Archives for January 2005

Yawn.

In other breaking news, it didn’t snow yesterday… yet in some places it did… prompting angry bloggers to attack King County’s failure to reconcile its weather with its forecasts, as a “total mess.”

RCW 29A.68.110
Illegal votes — Number of votes affected — Enough to change result.

No election may be set aside on account of illegal votes, unless it appears that an amount of illegal votes has been given to the person whose right is being contested, that, if taken from that person, would reduce the number of the person’s legal votes below the number of votes given to some other person for the same office, after deducting therefrom the illegal votes that may be shown to have been given to the other person.

The Republicans are going to have to prove, at the very least, the appearance that the margin of illegal votes given to Gregoire exceeds her margin of victory. In Foulkes v. Hayes, the court accepted evidentiary findings of substantial ballot tampering on behalf of the contested candidate. But there has been no such evidence uncovered thus far in the governor’s race.

Given the lack of evidence that illegal ballots favored a particular candidate, it is not certain that the courts would even attempt to assign these votes to one candidate or the other. But if they did, the only reasonable method would be to take the known margins in the counties or precincts in which they were cast, and extrapolate this to the disputed ballots. Ironically, by that method, the 52 votes cast by felons allegedly found by the BIAW in Pierce County would result in a net gain for Rossi.

As to the unknown number of provisional ballots that are alleged to have been improperly scanned at the polling places, it is not clear that these even fit the definition of “illegal.” These ballots were not properly canvassed, due to error by poll workers. But if they had been handled properly, it seems likely that 90% of them would have been valid votes, based on the county wide percentages. So perhaps, maybe 30 to 40 ballots were counted that would not have otherwise.

There are errors and mistakes in every election, but there has been no evidence of misconduct, and no evidence of illegal votes being cast in favor of Gregoire. Furthermore, there has been no evidence that this election has been more flawed than the typical election.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, if this election is tossed out on the evidence publicly presented thus far, then every close election should be tossed out, because the precedent will be that you simply need to prove that the margin of victory was within the margin of error… and that is true of every close election.

I don’t believe the courts would want to set that kind of precedent. And as Sam Reed reiterated this morning on KUOW: “I don’t think Republicans have a smoking gun.”

Times investigators found that in six of the state’s largest counties, only 24 dead people were credited with voting this November.

However, most of those votes were mistakes made either when someone at the polls signed on the wrong line or when a relative with the same name inadvertently voted using the wrong absentee ballot.

Elections officials say only three of the cases warrant referrals for felony prosecution, while several more require further investigation. Secretary of State Sam Reed said he would “prosecute to the hilt” any valid case, but personally, I’m kind of hoping they go lightly on Robert Holmgren, who followed his wife’s dying wish that he vote her ballot for Dino Rossi.

“I know by the law it wasn’t right, but it felt right in my heart,” he said. “I wasn’t trying to defraud anybody. I was just going with my wife’s last wishes.”

So let’s see, how many smoking guns have we debunked thus far? Inaccurate hand recount, late military ballots, voting list discrepancies, and now Democratic voters from Hell. (That’s where Republican’s apparently assume all Democrats go when we die.)

What’s left? Well, there’s the question about an unconfirmed number of provisional ballots that may have been improperly fed into the scanning machines at some polling places. And that, reports the Times is apparently the basis of an election contest the state GOP plans to file today.

I’ll have more on this later, but I should quickly note that with the number of such ballots reported to be as high as 350, and with 90 percent of provisional ballots countywide found to be valid, your looking at no more than about 35 ballots that are likely illegitimate votes. Not enough to throw out an election based on a clerical error.

Well, two can play at that game… indeed, two must. Too often the voice of the many is drowned out by the voice of the loud.

So please call the Legislative Hotline (1.800.562.6000 ) and contact your legislators, and urge them to follow the rule of law and certify this election.

Be polite, but firm. Make it clear that Gregoire won this election according to the rules in place, and that the proper forum to address any claims of fraud or irregularities is a court of law… not the legislature, and not the court of public opinion.

And make it absolutely clear to Democrats in swing districts that this is a battle between two political parties, and if there was ever a time for party unity, it is now. If they do the right thing and certify this election as the law prescribes, they will have your support. But if they give in to threats coming from the GOP’s well-orchestrated PR campaign and break ranks with their party, let them know that angry Republicans will be the least of their worries.

While insisting that he has seen no evidence of wrongdoing, Reed unveiled today an election reform package aimed at addressing some of the problems uncovered in the Nov. 2 election. Proposed reforms include:

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In this post I will expose the mock outrage over the “discrepancy” between the number of voters credited with voting, and the number of ballots cast. Ready? They’re not intended to reconcile.

For those actually interested in the truth, King County Director of Elections Dean Logan has posted a document explaining what this voter list really is:

Historically, the number of votes cast and the number of voters credited with voting does not typically balance.

