Archives for October 2004

Yet another major poll has come out showing Bush’s late summer lead in the polls to have been illusory, this time from Zogby International, which reports Bush 46%, Kerry 45%. Of course, the Zogby polls have been much more consistent than most of the others, never showing Bush with a lead outside the margin error.

And while you’re skimming the Zogby site, I strongly recommend you read the pre-debate column from John Zogby, in which he reaffirms his predictions from last May that Kerry would win in November: “The Race Is Still Kerry’s To Lose]”.

Zogby argues that Bush’s negatives amongst undecided voters are simply too high:

From there we see a startling statistic: only 16% to 20% of undecided voters feel that the President deserves to be re-elected. Forty-percent of this relatively small group feel that it is time for someone new.

To win, Kerry needs to give undecided voters a reason to vote for him. And last Thursday’s debate was an important step.

Remember those bizarre Gallup polls that showed Bush with as much as a 14 point lead? Well guess what… according to their latest, post debate poll, it’s now a dead heat. Not a statistical dead heat, but an actual dead heat: 49% to 49%.

So what’s more fickle, voters or the Gallup Poll?

Meanwhile, as the NY Times reports, voter registration rolls continue to swell, undermining the “likely voter” model used by all the national polls. [As Deadlines Hit, Rolls of Voters Show Big Surge]

In Montgomery County, Pa., the elections staff has been working nights and weekends since the week before Labor Day to process the crush of registrations – some 32,000 since May and counting.

I grew up in Montgomery County, Pa., and I can tell you, this has never happened before. And I can also tell you that it’s not suburban Republicans that are registering in record numbers… they were already registered. It’s Democrats who are driving this surge in Montgomery County, and across the city line in Philadelphia.

More from the NY Times:

It is harder to say what is driving the registration increase in Montgomery County, which is still considered “a Republican town” even though it went for Mr. Gore in 2000 and Bill Clinton before that. One of the wealthiest counties in Pennsylvania, it has had a lot of new building in recent years. But it also has working-class communities and is about 10 percent minority, and the community organizations say they have worked hard to register people here.

Some people registering have lived here for years but have not voted.

“I’ve been too lazy,” said Kurt Saukaitis, 43, who was registering at the county office. He and his new wife, Candy, both have 16-year-old sons. “The thought of a draft is scary,” Mr. Saukaitis said.

It is one thing to oppose the war in Iraq. It’s another to send your own sons to die there.

My stomach turned as I read Thomas Shapley’s column in today’s P-I, describing George Nethercutt’s despicable ads comparing Patty Murray to Osama bin Laden. I don’t know what is more disgusting… that a politician would air such an ad, or that voters are so stupid as to be swayed by them?

This is a sign of a desperate campaign. And a shameless one.

Last week I told you not to pay attention to the polls showing Bush with a substantial lead over Kerry. They lie.

As evidence, I cite the latest the Newsweek poll, taken in the wake of Kerry’s thumping of Bush in Thursday’s debate: Kerry 47%… Bush 45%.

Now, do you really believe that Kerry had a slight but steady lead through most of the summer, and then Bush jumped ahead by 10 points on the basis of his convention, only to see it evaporate entirely after a single debate?

The polls are crap.

One thing I am willing to bet money on… by 2000 standards, this election won’t be close (at least in the popular vote.) Whoever wins is going to win by greater than a five percent spread. And I believe it’s going to be Kerry.