Biden versus Trump using polls from 06-May-19 to 06-May-20


Alabama

2004 Result: 36.84% Kerry, 62.46% Bush.

2008 Result: 38.74% Obama, 60.32% McCain.

2012 Result: 38.36% Obama, 60.55% Romney,

2016 Result: 34.00% Clinton, 62.00% Trump.

9 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Biden: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Mason-Dixon 04-Feb-20 06-Feb-20 625 4.0 38.0 58.0 T+20.0
WPA Intel 07-Jan-20 09-Jan-20 500 --- 38.0 59.0 T+21.0


Alaska

2004 Result: 35.52% Kerry, 61.07% Bush.

2008 Result: 37.89% Obama, 59.43% McCain.

2012 Result: 40.81% Obama, 54.80% Romney,

2016 Result: 37.00% Clinton, 51.00% Trump.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 24.8% wins (24,778 wins ), Trump: 75.2% wins (75,222 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Zogby 22-Jul-19 09-Aug-19 321 --- 40.0 45.0 T+5.0


Arizona

2004 Result: 44.40% Kerry, 54.87% Bush.

2008 Result: 45.11% Obama, 53.63% McCain.

2012 Result: 44.59% Obama, 53.65% Romney,

2016 Result: 45.00% Clinton, 49.00% Trump.

11 Electoral votes.

4 polls

Biden: 97.5% wins (97,473 wins ), Trump: 2.5% wins (2,527 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
OHPI 07-Apr-20 08-Apr-20 600 4.0 52.0 43.0 B+9.0
Marist 10-Mar-20 15-Mar-20 2523 2.7 47.0 46.0 B+1.0
Monmouth 11-Mar-20 14-Mar-20 847 3.4 46.0 43.0 B+3.0
Univision 06-Mar-20 11-Mar-20 1036 3.0 50.0 42.0 B+8.0


Arkansas

2004 Result: 44.55% Kerry, 54.31% Bush.

2008 Result: 38.86% Obama, 58.72% McCain.

2012 Result: 36.88% Obama, 60.57% Romney,

2016 Result: 34.00% Clinton, 61.00% Trump.

6 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
OurProgress 21-Feb-20 25-Feb-20 643 --- 36.1 57.9 T+21.8


California

2004 Result: 54.31% Kerry, 44.36% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.01% Obama, 36.95% McCain.

2012 Result: 60.24% Obama, 37.12% Romney,

2016 Result: 62.00% Clinton, 32.00% Trump.

55 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
PPP 28-Mar-20 29-Mar-20 962 --- 67.0 29.0 B+38.0


Colorado

2004 Result: 47.02% Kerry, 51.69% Bush.

2008 Result: 53.66% Obama, 44.71% McCain.

2012 Result: 51.49% Obama, 46.13% Romney,

2016 Result: 48.00% Clinton, 43.00% Trump.

9 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Biden: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
K-O-M 01-May-20 03-May-20 600 4.0 55.0 36.0 B+19.0
MSU-B 10-Apr-20 19-Apr-20 380 --- 53.2 35.0 B+18.2


Connecticut

2004 Result: 54.31% Kerry, 43.95% Bush.

2008 Result: 60.59% Obama, 38.22% McCain.

2012 Result: 58.06% Obama, 40.73% Romney,

2016 Result: 55.00% Clinton, 41.00% Trump.

7 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 99.9% wins (99,898 wins ), Trump: 0.1% wins (102 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
SacredHeartU 24-Mar-20 03-Apr-20 1000 3.0 47.3 34.1 B+13.2


Delaware

2004 Result: 53.35% Kerry, 45.75% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.94% Obama, 36.95% McCain.

2012 Result: 58.61% Obama, 39.98% Romney,

2016 Result: 53.00% Clinton, 42.00% Trump.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 99.0% wins (98,985 wins ), Trump: 1.0% wins (1,015 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Gonzalez 16-Jan-20 21-Jan-20 410 5.0 55.9 40.2 B+15.6


D.C.

2004 Result: 89.18% Kerry, 9.34% Bush.

2008 Result: 92.46% Obama, 6.53% McCain.

2012 Result: 90.91% Obama, 7.28% Romney,

2016 Result: 90.00% Clinton, 4.00% Trump.

3 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Biden assumed to win all elections based on past 4 elections.



