Data for August 12th are now posted. The total signatures examined in completed binders is 48,299, or 35.1% of the total signatures turned in. There have been 5,121 invalid signatures found, for an cumulative rejection rate of 10.60%.
The invalid signatures include 4,491 that were not found in the voting rolls, 242 duplicates, and 388 that did not match the signature on file. There are also 21 signatures at various states of processing for a missing signature card. (For some reason the SoS office still counts these as invalid signatures; I ignoring them.) The 242 duplicate signatures suggest an overall rate of duplication of about 1.74%.
Using this V2 estimator, the number of valid signatures is expected to be 121,817 providing a buffer of 1,240 signatures over the 120,577 needed to qualify for the ballot. The overall rejection rate (which includes the projected total number of duplicate signatures) is about 11.53%.
To assess sampling uncertainty, I simulated petition samples, drawing numbers for each invalid signature type from a distribution that properly reflects the underlying statistical uncertainty. After 100,000 such simulations, 121,820 signatures were valid on average, and 95% of the simulations yielded 121,184 to 122,449 valid signatures. For 99.989% of the simulations the measure had enough signatures to qualify for the ballot. This number is an unbiased estimate of the probability that the measure will make it to the ballot.
The low uncertainty in qualifying for the ballot is easily seen as a picture. Here is the resulting distribution of signatures relative to the number required to qualify. Red bars (to the left of the vertical dashed line) means the measure is stopped. Green (on the right) means it qualified.
The data released by the SoS office, so far, suggests that the measure is likely to qualify with an excess of about 1,240 signatures. This projection does not account for potential errors other than sampling error.
Too bad. Guess we’re gonna have to vote for it.
David is governed by emotion, and unwarranted hubris overwhelmed him this day:
http://horsesass.org/?p=18670
I don’t buy David’s presumption of his superiority. He’s a fuckup.
if you were that careful about voter fraud during the presidential election, obama would still be a state senator
@3: Stupid quote of the week by the racist of the year, woman of falsehood:
Yeh right, Obama won by the largest margin by a non-incumbent in history. Voter fraud? Nope.
Only within the confines of your tiny cranial vault could anyone even dream up such a pathetically ignorant falsehood.
Darryl… Thank you. And I agree this does not look good for us. However, isn’t the big assumption here that the sample is random (even though it’s quite large now)? I assume that if the SOS office is only going to sample signatures, they probably shuffle them and pick a random sample to verify. In this case, they are likely just pulling from the top of the stack because they’ve got to go through them all anyway. Is it possible there are some bad batches down the stack from paid signature gatherers or others?
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Shit happens, I’ll wait for everything to actually be counted.
Tony,
“However, isn’t the big assumption here that the sample is random (even though it’s quite large now)?”
This is an assumption, and a big one at that. I’ve not seen anything to suggest anything other than sampling error so far. I’ll be posting an analysis soon.
Unless the signatures are being examined in chronological order of collection AND the later signature sheets have a much higher error rate, I just don’t see this turning around. Sorry.
So. I get to vote on someone else’s civil rights.
Pretty heady stuff. Maybe we should have voter literacy tests, too.
Let’s see what God has to say about it. Can you tell us, manoftrufs?
@10 “vote on someone else’s civil rights”
That’s what’s so disturbing about this initiative.
@3 LOL
You don’t think maybe Obama might have actually won because your party was run by a President with the lowest approval ratings in the HISTORY of polling? That MIGHT have something to do with it. Dude, a dead ground hog would have won against that party. And adding Sarah Palin was the nail in the coffin, driving away almost all independents and sane people.
To the point, look, these folks successfully stop “the blacks” from marrying white people for decades. The same arguments and same philosophy also fought to keep women from voting. These sad people always chant “if we allow (group x) rights our society will crumble!”. This has been said many times in history about many groups. And guess what? EVERY single time in history it’s been wrong. Our society didn’t crumble with women voting. It didn’t fall apart because blacks could vote or marry white people. It didn’t fall apart because we let in the Irish, or Catholics, or Jews. Despite the fact that these folks have been WRONG every single time throughout history, they keep trying.
