Obama versus Santorum using polls from 20-Jan-12 to 20-Feb-12


Alabama

2004 Result: 36.84% Kerry, 62.46% Bush.

2008 Result: 38.74% Obama, 60.32% McCain.

9 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Santorum assumed to win all elections.



Alaska

2004 Result: 35.52% Kerry, 61.07% Bush.

2008 Result: 37.89% Obama, 59.43% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Santorum assumed to win all elections.



Arizona

2004 Result: 44.40% Kerry, 54.87% Bush.

2008 Result: 45.11% Obama, 53.63% McCain.

11 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 95.6% wins (95,573 wins ), Santorum: 4.4% wins (4,427 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Santorum Diff
Rocky Mountain 05-Jan-12 09-Jan-12 553 4.3 43.0 34.0 O+9.0


Arkansas

2004 Result: 44.55% Kerry, 54.31% Bush.

2008 Result: 38.86% Obama, 58.72% McCain.

6 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Santorum assumed to win all elections.



California

2004 Result: 54.31% Kerry, 44.36% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.01% Obama, 36.95% McCain.

55 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Santorum: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Santorum Diff
SurveyUSA 08-Feb-12 10-Feb-12 2088 2.1 61.0 29.0 O+32.0


Colorado

2004 Result: 47.02% Kerry, 51.69% Bush.

2008 Result: 53.66% Obama, 44.71% McCain.

9 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Obama assumed to win all elections.



Connecticut

2004 Result: 54.31% Kerry, 43.95% Bush.

2008 Result: 60.59% Obama, 38.22% McCain.

7 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Obama assumed to win all elections.



Delaware

2004 Result: 53.35% Kerry, 45.75% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.94% Obama, 36.95% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Obama assumed to win all elections.



D.C.

2004 Result: 89.18% Kerry, 9.34% Bush.

2008 Result: 92.46% Obama, 6.53% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Obama assumed to win all elections.



Florida

2004 Result: 47.09% Kerry, 52.10% Bush.

2008 Result: 51.03% Obama, 48.22% McCain.

29 Electoral votes.

4 polls

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Santorum: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Santorum Diff
Rasmussen 09-Feb-12 09-Feb-12 500 4.5 47.0 46.0 O+1.0
Marist 25-Jan-12 27-Jan-12 2795 1.9 50.0 35.0 O+15.0
Mason-Dixon 24-Jan-12 26-Jan-12 800 3.5 50.0 39.0 O+11.0
Quinnipiac 19-Jan-12 23-Jan-12 1518 2.5 49.0 40.0 O+9.0


Georgia

2004 Result: 41.37% Kerry, 57.97% Bush.

2008 Result: 46.99% Obama, 52.20% McCain.

16 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Santorum assumed to win all elections.



Hawaii

2004 Result: 54.01% Kerry, 45.26% Bush.

2008 Result: 71.85% Obama, 26.58% McCain.

4 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Obama assumed to win all elections.



Idaho

2004 Result: 30.26% Kerry, 68.38% Bush.

2008 Result: 36.10% Obama, 61.53% McCain.

4 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Santorum assumed to win all elections.



Illinois

2004 Result: 54.82% Kerry, 44.48% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.92% Obama, 36.78% McCain.

20 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Obama assumed to win all elections.



Indiana

2004 Result: 39.26% Kerry, 59.94% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.95% Obama, 48.91% McCain.

11 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Santorum assumed to win all elections.



Iowa

2004 Result: 49.23% Kerry, 49.90% Bush.

2008 Result: 53.93% Obama, 44.39% McCain.

6 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 20.2% wins (20,202 wins ), Santorum: 79.8% wins (79,798 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Santorum Diff
Iowa Poll 12-Feb-12 15-Feb-12 800 3.5 44.0 48.0 S+4.0


Kansas

2004 Result: 36.62% Kerry, 62.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.65% Obama, 56.61% McCain.

6 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Santorum assumed to win all elections.



Kentucky

2004 Result: 39.69% Kerry, 59.55% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.17% Obama, 57.40% McCain.

8 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Santorum assumed to win all elections.



Louisiana

2004 Result: 42.22% Kerry, 56.72% Bush.

2008 Result: 39.93% Obama, 58.56% McCain.

8 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Santorum assumed to win all elections.



Maine

2004 Result: 53.57% Kerry, 44.58% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.67% Obama, 40.36% McCain.

4 Electoral votes. Maine allocates an elector to the winner of each congressional district, and two more electoral votes for the state-wide popular vote winner. No district-level polls have been released to date.