Florida

2004 Result: 47.09% Kerry, 52.10% Bush.

2008 Result: 51.03% Obama, 48.22% McCain.

2012 Result: 50.01% Obama, 49.13% Romney,

2016 Result: 48.00% Clinton, 49.00% Trump.

29 Electoral votes.

7 polls

Biden: 95.2% wins (95,150 wins ), Trump: 4.9% wins (4,850 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Fox News 18-Apr-20 21-Apr-20 1004 3.0 46.0 43.0 B+3.0
Quinnipiac 16-Apr-20 20-Apr-20 1385 2.6 46.0 42.0 B+4.0
St Pete 16-Apr-20 17-Apr-20 5659 1.3 48.3 47.5 B+0.8
UNF 31-Mar-20 04-Apr-20 3244 1.7 46.0 40.0 B+6.0
AtlasIntel 11-Mar-20 16-Mar-20 1100 4.0 45.4 44.9 B+0.5
Univision 06-Mar-20 12-Mar-20 1071 3.0 45.0 48.0 T+3.0
FAU 05-Mar-20 07-Mar-20 1216 2.7 49.0 51.0 T+2.0


Georgia

2004 Result: 41.37% Kerry, 57.97% Bush.

2008 Result: 46.99% Obama, 52.20% McCain.

2012 Result: 45.48% Obama, 53.30% Romney,

2016 Result: 46.00% Clinton, 51.00% Trump.

16 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Biden: 31.0% wins (31,014 wins ), Trump: 69.0% wins (68,986 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Cygnal 25-Apr-20 27-Apr-20 591 4.0 44.2 45.2 T+1.0
Battleground 31-Mar-20 01-Apr-20 1035 3.0 46.0 48.0 T+2.0


Hawaii

2004 Result: 54.01% Kerry, 45.26% Bush.

2008 Result: 71.85% Obama, 26.58% McCain.

2012 Result: 70.55% Obama, 27.84% Romney,

2016 Result: 62.00% Clinton, 30.00% Trump.

4 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Biden assumed to win all elections based on past 4 elections.



Idaho

2004 Result: 30.26% Kerry, 68.38% Bush.

2008 Result: 36.10% Obama, 61.53% McCain.

2012 Result: 32.62% Obama, 64.53% Romney,

2016 Result: 27.00% Clinton, 59.00% Trump.

4 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Trump assumed to win all elections based on past 4 elections.



Illinois

2004 Result: 54.82% Kerry, 44.48% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.92% Obama, 36.78% McCain.

2012 Result: 57.60% Obama, 40.73% Romney,

2016 Result: 56.00% Clinton, 39.00% Trump.

20 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Biden assumed to win all elections based on past 4 elections.



Indiana

2004 Result: 39.26% Kerry, 59.94% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.95% Obama, 48.91% McCain.

2012 Result: 43.93% Obama, 54.13% Romney,

2016 Result: 38.00% Clinton, 57.00% Trump.

11 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 0.0% wins (38 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (99,962 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Change Res 10-Apr-20 13-Apr-20 1021 3.1 39.0 52.0 T+13.0


Iowa

2004 Result: 49.23% Kerry, 49.90% Bush.

2008 Result: 53.93% Obama, 44.39% McCain.

2012 Result: 51.99% Obama, 46.18% Romney,

2016 Result: 42.00% Clinton, 51.00% Trump.

6 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 30.7% wins (30,704 wins ), Trump: 69.3% wins (69,296 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
PPP 20-Apr-20 01-May-20 1222 --- 46.0 48.0 T+2.0


Kansas

2004 Result: 36.62% Kerry, 62.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.65% Obama, 56.61% McCain.

2012 Result: 37.99% Obama, 59.71% Romney,

2016 Result: 36.00% Clinton, 57.00% Trump.

6 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 0.0% wins (19 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (99,981 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
PPP 10-Mar-20 11-Mar-20 1567 --- 40.0 52.0 T+12.0