This sadly isn’t a fast process. The dumb uneducated violent people always have the ability to slow the system. The KKK and their philosophical brothers will always hate gays, blacks, Jews and immigrants. Nothing will ever change them. I just hope there’s more sane, loving, educated, nice people in the world.
No, you are voting on whether or not grade school children will be brainwashed by teachers who will force them to read King & King, and Heather Has Two Mommies. That’s how I see it. I say no to the indoctrination.
Criminalization of free speech and “anti-bullying” laws follow the legalization of same-sex “marriage”. In a few short months after legalizing same-sex “marriage” in Canada, activists there successfully passed C-250, a bill criminalizing public statements against homosexuality, punishable by up to two years in prison! Pastors beware! The same will happen here in Washington.
King & King:
“In 2006 Robb and Robin Wirthlin and David and Tonia Parker filed a federal lawsuit against the school district of Estabrook Elementary School, which their second grader attends in Lexington, Massachusetts. They claim that using the book in school constituted sexual education without parental notification, which would be a violation of their civil rights and state law. Robin Wirthlin appeared on CNN, saying, “We felt like seven years old is not appropriate to introduce homosexual themes. […] My problem is that this issue of romantic attraction between two men is being presented to my seven-year-old as wonderful, and good and the way things should be. […] Let us know and let us excuse our child from the discussion.”
The judge dismissed the lawsuit
@15 “The judge dismissed the lawsuit.”
Exactly. The lawsuit was nothing more than sideshow grandstanding. Thank you for finally admitting that.
Troll, marriage equality has existed in MA for 5 years, and there have been full civil unions in VT (and now marriage =) for 10 years. Nobody has been thrown in jail for spewing hateful lies about gays in those states. When will your apolcalypse happen? “Never” is the answer, but that will never do for fake xtian drama queens, will it?
Darryl–
The dupication rate will obviously increase as more sigs are processed. I don’t have time today to review your work, but did you factor this in??
Oh no R-71 may be on da ballot dis fall. Gotta pizz off the HA Libtardos.
Wonder if we’ll see the Libtardos buying anti-71 air time for the fall campaign if it’s on da ballot?
Puddy–
Goldy and his angry band of NW Lunatic Moonbats ought to be HAPPY this is on the ballot. They are sooooooooo confident they represent the majority of Washingtonians on this and every issue…that this vote will likely prove them right!
What are they afraid of???
The anti-Ref 71 mob fear the vote of the people. They will do anything to accomplish their self-serving goals; including debasing the office of the governor.
All Ref-71 does is give the people of the State of Washington the choice if they wish to live under this sweeping legislation. Since it will change the definition of husband and wife throughout the RCW that has been in use since the founding of this state, it is appropriate the people, not the legislators have the final say in this matter. Yet the governor disgraced her office by purposely delaying the referendum, which she opposes by over 20 of the allotted 90 days. She is the governor if all Washington State Citizens, not just her partisans.
Unlike other referendums, the Pro-Ref 71 folks only had 70 days to gather approximately 120,000+ signatures. They averaged just below 2000 signatures a day. At this pace, given the full 90 days they would have had over 175,000+ more than enough signatures to assure a place on the ballot with a 30% signature rejection rate.
If Ref 71 does pass, it will be a razor thin victory against all odds. If it fails, it was due to the cowardly threats and devious acts of the anti-Ref-71 mob. If Ref-71 fails, we all lose.
Mr Cynical @ 17,
“The dup[l]ication rate will obviously increase as more sigs are processed. I don’t have time today to review your work, but did you factor this in??”
Yes. The projected duplication rate for the full petition is 1.74%.
Darryl–
My point was the duplication rate will be higher than 1.74 as more sigs are processed.
Are you saying the 1.74 is higher than the rate thus far??
If not, you can justify a higher rate in your model.