Clinton versus Trump using polls from 03-Oct-15 to 03-Oct-16


Alabama

2004 Result: 36.84% Kerry, 62.46% Bush.

2008 Result: 38.74% Obama, 60.32% McCain.

2012 Result: 38.36% Obama, 60.55% Romney.

9 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
WKRG 19-Jul-16 19-Jul-16 4100 2.0 33.0 57.0 T+24.0


Alaska

2004 Result: 35.52% Kerry, 61.07% Bush.

2008 Result: 37.89% Obama, 59.43% McCain.

2012 Result: 40.81% Obama, 54.80% Romney.

3 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Clinton: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Morning Consult 01-Apr-16 30-Jun-16 519 4.3 31.5 52.5 T+21.0
Morning Consult 01-Jan-16 07-Apr-16 384 5.0 33.2 48.0 T+14.8


Arizona

2004 Result: 44.40% Kerry, 54.87% Bush.

2008 Result: 45.11% Obama, 53.63% McCain.

2012 Result: 44.59% Obama, 53.65% Romney.

11 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Clinton: 29.0% wins (28,958 wins ), Trump: 71.0% wins (71,042 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Data Orbital 20-Sep-16 22-Sep-16 550 4.1 38.0 40.0 T+2.0
NBC/WSJ/Marist 06-Sep-16 08-Sep-16 704 3.8 38.0 40.0 T+2.0


Arkansas

2004 Result: 44.55% Kerry, 54.31% Bush.

2008 Result: 38.86% Obama, 58.72% McCain.

2012 Result: 36.88% Obama, 60.57% Romney.

6 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Clinton: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Hendrix Col 15-Sep-16 17-Sep-16 831 3.4 34.0 55.0 T+21.0
Emerson 09-Sep-16 13-Sep-16 600 3.9 29.0 57.0 T+28.0


California

2004 Result: 54.31% Kerry, 44.36% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.01% Obama, 36.95% McCain.

2012 Result: 60.24% Obama, 37.12% Romney.

55 Electoral votes.

5 polls

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
SurveyUSA 27-Sep-16 28-Sep-16 732 --- 59.0 33.0 C+26.0
PPIC 09-Sep-16 18-Sep-16 1055 4.5 47.0 31.0 C+16.0
Field 07-Sep-16 13-Sep-16 1426 --- 50.0 33.0 C+17.0
SurveyUSA 08-Sep-16 11-Sep-16 678 3.8 57.2 32.3 C+24.8
USC-LA Times 01-Sep-16 08-Sep-16 4212 2.0 49.0 29.0 C+20.0


Colorado

2004 Result: 47.02% Kerry, 51.69% Bush.

2008 Result: 53.66% Obama, 44.71% McCain.

2012 Result: 51.49% Obama, 46.13% Romney.

9 Electoral votes.

7 polls

Clinton: 83.7% wins (83,694 wins ), Trump: 16.3% wins (16,306 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Monmouth 29-Sep-16 02-Oct-16 400 4.9 49.0 38.0 C+11.0
Keating 27-Sep-16 29-Sep-16 602 4.0 44.0 33.0 C+11.0
CNN/ORC 20-Sep-16 25-Sep-16 784 3.5 41.0 42.0 T+1.0
Gravis 22-Sep-16 23-Sep-16 799 3.5 37.0 41.0 T+4.0
Quinnipiac 13-Sep-16 21-Sep-16 644 3.9 44.0 42.0 C+2.0
CO Mesa U 14-Sep-16 18-Sep-16 350 6.3 41.0 34.0 C+7.0
Emerson 09-Sep-16 13-Sep-16 600 3.9 38.0 42.0 T+4.0


Connecticut

2004 Result: 54.31% Kerry, 43.95% Bush.

2008 Result: 60.59% Obama, 38.22% McCain.

2012 Result: 58.06% Obama, 40.73% Romney.

7 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Emerson 02-Sep-16 05-Sep-16 1000 3.0 49.8 34.9 C+14.9


Delaware

2004 Result: 53.35% Kerry, 45.75% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.94% Obama, 36.95% McCain.

2012 Result: 58.61% Obama, 39.98% Romney.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 98.5% wins (98,496 wins ), Trump: 1.5% wins (1,504 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Fairleigh Dickinson 20-Jul-16 24-Jul-16 715 4.1 42.0 32.0 C+10.0


D.C.

