Ken Vogel of the Tacoma News Tribune has done the legwork on the likely Senate candidacy of Safeco CEO Mike McGavick.
With Dino Rossi officially declining to run for U.S. Senate in 2006, leading Republicans are coalescing around Safeco CEO Mike McGavick.
He has remained silent publicly as political speculation has mounted that he’ll emerge as the leading Republican challenger to freshman U.S. Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-Edmonds).
But he’s quietly laid the groundwork for a campaign, making the rounds of GOP leaders in both Washingtons and rounding up endorsements from some of the state’s top Republicans. Some who’ve met with him expect him to declare soon.
While McGavick hasn’t publicly announced his candidacy, he’s certainly learned how to talk like a politician. In an April 19 quarterly earnings report conference call with security analysts, a Lehman Brothers analyst asked him about press reports that he was thinking about running for the Senate. McGavick first assured investors that Safeco was well prepared for succession, whatever the circumstances… and then gave a classic non-denial denial:
Having said that, this is all a bunch of media speculation. It’s been going on since I got here it seems to me, and I kind of regard it that way. When people come to you and say, gee, you have a chance to help the country, you have to be flattered and you have to listen to them. But I tell them all the same thing, that the thing I’m focused on right now is running Safeco and that’s kind of where it stands.
Hmm. Yeah. Well, it apparently wasn’t just “a bunch of media speculation,” as McGavick must have been hard at work lining his ducks up during that time frame. His answer was clearly meant to calm the legitimate concerns of securities analysts over potential instability in Safeco’s leadership, and while his prevarication may not rise to the level of an SEC violation, it speaks volumes about the kind of politician we can expect him to be. McGavick had a legal and ethical responsibility to provide shareholders with accurate information, and I just don’t think he answered the question honestly.
Sounds like a candidate to me.
McGavick recently sent an email to many prominent Republicans, touting his endorsements and seeking more. He claims support from Slade Gorton, Jennifer Dunn, John Carlson, Bill Finkbeiner and others. McGavick’s goal is apparently to lock up endorsements and money early, so as to scare off other potential challengers and thus avoid a primary fight. But according to the TNT, at least one other GOP hopeful, Diane Tebelius, doesn’t sound like she wants to cooperate with this strategy.
Tebelius rejected that reasoning Friday. A primary fight can help each candidate hone a message and allow voters to decide which candidate best represents their views, she said, dismissing McGavick’s list of endorsements.
“The support of a group of people is not the support of voters. You have to earn the voters’ confidence,” said Tebelius, who’s forming an exploratory committee and has been traveling the state for more than a month seeking support.
Pierce County Republican Party Chairman Deryl McCarty supports her and said so do other grass-roots activists and business leaders. If she continues to get that type of feedback, Tebelius said, “then it’s very likely I’m going to run.”
At some point, don’t you think Tebelius is going to tire of faithfully putting all that hard work into the party, only to be screwed over by GOP kingmakers come election time?
Whatever.
Whether the nominee is McGavick, Tebelius, Rick White or HA-exclusive-dark-horse-candidate Rob McKenna, I just don’t think defeating Cantwell will be as easy as the Republican faithful think it will. Apart from Rossi, all other GOP hopefuls trailed Cantwell by double digits in a recent Republican poll… and after a slow start, the Senator now reports a $3 million head start in her campaign account. And it doesn’t really matter who the GOP throws up against her, if she’s smart, Cantwell herself will all but ignore her opponent, choosing to run against Frist, DeLay, Rove, Bush and the right-wing Republican hegemony in DC.
It is true that Cantwell has not been the most visible of senators… mostly because she is simply a policy wonk, genuinely uncomfortable with shameless self-promotion. She is also a true moderate on most issues, and as such simply can’t generate exciting headlines like some of her more liberal (and, um… media savvy) colleagues. But her moderate politics and understated style work both ways, making her very difficult to attack. As tough as it is for Cantwell to generate real passion within some progressives, it will be equally tough for her opponent to generate passion against her, outside of the core Republican base.
Democrats will rally to Cantwell because they understand what is at stake nationally, and WA’s moderates and independents who gave both Patty Murray and John Kerry decisive victories last November, will need to be given a good reason to dump Cantwell in 2006.
I’m not sure a multimillionaire Safeco CEO can give them that reason.
Goldy:
“Whether the nominee is McGavick, Tebelius, Rick White or HA-exclusive-dark-horse-candidate Rob McKenna, I just don’t think defeating Cantwell will be as easy as the Republican faithful think it will.”
Won’t be easy, but she’s definitely vulnerable. That being said, Republicans don’t have a very deep bench in WA. I’d say because they relied too long on old war horses like Slade Gorton.