State election laws address ballot security and accountability on the front end of the elections process

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King County Elections began mailing oversea and military ballots for the General Election on Oct.1, 2004. These were from an absentee category referred to as “submarine” or “special absentee ballots” for voters who may not be able to receive a regular absentee ballot within the timeframe necessary to participate in the election. The bulk of the military and overseas ballots were mailed on Oct.6 with some mailings in between these two dates and subsequent mailings as further requests were received.

246 ballots went out on Oct. 1, the bulk were mailed by Oct. 6, and an additional 3055 went out on Oct. 10. KC issued 15,289 military and overseas ballots in all, and of these, 12,694 were received back… exactly matching King County’s overall 83% turnout rate.

In addition to regular absentee ballots available to military personnel, King County also provided ballots via fax or email to those who contacted the office that they had not received their regular ballot by election day. Several hundred of these were issued. In addition…

The Federal Voting Assistance Program, a program of the United States Department of Defense monitors services for military and overseas voters. Under federal law, a federal write-in ballot is also available from armed services voting assistance officers to allow service members the opportunity to cast a ballot for federal office. These ballots are accepted and counted even if the service member is not listed as a registered voter in the jurisdiction where they indicate their residence.

1,342 Federal Write-in ballots received, and 1,081 validated and counted.

As to the oft raised question of military and overseas ballots that were received too late to be counted, King County reports a grand total of… sixteen.

The Washington State GOP is now running a deceptive and dishonest radio ad, featuring a wounded marine who did not receive his ballot on time. While this is regrettable, and both parties should work together to assure that military ballots are mailed out even sooner, it is despicable to attempt to turn this into a partisan issue, when all the facts indicate that King County conscientiously issued military ballots in a timely manner, and in full accordance with federal law.

Dino Rossi’s PR henchmen continue to cynically impugn Christine Gregoire’s patriotism, but as part of a legal contest of this election, military ballots are clearly a non-issue.

Coming soon, much ado over voter lists…

For a winning candidate to go through three counts and then agree to another election would defy all the laws of politics (and reason). For a candidate losing the third count to call for such an election is

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In case you forgot, Will Baker, a self-described “International Man of Diplomacy”, was the Republican candidate for State Auditor this past November. He’s also a roadside flower salesman, former exotic dancer, and devout conspiracy theorist who’s been booked into Pierce County Jail 19 times for harassing public officials. The state GOP was surprised to learn he’d only just been released from a six month jail sentence for “disturbing an official city meeting” at the time they filed him for the ballot.

“We are stuck with him,” said Republican Party Chairman Chris Vance. “It’s somewhat embarrassing. We should have been more thorough in checking him out.”

Oops.

But then, Vance is well known for his less-than-thorough vetting process. You know, like that big show he put on, demanding that canvassing boards count all those absentee and provisional ballots… that were already counted.

And here’s the funny thing. Despite the party’s well publicized attempt to “unfile” him, 841,772 loyal Republicans actually voted for this lunatic! Either Brian Sonntag has really pissed off the Republican electorate, or… well… you come to your own conclusion.

Stefan at (un)Sound Politics has delved into these numbers with his usual reckless abandon (you know… for reason, logic, or fairness,) despite the fact that the Secretary of State, county auditors, and state statute all confirm that these returns are “unofficial”, and that discrepancies such as these are common.

How common? Well according to an AP report by Rebecca Cook, state Republicans are claiming at least four “Rossi-supporting counties have similar shortfalls.”

Snohomish County has 1,738 fewer voters on its list than certified votes; Pierce County has 1,640; Clark County has 1,018; and Kitsap County has 484.

Huh.

So I did some number crunching, and I think you’ll find it curious to see how these discrepancies compare as a percentage of total votes cast per county. (For a lark, I have also included the voting margins.)

County		Discrepancy	Rossi	Gregoire
Clark		.59%		53%	45%
Snohomish	.58%		50%	48%
Pierce		.52%		51%	47%
Kitsap		.41%		49%	48%
King		.39%		40%	58%

Now if I were as statistically devious as some bloggers I know, I might point out an interesting pattern emerging: that the relative discrepancy rate is nearly proportionate to Dino Rossi’s margin of victory. But what should be plainly clear to even the most partisan observer is that despite the unrelenting attacks on the integrity and competence of their election officials, King County has by far the lowest discrepancy rate of any of the counties surveyed.

Are the results preliminary? Absolutely. Are discrepancies of this magnitude uncommon? Apparently not.

The discrepancy is “definitely, absolutely normal,” said Pierce County Auditor Pat McCarthy. She said the list of names may not include voters who have moved in the two months since the election and whose names have been “cleaned” from the rolls, and it may not include voters who were previously categorized as “inactive.”