2004 Result: 89.18% Kerry, 9.34% Bush.

2008 Result: 92.46% Obama, 6.53% McCain.

2012 Result: 90.91% Obama, 7.28% Romney.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Morning Consult 01-Apr-16 30-Jun-16 1317 2.7 65.7 20.2 C+45.5


Florida

2004 Result: 47.09% Kerry, 52.10% Bush.

2008 Result: 51.03% Obama, 48.22% McCain.

2012 Result: 50.01% Obama, 49.13% Romney.

29 Electoral votes.

10 polls

Clinton: 62.9% wins (62,922 wins ), Trump: 37.1% wins (37,078 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Quinnipiac 27-Sep-16 02-Oct-16 545 4.2 46.0 41.0 C+5.0
Opinion Savvy 28-Sep-16 29-Sep-16 619 4.0 46.5 46.4 C+0.2
Mason-Dixon 27-Sep-16 29-Sep-16 820 3.5 46.0 42.0 C+4.0
Suffolk 19-Sep-16 21-Sep-16 500 4.4 43.6 45.0 T+1.4
FL CoC 15-Sep-16 20-Sep-16 617 4.0 43.0 41.0 C+2.0
Monmouth 16-Sep-16 19-Sep-16 400 4.9 46.0 41.0 C+5.0
Siena 10-Sep-16 14-Sep-16 867 3.3 41.0 40.0 C+1.0
CNN/ORC 07-Sep-16 12-Sep-16 788 3.5 44.0 47.0 T+3.0
JMC Analytics 07-Sep-16 08-Sep-16 781 3.5 42.0 46.0 T+4.0
PPP 04-Sep-16 06-Sep-16 744 3.6 43.0 44.0 T+1.0


Georgia

2004 Result: 41.37% Kerry, 57.97% Bush.

2008 Result: 46.99% Obama, 52.20% McCain.

2012 Result: 45.48% Obama, 53.30% Romney.

16 Electoral votes.

7 polls

Clinton: 1.5% wins (1,490 wins ), Trump: 98.5% wins (98,510 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Landmark 21-Sep-16 22-Sep-16 600 4.0 42.9 46.5 T+3.6
JMC 20-Sep-16 22-Sep-16 600 4.0 38.0 44.0 T+6.0
Quinnipiac 13-Sep-16 21-Sep-16 638 3.9 40.0 47.0 T+7.0
Monmouth 15-Sep-16 18-Sep-16 401 4.9 42.0 45.0 T+3.0
Opinion Savvy 14-Sep-16 14-Sep-16 568 4.1 42.0 46.0 T+4.0
Emerson 09-Sep-16 13-Sep-16 600 3.9 39.0 45.0 T+6.0
NBC/WSJ/Marist 06-Sep-16 08-Sep-16 649 3.8 42.0 44.0 T+2.0


Hawaii

2004 Result: 54.01% Kerry, 45.26% Bush.

2008 Result: 71.85% Obama, 26.58% McCain.

2012 Result: 70.55% Obama, 27.84% Romney.

4 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Morning Consult 01-Apr-16 30-Jun-16 999 3.1 49.6 30.5 C+19.1


Idaho

2004 Result: 30.26% Kerry, 68.38% Bush.

2008 Result: 36.10% Obama, 61.53% McCain.

2012 Result: 32.62% Obama, 64.53% Romney.

4 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Dan Jones 18-Aug-16 31-Aug-16 602 4.0 23.0 44.0 T+21.0


Illinois

2004 Result: 54.82% Kerry, 44.48% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.92% Obama, 36.78% McCain.

2012 Result: 57.60% Obama, 40.73% Romney.

20 Electoral votes.

4 polls

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Victory 21-Sep-16 24-Sep-16 1200 2.8 48.6 35.1 C+13.5
Emerson 19-Sep-16 21-Sep-16 700 3.6 45.7 39.9 C+5.9
Loras Col 13-Sep-16 16-Sep-16 600 4.0 43.0 30.2 C+12.8
WeAskAmerica 12-Sep-16 12-Sep-16 955 3.2 51.2 32.7 C+18.5


Indiana

2004 Result: 39.26% Kerry, 59.94% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.95% Obama, 48.91% McCain.

2012 Result: 43.93% Obama, 54.13% Romney.

11 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 8.6% wins (8,560 wins ), Trump: 91.4% wins (91,440 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
WTHR/Howey 06-Sep-16 08-Sep-16 600 4.0 36.0 43.0 T+7.0