Kentucky

2004 Result: 39.69% Kerry, 59.55% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.17% Obama, 57.40% McCain.

2012 Result: 37.80% Obama, 60.49% Romney,

2016 Result: 33.00% Clinton, 63.00% Trump.

8 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Biden: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Fabrizio Ward 29-Jul-19 31-Jul-19 600 4.0 41.0 53.0 T+12.0
Gravis 11-Jul-19 12-Jul-19 741 3.6 37.0 57.0 T+20.0


Louisiana

2004 Result: 42.22% Kerry, 56.72% Bush.

2008 Result: 39.93% Obama, 58.56% McCain.

2012 Result: 40.58% Obama, 57.78% Romney,

2016 Result: 38.00% Clinton, 58.00% Trump.

8 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Trump assumed to win all elections based on past 4 elections.



Maine

2004 Result: 53.57% Kerry, 44.58% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.67% Obama, 40.36% McCain.

2012 Result: 56.27% Obama, 40.98% Romney,

2016 Result: 48.00% Clinton, 45.00% Trump.

2 Electoral votes. Maine allocates an elector to the winner of each congressional district, and two more electoral votes for the state-wide popular vote winner.

1 poll

Biden: 98.3% wins (98,321 wins ), Trump: 1.7% wins (1,679 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
PPP 02-Mar-20 03-Mar-20 872 --- 52.0 42.0 B+10.0


Maine-1

2004 Result: 43.00% Kerry, 55.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 60.51% Obama, 37.69% McCain.

2012 Result: 59.57% Obama, 38.18% Romney,

2016 Result: 54.00% Clinton, 39.00% Trump.

1 Electoral vote.

1 poll

Biden: 99.9% wins (99,950 wins ), Trump: 0.1% wins (50 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
PPP 11-Oct-19 13-Oct-19 478 --- 58.0 38.0 B+20.0


Maine-2

2004 Result: 46.00% Kerry, 52.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.61% Obama, 43.35% McCain.

2012 Result: 52.94% Obama, 44.38% Romney,

2016 Result: 41.00% Clinton, 51.00% Trump.

1 Electoral vote.

1 poll

Biden: 69.1% wins (69,132 wins ), Trump: 30.9% wins (30,868 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
PPP 11-Oct-19 13-Oct-19 461 --- 49.0 46.0 B+3.0


Maryland

2004 Result: 55.91% Kerry, 42.93% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.92% Obama, 36.47% McCain.

2012 Result: 61.97% Obama, 35.90% Romney,

2016 Result: 60.00% Clinton, 34.00% Trump.

10 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Goucher 13-Feb-20 19-Feb-20 718 3.6 60.0 35.0 B+25.0


Massachusetts

2004 Result: 61.94% Kerry, 36.78% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.80% Obama, 35.99% McCain.

2012 Result: 60.65% Obama, 37.51% Romney,

2016 Result: 60.00% Clinton, 33.00% Trump.

11 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Emerson Col 04-Apr-19 07-Apr-19 761 3.5 69.0 31.0 B+38.0


Michigan

2004 Result: 51.23% Kerry, 47.81% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.43% Obama, 40.96% McCain.

2012 Result: 54.21% Obama, 44.71% Romney,

2016 Result: 47.00% Clinton, 48.00% Trump.

16 Electoral votes.

15 polls

Biden: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
PPP 28-Apr-20 29-Apr-20 1270 --- 50.0 42.0 B+8.0
PPP 20-Apr-20 21-Apr-20 1277 --- 51.0 44.0 B+7.0
Fox News 18-Apr-20 21-Apr-20 801 3.5 49.0 41.0 B+8.0
IPSOS 15-Apr-20 20-Apr-20 642 4.6 46.0 38.0 B+8.0
RestorationPAC(R) 16-Apr-20 18-Apr-20 600 3.0 49.3 43.2 B+6.1
Hart Res 06-Apr-20 08-Apr-20 303 --- 50.0 41.0 B+9.0
PPP 31-Mar-20 01-Apr-20 1019 3.1 48.0 45.0 B+3.0
SPRY 30-Mar-20 01-Apr-20 602 4.0 45.8 46.1 T+0.3
BWU 17-Mar-20 25-Mar-20 997 3.7 47.3 42.2 B+5.1
MRG 16-Mar-20 20-Mar-20 600 4.0 44.0 41.0 B+3.0
RestorationPAC(R) 12-Mar-20 16-Mar-20 600 --- 50.2 43.7 B+6.5
AtlasIntel 07-Mar-20 09-Mar-20 1100 3.0 44.1 45.5 T+1.4
YouGov 06-Mar-20 08-Mar-20 566 5.8 45.0 41.0 B+4.0
Monmouth 05-Mar-20 08-Mar-20 977 3.1 48.0 41.0 B+7.0
Firehouse(R) 05-Mar-20 07-Mar-20 550 4.6 44.0 46.0 T+2.0