Indeed, Clark County Auditor Greg Kimsey — a Republican — expects only about half of the vote-to-voter discrepancy to be accounted for in the final returns… but he has no plans to try to account for the extra votes:

“It would be a huge task,” Kimsey said. “You are looking through 121,679 absentee ballots, affidavit envelopes and through poll books where 50,598 voters cast their ballots.

“The controls that are in place in the election process ensure that only registered voters are going to receive a ballot. While I understand the concern that comes from seeing two different numbers, the controls are at the front end.”

As of this writing, our friends at (un)Sound Politics (and their emissaries commenting here) have yet to focus on discrepancies outside of King County. Perhaps they haven’t yet decided what to do with the rhetorical dilemma this information presents them. They could follow Chris Vance’s ill-advised legal strategy and attempt to call into question the integrity of results statewide. Problem is, the law doesn’t actually require the counties to reconcile the voter lists with the number of votes counted.

Or they could continue their Ukrainian-themed festival of Democrat-bashing propaganda, in a desperate attempt to prove to themselves — if not the public or the courts — that a corrupt and incompetent King County stole this election.

I’m guessing they’ll try a little of both. But whatever they do, it’s quickly becoming apparent that yet another one of their smoking guns… shoots blanks.

Reed says that he understands that many in his party thought he should use his position to “weigh the scales” on behalf of Dino Rossi, but that it just would not have been proper.

“There are some people who have been dismayed that I wasn’t a Katherine Harris who took the position, ‘I’m a Republican, and by God that comes first.’ “

Ain’t that the truth.

Even his predecessor, Ralph Munro — who earlier floated the idea of a new election but has since seemed to back away — described Reed as fair and honest, pointing out that he had a duty to follow the Constitution and the law. But that hasn’t stopped his fellow Republicans from turning on one of the party’s highest ranking state officials. Given the chance to defend Reed, GOPolitburo Chair Chris Vance could only muster a “No comment.”

Still, Reed does have some support, and not just from Democrats, pleasantly surprised at how nonpartisan he was in executing his office. Clark County Auditor Greg Kimsey pointed out:

“Unfortunately some people cannot separate the conduct of a fair and accurate election process as set forth in law from their disappointment with the outcome.”

Personally, I empathize with Republicans disappointed over the outcome of this election; it must be especially painful to have come so close.

But how R’s react to this disappointment from here on out, will do much to shape public perception of this election, and the players involved. Many hardcore Republicans seem to believe that a strident, combative stance will only strengthen their future political prospects. But even as Rossi’s carefully tailored image as a mild-mannered moderate slowly unravels to reveal the right-wing partisan he has always been, Reed’s street cred with the voting public has become firmly established. During the campaign, Rossi talked a lot about being a different kind of politician, but during the recount, Reed walked the walk.

It is ironic that the one Republican who is sure to come out of this election controversy a winner, is the one the Republican leadership currently loves to hate.

The 10,000 ballot underestimate during the first count, the provisional ballot affidavits, “changing the rules” to count 735 misfiled ballots, disenfranchised military voters, partisan canvassing decisions, lax security, enhanced and duplicated ballots, improper voter registrations… it is all intended to crush the integrity of the electoral system under the combined weight of the various allegations.

Now perhaps the unSound sycophants find it convincing, but as legal evidence in an election contest… it’s all load of monkey poop. Not a single one of these so-called-scandals provides legal grounds for overturning this election. And no court is going to set aside the results simply because the election was chaotic, or imperfect, or close.

But the monkeys keep on typing, and the latest “smoking turd” to roll off their Smith-Coronas is the supposedly shocking discrepancy between the number of people who voted, and the number of ballots counted in King County. County officials and the Secretary of State have all said that these returns are preliminary and unofficial. But how could King County possibly certify the results, the monkey’s angrily demand, based on unofficial returns?

Hmmm. How about RCW 29A.60.190, which is plainly titled “Certification of election results — Unofficial returns”…?

So how long do the counties have before submitting the final returns? Well, I’m not exactly sure, but according to RCW 29A.60.230 it seems a final report on absentee ballots is not due until March 31st. So personally, I’m just going to remain patient and wait for the final numbers before I start worrying about the typing monkeys.

Oh… and one other thought. It’s not at all clear to me, that even if King County fails to reconcile all the discrepancies in its returns, that this would provide grounds for an election contest either:

RCW 29A.60.130
Certificate not withheld for informality in returns.

No certificate shall be withheld on account of any defect or informality in the returns of any election, if it can with reasonable certainty be ascertained from such return what office is intended, and who is entitled to such certificate, nor shall any commission be withheld by the governor on account of any defect or informality of any return made to the office of the secretary of state.

I think the key words here are “reasonable certainty”, a phrase repeated in RCW 29A.60.200. But, the usual caveat: much to my mother’s chagrin, I am not an attorney. I’m not entirely sure what to make of this statute… but hell if I’m going to trust a bunch of typing monkeys.