Biden versus Trump using polls from 07-Jul-19 to 07-Jul-20


Alabama

2004 Result: 36.84% Kerry, 62.46% Bush.

2008 Result: 38.74% Obama, 60.32% McCain.

2012 Result: 38.36% Obama, 60.55% Romney,

2016 Result: 34.00% Clinton, 62.00% Trump.

9 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 0.4% wins (407 wins ), Trump: 99.6% wins (99,593 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
FMZ Res 14-May-20 18-May-20 601 4.0 39.0 53.0 T+14.0


Alaska

2004 Result: 35.52% Kerry, 61.07% Bush.

2008 Result: 37.89% Obama, 59.43% McCain.

2012 Result: 40.81% Obama, 54.80% Romney,

2016 Result: 37.00% Clinton, 51.00% Trump.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 23.8% wins (23,799 wins ), Trump: 76.2% wins (76,201 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Zogby 22-Jul-19 09-Aug-19 321 --- 40.0 45.0 T+5.0


Arizona

2004 Result: 44.40% Kerry, 54.87% Bush.

2008 Result: 45.11% Obama, 53.63% McCain.

2012 Result: 44.59% Obama, 53.65% Romney,

2016 Result: 45.00% Clinton, 49.00% Trump.

11 Electoral votes.

7 polls

Biden: 94.6% wins (94,568 wins ), Trump: 5.4% wins (5,432 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Data Orbital 27-Jun-20 29-Jun-20 600 4.0 47.1 45.4 B+1.7
Change Res 26-Jun-20 28-Jun-20 311 --- 45.0 44.0 B+1.0
Gravis 27-Jun-20 27-Jun-20 527 4.3 45.0 49.0 T+4.0
RWS 14-Jun-20 17-Jun-20 865 --- 43.0 39.0 B+4.0
Civiqs 13-Jun-20 15-Jun-20 1368 2.9 49.0 45.0 B+4.0
Change Res 12-Jun-20 14-Jun-20 201 --- 50.0 43.0 B+7.0
Siena 08-Jun-20 16-Jun-20 650 4.3 48.0 41.0 B+7.0


Arkansas

2004 Result: 44.55% Kerry, 54.31% Bush.

2008 Result: 38.86% Obama, 58.72% McCain.

2012 Result: 36.88% Obama, 60.57% Romney,

2016 Result: 34.00% Clinton, 61.00% Trump.

6 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 32.8% wins (32,799 wins ), Trump: 67.2% wins (67,201 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Hendrix Col 09-Jun-20 10-Jun-20 869 3.3 45.0 47.0 T+2.0


California

2004 Result: 54.31% Kerry, 44.36% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.01% Obama, 36.95% McCain.

2012 Result: 60.24% Obama, 37.12% Romney,

2016 Result: 62.00% Clinton, 32.00% Trump.

55 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Biden: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
PPIC 17-May-20 26-May-20 1048 3.5 57.0 33.0 B+24.0
SurveyUSA 18-May-20 19-May-20 537 5.4 57.5 30.2 B+27.4
Emerson 08-May-20 09-May-20 800 3.4 59.0 29.0 B+30.0


Colorado

2004 Result: 47.02% Kerry, 51.69% Bush.

2008 Result: 53.66% Obama, 44.71% McCain.

2012 Result: 51.49% Obama, 46.13% Romney,

2016 Result: 48.00% Clinton, 43.00% Trump.

9 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 100.0% wins (99,982 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (18 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
PPP 29-Jun-20 30-Jun-20 840 --- 56.0 39.0 B+17.0


Connecticut

2004 Result: 54.31% Kerry, 43.95% Bush.

2008 Result: 60.59% Obama, 38.22% McCain.

2012 Result: 58.06% Obama, 40.73% Romney,

2016 Result: 55.00% Clinton, 41.00% Trump.

7 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Quinnipiac 30-Apr-20 04-May-20 915 3.2 56.0 33.0 B+23.0


Delaware

2004 Result: 53.35% Kerry, 45.75% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.94% Obama, 36.95% McCain.

2012 Result: 58.61% Obama, 39.98% Romney,

2016 Result: 53.00% Clinton, 42.00% Trump.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 98.7% wins (98,704 wins ), Trump: 1.3% wins (1,296 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Gonzalez 16-Jan-20 21-Jan-20 410 5.0 55.9 40.2 B+15.6


D.C.

