will pass in Yakima or that I-1033 will lose there. Just that these measures likely won’t pass and fail in places like Yakima at a large enough margin to overcome the vote in King.
But we’ll see. That’s why I’ll be examining the county-by-county early returns.
A rural Republican’s concept of natural beauty is a heap of mining tailings and a polluted water catchment basin.
The other thing to watch on I-1033 is to see how many King County ballots record no vote on it. Stupid ballot design may yet hand Eyman a victory.
A wether (not “weather”) is a castrated male sheep who, while wearing a bell, leads the flock.
Just like clockwork, every election day comes the braying:
FRAUD! ACORN!
http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpoi.....in_sto.php
I mean it was fun at one time to go to (un)SP on a day like today and see how long it would take for the chorus to warm up.
I just found a new level of loathing for Roger Rabbit. He’s one seriously mean person. Oh well, maybe karma will pay him back.
Goldy, I think you’re pretty close to right on R-71. Contrary to seemingly west side wisdom…Eastern Washington isn’t 100% bigoted Bible thumpers. There’s a bunch of moderate folks that roll their eyes about them just about as much as Seattle.
However, they are the ones that vote. And they vote in off-year elections. And they rally even more when they sense an opportunity to screw with other peoples lives because they think they own the definition of “marriage”. I think if the voter turnout is like Reed predicts….R-71 will pass fine.
1033 is a bit tougher. Even moderates in EW….people with a basic grasp on what local government does…still despise taxes. And they still might go for 1033 at the same time they approve their school levy. Go figure.
So, Benton County might be a bellwether as it’s the second biggest chunk of meat in EW, and tends to follow KC, Tacoma, Pierce, and sometimes Snohomish.
I think we’ll all be hitting F5 many times at 8 p.m. tonight. ;)
Hey ylb arschloch,
You brought up Mike Duvall recently. Looks like the charges are not true. So why hasn’t the HA arschloch ylb arschloch placing this story here?
Because you are a FOOL and a HYPOCRITE!
BTW the Minnesota news papers have wondered about ACORN and AL Franken-stein erection. Check your chronologically deficient tctmgr database fool.
RR is a mostly reformed Goldwater Republican. The mean streak dates back to his Republican days.
it wouldn’t matter if the state was split in two, people in Yakima or Wenatchee would still bitch about the largest city, Spokane full of elitists robbing their birthright. It’s fun to remind citizens of the state how equalization is distributed.
Geeze, that Rabbit is in one hell of a foul mood today.
I can’t really disagree with his observations, but must one really be so blunt?
Eastern Washington certainly does have it’s quota of god-forsaken shit holes like Richland & Yakima. But to be fair, they are certainly no worse than Chehalis or Kelso.
The issues this go-round are pretty straight forward:
If you are a Bible Thumper or just hate “the Gay”, vote no on R-71.
If you flunked out of Economics in college, or just didn’t bother to take it, vote yes on I-1033.
If you want Kemper Freeman calling the shots in King County, vote Hutch.
If you don’t want to be bothered with irksome tasks like taking out the trash, move to Ritzville.
Ooh, ACORN. Dude, Halloween was last week. Time to put all your boogie men back in the closet until next year.
If you really want to know about voter fraud, look up the name you won’t see on Fox news, Mark Jacoby.
The 26th LD (Gig Harbor-Bremerton) has sent more than its share of crazed, right-wing, bible thumpers to the state ledg. The bible thumpers aren’t limited to eastern WA.
The reject 71 crowd has been sign waving on Gig Harbor street corners for the last couple of weeks. They haven’t seemed to figure out that when I wave at them I have my middle finger in the air.
Goldy, I think you’ve got this one about right.
13 RLF
Ever been to Benton City?
I used to play in a band n which two members were originally from Tri-Cities, and whenever we all went over there, I remember Benton City standing out as the armpit of the region, and, I assumed, the state.
Way ahead of you on that one fool. Is the bubble memory defective? I gave Stamm a hard time about that a few threads back.
In the case of one mistress he boasted about AFAIK. There was another.
If he was just boasting, why’d he resign?
Because he’s a “family values” hypocrite that’s why – just like your whole ugly party fool.
Sorry your stupidity doesn’t wash idiot. Doesn’t even merit a “nice try”..
@16 DL
I used to be a deputy coroner in Benton county, You have obviously never sampled the wonders of Mabton, or West Richland. Or Union Gap.