0 polls

Obama assumed to win all elections.



Maryland

2004 Result: 55.91% Kerry, 42.93% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.92% Obama, 36.47% McCain.

10 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Obama assumed to win all elections.



Massachusetts

2004 Result: 61.94% Kerry, 36.78% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.80% Obama, 35.99% McCain.

11 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Santorum: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Santorum Diff
Suffolk 11-Feb-12 15-Feb-12 500 --- 59.0 31.5 O+27.5


Michigan

2004 Result: 51.23% Kerry, 47.81% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.43% Obama, 40.96% McCain.

16 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 97.5% wins (97,508 wins ), Santorum: 2.5% wins (2,492 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Santorum Diff
PPP 10-Feb-12 12-Feb-12 560 4.1 50.0 39.0 O+11.0


Minnesota

2004 Result: 51.09% Kerry, 47.61% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.06% Obama, 43.82% McCain.

10 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Obama: 100.0% wins (99,995 wins ), Santorum: 0.0% wins (5 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Santorum Diff
SurveyUSA 31-Jan-12 02-Feb-12 542 4.3 51.1 31.5 O+19.6
PPP 21-Jan-12 22-Jan-12 1236 2.8 52.0 40.0 O+12.0


Mississippi

2004 Result: 39.75% Kerry, 59.44% Bush.

2008 Result: 43.00% Obama, 56.18% McCain.

6 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Santorum assumed to win all elections.



Missouri

2004 Result: 46.10% Kerry, 53.30% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.29% Obama, 49.43% McCain.

10 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 70.9% wins (70,860 wins ), Santorum: 29.1% wins (29,140 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Santorum Diff
PPP 27-Jan-12 29-Jan-12 582 4.1 47.0 44.0 O+3.0


Montana

2004 Result: 38.56% Kerry, 59.07% Bush.

2008 Result: 47.25% Obama, 49.52% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Santorum assumed to win all elections.



Nebraska

2004 Result: 32.68% Kerry, 65.90% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.60% Obama, 56.53% McCain.

2 Electoral votes. Nebraska allocates an elector to the winner of each congressional district, and two more electoral votes for the state-wide popular vote winner.

0 polls

Santorum assumed to win all elections.



Nebraska-1

2004 Result: 36.00% Kerry, 63.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.09% Obama, 44.34% McCain.

1 Electoral vote.

0 polls

Santorum assumed to win all elections.



Nebraska-2

2004 Result: 38.00% Kerry, 60.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 48.76% Obama, 49.96% McCain.

1 Electoral vote.

0 polls

Santorum assumed to win all elections.



Nebraska-3

2004 Result: 24.00% Kerry, 75.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 29.63% Obama, 68.64% McCain.

1 Electoral vote.

0 polls

Santorum assumed to win all elections.



Nevada

2004 Result: 47.88% Kerry, 50.47% Bush.

2008 Result: 55.15% Obama, 42.65% McCain.

6 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 100.0% wins (99,980 wins ), Santorum: 0.0% wins (20 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Santorum Diff
U Nevada 12-Dec-11 20-Dec-11 600 4.0 49.3 30.9 O+18.4


New Hampshire

2004 Result: 50.24% Kerry, 48.87% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.13% Obama, 44.52% McCain.

4 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 100.0% wins (99,975 wins ), Santorum: 0.0% wins (25 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Santorum Diff
U NH 25-Jan-12 02-Feb-12 495 4.4 56.0 35.0 O+21.0


New Jersey

2004 Result: 52.92% Kerry, 46.24% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.27% Obama, 41.70% McCain.

14 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Obama assumed to win all elections.



New Mexico

2004 Result: 49.05% Kerry, 49.84% Bush.

2008 Result: 56.91% Obama, 41.78% McCain.

5 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 99.8% wins (99,788 wins ), Santorum: 0.2% wins (212 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Santorum Diff
Rasmussen 14-Feb-12 14-Feb-12 500 4.5 55.0 37.0 O+18.0


New York

2004 Result: 58.37% Kerry, 40.08% Bush.

2008 Result: 62.88% Obama, 36.03% McCain.

29 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Santorum: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Santorum Diff
Quinnipiac 08-Feb-12 13-Feb-12 1233 2.8 53.0 35.0 O+18.0
Siena 29-Jan-12 01-Feb-12 807 3.4 65.0 28.0 O+37.0


North Carolina

2004 Result: 43.58% Kerry, 56.02% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.69% Obama, 49.36% McCain.

15 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 67.5% wins (67,506 wins ), Santorum: 32.5% wins (32,494 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Santorum Diff
PPP 03-Feb-12 05-Feb-12 1052 3.0 48.0 46.0 O+2.0


North Dakota

2004 Result: 35.50% Kerry, 62.86% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.62% Obama, 53.25% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Santorum assumed to win all elections.