2004 Result: 89.18% Kerry, 9.34% Bush.

2008 Result: 92.46% Obama, 6.53% McCain.

2012 Result: 90.91% Obama, 7.28% Romney,

2016 Result: 90.00% Clinton, 4.00% Trump.

3 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Biden assumed to win all elections based on past 4 elections.



Florida

2004 Result: 47.09% Kerry, 52.10% Bush.

2008 Result: 51.03% Obama, 48.22% McCain.

2012 Result: 50.01% Obama, 49.13% Romney,

2016 Result: 48.00% Clinton, 49.00% Trump.

29 Electoral votes.

8 polls

Biden: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Trafalgar 29-Jun-20 02-Jul-20 1072 2.9 45.9 45.9 0.0
Change Res 26-Jun-20 28-Jun-20 951 --- 50.0 43.0 B+7.0
Fox News 20-Jun-20 23-Jun-20 1010 3.0 49.0 40.0 B+9.0
Hart Res 19-Jun-20 22-Jun-20 800 --- 47.0 38.0 B+9.0
RWS 14-Jun-20 15-Jun-20 1079 --- 49.0 38.0 B+11.0
Siena 08-Jun-20 18-Jun-20 651 4.6 47.0 41.0 B+6.0
Change Res 12-Jun-20 14-Jun-20 713 --- 50.0 43.0 B+7.0
TIPP 09-Jun-20 11-Jun-20 875 --- 50.2 39.7 B+10.4


Georgia

2004 Result: 41.37% Kerry, 57.97% Bush.

2008 Result: 46.99% Obama, 52.20% McCain.

2012 Result: 45.48% Obama, 53.30% Romney,

2016 Result: 46.00% Clinton, 51.00% Trump.

16 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Biden: 83.7% wins (83,741 wins ), Trump: 16.3% wins (16,259 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
PPP 25-Jun-20 26-Jun-20 734 --- 49.0 45.0 B+4.0
Fox News 20-Jun-20 23-Jun-20 1013 3.0 47.0 45.0 B+2.0
PPP 12-Jun-20 13-Jun-20 661 --- 48.0 46.0 B+2.0


Hawaii

2004 Result: 54.01% Kerry, 45.26% Bush.

2008 Result: 71.85% Obama, 26.58% McCain.

2012 Result: 70.55% Obama, 27.84% Romney,

2016 Result: 62.00% Clinton, 30.00% Trump.

4 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Biden assumed to win all elections based on past 4 elections.



Idaho

2004 Result: 30.26% Kerry, 68.38% Bush.

2008 Result: 36.10% Obama, 61.53% McCain.

2012 Result: 32.62% Obama, 64.53% Romney,

2016 Result: 27.00% Clinton, 59.00% Trump.

4 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Trump assumed to win all elections based on past 4 elections.



Illinois

2004 Result: 54.82% Kerry, 44.48% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.92% Obama, 36.78% McCain.

2012 Result: 57.60% Obama, 40.73% Romney,

2016 Result: 56.00% Clinton, 39.00% Trump.

20 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Biden assumed to win all elections based on past 4 elections.



Indiana

2004 Result: 39.26% Kerry, 59.94% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.95% Obama, 48.91% McCain.

2012 Result: 43.93% Obama, 54.13% Romney,

2016 Result: 38.00% Clinton, 57.00% Trump.

11 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 0.1% wins (129 wins ), Trump: 99.9% wins (99,871 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Change Res 10-Apr-20 13-Apr-20 1021 3.1 39.0 52.0 T+13.0