Iowa

2004 Result: 49.23% Kerry, 49.90% Bush.

2008 Result: 53.93% Obama, 44.39% McCain.

2012 Result: 51.99% Obama, 46.18% Romney.

6 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Clinton: 6.5% wins (6,502 wins ), Trump: 93.5% wins (93,498 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Loras Col 20-Sep-16 22-Sep-16 491 4.4 38.3 37.7 C+0.6
Quinnipiac 13-Sep-16 21-Sep-16 612 4.0 37.0 44.0 T+7.0
Monmouth 12-Sep-16 14-Sep-16 404 4.9 37.0 45.0 T+8.0


Kansas

2004 Result: 36.62% Kerry, 62.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.65% Obama, 56.61% McCain.

2012 Result: 37.99% Obama, 59.71% Romney.

6 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 1.7% wins (1,685 wins ), Trump: 98.3% wins (98,315 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
SurveyUSA 06-Sep-16 11-Sep-16 595 4.1 36.1 47.5 T+11.4


Kentucky

2004 Result: 39.69% Kerry, 59.55% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.17% Obama, 57.40% McCain.

2012 Result: 37.80% Obama, 60.49% Romney.

8 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 1.4% wins (1,374 wins ), Trump: 98.6% wins (98,626 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Harper 31-Jul-16 01-Aug-16 500 4.4 36.0 49.0 T+13.0


Louisiana

2004 Result: 42.22% Kerry, 56.72% Bush.

2008 Result: 39.93% Obama, 58.56% McCain.

2012 Result: 40.58% Obama, 57.78% Romney.

8 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Clinton: 0.0% wins (28 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (99,972 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
JMC 22-Sep-16 24-Sep-16 905 3.3 35.0 45.0 T+10.0
SMOR 15-Sep-16 17-Sep-16 500 4.0 32.6 48.9 T+16.3


Maine

2004 Result: 53.57% Kerry, 44.58% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.67% Obama, 40.36% McCain.

2012 Result: 56.27% Obama, 40.98% Romney.

2 Electoral votes. Maine allocates an elector to the winner of each congressional district, and two more electoral votes for the state-wide popular vote winner.

3 polls

Clinton: 98.2% wins (98,234 wins ), Trump: 1.8% wins (1,766 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
UNH 15-Sep-16 21-Sep-16 513 4.3 42.0 37.0 C+5.0
SurveyUSA 04-Sep-16 10-Sep-16 779 3.6 42.4 39.2 C+3.2
Emerson 02-Sep-16 05-Sep-16 800 3.4 43.6 34.9 C+8.6


Maine-1

2004 Result: 43.00% Kerry, 55.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 60.51% Obama, 37.69% McCain.

2012 Result: 59.57% Obama, 38.18% Romney.

1 Electoral vote.

3 polls

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
UNH 15-Sep-16 21-Sep-16 247 4.3 50.0 28.0 C+22.0
SurveyUSA 04-Sep-16 10-Sep-16 382 --- 48.4 31.4 C+17.0
Emerson 02-Sep-16 05-Sep-16 404 --- 52.0 30.0 C+22.0


Maine-2

2004 Result: 46.00% Kerry, 52.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.61% Obama, 43.35% McCain.

2012 Result: 52.94% Obama, 44.38% Romney.

1 Electoral vote.

3 polls

Clinton: 1.3% wins (1,250 wins ), Trump: 98.8% wins (98,750 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
UNH 15-Sep-16 21-Sep-16 231 4.3 34.0 48.0 T+14.0
SurveyUSA 04-Sep-16 10-Sep-16 397 --- 36.5 46.9 T+10.3
Emerson 02-Sep-16 05-Sep-16 399 --- 36.3 40.6 T+4.3


Maryland

2004 Result: 55.91% Kerry, 42.93% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.92% Obama, 36.47% McCain.

2012 Result: 61.97% Obama, 35.90% Romney.

10 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Goucher 17-Sep-16 20-Sep-16 514 4.3 58.0 25.0 C+33.0


Massachusetts

2004 Result: 61.94% Kerry, 36.78% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.80% Obama, 35.99% McCain.

2012 Result: 60.65% Obama, 37.51% Romney.

11 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
WBUR 07-Sep-16 10-Sep-16 506 4.4 54.0 28.0 C+26.0
Emerson 03-Sep-16 05-Sep-16 500 4.3 49.9 33.3 C+16.6