“And it doesn’t really matter who the GOP throws up against her, if she’s smart, Cantwell herself will all but ignore her opponent, choosing to run against Frist, DeLay, Rove, Bush and the right-wing Republican hegemony in DC.”
If she’s smart she’ll run on her record. Wait, she doesn’t really have one? You might be right Goldy, trying to distract the voters from the real issues that affect them might be a good political strategy, for Seattle. Not sure how running for the “I Hate Bush” party will work in the suburbs and rural Washington. That strategy failed in 2004 pretty miserably across the country. People might be getting tired of it.
In addition, the Reps are pretty energized after the gubernatorial contest. We’ll see if that holds for another year.
Goldie: According to the conservative commenters on your blog you are always wrong and, furthermore, you deliberatly distort the truth in an insidious and maybe even somewhat insane manner. Let me just ask you flat out ,Goldie: WHY OH WHY ARE YOU LIKE THIS?
We knocked her down once (rick white, when she was an incumbent comgressman), we can do it again.
I noticed that the Chair of the GOP has recently apologized for the
Archive » Southern Strategy
Their tactics over the years have caused a great deal of damage to society and to individuals. Check out my blog for some suggestions as to how they can make up the damage they have caused, as if they would really want to.
Republicans always look at the bright side, don’t they? They see Rossi’s close loss and think they’re gaining statewide, overlooking the shellacking Nethercutt took and the fact that they lost seats in both houses of the Legislature.
Maria Cantwell has laid down a solid record (as much as one can in the minority). She’s a good fit for the aggregate politics of this state. Just as important, as long as Bush is in the White House and First and DeLay are running Congress, it would take a major scandal for Washington to elect a Republican as Senator.
THP@5
Yes, a scandal like the last stolen election.
Delay, Cheney, will be here in full force as they were for the big victory of Reichert’s. The republicans run MUCH better campaigns than democrats do…and the pocketbooks will fill quickly as Rove, etc. will encourage the faithfull to create a 60-vote majority for the Rs in the senate to ensure all of their leglisation gets passed. Get ready.
Has McGavick taken a position on I-912?
I think Mike McGavick would be extremely vulnerable to negative advertising by Cantwell and the Democrats. Take a look at the extremely small percentage of premiums charged to homeowners that Safeco Ins Co of America pays out in insured losses:
http://www.insurance.wa.gov/pu.....tPeril.pdf
Out of every dollar homeowners pay in premiums to Safeco, only 39.02 cents are returned in the form of payments for insured losses. This is far below the statewide average of 48.18 cents, and one of the lowest payment rates of major insurance companies in this state.
Either Safeco charges its homeowners a lot more in premiums than the average company, or pays out much less in losses on claims filed by homeowners — or both. Certainly, with such a low payout rate, Safeco is an extremely profitable company and its boss is undoubtedly a well-compensated man.
Personally, I have my homeowner’s insurance with PEMCO, which at a payout rate of 63.97 cents per dollar of premiums is by far the best homeowner’s company out of the top 10 doing business in Washington. Maybe PEMCO executives give more money to Democrats, and Safeco executives give more money to Republicans, but I have to based my insurance decisions on personal economics.
In any event, by the time the Democrats get through with their negative advertising against McGavick, both Mike and Safeco will be far worse off in the public perception. McGavick will be seen as someone who got rich by gouging homeowners, and many homeowners will be considering changing their policies to other companies.
Didn’t Maria win last time cuz of the help of KCRE?
PEMCO’s CEO, Stan McNaughton, is very conservative, but does contribute to Democrats as part of his business obligations. He’s less political than his late father was.
Hmmm … a rich insurance company CEO … sounds like just the kind of populist the GOPers need to connect with ordinary folks. Or how about Tebelius, Chris Rants’ legal mouthpiece … now there’s another Republican populist. Yep, the GOP is gonna appeal to the common bunny ….
Reply to 3
“We knocked her down once (rick white, when she was an incumbent comgressman), we can do it again.”
That’s brave talk from a bunch that couldn’t even beat the most unpopular governor in the country.
THP @ 5
Maria Cantwell has laid […]
Who?
This state is beginning to see the light and finally turn toward it. Big time change is not far off.
@ 1
If she’s smart she’ll run on her record. Wait, she doesn’t really have one? You might be right Goldy, trying to distract the voters from the real issues that affect them might be a good political strategy
The Bush administration is sure giving it a good try.
Didn’t Maria win last time cuz of the help of KCRE?
You are correct. Remember Democrats cheat every election. We were unable to overcome the fraud in that election as well.
Reply to 6
Keep telling yoursel that, Chuckie. Have another beer. Get good and drunk. Try to believe …
Until Safeco Field presents a winning team, McGavick is gonna have a losing season.
You heard it here first.