Minnesota

2004 Result: 51.09% Kerry, 47.61% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.06% Obama, 43.82% McCain.

2012 Result: 52.65% Obama, 44.96% Romney,

2016 Result: 46.00% Clinton, 45.00% Trump.

10 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 99.4% wins (99,406 wins ), Trump: 0.6% wins (594 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Mason-Dixon 14-Oct-19 16-Oct-19 800 3.5 50.0 38.0 B+12.0


Mississippi

2004 Result: 39.75% Kerry, 59.44% Bush.

2008 Result: 43.00% Obama, 56.18% McCain.

2012 Result: 43.79% Obama, 55.29% Romney,

2016 Result: 40.00% Clinton, 58.00% Trump.

6 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 2.8% wins (2,779 wins ), Trump: 97.2% wins (97,221 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Millsaps 08-Apr-20 09-Apr-20 508 4.3 38.0 49.0 T+11.0


Missouri

2004 Result: 46.10% Kerry, 53.30% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.29% Obama, 49.43% McCain.

2012 Result: 44.38% Obama, 53.76% Romney,

2016 Result: 38.00% Clinton, 57.00% Trump.

10 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Biden: 0.2% wins (166 wins ), Trump: 99.8% wins (99,834 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Remington 26-Feb-20 27-Feb-20 1050 3.0 42.0 52.0 T+10.0
OurProgress 18-Feb-20 22-Feb-20 698 --- 42.0 51.0 T+9.0


Montana

2004 Result: 38.56% Kerry, 59.07% Bush.

2008 Result: 47.25% Obama, 49.52% McCain.

2012 Result: 41.70% Obama, 55.35% Romney,

2016 Result: 36.00% Clinton, 56.00% Trump.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 17.9% wins (17,925 wins ), Trump: 82.1% wins (82,075 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
MSU-B 10-Apr-20 27-Apr-20 459 --- 39.7 45.3 T+5.7


Nebraska

2004 Result: 32.68% Kerry, 65.90% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.60% Obama, 56.53% McCain.

2012 Result: 38.03% Obama, 59.80% Romney,

2016 Result: 34.00% Clinton, 59.00% Trump.

2 Electoral votes. Nebraska allocates an elector to the winner of each congressional district, and two more electoral votes for the state-wide popular vote winner.

0 polls

Trump assumed to win all elections based on past 4 elections.



Nebraska-1

2004 Result: 36.00% Kerry, 63.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.34% Obama, 54.09% McCain.

2012 Result: 40.95% Obama, 57.59% Romney,

2016 Result: 35.00% Clinton, 56.00% Trump.

1 Electoral vote.

0 polls

Trump assumed to win all elections based on past 4 elections.



Nebraska-2

2004 Result: 38.00% Kerry, 60.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.96% Obama, 48.76% McCain.

2012 Result: 45.78% Obama, 52.95% Romney,

2016 Result: 45.00% Clinton, 47.00% Trump.

1 Electoral vote.

0 polls

Trump assumed to win all elections based on past 4 elections.



Nebraska-3

2004 Result: 24.00% Kerry, 75.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 29.63% Obama, 68.64% McCain.

2012 Result: 27.94% Obama, 70.56% Romney,

2016 Result: 20.00% Clinton, 74.00% Trump.

1 Electoral vote.

0 polls

Trump assumed to win all elections based on past 4 elections.