Michigan

2004 Result: 51.23% Kerry, 47.81% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.43% Obama, 40.96% McCain.

2012 Result: 54.21% Obama, 44.71% Romney.

16 Electoral votes.

4 polls

Clinton: 99.3% wins (99,297 wins ), Trump: 0.7% wins (703 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Detroit News 27-Sep-16 28-Sep-16 600 4.0 42.0 35.0 C+7.0
Mitchell 27-Sep-16 27-Sep-16 1956 2.2 45.8 41.2 C+4.6
EPIC-MRA 10-Sep-16 13-Sep-16 600 4.0 38.0 35.0 C+3.0
Mitchell 06-Sep-16 07-Sep-16 940 3.2 45.0 39.0 C+6.0


Minnesota

2004 Result: 51.09% Kerry, 47.61% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.06% Obama, 43.82% McCain.

2012 Result: 52.65% Obama, 44.96% Romney.

10 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Clinton: 96.0% wins (95,992 wins ), Trump: 4.0% wins (4,008 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
SurveyUSA 16-Sep-16 20-Sep-16 625 4.0 45.9 39.0 C+6.9
Mason-Dixon 12-Sep-16 14-Sep-16 625 4.0 44.0 38.0 C+6.0


Mississippi

2004 Result: 39.75% Kerry, 59.44% Bush.

2008 Result: 43.00% Obama, 56.18% McCain.

2012 Result: 43.79% Obama, 55.29% Romney.

6 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.1% wins (87 wins ), Trump: 99.9% wins (99,913 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Magellan 11-Aug-16 11-Aug-16 1084 2.9 39.0 52.0 T+13.0


Missouri

2004 Result: 46.10% Kerry, 53.30% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.29% Obama, 49.43% McCain.

2012 Result: 44.38% Obama, 53.76% Romney.

10 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Clinton: 0.1% wins (56 wins ), Trump: 99.9% wins (99,944 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Remington 26-Sep-16 27-Sep-16 1279 3.0 39.0 49.0 T+10.0
Emerson 09-Sep-16 13-Sep-16 600 3.9 34.0 47.0 T+13.0


Montana

2004 Result: 38.56% Kerry, 59.07% Bush.

2008 Result: 47.25% Obama, 49.52% McCain.

2012 Result: 41.70% Obama, 55.35% Romney.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.2% wins (189 wins ), Trump: 99.8% wins (99,811 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Morning Consult 01-Apr-16 30-Jun-16 1421 2.6 35.8 45.3 T+9.5


Nebraska

2004 Result: 32.68% Kerry, 65.90% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.60% Obama, 56.53% McCain.

2012 Result: 38.03% Obama, 59.80% Romney.

2 Electoral votes. Nebraska allocates an elector to the winner of each congressional district, and two more electoral votes for the state-wide popular vote winner.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Emerson 25-Sep-16 26-Sep-16 700 3.6 29.2 55.6 T+26.4


Nebraska-1

2004 Result: 36.00% Kerry, 63.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.34% Obama, 54.09% McCain.

2012 Result: 40.95% Obama, 57.59% Romney.

1 Electoral vote.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.2% wins (169 wins ), Trump: 99.8% wins (99,831 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Emerson 25-Sep-16 26-Sep-16 233 --- 29.0 53.0 T+24.0


Nebraska-2

2004 Result: 38.00% Kerry, 60.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.96% Obama, 48.76% McCain.

2012 Result: 45.78% Obama, 52.95% Romney.

1 Electoral vote.

1 poll

Clinton: 15.7% wins (15,660 wins ), Trump: 84.3% wins (84,340 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Emerson 25-Sep-16 26-Sep-16 233 --- 40.0 49.0 T+9.0


Nebraska-3

2004 Result: 24.00% Kerry, 75.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 29.63% Obama, 68.64% McCain.

2012 Result: 27.94% Obama, 70.56% Romney.

1 Electoral vote.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Emerson 25-Sep-16 26-Sep-16 234 --- 20.0 65.0 T+45.0