I’m not sure a multimillionaire Safeco CEO can give them that reason
How about a multiillionaire that actually is one, rather than one who pledges inflated stock, then has to go begging Emily’s list for money (despite saying she was immune to outside forces cuz she was rich)
Yeah right, she’s bought and paid for by special interests. Imagine if you were basically broke except for your sponsors; you’d vote their way too.
Wierd; neither Maria nor Patty seem to care about the minority GOP population, not even faking concern. Guess political diversity is dangerous.
Donnageddon @ 19
That could be another negative psychological factor. Safeco Field. A lot of people have resentment over the public funding of that private stadium, and the massive giveaway to the Mariners. It cost Slade Gorton a lot of support, and probably resulted in a large percentage of the Libertarian vote in 2000 — I believe that candidate got about 60,000 votes when Gorton lost by only about 2,000 votes.
Since the Mariners are in the toilet this year, and have a good chance of being in the toilet next year, this won’t be so helpful for the Safeco name.
And there should be a Libertarian on the ballot next fall as well. The GOP has pushed so hard to eliminate the top two system. Now there is the reward of spolier candidates on the general election ballot, and election by mere plurality (instead of a majority) — which will ensure that the GOP always loses close races in this state.
THP @ 5
“Maria Cantwell has laid down a solid record (as much as one can in the minority).”
What is the solid record she has laid down? Other than toeing the Democratic line? Also, she was in the majority for nearly 1/3 of her term, so the excuse she was “in the minority” really isn’t true.
rwb @ 16
“The Bush administration is sure giving it a good try.”
Seems like you straying from the topic at hand. You didn’t address the substance of any of my comments. Instead, you attempt to turn a discussion about the 2006 Senate race into a criticism of the Bush Administration. You guys just can’t get Bush out of your heads can you?
Question is, do Libs jump higher/faster for Rove or DeLay; who yanks their chains worse?
Comment on 20
“Wierd; neither Maria nor Patty seem to care about the minority GOP population, not even faking concern. Guess political diversity is dangerous.”
Oh, good grief! Now Right-Idiot expects Democrats to vote for the neo-nut agenda??? We elected them so we’d have senators who DON’T inflict the right wing ideology on the country, dummy!
Far less than half the voters actually support what the neocons want. Barely half votes Republican. Yet the Republicans went ahead and tried to impose their extremist policies on the entire U.S.A. … no negotiation, no compromise … and you accuse US of being inflexible?
Go fuck yourself, WrongAss.
23
Dunno. How does one choose between Gary Ridgeway or Ted Bundy? Not a perfect analogy, but not all that far off either.
With apologies to Gary Ridgeway, who killed only 49 people. The neocons must be over 100,000 by now.
RR @ 24, 25, 26
Wow, you are amazing. Do you want to be taken seriously? Your hate and profanity strewn rhetoric makes that impossible. It’s hate speech like this from guys like Howard Dean, that is crippling the Dems nationally. Keep it up and you’ll just turn off the moderates and drive them to the Republicans.
Oh, good grief! Now Right-Idiot expects Democrats to vote for the neo-nut agenda??? We elected them so we’d have senators who DON’T inflict the right wing ideology on the country, dummy!
Yep Roger… and we voted for George Bush to appoint the RIGHT kind of people to the bench. To all you donks who feel differently I got two words for you… FUCK YOU!
Hmmm … a rich insurance company CEO … sounds like just the kind of populist the GOPers need to connect with ordinary folks.
As opposed to Millionaire Maria Cantwell right? Yea, what a populist to connect with the ordinary folk.
With apologies to Gary Ridgeway, who killed only 49 people. The neocons must be over 100,000 by now.
Well lets see, Clintons uncaring about the Rwanda genocide put the so-shia-list (aka liberal) death toll at over 2 million dead. Neocons would have to step it up a damn sight in order to catch those numbers!
@ 28
Ahh.. The kind of “intellectually rigorous” conclusions one might expect from Kool-Aid drunk Bush supporters. Check it out CF @ 27!
@ 30
A bombing of Iran and the situation in Darfur might help.
John @ 28
I don’t support the profane attacks by RUFUS or anyone else. You lefties do a good enough job of pointing them out so I don’t have to. If you are saying I should, then you should be in agreement with me with in admonishing Roger.
I responded to Roger because he is so profilic in posting and is especially vitriolic, often times without provocation. Comparing any politicians in the U.S. to serial killers seems espcially uncalled for and below the belt. In addition, his rhetoric seems to mimic that of Howard Dean, and other prominent Democrats. I thought the Democratic Party stood for tolerance and inclusion. Why don’t they start advocating policies that demonstrate those values instead of hating?
I consider myself a moderate democrate, but I’m intrigued by McGavick (though I think he’d make a better govenor than senator). He’s got great ideas to make Washington more business friendly. I just hope he has moderate social position. I was equally intrigued by Dino Rossi until I heard that he favored creationism over evolution.