Iowa

2004 Result: 49.23% Kerry, 49.90% Bush.

2008 Result: 53.93% Obama, 44.39% McCain.

2012 Result: 51.99% Obama, 46.18% Romney,

2016 Result: 42.00% Clinton, 51.00% Trump.

6 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Biden: 44.2% wins (44,244 wins ), Trump: 55.8% wins (55,756 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Selzer 07-Jun-20 10-Jun-20 674 3.8 43.0 44.0 T+1.0
Civiqs 06-Jun-20 08-Jun-20 865 3.7 46.0 46.0 0.0


Kansas

2004 Result: 36.62% Kerry, 62.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.65% Obama, 56.61% McCain.

2012 Result: 37.99% Obama, 59.71% Romney,

2016 Result: 36.00% Clinton, 57.00% Trump.

6 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 1.1% wins (1,126 wins ), Trump: 98.9% wins (98,874 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Civiqs 30-May-20 01-Jun-20 699 4.2 40.0 52.0 T+12.0


Kentucky

2004 Result: 39.69% Kerry, 59.55% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.17% Obama, 57.40% McCain.

2012 Result: 37.80% Obama, 60.49% Romney,

2016 Result: 33.00% Clinton, 63.00% Trump.

8 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Civiqs 13-Jun-20 15-Jun-20 898 3.8 37.0 57.0 T+20.0


Louisiana

2004 Result: 42.22% Kerry, 56.72% Bush.

2008 Result: 39.93% Obama, 58.56% McCain.

2012 Result: 40.58% Obama, 57.78% Romney,

2016 Result: 38.00% Clinton, 58.00% Trump.

8 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Trump assumed to win all elections based on past 4 elections.



Maine

2004 Result: 53.57% Kerry, 44.58% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.67% Obama, 40.36% McCain.

2012 Result: 56.27% Obama, 40.98% Romney,

2016 Result: 48.00% Clinton, 45.00% Trump.

2 Electoral votes. Maine allocates an elector to the winner of each congressional district, and two more electoral votes for the state-wide popular vote winner.

1 poll

Biden: 99.6% wins (99,603 wins ), Trump: 0.4% wins (397 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
PPP 02-Jul-20 03-Jul-20 1022 --- 53.0 42.0 B+11.0


Maine-1

2004 Result: 43.00% Kerry, 55.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 60.51% Obama, 37.69% McCain.

2012 Result: 59.57% Obama, 38.18% Romney,

2016 Result: 54.00% Clinton, 39.00% Trump.

1 Electoral vote.

1 poll

Biden: 99.9% wins (99,921 wins ), Trump: 0.1% wins (79 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
PPP 11-Oct-19 13-Oct-19 478 --- 58.0 38.0 B+20.0


Maine-2

2004 Result: 46.00% Kerry, 52.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.61% Obama, 43.35% McCain.

2012 Result: 52.94% Obama, 44.38% Romney,

2016 Result: 41.00% Clinton, 51.00% Trump.

1 Electoral vote.

1 poll

Biden: 69.3% wins (69,256 wins ), Trump: 30.7% wins (30,744 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
PPP 11-Oct-19 13-Oct-19 461 --- 49.0 46.0 B+3.0


Maryland

2004 Result: 55.91% Kerry, 42.93% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.92% Obama, 36.47% McCain.

2012 Result: 61.97% Obama, 35.90% Romney,

2016 Result: 60.00% Clinton, 34.00% Trump.

10 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Gonzalez Res 19-May-20 23-May-20 810 3.5 59.1 35.3 B+23.8


Massachusetts

2004 Result: 61.94% Kerry, 36.78% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.80% Obama, 35.99% McCain.

2012 Result: 60.65% Obama, 37.51% Romney,

2016 Result: 60.00% Clinton, 33.00% Trump.

11 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Biden: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Emerson 05-May-20 06-May-20 740 3.5 60.0 30.0 B+30.0
UMass-Lowell 27-Apr-20 01-May-20 1000 3.6 58.0 30.0 B+28.0


