Biden versus Trump using polls from 21-Oct-19 to 21-Oct-20


Alabama

2004 Result: 36.84% Kerry, 62.46% Bush.

2008 Result: 38.74% Obama, 60.32% McCain.

2012 Result: 38.36% Obama, 60.55% Romney,

2016 Result: 34.00% Clinton, 62.00% Trump.

9 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Auburn-M 30-Sep-20 03-Oct-20 1072 4.0 37.2 56.8 T+19.6


Alaska

2004 Result: 35.52% Kerry, 61.07% Bush.

2008 Result: 37.89% Obama, 59.43% McCain.

2012 Result: 40.81% Obama, 54.80% Romney,

2016 Result: 37.00% Clinton, 51.00% Trump.

3 Electoral votes.

5 polls

Biden: 7.0% wins (7,008 wins ), Trump: 93.0% wins (92,992 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
PPP 19-Oct-20 20-Oct-20 800 3.5 45.0 50.0 T+5.0
Siena 07-Oct-20 09-Oct-20 423 5.7 39.0 45.0 T+6.0
Patinkin 30-Sep-20 04-Oct-20 600 4.0 46.0 49.0 T+3.0
ASR 25-Sep-20 04-Oct-20 676 --- 46.0 50.0 T+4.0
Harstad 20-Sep-20 23-Sep-20 602 4.0 46.0 47.0 T+1.0


Arizona

2004 Result: 44.40% Kerry, 54.87% Bush.

2008 Result: 45.11% Obama, 53.63% McCain.

2012 Result: 44.59% Obama, 53.65% Romney,

2016 Result: 45.00% Clinton, 49.00% Trump.

11 Electoral votes.

24 polls

Biden: 99.8% wins (99,776 wins ), Trump: 0.2% wins (224 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Rasmussen 18-Oct-20 19-Oct-20 800 3.5 48.0 46.0 B+2.0
Ipsos 14-Oct-20 21-Oct-20 658 4.4 50.0 46.0 B+4.0
Change Res 16-Oct-20 19-Oct-20 232 --- 51.0 45.0 B+6.0
Data Orbital 16-Oct-20 18-Oct-20 550 4.2 47.1 41.9 B+5.2
RMG Res 14-Oct-20 19-Oct-20 800 3.5 47.0 46.0 B+1.0
YouGov 13-Oct-20 16-Oct-20 1087 4.1 49.0 45.0 B+4.0
Monmouth 09-Oct-20 13-Oct-20 502 4.4 50.0 44.0 B+6.0
Ipsos 07-Oct-20 14-Oct-20 667 4.3 49.0 47.0 B+2.0
Trafalgar 06-Oct-20 08-Oct-20 1087 2.9 43.8 47.8 T+4.0
Morning Consult 02-Oct-20 11-Oct-20 1144 2.9 49.0 46.0 B+3.0
RWS 04-Oct-20 07-Oct-20 727 --- 49.0 43.0 B+6.0
Data Orbital 03-Oct-20 05-Oct-20 550 4.5 47.7 42.2 B+5.5
Ipsos 29-Sep-20 07-Oct-20 633 3.4 48.0 46.0 B+2.0
Change Res 02-Oct-20 04-Oct-20 296 --- 51.0 45.0 B+6.0
Latino Decisions 28-Sep-20 06-Oct-20 600 4.0 48.0 45.0 B+3.0
Siena 01-Oct-20 03-Oct-20 655 4.2 49.0 41.0 B+8.0
Highground 28-Sep-20 05-Oct-20 400 --- 45.8 44.8 B+1.0
Suffolk 26-Sep-20 30-Sep-20 500 --- 50.2 46.2 B+4.0
Targoz 23-Sep-20 02-Oct-20 1045 3.0 44.7 45.7 T+1.1
Strategies 360 24-Sep-20 29-Sep-20 800 3.5 49.0 45.0 B+4.0
Susquehanna 25-Sep-20 28-Sep-20 500 4.3 47.0 47.0 0.0
Data for Progress 23-Sep-20 28-Sep-20 808 3.4 50.0 46.0 B+4.0
RWS 23-Sep-20 26-Sep-20 836 --- 47.0 44.0 B+3.0


Arkansas

2004 Result: 44.55% Kerry, 54.31% Bush.

2008 Result: 38.86% Obama, 58.72% McCain.

2012 Result: 36.88% Obama, 60.57% Romney,

2016 Result: 34.00% Clinton, 61.00% Trump.

6 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Hendrix Col 11-Oct-20 13-Oct-20 647 4.9 33.5 58.0 T+24.5


California

2004 Result: 54.31% Kerry, 44.36% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.01% Obama, 36.95% McCain.

2012 Result: 60.24% Obama, 37.12% Romney,

2016 Result: 62.00% Clinton, 32.00% Trump.

55 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
SurveyUSA 26-Sep-20 28-Sep-20 558 5.3 59.0 31.6 B+27.4


Colorado

2004 Result: 47.02% Kerry, 51.69% Bush.

2008 Result: 53.66% Obama, 44.71% McCain.

2012 Result: 51.49% Obama, 46.13% Romney,

2016 Result: 48.00% Clinton, 43.00% Trump.

9 Electoral votes.

7 polls

Biden: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
RBI 12-Oct-20 16-Oct-20 502 4.4 55.0 38.0 B+17.0
Civiqs 11-Oct-20 14-Oct-20 1013 3.6 54.0 42.0 B+12.0
RMG Res 09-Oct-20 15-Oct-20 800 3.5 51.0 43.0 B+8.0
Keating 08-Oct-20 13-Oct-20 519 4.3 54.0 39.0 B+15.0
YouGov 05-Oct-20 09-Oct-20 800 4.7 47.0 38.0 B+9.0
Morning Consult 02-Oct-20 11-Oct-20 837 3.4 54.0 40.0 B+14.0
SurveyUSA 01-Oct-20 06-Oct-20 1021 3.9 50.0 40.0 B+10.0


Connecticut

2004 Result: 54.31% Kerry, 43.95% Bush.

2008 Result: 60.59% Obama, 38.22% McCain.

2012 Result: 58.06% Obama, 40.73% Romney,

2016 Result: 55.00% Clinton, 41.00% Trump.

7 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Biden: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
SurveyUSA 19-May-20 24-May-20 808 4.5 52.3 31.9 B+20.4
Quinnipiac 30-Apr-20 04-May-20 915 3.2 56.0 33.0 B+23.0


Delaware

2004 Result: 53.35% Kerry, 45.75% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.94% Obama, 36.95% McCain.

2012 Result: 58.61% Obama, 39.98% Romney,

2016 Result: 53.00% Clinton, 42.00% Trump.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
U DE 21-Sep-20 27-Sep-20 847 4.0 54.0 33.0 B+21.0


D.C.