Nevada

2004 Result: 47.88% Kerry, 50.47% Bush.

2008 Result: 55.15% Obama, 42.65% McCain.

2012 Result: 52.36% Obama, 45.68% Romney,

2016 Result: 48.00% Clinton, 46.00% Trump.

6 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 79.3% wins (79,332 wins ), Trump: 20.7% wins (20,668 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
ALG Res 27-Apr-20 30-Apr-20 763 3.6 49.0 45.0 B+4.0


New Hampshire

2004 Result: 50.24% Kerry, 48.87% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.13% Obama, 44.52% McCain.

2012 Result: 51.98% Obama, 46.40% Romney,

2016 Result: 47.00% Clinton, 47.00% Trump.

4 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 95.6% wins (95,630 wins ), Trump: 4.4% wins (4,370 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
St Anselm 23-Apr-20 27-Apr-20 820 3.4 49.9 41.6 B+8.3


New Jersey

2004 Result: 52.92% Kerry, 46.24% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.27% Obama, 41.70% McCain.

2012 Result: 58.38% Obama, 40.59% Romney,

2016 Result: 55.00% Clinton, 41.00% Trump.

14 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 99.9% wins (99,905 wins ), Trump: 0.1% wins (95 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Monmouth 16-Apr-20 19-Apr-20 635 3.9 54.0 38.0 B+16.0


New Mexico

2004 Result: 49.05% Kerry, 49.84% Bush.

2008 Result: 56.91% Obama, 41.78% McCain.

2012 Result: 52.99% Obama, 42.84% Romney,

2016 Result: 48.00% Clinton, 40.00% Trump.

5 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 99.8% wins (99,808 wins ), Trump: 0.2% wins (192 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
PPP 20-Apr-20 21-Apr-20 1009 3.1 52.0 40.0 B+12.0


New York

2004 Result: 58.37% Kerry, 40.08% Bush.

2008 Result: 62.88% Obama, 36.03% McCain.

2012 Result: 63.35% Obama, 35.17% Romney,

2016 Result: 59.00% Clinton, 37.00% Trump.

29 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Biden: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Siena 19-Apr-20 23-Apr-20 803 3.7 65.0 29.0 B+36.0
Siena 22-Mar-20 26-Mar-20 566 4.5 58.0 33.0 B+25.0


North Carolina

2004 Result: 43.58% Kerry, 56.02% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.69% Obama, 49.36% McCain.

2012 Result: 48.35% Obama, 50.39% Romney,

2016 Result: 46.00% Clinton, 50.00% Trump.

15 Electoral votes.

7 polls

Biden: 91.8% wins (91,825 wins ), Trump: 8.2% wins (8,175 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Civiqs 02-May-20 04-May-20 1362 3.0 49.0 46.0 B+3.0
Meredith 27-Apr-20 28-Apr-20 604 4.0 47.4 40.4 B+7.0
SurveyUSA 23-Apr-20 26-Apr-20 580 5.5 50.0 45.0 B+5.0
PPP 20-Apr-20 21-Apr-20 1275 --- 49.0 46.0 B+3.0
Garin Hart Yang 13-Apr-20 18-Apr-20 800 --- 48.0 45.0 B+3.0
PPP 14-Apr-20 15-Apr-20 1318 --- 48.0 47.0 B+1.0
Harper 05-Apr-20 07-Apr-20 500 4.4 42.0 49.0 T+7.0


North Dakota

2004 Result: 35.50% Kerry, 62.86% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.62% Obama, 53.25% McCain.

2012 Result: 38.69% Obama, 58.32% Romney,

2016 Result: 27.00% Clinton, 63.00% Trump.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 0.7% wins (650 wins ), Trump: 99.3% wins (99,350 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
DFM Res 03-Mar-20 05-Mar-20 400 4.9 38.0 55.0 T+17.0


Ohio

2004 Result: 48.71% Kerry, 50.81% Bush.

2008 Result: 51.50% Obama, 46.91% McCain.

2012 Result: 50.67% Obama, 47.69% Romney,

2016 Result: 44.00% Clinton, 52.00% Trump.

18 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Biden: 65.1% wins (65,094 wins ), Trump: 34.9% wins (34,906 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
BWU 20-Apr-20 25-Apr-20 797 3.7 44.9 44.2 B+0.7
BWU 17-Mar-20 25-Mar-20 1025 3.3 42.8 47.2 T+4.4
Marist 10-Mar-20 13-Mar-20 1710 2.9 49.0 45.0 B+4.0