Michigan

2004 Result: 51.23% Kerry, 47.81% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.43% Obama, 40.96% McCain.

2012 Result: 54.21% Obama, 44.71% Romney,

2016 Result: 47.00% Clinton, 48.00% Trump.

16 Electoral votes.

8 polls

Biden: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Change Res 26-Jun-20 28-Jun-20 699 --- 47.0 45.0 B+2.0
PPP 26-Jun-20 27-Jun-20 1237 --- 50.0 44.0 B+6.0
Hodas 17-Jun-20 20-Jun-20 600 --- 54.3 36.8 B+17.5
Trafalgar 16-Jun-20 18-Jun-20 1101 3.0 46.2 45.3 B+0.9
RWS 14-Jun-20 16-Jun-20 826 --- 47.0 36.0 B+11.0
Change Res 12-Jun-20 14-Jun-20 353 --- 47.0 45.0 B+2.0
Siena 08-Jun-20 17-Jun-20 610 4.3 47.0 36.0 B+11.0
TIPP 09-Jun-20 11-Jun-20 859 --- 49.8 36.7 B+13.1


Minnesota

2004 Result: 51.09% Kerry, 47.61% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.06% Obama, 43.82% McCain.

2012 Result: 52.65% Obama, 44.96% Romney,

2016 Result: 46.00% Clinton, 45.00% Trump.

10 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 99.9% wins (99,875 wins ), Trump: 0.1% wins (125 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Gravis 19-Jun-20 19-Jun-20 600 4.0 54.0 37.0 B+17.0


Mississippi

2004 Result: 39.75% Kerry, 59.44% Bush.

2008 Result: 43.00% Obama, 56.18% McCain.

2012 Result: 43.79% Obama, 55.29% Romney,

2016 Result: 40.00% Clinton, 58.00% Trump.

6 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 6.0% wins (5,970 wins ), Trump: 94.0% wins (94,030 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Millsaps 02-Jun-20 04-Jun-20 568 4.1 41.0 50.0 T+9.0


Missouri

2004 Result: 46.10% Kerry, 53.30% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.29% Obama, 49.43% McCain.

2012 Result: 44.38% Obama, 53.76% Romney,

2016 Result: 38.00% Clinton, 57.00% Trump.

10 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Biden: 10.2% wins (10,218 wins ), Trump: 89.8% wins (89,782 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Garin Hart Yang 16-Jun-20 22-Jun-20 800 3.5 48.0 46.0 B+2.0
Remington 10-Jun-20 11-Jun-20 1152 2.9 43.0 51.0 T+8.0


Montana

2004 Result: 38.56% Kerry, 59.07% Bush.

2008 Result: 47.25% Obama, 49.52% McCain.

2012 Result: 41.70% Obama, 55.35% Romney,

2016 Result: 36.00% Clinton, 56.00% Trump.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 0.8% wins (812 wins ), Trump: 99.2% wins (99,188 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Big Sky 17-Jun-20 26-Jun-20 517 4.3 37.9 52.3 T+14.4


Nebraska

2004 Result: 32.68% Kerry, 65.90% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.60% Obama, 56.53% McCain.

2012 Result: 38.03% Obama, 59.80% Romney,

2016 Result: 34.00% Clinton, 59.00% Trump.

2 Electoral votes. Nebraska allocates an elector to the winner of each congressional district, and two more electoral votes for the state-wide popular vote winner.

0 polls

Trump assumed to win all elections based on past 4 elections.



Nebraska-1

2004 Result: 36.00% Kerry, 63.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.34% Obama, 54.09% McCain.

2012 Result: 40.95% Obama, 57.59% Romney,

2016 Result: 35.00% Clinton, 56.00% Trump.

1 Electoral vote.

0 polls

Trump assumed to win all elections based on past 4 elections.



Nebraska-2

2004 Result: 38.00% Kerry, 60.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.96% Obama, 48.76% McCain.

2012 Result: 45.78% Obama, 52.95% Romney,

2016 Result: 45.00% Clinton, 47.00% Trump.

1 Electoral vote.

1 poll

Biden: 96.0% wins (95,977 wins ), Trump: 4.0% wins (4,023 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
DCCC 07-May-20 10-May-20 448 4.6 52.0 41.0 B+11.0


Nebraska-3

2004 Result: 24.00% Kerry, 75.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 29.63% Obama, 68.64% McCain.

2012 Result: 27.94% Obama, 70.56% Romney,

2016 Result: 20.00% Clinton, 74.00% Trump.

1 Electoral vote.

0 polls

Trump assumed to win all elections based on past 4 elections.