2004 Result: 89.18% Kerry, 9.34% Bush.

2008 Result: 92.46% Obama, 6.53% McCain.

2012 Result: 90.91% Obama, 7.28% Romney,

2016 Result: 90.00% Clinton, 4.00% Trump.

3 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Biden assumed to win all elections based on past 4 elections.



Florida

2004 Result: 47.09% Kerry, 52.10% Bush.

2008 Result: 51.03% Obama, 48.22% McCain.

2012 Result: 50.01% Obama, 49.13% Romney,

2016 Result: 48.00% Clinton, 49.00% Trump.

29 Electoral votes.

29 polls

Biden: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Civiqs 17-Oct-20 20-Oct-20 863 3.5 51.0 47.0 B+4.0
SRSS 15-Oct-20 20-Oct-20 847 4.0 50.0 46.0 B+4.0
Change Res 16-Oct-20 19-Oct-20 547 --- 50.0 45.0 B+5.0
Ipsos 14-Oct-20 20-Oct-20 662 4.3 51.0 46.0 B+5.0
UNF 12-Oct-20 16-Oct-20 863 3.3 48.0 47.0 B+1.0
Harris 12-Oct-20 15-Oct-20 965 --- 48.0 48.0 0.0
Trafalgar 11-Oct-20 13-Oct-20 1051 2.9 46.1 48.4 T+2.3
St Pete 11-Oct-20 12-Oct-20 2215 2.1 49.2 47.2 B+2.0
Emerson 10-Oct-20 12-Oct-20 690 3.7 50.0 47.2 B+2.8
Ipsos 07-Oct-20 14-Oct-20 653 4.4 50.0 47.0 B+3.0
Mason-Dixon 08-Oct-20 12-Oct-20 625 4.0 48.0 45.0 B+3.0
Clearview 07-Oct-20 12-Oct-20 500 4.2 47.0 40.0 B+7.0
FAU 09-Oct-20 10-Oct-20 644 3.8 50.3 46.0 B+4.3
Morning Consult 02-Oct-20 11-Oct-20 4785 1.4 51.0 46.0 B+5.0
Insider Advantage 06-Oct-20 07-Oct-20 400 4.9 43.0 46.0 T+3.0
RMG 04-Oct-20 08-Oct-20 800 --- 48.0 46.0 B+2.0
RWS 04-Oct-20 06-Oct-20 998 --- 49.0 44.0 B+5.0
Ipsos 29-Sep-20 07-Oct-20 678 4.3 49.0 45.0 B+4.0
Quinnipiac 01-Oct-20 05-Oct-20 1256 2.8 51.0 40.0 B+11.0
Change Res 02-Oct-20 04-Oct-20 560 --- 50.0 46.0 B+4.0
UNF 01-Oct-20 04-Oct-20 3142 --- 51.0 45.0 B+6.0
Suffolk 01-Oct-20 04-Oct-20 500 --- 45.0 45.2 T+0.2
Siena 30-Sep-20 01-Oct-20 710 4.1 49.0 42.0 B+7.0
St Leo 27-Sep-20 02-Oct-20 500 4.5 49.2 43.4 B+5.8
St Leo 27-Sep-20 02-Oct-20 489 --- 44.9 43.9 B+1.0
Cherry 23-Sep-20 29-Sep-20 604 4.0 49.0 44.0 B+5.0
Susquehanna 23-Sep-20 26-Sep-20 500 4.3 46.0 43.0 B+3.0
RWS 23-Sep-20 25-Sep-20 1019 --- 48.0 43.0 B+5.0
St Pete 21-Sep-20 22-Sep-20 2906 1.8 49.7 46.5 B+3.2


Georgia

2004 Result: 41.37% Kerry, 57.97% Bush.

2008 Result: 46.99% Obama, 52.20% McCain.

2012 Result: 45.48% Obama, 53.30% Romney,

2016 Result: 46.00% Clinton, 51.00% Trump.

16 Electoral votes.

16 polls

Biden: 82.2% wins (82,159 wins ), Trump: 17.8% wins (17,841 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Emerson 17-Oct-20 19-Oct-20 506 4.3 46.1 47.5 T+1.4
Siena 13-Oct-20 19-Oct-20 759 4.1 45.0 45.0 0.0
GHY 11-Oct-20 14-Oct-20 600 --- 51.0 44.0 B+7.0
SurveyUSA 08-Oct-20 12-Oct-20 677 5.7 48.0 46.2 B+1.8
Quinnipiac 08-Oct-20 12-Oct-20 1040 3.0 51.0 44.0 B+7.0
Data for Progress 08-Oct-20 11-Oct-20 782 3.5 46.0 46.0 0.0
PPP 08-Oct-20 09-Oct-20 528 4.3 47.0 46.0 B+1.0
Landmark 07-Oct-20 07-Oct-20 600 4.0 46.8 48.6 T+1.8
Morning Consult 02-Oct-20 11-Oct-20 1837 2.3 47.0 49.0 T+2.0
U GA 27-Sep-20 04-Oct-20 1106 4.0 46.4 47.5 T+1.1
Landmark 30-Sep-20 30-Sep-20 500 4.4 47.0 45.0 B+2.0
Civiqs 26-Sep-20 29-Sep-20 969 3.5 50.0 47.0 B+3.0
Hart Res 24-Sep-20 27-Sep-20 400 4.9 50.0 47.0 B+3.0
Quinnipiac 23-Sep-20 27-Sep-20 1125 2.9 50.0 47.0 B+3.0
RWS 23-Sep-20 26-Sep-20 744 --- 45.0 44.0 B+1.0
YouGov 22-Sep-20 25-Sep-20 1164 3.3 46.0 47.0 T+1.0