10 Pud
You are incorrect. What it “looks like” is that Duvall and the energy lobbyist he bragged about spanking and screwing have bith denied having an affair. But also, what it “looks like” is that it probably IS true, even though a US attorney has decided not to pursue the case, which also does not mean it’s not true.
You see, during the recorded remarks Duvall referred to her actual age aqnd birthdate, because what good Congressman doesn’t know the age and birth date of every one of the lobbyists who have business before his committee?
And then the article to which you linked links to another article in which the following are reported:
1. “According to the OC Weekly, Duvall and Barsuglia have been seen ‘arm-in-arm’ at fund-raising events, and even shopping for groceries together near the Capitol.”
and
2. One Sacramento staffer (presumably legislative) told the paper (presumably the OC Weekly): “Their relationship is the worst-kept secret in Sacramento.”
Yeah, that’s all so not true that he resigned over it.
Daddy @16:
I’m sure we could go on and on with nominations for remarkably awful places to live on both sides of the Pacific Crest. But we need to have a little compassion for the poor souls who still reside there.
After all, it’s not their fault they were born there or had the misfortune of moving there with their parents before the age of consent. Nor can they be blamed for harboring religious or political ideologies that would make a Neanderthal blush.
All their lives, they have been told the reason for their unfortunate station in life is those {insert racial or ideological slur} bastards in Seattle. How could they know any better?
@16
You mean Bentucky! It’s actually a little better now. At least it’s trying.
I’ll throw out my prediction here and say that Benton County will have the highest percentage that reject 71 and approve 1033. I live here and I’m ashamed…
Other than that… yep… Goldy sums it pretty well.
@21
I thought it was Bentonssippi. And Fintucky was that appendage thing attached to Kennewick like a sickly third nipple.
I know a girl in Benton City
She’s got a tattoo on her titty
She can sing
She can dance
She’s got a muskrat in her pants!
@23 LOL! You by chance part of the Daddy Love band thing in #16?
Billy Bob and the Muskrats. LIVE at the Palm Tavern in beautiful downtown Benton City.
No Cover
No Guns
Jimmy @21:
My friends from that area (hard right-wingers all) used to like to point out that, due to the Hanford Nuclear Facility up the road, their area sported the highest number of post grads per capita in the State. Ergo, they were all very intelligent and therefore more than validated in their extremely conservative opinions.
I would respond by pointing out that there is no particular link between intelligence and any ideology. Let’s concede there are smart people on both sides of the aisle.
I would also point out that engineers and technicians, as a group, aren’t particularly well educated.
Highly trained? Absolutely! But “educated”? Not so much.
The rigors of obtaining an engineering degree are such that they simply don’t have the time or intellectual energy to also pursue an education. That’s why it’s very tempting for them to hit the Talk Radio button on the way to and fro and get their political views.
It’s a lot like religion: If you don’t think about very much, it sort of makes sense.
Multiple choice quiz for Rog.
1. Who has the more progressive voting record.
Is it:
A. Lisa Brown
B. Frank Chopp
2. Congressman Tom Foley, the Democratic (served in congress from ’64-’95) speaker of the house from 1991 to 1995, was from which city?
A. Spokane
B. Seattle
I’m watching Walla Walla county this time around. WWC went for Obama and is home to a whole lot of state employees (prison workers).
I was wondering where I’d get a dose of childish parochialism today. The urban/rural conundrum now cast in a series of stereotypes by almost all of you, who somehow think we can tell how someone thinks by how or where they live. This is just like Fox news: Entertaining. Complete bullshit, but entertaining.
Except of course about Benton City. A dump, even by western Washington standards.
Most everyone knows Eyman is a crook, and most everyone doesn’t care if someone is gay. Backwater Spokane elected Jim West mayor…how’s that for diversity?
The cascade curtain is real, but neither side has the corner on wisdom: Ellen Craswell, cougar hunting rules, and Tim Eyman are all from your side, folks. We’uns over hear got some, too, (Doc Hastings, some truly goofy state legislators) but they’s busy skirtin’ trailers right now.
My guess, watch Snohomish county..1033 goes down, 71 passes closely. Pretty much statewide.
Print this thread, and thanks to the rabbit! Do you people (and a certain Sylvilagus floridanus) realize that these comments only serve to increase republican turn-out. Irrelevant of the ballot choices (I am against both major referendums), these excessive attitudes towards the “other side” only make our job easier in current and future elections. Kind of odd that the mistakes made by republicans in the recent past seem to be par for the course in the current state democratic party statements.