Nevada

2004 Result: 47.88% Kerry, 50.47% Bush.

2008 Result: 55.15% Obama, 42.65% McCain.

2012 Result: 52.36% Obama, 45.68% Romney,

2016 Result: 48.00% Clinton, 46.00% Trump.

6 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 79.2% wins (79,174 wins ), Trump: 20.8% wins (20,826 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
ALG Res 27-Apr-20 30-Apr-20 763 3.6 49.0 45.0 B+4.0


New Hampshire

2004 Result: 50.24% Kerry, 48.87% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.13% Obama, 44.52% McCain.

2012 Result: 51.98% Obama, 46.40% Romney,

2016 Result: 47.00% Clinton, 47.00% Trump.

4 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 95.1% wins (95,077 wins ), Trump: 4.9% wins (4,923 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
St Anselm 13-Jun-20 16-Jun-20 1072 3.0 49.2 42.4 B+6.8


New Jersey

2004 Result: 52.92% Kerry, 46.24% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.27% Obama, 41.70% McCain.

2012 Result: 58.38% Obama, 40.59% Romney,

2016 Result: 55.00% Clinton, 41.00% Trump.

14 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Biden: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Quinnipiac 30-Apr-20 04-May-20 941 3.2 54.0 35.0 B+19.0
Rutgers 22-Apr-20 02-May-20 698 4.2 56.0 33.0 B+23.0


New Mexico

2004 Result: 49.05% Kerry, 49.84% Bush.

2008 Result: 56.91% Obama, 41.78% McCain.

2012 Result: 52.99% Obama, 42.84% Romney,

2016 Result: 48.00% Clinton, 40.00% Trump.

5 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 99.7% wins (99,705 wins ), Trump: 0.3% wins (295 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
PPP 12-Jun-20 13-Jun-20 740 3.6 53.0 39.0 B+14.0


New York

2004 Result: 58.37% Kerry, 40.08% Bush.

2008 Result: 62.88% Obama, 36.03% McCain.

2012 Result: 63.35% Obama, 35.17% Romney,

2016 Result: 59.00% Clinton, 37.00% Trump.

29 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Siena 23-Jun-20 25-Jun-20 806 3.9 57.0 32.0 B+25.0


North Carolina

2004 Result: 43.58% Kerry, 56.02% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.69% Obama, 49.36% McCain.

2012 Result: 48.35% Obama, 50.39% Romney,

2016 Result: 46.00% Clinton, 50.00% Trump.

15 Electoral votes.

8 polls

Biden: 94.1% wins (94,058 wins ), Trump: 5.9% wins (5,942 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Change Res 26-Jun-20 28-Jun-20 468 --- 47.0 45.0 B+2.0
ECU 22-Jun-20 25-Jun-20 1149 3.4 45.0 44.0 B+1.0
PPP 22-Jun-20 23-Jun-20 1157 --- 48.0 46.0 B+2.0
Fox News 20-Jun-20 23-Jun-20 1012 3.0 47.0 45.0 B+2.0
Gravis 17-Jun-20 17-Jun-20 631 3.9 43.0 46.0 T+3.0
RWS 14-Jun-20 17-Jun-20 902 --- 46.0 40.0 B+6.0
Siena 08-Jun-20 18-Jun-20 653 4.1 49.0 40.0 B+9.0
Change Res 12-Jun-20 14-Jun-20 378 --- 47.0 45.0 B+2.0


North Dakota

2004 Result: 35.50% Kerry, 62.86% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.62% Obama, 53.25% McCain.

2012 Result: 38.69% Obama, 58.32% Romney,

2016 Result: 27.00% Clinton, 63.00% Trump.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 0.6% wins (576 wins ), Trump: 99.4% wins (99,424 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
DFM Res 03-Mar-20 05-Mar-20 400 4.9 38.0 55.0 T+17.0