Hawaii

2004 Result: 54.01% Kerry, 45.26% Bush.

2008 Result: 71.85% Obama, 26.58% McCain.

2012 Result: 70.55% Obama, 27.84% Romney,

2016 Result: 62.00% Clinton, 30.00% Trump.

4 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
MRG 02-Oct-20 07-Oct-20 988 3.1 61.0 28.0 B+33.0


Idaho

2004 Result: 30.26% Kerry, 68.38% Bush.

2008 Result: 36.10% Obama, 61.53% McCain.

2012 Result: 32.62% Obama, 64.53% Romney,

2016 Result: 27.00% Clinton, 59.00% Trump.

4 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
SPRY 29-Aug-20 01-Sep-20 600 4.0 34.5 59.7 T+25.2


Illinois

2004 Result: 54.82% Kerry, 44.48% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.92% Obama, 36.78% McCain.

2012 Result: 57.60% Obama, 40.73% Romney,

2016 Result: 56.00% Clinton, 39.00% Trump.

20 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Victory Res 23-Sep-20 26-Sep-20 1208 2.8 52.9 39.8 B+13.1


Indiana

2004 Result: 39.26% Kerry, 59.94% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.95% Obama, 48.91% McCain.

2012 Result: 43.93% Obama, 54.13% Romney,

2016 Result: 38.00% Clinton, 57.00% Trump.

11 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 7.2% wins (7,170 wins ), Trump: 92.8% wins (92,830 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
SurveyUSA 08-Oct-20 13-Oct-20 685 5.2 41.8 49.2 T+7.4


Iowa

2004 Result: 49.23% Kerry, 49.90% Bush.

2008 Result: 53.93% Obama, 44.39% McCain.

2012 Result: 51.99% Obama, 46.18% Romney,

2016 Result: 42.00% Clinton, 51.00% Trump.

6 Electoral votes.

12 polls

Biden: 63.9% wins (63,910 wins ), Trump: 36.1% wins (36,090 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Emerson 19-Oct-20 21-Oct-20 435 4.7 48.5 48.5 0.0
Siena 18-Oct-20 20-Oct-20 753 3.9 46.0 43.0 B+3.0
Insider Advantage 18-Oct-20 19-Oct-20 400 4.9 45.1 44.6 B+0.5
Monmouth 15-Oct-20 19-Oct-20 501 4.4 47.0 48.0 T+1.0
David Binder 10-Oct-20 13-Oct-20 200 --- 44.0 50.0 T+6.0
Data for Progress 08-Oct-20 11-Oct-20 819 3.4 47.0 48.0 T+1.0
YouGov 06-Oct-20 09-Oct-20 1035 3.5 46.0 45.0 B+1.0
Civiqs 03-Oct-20 06-Oct-20 756 3.9 48.0 47.0 B+1.0
Quinnipiac 01-Oct-20 05-Oct-20 1205 2.8 50.0 45.0 B+5.0
Data for Progress 23-Sep-20 28-Sep-20 743 3.6 45.0 50.0 T+5.0
Hart Res 24-Sep-20 27-Sep-20 400 4.9 47.0 49.0 T+2.0
RABA Res 23-Sep-20 26-Sep-20 780 4.0 48.0 46.0 B+2.0


Kansas

2004 Result: 36.62% Kerry, 62.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.65% Obama, 56.61% McCain.

2012 Result: 37.99% Obama, 59.71% Romney,

2016 Result: 36.00% Clinton, 57.00% Trump.

6 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Biden: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
PPP 18-Oct-20 20-Oct-20 897 3.3 42.0 54.0 T+12.0
co/efficient 18-Oct-20 20-Oct-20 2453 3.7 39.0 56.0 T+17.0
Civiqs 26-Sep-20 29-Sep-20 677 4.5 42.0 52.0 T+10.0


Kentucky

2004 Result: 39.69% Kerry, 59.55% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.17% Obama, 57.40% McCain.

2012 Result: 37.80% Obama, 60.49% Romney,

2016 Result: 33.00% Clinton, 63.00% Trump.

8 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 0.0% wins (41 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (99,959 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Mason-Dixon 12-Oct-20 15-Oct-20 625 4.0 39.0 56.0 T+17.0


Louisiana

2004 Result: 42.22% Kerry, 56.72% Bush.

2008 Result: 39.93% Obama, 58.56% McCain.

2012 Result: 40.58% Obama, 57.78% Romney,

2016 Result: 38.00% Clinton, 58.00% Trump.

8 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Trafalgar 04-Oct-20 06-Oct-20 1048 3.0 35.9 54.1 T+18.2


Maine

2004 Result: 53.57% Kerry, 44.58% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.67% Obama, 40.36% McCain.

2012 Result: 56.27% Obama, 40.98% Romney,

2016 Result: 48.00% Clinton, 45.00% Trump.

2 Electoral votes. Maine allocates an elector to the winner of each congressional district, and two more electoral votes for the state-wide popular vote winner.