Nevada

2004 Result: 47.88% Kerry, 50.47% Bush.

2008 Result: 55.15% Obama, 42.65% McCain.

2012 Result: 52.36% Obama, 45.68% Romney.

6 Electoral votes.

8 polls

Clinton: 52.4% wins (52,429 wins ), Trump: 47.6% wins (47,571 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
LVRJ 27-Sep-16 29-Sep-16 800 3.5 45.0 44.0 C+1.0
Suffolk 27-Sep-16 29-Sep-16 500 4.4 44.2 38.2 C+6.0
FOX 18-Sep-16 20-Sep-16 704 3.5 40.0 43.0 T+3.0
Rasmussen 16-Sep-16 18-Sep-16 800 4.0 39.0 42.0 T+3.0
GQR 10-Sep-16 19-Sep-16 400 4.9 42.0 42.0 0.0
Monmouth 11-Sep-16 13-Sep-16 406 4.9 42.0 44.0 T+2.0
NBC/WSJ/Marist 06-Sep-16 08-Sep-16 627 3.9 41.0 42.0 T+1.0
PPP 06-Sep-16 07-Sep-16 815 --- 45.0 42.0 C+3.0


New Hampshire

2004 Result: 50.24% Kerry, 48.87% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.13% Obama, 44.52% McCain.

2012 Result: 51.98% Obama, 46.40% Romney.

4 Electoral votes.

6 polls

Clinton: 99.1% wins (99,103 wins ), Trump: 0.9% wins (897 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
WBUR 27-Sep-16 29-Sep-16 502 4.4 42.0 35.0 C+7.0
GBA Strategies 25-Sep-16 27-Sep-16 600 4.0 43.0 37.0 C+6.0
ARG 20-Sep-16 25-Sep-16 522 4.2 46.0 42.0 C+4.0
Monmouth 17-Sep-16 20-Sep-16 400 4.9 47.0 38.0 C+9.0
NBC/WSJ/Marist 06-Sep-16 08-Sep-16 737 3.6 39.0 37.0 C+2.0
Emerson 02-Sep-16 05-Sep-16 600 3.9 41.8 36.7 C+5.2


New Jersey

2004 Result: 52.92% Kerry, 46.24% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.27% Obama, 41.70% McCain.

2012 Result: 58.38% Obama, 40.59% Romney.

14 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Clinton: 92.5% wins (92,538 wins ), Trump: 7.5% wins (7,462 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Stockton 22-Sep-16 29-Sep-16 638 3.9 46.2 39.8 C+6.4
Emerson 02-Sep-16 05-Sep-16 800 3.4 46.6 42.9 C+3.6


New Mexico

2004 Result: 49.05% Kerry, 49.84% Bush.

2008 Result: 56.91% Obama, 41.78% McCain.

2012 Result: 52.99% Obama, 42.84% Romney.

5 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 77.3% wins (77,337 wins ), Trump: 22.7% wins (22,663 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
AbqJournal 27-Sep-16 29-Sep-16 501 4.4 35.0 31.0 C+4.0


New York

2004 Result: 58.37% Kerry, 40.08% Bush.

2008 Result: 62.88% Obama, 36.03% McCain.

2012 Result: 63.35% Obama, 35.17% Romney.

29 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
NBC/WSJ/Marist 21-Sep-16 23-Sep-16 1145 2.9 57.0 33.0 C+24.0
Siena 11-Sep-16 17-Sep-16 600 5.0 51.0 30.0 C+21.0


North Carolina

2004 Result: 43.58% Kerry, 56.02% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.69% Obama, 49.36% McCain.

2012 Result: 48.35% Obama, 50.39% Romney.

15 Electoral votes.

11 polls

Clinton: 56.7% wins (56,732 wins ), Trump: 43.3% wins (43,268 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Bloomberg 29-Sep-16 02-Oct-16 805 3.5 46.0 45.0 C+1.0
Quinnipiac 27-Sep-16 02-Oct-16 507 4.4 46.0 43.0 C+3.0
Gravis 23-Sep-16 23-Sep-16 694 3.7 44.0 43.0 C+1.0
Meredith Col 18-Sep-16 22-Sep-16 469 4.4 38.0 35.4 C+2.6
High Point U 17-Sep-16 22-Sep-16 404 4.9 43.0 42.0 C+1.0
FOX 18-Sep-16 20-Sep-16 734 3.5 40.0 45.0 T+5.0
Siena 16-Sep-16 19-Sep-16 782 3.6 45.0 43.0 C+2.0
GQR 10-Sep-16 19-Sep-16 400 4.9 44.0 40.0 C+4.0
Elon 12-Sep-16 16-Sep-16 644 3.9 43.0 44.0 T+1.0
Civitas 11-Sep-16 12-Sep-16 600 4.0 42.0 42.0 0.0
Suffolk 05-Sep-16 07-Sep-16 500 4.4 41.2 44.4 T+3.2