You really need to check on all those “wastelands” listed above, and understand why our economy hasn’t fallen as hard as King Counties (how’s that Boeing thing working for you?). Thanks, Mr. Wrabbit, for your statements in making a republican comeback all the more probable.
Have a nice day,
Farmer Fred
On the day Mt St Helens blew, I slept through the original bang. I had to go to Richland and came back through Benton City. It was in BC that little pieces of pumice started bouncing off the hood. I thought it was hail, until I saw it wasn’t melting. Then I freaked.
I will always remember Benton City for that. I thought Hanford had gone up.
A couple of thoughts about us folks over here in the river city capital of the Inland Empire:
The City itself usually leans more to the liberal side in social issues and centrist on financial ones. This may be partly true because of the number of colleges and universities here as well as the utter dependence upon all things cultural to bring people into the city (hell, we host the annual Imperial Sovereign Court of WA state here, and Dempsey’s Brass Rail is apparently internationally legendary). It also may stem from the openness of governance (both City and County) that publicly acknowledges the NGOs and non-profits significant investments into redevelopment infrastructure (hence our prop 4).
The greater Spokane area is another matter; semi-rural landscape pocketed with small communities of agricultural wealth (hey RR, we burn trash here for electric power). With three times the population of the City, the County outside the city is far more conservative and vocal about it. I would think that the demographics will show that when the totals come in late tonight or tomorrow morning.
@2 “I also think that you do not understand the depth of resentment for the godless heathen seattle elitist filthy liberals who take all the hard earned money away from the holy and righteous eastern washington good old boys and spend it on high-falutin’ seattle toys.”
Are you referring to the $128 million a year of King County gas taxes that pay for roads in rural counties?
@9 “I just found a new level of loathing for Roger Rabbit.”
Coming from you, that’s a compliment.
“He’s one seriously mean person.”
No, I’m a feral rabbit. Uncivilized wildlife isn’t expected to be nicey-nicey. In nature, we don’t do nice; anything we get our paws on is either fucked or eaten.
@12 “people in Yakima or Wenatchee” have forgotten that city money paid for the dams that continue to supply them with cheap irrigation water and cheap electricity to pump it into their fields.
@25 Whattaya mean NO GUNS?!!! In a Benton City saloon? You’re kidding right???
What’s the fucking point of going to Benton City if you can’t pack guns in the saloons.
@26 Every single one of those engineers and technicians is living on government dimes, so of course they’ve very conservative and against government spending …
@27 Obviously you’re trying to point out that Spokane is an island of sanity floating above a sea of irrationality. Question #3 is:
Which city produced a notorious serial killer?
A. Seattle
B. Spokane
The answer, of course, is both.
And question #4 is:
Which of them got the death penalty?
A. Seattle’s serial killer
B. Spokane’s serial killer
The answer is Spokane’s serial killer — for murders he committed in Tacoma.
@30 Your ridiculous diatribe assumes that eastern Washington Republicans haven’t been voting, and their only motivation for doing so now is obnoxious (even though true) observations by Seattle’s wildlife. I’m just a fucking reporter, man. I don’t make the facts.
@32 “(hey RR, we burn trash here for electric power)”
Yeah, I remember the environmentalist protests against your waste-to-energy plant — and Spokane built it anyone. I helped block the one Seattle wanted to build in Charlie Royer days.
correction @41 – anyway not anyone
Because he impugned others ya stupid moron. Peeps took umbrage to his sleasiness fool.
You are the dumbest brick around.
Daddy Love@19
Hmmm… Item #1
Hmmm… Item #2
You bricked on this one Daddy Love.
@13 “Geeze, that Rabbit is in one hell of a foul mood today.”
Is it that obvious? I’m sorry. Yes, but I can’t talk about the reason why in a public forum.
You forgot Plymouth and Patterson, Prosser too. But I’m a Kennewick guy myself
And then there’s Yakivegas or Crackima.
Thinking you’re better than anyone else will come back to bite you in the butt.
Hey now RR, the incinerator is horrible, it requires the abandonment of recycling plastics so that the various petroleum distillates in the trash help the burn. If you pay attention to the local reporting weather stations, the trash to power site is the hottest zone in the region throughout the year (can you say thermal and CO2 pollution). I didn’t say it was right, i said it exists to keep the heaps of trash from forming in areas where it previously would have stacked up for decades.
Now to the good news: Spokane elected two very progressive city council members today (one a very good friend) and also some liberal type judges. One can only look for the silver linings these days.