3 polls

Biden: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Pan Atlantic 02-Oct-20 06-Oct-20 600 4.5 50.3 39.7 B+10.6
Critial Insights 30-Sep-20 01-Oct-20 466 --- 51.3 39.7 B+11.6
Data for Progress 23-Sep-20 28-Sep-20 718 3.7 55.0 41.0 B+14.0


Maine-1

2004 Result: 43.00% Kerry, 55.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 60.51% Obama, 37.69% McCain.

2012 Result: 59.57% Obama, 38.18% Romney,

2016 Result: 54.00% Clinton, 39.00% Trump.

1 Electoral vote.

2 polls

Biden: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Pan Atlantic 02-Oct-20 06-Oct-20 300 --- 54.0 36.5 B+17.5
Critial Insights 30-Sep-20 01-Oct-20 232 --- 61.9 30.3 B+31.6


Maine-2

2004 Result: 46.00% Kerry, 52.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.61% Obama, 43.35% McCain.

2012 Result: 52.94% Obama, 44.38% Romney,

2016 Result: 41.00% Clinton, 51.00% Trump.

1 Electoral vote.

2 polls

Biden: 42.5% wins (42,450 wins ), Trump: 57.5% wins (57,550 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Pan Atlantic 02-Oct-20 06-Oct-20 300 --- 46.5 43.0 B+3.5
Critial Insights 30-Sep-20 01-Oct-20 234 --- 41.2 48.9 T+7.7


Maryland

2004 Result: 55.91% Kerry, 42.93% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.92% Obama, 36.47% McCain.

2012 Result: 61.97% Obama, 35.90% Romney,

2016 Result: 60.00% Clinton, 34.00% Trump.

10 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Biden: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Goucher 30-Sep-20 04-Oct-20 776 3.5 61.0 30.0 B+31.0
Change Res 29-Sep-20 01-Oct-20 650 4.6 61.0 32.0 B+29.0


Massachusetts

2004 Result: 61.94% Kerry, 36.78% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.80% Obama, 35.99% McCain.

2012 Result: 60.65% Obama, 37.51% Romney,

2016 Result: 60.00% Clinton, 33.00% Trump.

11 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Emerson 25-Aug-20 27-Aug-20 763 --- 67.8 29.8 B+38.1


Michigan

2004 Result: 51.23% Kerry, 47.81% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.43% Obama, 40.96% McCain.

2012 Result: 54.21% Obama, 44.71% Romney,

2016 Result: 47.00% Clinton, 48.00% Trump.

16 Electoral votes.

24 polls

Biden: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Fox News 17-Oct-20 20-Oct-20 1032 3.0 52.0 40.0 B+12.0
Mitchell 18-Oct-20 18-Oct-20 900 3.3 51.0 41.0 B+10.0
Change Res 16-Oct-20 19-Oct-20 718 --- 51.0 44.0 B+7.0
Ipsos 14-Oct-20 20-Oct-20 686 4.3 52.0 44.0 B+8.0
Data for Progress 15-Oct-20 18-Oct-20 830 3.4 50.0 45.0 B+5.0
Harris 12-Oct-20 15-Oct-20 1289 --- 54.0 43.0 B+11.0
Trafalgar 11-Oct-20 14-Oct-20 1025 --- 45.9 46.5 T+0.6
RMG Res 08-Oct-20 13-Oct-20 800 3.5 48.0 42.0 B+6.0
Ipsos 07-Oct-20 13-Oct-20 620 4.5 51.0 44.0 B+7.0
EPIC-MRA 08-Oct-20 12-Oct-20 600 4.0 48.0 39.0 B+9.0
Civiqs 08-Oct-20 11-Oct-20 543 4.6 52.0 43.0 B+9.0
Siena 06-Oct-20 11-Oct-20 614 4.6 48.0 40.0 B+8.0
YouGov 06-Oct-20 09-Oct-20 1190 3.2 50.0 42.0 B+8.0
Morning Consult 02-Oct-20 11-Oct-20 1710 2.4 51.0 44.0 B+7.0
Emerson 06-Oct-20 07-Oct-20 716 3.6 52.4 42.5 B+9.9
RWS 04-Oct-20 06-Oct-20 700 --- 50.0 42.0 B+8.0
Baldwin Wallace 30-Sep-20 08-Oct-20 1134 3.2 50.2 43.2 B+7.0
Change Res 02-Oct-20 04-Oct-20 676 --- 51.0 43.0 B+8.0
Ipsos 29-Sep-20 06-Oct-20 704 4.0 51.0 43.0 B+8.0
Glengariff 30-Sep-20 03-Oct-20 600 4.0 48.0 39.0 B+9.0
PPP 30-Sep-20 01-Oct-20 746 --- 50.0 44.0 B+6.0
Trafalgar 26-Sep-20 28-Sep-20 1042 3.0 48.7 47.1 B+1.6
RWS 23-Sep-20 26-Sep-20 760 --- 51.0 42.0 B+9.0
Marist 19-Sep-20 23-Sep-20 799 4.3 52.0 44.0 B+8.0


Minnesota

2004 Result: 51.09% Kerry, 47.61% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.06% Obama, 43.82% McCain.

2012 Result: 52.65% Obama, 44.96% Romney,

2016 Result: 46.00% Clinton, 45.00% Trump.

10 Electoral votes.

7 polls

Biden: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Civiqs 17-Oct-20 20-Oct-20 840 3.6 53.0 43.0 B+10.0
Change Res 12-Oct-20 15-Oct-20 1021 3.1 49.0 44.0 B+5.0
David Binder 10-Oct-20 13-Oct-20 200 --- 52.0 41.0 B+11.0
Morning Consult 02-Oct-20 11-Oct-20 898 2.3 50.0 44.0 B+6.0
SurveyUSA 01-Oct-20 06-Oct-20 929 --- 47.0 40.0 B+7.0
Suffolk 20-Sep-20 24-Sep-20 500 --- 46.6 40.2 B+6.4
Mason-Dixon 21-Sep-20 23-Sep-20 800 3.5 48.0 42.0 B+6.0


Mississippi

2004 Result: 39.75% Kerry, 59.44% Bush.

2008 Result: 43.00% Obama, 56.18% McCain.

2012 Result: 43.79% Obama, 55.29% Romney,

2016 Result: 40.00% Clinton, 58.00% Trump.

6 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 12.9% wins (12,905 wins ), Trump: 87.1% wins (87,095 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Remington 30-Sep-20 01-Oct-20 980 3.0 46.0 51.0 T+5.0