Ohio

2004 Result: 48.71% Kerry, 50.81% Bush.

2008 Result: 51.50% Obama, 46.91% McCain.

2012 Result: 50.67% Obama, 47.69% Romney,

2016 Result: 44.00% Clinton, 52.00% Trump.

18 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 59.0% wins (59,040 wins ), Trump: 41.0% wins (40,960 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Quinnipiac 18-Jun-20 22-Jun-20 1139 2.9 46.0 45.0 B+1.0


Oklahoma

2004 Result: 34.43% Kerry, 65.57% Bush.

2008 Result: 34.35% Obama, 65.64% McCain.

2012 Result: 33.23% Obama, 66.77% Romney,

2016 Result: 29.00% Clinton, 65.00% Trump.

7 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Biden: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Amber Integrated 05-Mar-20 08-Mar-20 500 4.4 33.0 57.0 T+24.0
Sooner 10-Feb-20 13-Feb-20 500 4.3 34.0 62.0 T+28.0


Oregon

2004 Result: 51.35% Kerry, 47.19% Bush.

2008 Result: 56.75% Obama, 40.40% McCain.

2012 Result: 54.24% Obama, 42.15% Romney,

2016 Result: 50.00% Clinton, 39.00% Trump.

7 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Biden assumed to win all elections based on past 4 elections.



Pennsylvania

2004 Result: 50.92% Kerry, 48.42% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.64% Obama, 44.29% McCain.

2012 Result: 51.97% Obama, 46.59% Romney,

2016 Result: 47.00% Clinton, 48.00% Trump.

20 Electoral votes.

7 polls

Biden: 100.0% wins (99,981 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (19 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Trafalgar 29-Jun-20 02-Jul-20 1062 2.9 48.0 42.7 B+5.3
Change Res 26-Jun-20 28-Jun-20 760 --- 49.0 46.0 B+3.0
Susquehanna 15-Jun-20 23-Jun-20 715 --- 46.0 41.3 B+4.8
RWS 14-Jun-20 16-Jun-20 1125 --- 49.0 39.0 B+10.0
Change Res 12-Jun-20 14-Jun-20 491 --- 49.0 46.0 B+3.0
Siena 08-Jun-20 16-Jun-20 651 4.2 50.0 40.0 B+10.0
Hodas 08-Jun-20 11-Jun-20 600 --- 53.5 41.8 B+11.7


Rhode Island

2004 Result: 59.42% Kerry, 38.67% Bush.

2008 Result: 63.13% Obama, 35.21% McCain.

2012 Result: 62.70% Obama, 35.24% Romney,

2016 Result: 54.00% Clinton, 39.00% Trump.

4 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Biden assumed to win all elections based on past 4 elections.



South Carolina

2004 Result: 40.90% Kerry, 57.98% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.90% Obama, 53.87% McCain.

2012 Result: 44.09% Obama, 54.56% Romney,

2016 Result: 41.00% Clinton, 55.00% Trump.

9 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 3.5% wins (3,475 wins ), Trump: 96.5% wins (96,525 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Civiqs 23-May-20 26-May-20 591 4.5 42.0 52.0 T+10.0


South Dakota

2004 Result: 38.44% Kerry, 59.91% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.75% Obama, 53.16% McCain.

2012 Result: 39.87% Obama, 57.89% Romney,

2016 Result: 32.00% Clinton, 62.00% Trump.

3 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Trump assumed to win all elections based on past 4 elections.



Tennessee

2004 Result: 42.53% Kerry, 56.80% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.83% Obama, 56.90% McCain.

2012 Result: 39.08% Obama, 59.48% Romney,

2016 Result: 35.00% Clinton, 61.00% Trump.

11 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Biden: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
SRSS 05-May-20 22-May-20 1000 3.8 42.0 51.0 T+9.0
E_TN_U 22-Apr-20 01-May-20 536 --- 36.0 53.0 T+17.0