North Dakota

2004 Result: 35.50% Kerry, 62.86% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.62% Obama, 53.25% McCain.

2012 Result: 38.69% Obama, 58.32% Romney.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 3.2% wins (3,217 wins ), Trump: 96.8% wins (96,783 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
SSI 12-Sep-16 17-Sep-16 400 4.9 32.0 43.0 T+11.0


Ohio

2004 Result: 48.71% Kerry, 50.81% Bush.

2008 Result: 51.50% Obama, 46.91% McCain.

2012 Result: 50.67% Obama, 47.69% Romney.

18 Electoral votes.

8 polls

Clinton: 5.2% wins (5,195 wins ), Trump: 94.8% wins (94,805 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Quinnipiac 27-Sep-16 02-Oct-16 497 4.4 42.0 47.0 T+5.0
Gravis 22-Sep-16 23-Sep-16 850 3.4 42.0 43.0 T+1.0
FOX 18-Sep-16 20-Sep-16 737 3.5 37.0 43.0 T+6.0
W&M 15-Sep-16 22-Sep-16 821 --- 40.0 37.0 C+3.0
GQR 10-Sep-16 19-Sep-16 400 4.9 39.0 41.0 T+2.0
Suffolk 12-Sep-16 14-Sep-16 500 4.4 38.6 41.6 T+3.0
Bloomberg 09-Sep-16 12-Sep-16 802 3.5 43.0 48.0 T+5.0
CNN/ORC 07-Sep-16 12-Sep-16 769 3.5 41.0 46.0 T+5.0


Oklahoma

2004 Result: 34.43% Kerry, 65.57% Bush.

2008 Result: 34.35% Obama, 65.64% McCain.

2012 Result: 33.23% Obama, 66.77% Romney.

7 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.4% wins (367 wins ), Trump: 99.6% wins (99,633 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Sooner 13-Sep-16 15-Sep-16 515 4.3 35.6 50.9 T+15.3


Oregon

2004 Result: 51.35% Kerry, 47.19% Bush.

2008 Result: 56.75% Obama, 40.40% McCain.

2012 Result: 54.24% Obama, 42.15% Romney.

7 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 99.6% wins (99,612 wins ), Trump: 0.4% wins (388 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
DHM 01-Sep-16 06-Sep-16 517 4.3 38.0 25.0 C+13.0


Pennsylvania

2004 Result: 50.92% Kerry, 48.42% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.64% Obama, 44.29% McCain.

2012 Result: 51.97% Obama, 46.59% Romney.

20 Electoral votes.

8 polls

Clinton: 94.9% wins (94,886 wins ), Trump: 5.1% wins (5,114 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Quinnipiac 27-Sep-16 02-Oct-16 535 4.2 45.0 41.0 C+4.0
Gravis 23-Sep-16 23-Sep-16 949 3.2 46.0 43.0 C+3.0
CNN/ORC 20-Sep-16 25-Sep-16 771 3.5 45.0 44.0 C+1.0
Harper 21-Sep-16 22-Sep-16 500 4.4 45.0 43.0 C+2.0
Muhlenberg 19-Sep-16 23-Sep-16 468 5.0 40.0 38.0 C+2.0
Mercyhurst 12-Sep-16 23-Sep-16 420 4.8 41.0 42.0 T+1.0
GQR 10-Sep-16 19-Sep-16 400 4.9 46.0 38.0 C+8.0
Muhlenberg Col 12-Sep-16 16-Sep-16 405 5.5 40.0 32.0 C+8.0


Rhode Island

2004 Result: 59.42% Kerry, 38.67% Bush.

2008 Result: 63.13% Obama, 35.21% McCain.

2012 Result: 62.70% Obama, 35.24% Romney.

4 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 70.3% wins (70,331 wins ), Trump: 29.7% wins (29,669 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Emerson 02-Sep-16 05-Sep-16 800 3.4 43.7 41.2 C+2.5


South Carolina

2004 Result: 40.90% Kerry, 57.98% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.90% Obama, 53.87% McCain.

2012 Result: 44.09% Obama, 54.56% Romney.

9 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Clinton: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Winthrop 18-Sep-16 26-Sep-16 475 4.5 38.0 42.0 T+4.0
Trafalgar Group 06-Sep-16 12-Sep-16 1247 2.8 37.6 53.0 T+15.4