Missouri

2004 Result: 46.10% Kerry, 53.30% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.29% Obama, 49.43% McCain.

2012 Result: 44.38% Obama, 53.76% Romney,

2016 Result: 38.00% Clinton, 57.00% Trump.

10 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Biden: 1.5% wins (1,511 wins ), Trump: 98.5% wins (98,489 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Remington 14-Oct-20 15-Oct-20 1010 3.0 45.0 51.0 T+6.0
YouGov 24-Sep-20 07-Oct-20 931 3.9 43.2 51.8 T+8.6
GHY 28-Sep-20 02-Oct-20 600 4.1 48.0 50.0 T+2.0


Montana

2004 Result: 38.56% Kerry, 59.07% Bush.

2008 Result: 47.25% Obama, 49.52% McCain.

2012 Result: 41.70% Obama, 55.35% Romney,

2016 Result: 36.00% Clinton, 56.00% Trump.

3 Electoral votes.

4 polls

Biden: 0.1% wins (72 wins ), Trump: 99.9% wins (99,928 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
PPP 09-Oct-20 10-Oct-20 798 --- 46.0 52.0 T+6.0
Emerson 05-Oct-20 07-Oct-20 500 4.3 43.0 56.4 T+13.4
Data for Progress 30-Sep-20 05-Oct-20 737 --- 43.0 49.0 T+6.0
MSU-B 14-Sep-20 02-Oct-20 1615 3.9 44.0 51.0 T+7.0


Nebraska

2004 Result: 32.68% Kerry, 65.90% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.60% Obama, 56.53% McCain.

2012 Result: 38.03% Obama, 59.80% Romney,

2016 Result: 34.00% Clinton, 59.00% Trump.

2 Electoral votes. Nebraska allocates an elector to the winner of each congressional district, and two more electoral votes for the state-wide popular vote winner.

0 polls

Trump assumed to win all elections based on past 4 elections.



Nebraska-1

2004 Result: 36.00% Kerry, 63.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.34% Obama, 54.09% McCain.

2012 Result: 40.95% Obama, 57.59% Romney,

2016 Result: 35.00% Clinton, 56.00% Trump.

1 Electoral vote.

1 poll

Biden: 40.7% wins (40,748 wins ), Trump: 59.3% wins (59,252 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Stragegies 360 16-Jul-20 22-Jul-20 400 --- 46.0 48.0 T+2.0


Nebraska-2

2004 Result: 38.00% Kerry, 60.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.96% Obama, 48.76% McCain.

2012 Result: 45.78% Obama, 52.95% Romney,

2016 Result: 45.00% Clinton, 47.00% Trump.

1 Electoral vote.

2 polls

Biden: 97.9% wins (97,936 wins ), Trump: 2.1% wins (2,064 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
FM3 Res 01-Oct-20 04-Oct-20 450 4.6 53.0 42.0 B+11.0
Siena 25-Sep-20 27-Sep-20 520 5.3 48.0 41.0 B+7.0


Nebraska-3

2004 Result: 24.00% Kerry, 75.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 29.63% Obama, 68.64% McCain.

2012 Result: 27.94% Obama, 70.56% Romney,

2016 Result: 20.00% Clinton, 74.00% Trump.

1 Electoral vote.

0 polls

Trump assumed to win all elections based on past 4 elections.



Nevada

2004 Result: 47.88% Kerry, 50.47% Bush.

2008 Result: 55.15% Obama, 42.65% McCain.

2012 Result: 52.36% Obama, 45.68% Romney,

2016 Result: 48.00% Clinton, 46.00% Trump.

6 Electoral votes.

7 polls

Biden: 100.0% wins (99,978 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (22 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Civiqs 17-Oct-20 20-Oct-20 712 5.3 52.0 43.0 B+9.0
WPA Intel 07-Oct-20 11-Oct-20 512 4.4 44.0 42.0 B+2.0
YouGov 06-Oct-20 09-Oct-20 1036 4.1 52.0 46.0 B+6.0
Siena 02-Oct-20 06-Oct-20 660 4.3 48.0 42.0 B+6.0
St Anselm 01-Oct-20 04-Oct-20 1147 2.9 53.1 41.7 B+11.4
Rasmussen 23-Sep-20 25-Sep-20 750 --- 49.0 48.0 B+1.0
Fox News 20-Sep-20 23-Sep-20 810 3.0 52.0 41.0 B+11.0


New Hampshire

2004 Result: 50.24% Kerry, 48.87% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.13% Obama, 44.52% McCain.

2012 Result: 51.98% Obama, 46.40% Romney,

2016 Result: 47.00% Clinton, 47.00% Trump.

4 Electoral votes.

6 polls

Biden: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
UNH 09-Oct-20 12-Oct-20 899 3.3 55.0 43.0 B+12.0
Suffolk 08-Oct-20 12-Oct-20 500 --- 51.0 40.8 B+10.2
Emerson 30-Sep-20 01-Oct-20 700 3.6 52.3 45.3 B+7.0
ARG 25-Sep-20 28-Sep-20 600 4.0 53.0 44.0 B+9.0
Pulse 23-Sep-20 25-Sep-20 850 4.0 56.0 42.0 B+14.0
UMass-Lowell 17-Sep-20 25-Sep-20 657 4.6 52.0 44.0 B+8.0


New Jersey

2004 Result: 52.92% Kerry, 46.24% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.27% Obama, 41.70% McCain.

2012 Result: 58.38% Obama, 40.59% Romney,

2016 Result: 55.00% Clinton, 41.00% Trump.

14 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Biden: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Stockton 07-Oct-20 13-Oct-20 721 --- 56.3 35.8 B+20.5
DKC Analytics 05-Oct-20 13-Oct-20 500 --- 56.0 34.0 B+22.0
FDU 30-Sep-20 05-Oct-20 582 4.6 58.0 33.0 B+25.0


New Mexico

2004 Result: 49.05% Kerry, 49.84% Bush.

2008 Result: 56.91% Obama, 41.78% McCain.

2012 Result: 52.99% Obama, 42.84% Romney,

2016 Result: 48.00% Clinton, 40.00% Trump.

5 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Biden: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
GBAO 14-Oct-20 17-Oct-20 600 4.0 54.0 41.0 B+13.0
PPP 30-Sep-20 01-Oct-20 886 3.3 53.0 39.0 B+14.0