Texas

2004 Result: 38.22% Kerry, 61.09% Bush.

2008 Result: 43.68% Obama, 55.45% McCain.

2012 Result: 41.38% Obama, 57.17% Romney,

2016 Result: 43.00% Clinton, 52.00% Trump.

38 Electoral votes.

4 polls

Biden: 31.4% wins (31,435 wins ), Trump: 68.6% wins (68,565 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
PPP 24-Jun-20 25-Jun-20 729 --- 48.0 46.0 B+2.0
U TX 19-Jun-20 29-Jun-20 1200 3.3 44.0 48.0 T+4.0
Fox News 20-Jun-20 23-Jun-20 1001 3.0 45.0 44.0 B+1.0
PPP 18-Jun-20 19-Jun-20 907 --- 46.0 48.0 T+2.0


Utah

2004 Result: 26.00% Kerry, 71.54% Bush.

2008 Result: 34.41% Obama, 62.58% McCain.

2012 Result: 24.75% Obama, 72.79% Romney,

2016 Result: 27.00% Clinton, 46.00% Trump.

6 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 0.8% wins (800 wins ), Trump: 99.2% wins (99,200 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Y2Analytics 09-May-20 15-May-20 1078 3.0 38.0 48.0 T+10.0


Vermont

2004 Result: 58.94% Kerry, 38.80% Bush.

2008 Result: 67.44% Obama, 30.44% McCain.

2012 Result: 66.57% Obama, 30.97% Romney,

2016 Result: 57.00% Clinton, 30.00% Trump.

3 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Biden assumed to win all elections based on past 4 elections.



Virginia

2004 Result: 45.48% Kerry, 53.68% Bush.

2008 Result: 52.63% Obama, 46.33% McCain.

2012 Result: 51.16% Obama, 47.28% Romney,

2016 Result: 50.00% Clinton, 44.00% Trump.

13 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 97.9% wins (97,916 wins ), Trump: 2.1% wins (2,084 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Roanoke 03-May-20 16-May-20 563 4.1 51.0 39.0 B+12.0


Washington

2004 Result: 52.82% Kerry, 45.64% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.65% Obama, 40.48% McCain.

2012 Result: 56.16% Obama, 41.29% Romney,

2016 Result: 53.00% Clinton, 37.00% Trump.

12 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Biden: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
PPP 19-May-20 20-May-20 1070 3.0 59.0 37.0 B+22.0
SurveyUSA 16-May-20 19-May-20 530 5.5 56.6 31.3 B+25.3


West Virginia

2004 Result: 43.20% Kerry, 56.06% Bush.

2008 Result: 42.59% Obama, 55.71% McCain.

2012 Result: 35.54% Obama, 62.30% Romney,

2016 Result: 26.00% Clinton, 69.00% Trump.

5 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
WPA Intel 07-Jan-20 09-Jan-20 500 4.4 33.0 66.0 T+33.0


Wisconsin

2004 Result: 49.70% Kerry, 49.32% Bush.

2008 Result: 56.22% Obama, 42.31% McCain.

2012 Result: 52.83% Obama, 45.89% Romney,

2016 Result: 46.00% Clinton, 47.00% Trump.

10 Electoral votes.

7 polls

Biden: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Change Res 26-Jun-20 28-Jun-20 502 --- 48.0 44.0 B+4.0
Trafalgar 23-Jun-20 25-Jun-20 1021 3.0 44.6 45.5 T+0.9
RWS 14-Jun-20 19-Jun-20 846 --- 45.0 36.0 B+9.0
Marquette 14-Jun-20 18-Jun-20 805 --- 49.3 41.2 B+8.1
Hodas 12-Jun-20 16-Jun-20 600 --- 54.3 37.8 B+16.5
Change Res 12-Jun-20 14-Jun-20 231 --- 48.0 44.0 B+4.0
Siena 08-Jun-20 15-Jun-20 655 4.3 49.0 38.0 B+11.0


Wyoming

2004 Result: 29.07% Kerry, 68.86% Bush.

2008 Result: 32.54% Obama, 64.78% McCain.

2012 Result: 27.82% Obama, 68.64% Romney,

2016 Result: 22.00% Clinton, 67.00% Trump.

3 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Trump assumed to win all elections based on past 4 elections.