South Dakota

2004 Result: 38.44% Kerry, 59.91% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.75% Obama, 53.16% McCain.

2012 Result: 39.87% Obama, 57.89% Romney.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.0% wins (29 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (99,971 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Morning Consult 01-Apr-16 30-Jun-16 831 3.4 32.4 46.7 T+14.3


Tennessee

2004 Result: 42.53% Kerry, 56.80% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.83% Obama, 56.90% McCain.

2012 Result: 39.08% Obama, 59.48% Romney.

11 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Morning Consult 01-Apr-16 30-Jun-16 2660 1.9 33.4 49.0 T+15.6


Texas

2004 Result: 38.22% Kerry, 61.09% Bush.

2008 Result: 43.68% Obama, 55.45% McCain.

2012 Result: 41.38% Obama, 57.17% Romney.

38 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Clinton: 2.8% wins (2,793 wins ), Trump: 97.2% wins (97,207 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Emerson 07-Sep-16 10-Sep-16 700 3.6 36.1 42.5 T+6.4
Texas Lyceum 01-Sep-16 11-Sep-16 502 4.4 32.0 39.0 T+7.0


Utah

2004 Result: 26.00% Kerry, 71.54% Bush.

2008 Result: 34.41% Obama, 62.58% McCain.

2012 Result: 24.75% Obama, 72.79% Romney.

6 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.1% wins (83 wins ), Trump: 99.9% wins (99,917 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Dan Jones 01-Sep-16 09-Sep-16 605 4.0 24.0 39.0 T+15.0


Vermont

2004 Result: 58.94% Kerry, 38.80% Bush.

2008 Result: 67.44% Obama, 30.44% McCain.

2012 Result: 66.57% Obama, 30.97% Romney.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Emerson 02-Sep-16 05-Sep-16 600 3.9 47.5 25.7 C+21.8


Virginia

2004 Result: 45.48% Kerry, 53.68% Bush.

2008 Result: 52.63% Obama, 46.33% McCain.

2012 Result: 51.16% Obama, 47.28% Romney.

13 Electoral votes.

6 polls

Clinton: 100.0% wins (99,972 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (28 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
CNU 27-Sep-16 30-Sep-16 892 3.7 42.0 35.0 C+7.0
CNU 15-Sep-16 23-Sep-16 1003 3.9 39.0 33.0 C+6.0
Quinnipiac 13-Sep-16 21-Sep-16 659 3.8 45.0 39.0 C+6.0
Roanoke 11-Sep-16 20-Sep-16 841 3.4 44.0 37.0 C+7.0
PPP 09-Sep-16 11-Sep-16 878 3.3 45.0 39.0 C+6.0
UMW 06-Sep-16 12-Sep-16 685 4.4 40.0 37.0 C+3.0


Washington

2004 Result: 52.82% Kerry, 45.64% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.65% Obama, 40.48% McCain.

2012 Result: 56.16% Obama, 41.29% Romney.

12 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 87.5% wins (87,459 wins ), Trump: 12.5% wins (12,541 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Emerson 25-Sep-16 26-Sep-16 700 3.6 44.2 38.5 C+5.7


West Virginia

2004 Result: 43.20% Kerry, 56.06% Bush.

2008 Result: 42.59% Obama, 55.71% McCain.

2012 Result: 35.54% Obama, 62.30% Romney.

5 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.3% wins (307 wins ), Trump: 99.7% wins (99,693 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Repass Res 09-Aug-16 28-Aug-16 386 4.7 31.0 49.0 T+18.0


Wisconsin

2004 Result: 49.70% Kerry, 49.32% Bush.

2008 Result: 56.22% Obama, 42.31% McCain.

2012 Result: 52.83% Obama, 45.89% Romney.

10 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Clinton: 92.0% wins (92,003 wins ), Trump: 8.0% wins (7,997 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Emerson 19-Sep-16 20-Sep-16 700 3.6 44.6 38.3 C+6.3
Marquette 15-Sep-16 18-Sep-16 642 4.8 41.0 38.0 C+3.0


Wyoming

2004 Result: 29.07% Kerry, 68.86% Bush.

2008 Result: 32.54% Obama, 64.78% McCain.

2012 Result: 27.82% Obama, 68.64% Romney.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
SSI 06-Sep-16 11-Sep-16 402 4.9 19.0 54.0 T+35.0