New York

2004 Result: 58.37% Kerry, 40.08% Bush.

2008 Result: 62.88% Obama, 36.03% McCain.

2012 Result: 63.35% Obama, 35.17% Romney,

2016 Result: 59.00% Clinton, 37.00% Trump.

29 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Siena 27-Sep-20 29-Sep-20 504 4.4 61.0 29.0 B+32.0


North Carolina

2004 Result: 43.58% Kerry, 56.02% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.69% Obama, 49.36% McCain.

2012 Result: 48.35% Obama, 50.39% Romney,

2016 Result: 46.00% Clinton, 50.00% Trump.

15 Electoral votes.

22 polls

Biden: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Change Res 16-Oct-20 19-Oct-20 521 --- 50.0 47.0 B+3.0
Ipsos 14-Oct-20 20-Oct-20 660 4.3 49.0 47.0 B+2.0
WaPo-ABC 12-Oct-20 17-Oct-20 646 4.5 49.0 48.0 B+1.0
Emerson 13-Oct-20 14-Oct-20 721 3.6 48.9 48.9 0.0
Civiqs 11-Oct-20 14-Oct-20 1211 3.3 51.0 45.0 B+6.0
Siena 09-Oct-20 13-Oct-20 627 4.5 46.0 42.0 B+4.0
Ipsos 07-Oct-20 13-Oct-20 660 4.3 48.0 48.0 0.0
SurveyUSA 08-Oct-20 11-Oct-20 669 4.8 50.0 45.0 B+5.0
Monmouth 08-Oct-20 11-Oct-20 500 4.4 50.0 46.0 B+4.0
Susquehanna 07-Oct-20 11-Oct-20 500 4.3 48.0 46.0 B+2.0
Morning Consult 02-Oct-20 11-Oct-20 1993 2.2 50.0 46.0 B+4.0
RWS 04-Oct-20 06-Oct-20 438 --- 49.0 44.0 B+5.0
PPP 04-Oct-20 05-Oct-20 911 --- 50.0 46.0 B+4.0
Change Res 02-Oct-20 04-Oct-20 396 --- 49.0 47.0 B+2.0
ECU 02-Oct-20 04-Oct-20 1232 3.2 50.2 46.2 B+4.0
Data for Progress 30-Sep-20 05-Oct-20 1285 --- 51.0 44.0 B+7.0
Ipsos 29-Sep-20 06-Oct-20 501 5.0 57.0 47.0 B+10.0
Hart Res 24-Sep-20 27-Sep-20 400 4.9 49.0 47.0 B+2.0
RWS 23-Sep-20 26-Sep-20 1035 --- 47.0 45.0 B+2.0
YouGov 22-Sep-20 25-Sep-20 1213 3.6 48.0 46.0 B+2.0
UMASS-Lowell 18-Sep-20 25-Sep-20 921 4.1 47.0 47.0 0.0


North Dakota

2004 Result: 35.50% Kerry, 62.86% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.62% Obama, 53.25% McCain.

2012 Result: 38.69% Obama, 58.32% Romney,

2016 Result: 27.00% Clinton, 63.00% Trump.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 1.3% wins (1,272 wins ), Trump: 98.7% wins (98,728 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
DFM Res 26-Sep-20 29-Sep-20 460 4.6 37.0 51.0 T+14.0


Ohio

2004 Result: 48.71% Kerry, 50.81% Bush.

2008 Result: 51.50% Obama, 46.91% McCain.

2012 Result: 50.67% Obama, 47.69% Romney,

2016 Result: 44.00% Clinton, 52.00% Trump.

18 Electoral votes.

11 polls

Biden: 18.4% wins (18,356 wins ), Trump: 81.6% wins (81,644 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Fox News 17-Oct-20 20-Oct-20 1018 3.0 45.0 48.0 T+3.0
Rasmussen 18-Oct-20 19-Oct-20 800 3.5 48.0 47.0 B+1.0
Quinnipiac 08-Oct-20 12-Oct-20 1160 3.0 48.0 47.0 B+1.0
Civiqs 08-Oct-20 11-Oct-20 586 4.2 47.0 50.0 T+3.0
Morning Consult 02-Oct-20 11-Oct-20 2883 2.1 46.0 49.0 T+3.0
Baldwin Wallace 30-Sep-20 08-Oct-20 1009 3.1 45.4 47.0 T+1.6
Siena 02-Oct-20 06-Oct-20 661 4.3 45.0 44.0 B+1.0
Trafalgar 01-Oct-20 03-Oct-20 1035 3.0 43.9 47.6 T+3.7
YouGov 30-Sep-20 02-Oct-20 1114 3.7 47.0 47.0 0.0
Hart Res 24-Sep-20 27-Sep-20 400 4.9 47.0 49.0 T+2.0
Fox News 20-Sep-20 23-Sep-20 830 3.0 50.0 45.0 B+5.0


Oklahoma

2004 Result: 34.43% Kerry, 65.57% Bush.

2008 Result: 34.35% Obama, 65.64% McCain.

2012 Result: 33.23% Obama, 66.77% Romney,

2016 Result: 29.00% Clinton, 65.00% Trump.

7 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Sooner 15-Oct-20 20-Oct-20 5466 1.3 36.5 58.5 T+21.9


Oregon

2004 Result: 51.35% Kerry, 47.19% Bush.

2008 Result: 56.75% Obama, 40.40% McCain.

2012 Result: 54.24% Obama, 42.15% Romney,

2016 Result: 50.00% Clinton, 39.00% Trump.

7 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Civiqs 26-Sep-20 29-Sep-20 944 3.5 56.0 39.0 B+17.0