Oklahoma

2004 Result: 34.43% Kerry, 65.57% Bush.

2008 Result: 34.35% Obama, 65.64% McCain.

2012 Result: 33.23% Obama, 66.77% Romney,

2016 Result: 29.00% Clinton, 65.00% Trump.

7 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 0.0% wins (19 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (99,981 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Amber Integrated 05-Mar-20 08-Mar-20 500 4.4 33.0 57.0 T+24.0


Oregon

2004 Result: 51.35% Kerry, 47.19% Bush.

2008 Result: 56.75% Obama, 40.40% McCain.

2012 Result: 54.24% Obama, 42.15% Romney,

2016 Result: 50.00% Clinton, 39.00% Trump.

7 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Biden assumed to win all elections based on past 4 elections.



Pennsylvania

2004 Result: 50.92% Kerry, 48.42% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.64% Obama, 44.29% McCain.

2012 Result: 51.97% Obama, 46.59% Romney,

2016 Result: 47.00% Clinton, 48.00% Trump.

20 Electoral votes.

10 polls

Biden: 99.2% wins (99,230 wins ), Trump: 0.8% wins (770 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Harper 21-Apr-20 26-Apr-20 644 3.9 49.0 43.0 B+6.0
PPP 20-Apr-20 21-Apr-20 1251 --- 51.0 44.0 B+7.0
Fox News 18-Apr-20 21-Apr-20 803 3.5 50.0 42.0 B+8.0
IPSOS 15-Apr-20 20-Apr-20 654 4.8 46.0 40.0 B+6.0
Susquehanna 14-Apr-20 20-Apr-20 693 --- 48.0 42.0 B+6.0
RestorationPAC(R) 16-Apr-20 18-Apr-20 600 3.0 46.7 46.7 0.0
BWU 17-Mar-20 25-Mar-20 973 3.9 44.5 46.5 T+2.0
RestorationPAC(R) 19-Mar-20 21-Mar-20 600 --- 45.3 47.0 T+1.7
YouGov 06-Mar-20 08-Mar-20 725 5.1 46.0 40.0 B+6.0
Firehouse(R) 05-Mar-20 07-Mar-20 533 5.0 44.0 45.0 T+1.0


Rhode Island

2004 Result: 59.42% Kerry, 38.67% Bush.

2008 Result: 63.13% Obama, 35.21% McCain.

2012 Result: 62.70% Obama, 35.24% Romney,

2016 Result: 54.00% Clinton, 39.00% Trump.

4 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Biden assumed to win all elections based on past 4 elections.



South Carolina

2004 Result: 40.90% Kerry, 57.98% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.90% Obama, 53.87% McCain.

2012 Result: 44.09% Obama, 54.56% Romney,

2016 Result: 41.00% Clinton, 55.00% Trump.

9 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 7.9% wins (7,864 wins ), Trump: 92.1% wins (92,136 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
AtlasIntel 25-Feb-20 28-Feb-20 1100 4.0 41.8 47.6 T+5.8


South Dakota

2004 Result: 38.44% Kerry, 59.91% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.75% Obama, 53.16% McCain.

2012 Result: 39.87% Obama, 57.89% Romney,

2016 Result: 32.00% Clinton, 62.00% Trump.

3 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Trump assumed to win all elections based on past 4 elections.



Tennessee

2004 Result: 42.53% Kerry, 56.80% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.83% Obama, 56.90% McCain.

2012 Result: 39.08% Obama, 59.48% Romney,

2016 Result: 35.00% Clinton, 61.00% Trump.

11 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 0.2% wins (204 wins ), Trump: 99.8% wins (99,796 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Mason-Dixon 28-Jan-20 30-Jan-20 625 4.0 39.0 55.0 T+16.0


Texas

2004 Result: 38.22% Kerry, 61.09% Bush.

2008 Result: 43.68% Obama, 55.45% McCain.

2012 Result: 41.38% Obama, 57.17% Romney,

2016 Result: 43.00% Clinton, 52.00% Trump.

38 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Biden: 26.8% wins (26,756 wins ), Trump: 73.2% wins (73,244 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
PPP 27-Apr-20 28-Apr-20 1032 --- 47.0 46.0 B+1.0
UT Tyler 18-Apr-20 27-Apr-20 1169 3.0 43.0 43.0 0.0
U TX 10-Apr-20 19-Apr-20 1200 2.8 44.0 49.0 T+5.0