Ohio

2004 Result: 48.71% Kerry, 50.81% Bush.

2008 Result: 51.50% Obama, 46.91% McCain.

18 Electoral votes.

4 polls

Obama: 94.6% wins (94,562 wins ), Santorum: 5.4% wins (5,438 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Santorum Diff
Fox News 11-Feb-12 13-Feb-12 505 4.5 40.0 43.0 S+3.0
Quinnipiac 07-Feb-12 12-Feb-12 1421 2.6 47.0 41.0 O+6.0
Rasmussen 08-Feb-12 08-Feb-12 500 4.5 44.0 44.0 0.0
PPP 28-Jan-12 29-Jan-12 820 3.4 48.0 42.0 O+6.0


Oklahoma

2004 Result: 34.43% Kerry, 65.57% Bush.

2008 Result: 34.35% Obama, 65.64% McCain.

7 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Santorum assumed to win all elections.



Oregon

2004 Result: 51.35% Kerry, 47.19% Bush.

2008 Result: 56.75% Obama, 40.40% McCain.

7 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Obama assumed to win all elections.



Pennsylvania

2004 Result: 50.92% Kerry, 48.42% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.64% Obama, 44.29% McCain.

20 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 75.3% wins (75,299 wins ), Santorum: 24.7% wins (24,701 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Santorum Diff
Susquehanna 02-Feb-12 06-Feb-12 500 3.5 47.0 43.0 O+4.0


Rhode Island

2004 Result: 59.42% Kerry, 38.67% Bush.

2008 Result: 63.13% Obama, 35.21% McCain.

4 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Obama assumed to win all elections.



South Carolina

2004 Result: 40.90% Kerry, 57.98% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.90% Obama, 53.87% McCain.

9 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Santorum assumed to win all elections.



South Dakota

2004 Result: 38.44% Kerry, 59.91% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.75% Obama, 53.16% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Santorum assumed to win all elections.



Tennessee

2004 Result: 42.53% Kerry, 56.80% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.83% Obama, 56.90% McCain.

11 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Santorum assumed to win all elections.



Texas

2004 Result: 38.22% Kerry, 61.09% Bush.

2008 Result: 43.68% Obama, 55.45% McCain.

38 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 0.8% wins (797 wins ), Santorum: 99.2% wins (99,203 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Santorum Diff
U Texas 08-Feb-12 15-Feb-12 529 4.3 37.0 51.0 S+14.0


Utah

2004 Result: 26.00% Kerry, 71.54% Bush.

2008 Result: 34.41% Obama, 62.58% McCain.

6 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Santorum assumed to win all elections.



Vermont

2004 Result: 58.94% Kerry, 38.80% Bush.

2008 Result: 67.44% Obama, 30.44% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Obama assumed to win all elections.



Virginia

2004 Result: 45.48% Kerry, 53.68% Bush.

2008 Result: 52.63% Obama, 46.33% McCain.

13 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 99.0% wins (99,019 wins ), Santorum: 1.0% wins (981 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Santorum Diff
Quinnipiac 01-Feb-12 06-Feb-12 1544 2.5 49.0 41.0 O+8.0


Washington

2004 Result: 52.82% Kerry, 45.64% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.65% Obama, 40.48% McCain.

12 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 99.2% wins (99,155 wins ), Santorum: 0.8% wins (845 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Santorum Diff
SurveyUSA 13-Feb-12 15-Feb-12 572 4.2 51.1 38.2 O+13.0


West Virginia

2004 Result: 43.20% Kerry, 56.06% Bush.

2008 Result: 42.59% Obama, 55.71% McCain.

5 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Santorum assumed to win all elections.



Wisconsin

2004 Result: 49.70% Kerry, 49.32% Bush.

2008 Result: 56.22% Obama, 42.31% McCain.

10 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Obama assumed to win all elections.



Wyoming

2004 Result: 29.07% Kerry, 68.86% Bush.

2008 Result: 32.54% Obama, 64.78% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Santorum assumed to win all elections.