Pennsylvania

2004 Result: 50.92% Kerry, 48.42% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.64% Obama, 44.29% McCain.

2012 Result: 51.97% Obama, 46.59% Romney,

2016 Result: 47.00% Clinton, 48.00% Trump.

20 Electoral votes.

29 polls

Biden: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Fox News 17-Oct-20 20-Oct-20 1045 3.0 50.0 45.0 B+5.0
Rasmussen 18-Oct-20 19-Oct-20 800 3.5 50.0 47.0 B+3.0
SRSS 15-Oct-20 20-Oct-20 843 4.0 53.0 43.0 B+10.0
Quinnipiac 16-Oct-20 19-Oct-20 1241 2.8 51.0 43.0 B+8.0
Change Res 16-Oct-20 19-Oct-20 574 --- 49.0 47.0 B+2.0
Suffolk 15-Oct-20 19-Oct-20 500 --- 48.6 42.4 B+6.2
Ipsos 13-Oct-20 19-Oct-20 653 4.4 49.0 45.0 B+4.0
Trafalgar 13-Oct-20 15-Oct-20 1041 3.0 47.5 46.4 B+1.1
Harris 12-Oct-20 15-Oct-20 992 --- 51.0 46.0 B+5.0
Insider Advantage 12-Oct-20 13-Oct-20 400 4.9 45.8 42.6 B+3.2
Trafalgar 10-Oct-20 12-Oct-20 1034 3.0 47.7 45.1 B+2.6
RMG Res 07-Oct-20 12-Oct-20 800 --- 49.0 43.0 B+6.0
Civiqs 08-Oct-20 11-Oct-20 600 4.2 52.0 45.0 B+7.0
Ipsos 06-Oct-20 11-Oct-20 622 4.5 51.0 45.0 B+6.0
Whitman 05-Oct-20 09-Oct-20 517 4.3 51.0 46.0 B+5.0
RWS 04-Oct-20 06-Oct-20 927 --- 49.0 42.0 B+7.0
Emerson 04-Oct-20 05-Oct-20 688 3.7 50.2 45.4 B+4.8
Baldwin Wallace 30-Sep-20 08-Oct-20 1140 3.1 49.6 44.5 B+5.1
Quinnipiac 01-Oct-20 05-Oct-20 1211 2.8 54.0 41.0 B+13.0
Change Res 02-Oct-20 04-Oct-20 468 --- 50.0 46.0 B+4.0
Ipsos 29-Sep-20 05-Oct-20 605 --- 50.0 45.0 B+5.0
Monmouth 30-Sep-20 04-Oct-20 500 4.4 54.0 43.0 B+11.0
YouGov 30-Sep-20 02-Oct-20 1187 3.1 51.0 44.0 B+7.0
Siena 30-Sep-20 02-Oct-20 706 4.1 49.0 42.0 B+7.0
Siena 25-Sep-20 27-Sep-20 711 4.3 49.0 40.0 B+9.0
TIPP 24-Sep-20 26-Sep-20 744 3.6 49.7 44.6 B+5.0
RWS 23-Sep-20 25-Sep-20 972 --- 50.0 44.0 B+6.0
WaPo-ABC 21-Sep-20 26-Sep-20 568 5.0 54.0 45.0 B+9.0
Fox News 20-Sep-20 23-Sep-20 856 3.0 51.0 44.0 B+7.0


Rhode Island

2004 Result: 59.42% Kerry, 38.67% Bush.

2008 Result: 63.13% Obama, 35.21% McCain.

2012 Result: 62.70% Obama, 35.24% Romney,

2016 Result: 54.00% Clinton, 39.00% Trump.

4 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Biden assumed to win all elections based on past 4 elections.



South Carolina

2004 Result: 40.90% Kerry, 57.98% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.90% Obama, 53.87% McCain.

2012 Result: 44.09% Obama, 54.56% Romney,

2016 Result: 41.00% Clinton, 55.00% Trump.

9 Electoral votes.

7 polls

Biden: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Siena 09-Oct-20 11-Oct-20 605 4.5 41.0 49.0 T+8.0
Data for Progress 08-Oct-20 11-Oct-20 801 3.5 43.0 52.0 T+9.0
Morning Consult 02-Oct-20 11-Oct-20 903 3.3 42.0 54.0 T+12.0
GBAO 24-Sep-20 28-Sep-20 800 3.5 44.0 49.0 T+5.0
Data for Progress 23-Sep-20 28-Sep-20 824 3.4 45.0 50.0 T+5.0
Quinnipiac 23-Sep-20 27-Sep-20 1123 2.9 47.0 48.0 T+1.0
YouGov 22-Sep-20 25-Sep-20 1080 3.8 42.0 52.0 T+10.0


South Dakota

2004 Result: 38.44% Kerry, 59.91% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.75% Obama, 53.16% McCain.

2012 Result: 39.87% Obama, 57.89% Romney,

2016 Result: 32.00% Clinton, 62.00% Trump.

3 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Trump assumed to win all elections based on past 4 elections.



Tennessee

2004 Result: 42.53% Kerry, 56.80% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.83% Obama, 56.90% McCain.

2012 Result: 39.08% Obama, 59.48% Romney,

2016 Result: 35.00% Clinton, 61.00% Trump.

11 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Biden: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
SRSS 05-May-20 22-May-20 1000 3.8 42.0 51.0 T+9.0
E_TN_U 22-Apr-20 01-May-20 536 --- 36.0 53.0 T+17.0


Texas

2004 Result: 38.22% Kerry, 61.09% Bush.

2008 Result: 43.68% Obama, 55.45% McCain.

2012 Result: 41.38% Obama, 57.17% Romney,

2016 Result: 43.00% Clinton, 52.00% Trump.

38 Electoral votes.

12 polls

Biden: 11.0% wins (11,017 wins ), Trump: 89.0% wins (88,983 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Quinnipiac 16-Oct-20 19-Oct-20 1145 2.9 47.0 47.0 0.0
Data for Progress 15-Oct-20 18-Oct-20 933 3.2 47.0 46.0 B+1.0
PPP 07-Oct-20 08-Oct-20 612 --- 48.0 48.0 0.0
Morning Consult 02-Oct-20 11-Oct-20 3455 1.7 47.0 49.0 T+2.0
Pulse 05-Oct-20 06-Oct-20 1000 3.0 41.0 51.0 T+10.0
Civiqs 03-Oct-20 06-Oct-20 895 3.4 48.0 48.0 0.0
Data for Progress 30-Sep-20 05-Oct-20 1949 --- 47.0 45.0 B+2.0
EMC Res 27-Sep-20 02-Oct-20 648 --- 49.0 49.0 0.0
YouGov 25-Sep-20 04-Oct-20 908 4.2 45.0 50.0 T+5.0
Hart Res 24-Sep-20 27-Sep-20 400 4.9 47.0 49.0 T+2.0
PPP 25-Sep-20 26-Sep-20 612 3.6 48.0 48.0 0.0
UMASS-Lowell 18-Sep-20 25-Sep-20 882 4.3 46.0 49.0 T+3.0