Utah

2004 Result: 26.00% Kerry, 71.54% Bush.

2008 Result: 34.41% Obama, 62.58% McCain.

2012 Result: 24.75% Obama, 72.79% Romney,

2016 Result: 27.00% Clinton, 46.00% Trump.

6 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Biden: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Rasmussen 15-Apr-20 21-Apr-20 964 --- 32.0 51.0 T+19.0
Y2Analytics 21-Mar-20 30-Mar-20 1331 2.8 41.0 46.0 T+5.0


Vermont

2004 Result: 58.94% Kerry, 38.80% Bush.

2008 Result: 67.44% Obama, 30.44% McCain.

2012 Result: 66.57% Obama, 30.97% Romney,

2016 Result: 57.00% Clinton, 30.00% Trump.

3 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Biden assumed to win all elections based on past 4 elections.



Virginia

2004 Result: 45.48% Kerry, 53.68% Bush.

2008 Result: 52.63% Obama, 46.33% McCain.

2012 Result: 51.16% Obama, 47.28% Romney,

2016 Result: 50.00% Clinton, 44.00% Trump.

13 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 97.9% wins (97,948 wins ), Trump: 2.1% wins (2,052 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
VCU 25-Mar-20 08-Apr-20 812 4.5 51.0 41.0 B+10.0


Washington

2004 Result: 52.82% Kerry, 45.64% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.65% Obama, 40.48% McCain.

2012 Result: 56.16% Obama, 41.29% Romney,

2016 Result: 53.00% Clinton, 37.00% Trump.

12 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 99.0% wins (98,978 wins ), Trump: 1.0% wins (1,022 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
EMC Res 31-Mar-20 06-Apr-20 583 4.1 52.0 39.0 B+13.0


West Virginia

2004 Result: 43.20% Kerry, 56.06% Bush.

2008 Result: 42.59% Obama, 55.71% McCain.

2012 Result: 35.54% Obama, 62.30% Romney,

2016 Result: 26.00% Clinton, 69.00% Trump.

5 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
WPA Intel 07-Jan-20 09-Jan-20 500 4.4 33.0 66.0 T+33.0


Wisconsin

2004 Result: 49.70% Kerry, 49.32% Bush.

2008 Result: 56.22% Obama, 42.31% McCain.

2012 Result: 52.83% Obama, 45.89% Romney,

2016 Result: 46.00% Clinton, 47.00% Trump.

10 Electoral votes.

10 polls

Biden: 93.6% wins (93,634 wins ), Trump: 6.4% wins (6,366 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
PPP 20-Apr-20 21-Apr-20 1415 --- 50.0 45.0 B+5.0
IPSOS 15-Apr-20 20-Apr-20 645 4.8 43.0 40.0 B+3.0
RestorationPAC(R) 16-Apr-20 18-Apr-20 600 3.0 49.7 45.3 B+4.4
Hart Res 06-Apr-20 08-Apr-20 301 --- 48.0 47.0 B+1.0
Marquette 24-Mar-20 29-Mar-20 813 --- 48.2 44.8 B+3.4
BWU 17-Mar-20 25-Mar-20 822 3.8 44.9 44.8 B+0.1
RestorationPAC(R) 17-Mar-20 19-Mar-20 600 --- 45.3 48.7 T+3.4
PPP 10-Mar-20 11-Mar-20 1727 --- 48.0 45.0 B+3.0
YouGov 06-Mar-20 08-Mar-20 459 6.4 44.0 42.0 B+2.0
Firehouse(R) 05-Mar-20 07-Mar-20 502 4.7 43.0 45.0 T+2.0


Wyoming

2004 Result: 29.07% Kerry, 68.86% Bush.

2008 Result: 32.54% Obama, 64.78% McCain.

2012 Result: 27.82% Obama, 68.64% Romney,

2016 Result: 22.00% Clinton, 67.00% Trump.

3 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Trump assumed to win all elections based on past 4 elections.