Utah

2004 Result: 26.00% Kerry, 71.54% Bush.

2008 Result: 34.41% Obama, 62.58% McCain.

2012 Result: 24.75% Obama, 72.79% Romney,

2016 Result: 27.00% Clinton, 46.00% Trump.

6 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 0.3% wins (331 wins ), Trump: 99.7% wins (99,669 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Y2Analytics 26-Sep-20 04-Oct-20 1214 2.8 40.0 50.0 T+10.0


Vermont

2004 Result: 58.94% Kerry, 38.80% Bush.

2008 Result: 67.44% Obama, 30.44% McCain.

2012 Result: 66.57% Obama, 30.97% Romney,

2016 Result: 57.00% Clinton, 30.00% Trump.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Braun Res 03-Sep-20 15-Sep-20 586 4.0 56.0 32.0 B+24.0


Virginia

2004 Result: 45.48% Kerry, 53.68% Bush.

2008 Result: 52.63% Obama, 46.33% McCain.

2012 Result: 51.16% Obama, 47.28% Romney,

2016 Result: 50.00% Clinton, 44.00% Trump.

13 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Biden: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Civiqs 11-Oct-20 14-Oct-20 1231 3.1 55.0 42.0 B+13.0
Roanoke 30-Sep-20 12-Oct-20 602 5.4 53.0 38.0 B+15.0


Washington

2004 Result: 52.82% Kerry, 45.64% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.65% Obama, 40.48% McCain.

2012 Result: 56.16% Obama, 41.29% Romney,

2016 Result: 53.00% Clinton, 37.00% Trump.

12 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Biden: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
PPP 14-Oct-20 15-Oct-20 610 4.0 60.0 37.0 B+23.0
SurveyUSA 08-Oct-20 08-Oct-20 591 5.2 55.0 34.0 B+21.0


West Virginia

2004 Result: 43.20% Kerry, 56.06% Bush.

2008 Result: 42.59% Obama, 55.71% McCain.

2012 Result: 35.54% Obama, 62.30% Romney,

2016 Result: 26.00% Clinton, 69.00% Trump.

5 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Biden: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Res America 01-Oct-20 06-Oct-20 450 --- 39.0 53.0 T+14.0
Triton 29-Sep-20 30-Sep-20 525 4.3 38.0 56.0 T+18.0


Wisconsin

2004 Result: 49.70% Kerry, 49.32% Bush.

2008 Result: 56.22% Obama, 42.31% McCain.

2012 Result: 52.83% Obama, 45.89% Romney,

2016 Result: 46.00% Clinton, 47.00% Trump.

10 Electoral votes.

23 polls

Biden: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Fox News 17-Oct-20 20-Oct-20 1037 3.0 49.0 44.0 B+5.0
Susquehanna 16-Oct-20 19-Oct-20 500 4.3 45.2 44.6 B+0.6
Change Res 16-Oct-20 19-Oct-20 447 --- 52.0 44.0 B+8.0
Latino Decisions 14-Oct-20 19-Oct-20 400 5.0 50.0 45.0 B+5.0
Ipsos 13-Oct-20 19-Oct-20 663 4.3 51.0 45.0 B+6.0
Trafalgar 14-Oct-20 16-Oct-20 1051 2.9 47.6 46.3 B+1.3
YouGov 13-Oct-20 16-Oct-20 1112 3.5 51.0 46.0 B+5.0
Trafalgar 11-Oct-20 13-Oct-20 1043 3.0 47.3 45.4 B+1.9
David Binder 10-Oct-20 13-Oct-20 200 --- 53.0 43.0 B+10.0
Civiqs 08-Oct-20 11-Oct-20 560 4.4 53.0 45.0 B+8.0
Siena 06-Oct-20 11-Oct-20 789 4.0 51.0 41.0 B+10.0
Ipsos 06-Oct-20 11-Oct-20 577 4.7 52.0 45.0 B+7.0
Morning Consult 02-Oct-20 11-Oct-20 1067 3.0 51.0 44.0 B+7.0
RWS 04-Oct-20 07-Oct-20 688 --- 51.0 41.0 B+10.0
Baldwin Wallace 30-Sep-20 08-Oct-20 883 3.4 49.2 42.5 B+6.7
Change Res 02-Oct-20 04-Oct-20 442 --- 51.0 44.0 B+7.0
Ipsos 29-Sep-20 05-Oct-20 601 --- 50.0 44.0 B+6.0
Marquette 30-Sep-20 04-Oct-20 700 --- 46.9 42.3 B+4.6
Trafalgar 25-Sep-20 28-Sep-20 1084 2.9 47.2 44.3 B+2.9
RWS 23-Sep-20 27-Sep-20 648 --- 48.0 43.0 B+5.0
Susquehanna 23-Sep-20 26-Sep-20 500 4.3 40.0 43.0 T+3.0
Trafalgar 22-Sep-20 24-Sep-20 1189 2.8 47.7 44.9 B+2.8
Marist 20-Sep-20 24-Sep-20 727 4.6 54.0 44.0 B+10.0


Wyoming

2004 Result: 29.07% Kerry, 68.86% Bush.

2008 Result: 32.54% Obama, 64.78% McCain.

2012 Result: 27.82% Obama, 68.64% Romney,

2016 Result: 22.00% Clinton, 67.00% Trump.

3 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Trump assumed to win all elections based on past 4 elections.