While Darryl works on a more thorough statistical analysis of Patty Murray’s 51-46% lead in today’s Rasmussen Poll, I’d like to take a moment to muse on the political impact of Dino Rossi’s recent round of bad news.
Rasmussen’s is now the third independent poll in as many days to show Murray at or above 50% with a modest but statistically significant lead (the fourth if you count the DSCC’s recently released internal poll), all of which come at the most inopportune time for the Republican nominee. For with teabagger Christine O’Donnell’s stunning victory in Tuesday’s primary flipping Delaware from the Likely Republican to the Likely Democratic column, a Republican takeover of the Senate is now well nigh impossible, making a major investment in what has always been a long shot Rossi campaign much less attractive than it was only a week ago.
The thinking was that a Rossi candidacy would put Washington into play in what many predicted to be a wave election year, allowing Republicans to at least claim a roadmap toward control of the Senate. Even Rossi has frequently promoted himself as the 51st seat, in an obvious effort to nationalize the race.
But with O’Donnell’s election taking Delaware off the map — and Republican control of the Senate with it — the NRSC and its allies must now recalculate the electoral math that determines where they will invest their money. Do they spread it around, even in Democratic-leaning Washington, and with polls trending in Murray’s favor? Or do they pull money out of Washington and concentrate it on more promising races like Wisconsin and Nevada, while playing defense in Kentucky?
If control of the Senate is at stake, it’s hard not to argue for the former. But if you can’t win control without Delaware, and you can’t win Delaware, then Washington suddenly becomes much less important. In fact, the Senate itself becomes much less important, potentially prompting conservative PACs to focus their largesse on winning control of the House.
And that poses a huge problem for Rossi, whose entire campaign strategy seems predicated on the expectation that huge gobs of “independent” expenditure cash will be dumped into his race during the final few weeks of the campaign. Indeed, forced to face off against Murray coffer to coffer, Rossi’s got no strategy.
Rossi benefited from some early IE’s (mostly funded by Rossi’s attorney), but we haven’t seen a single one on the airwaves since before Labor Day. Coincidence? Maybe, but the Republicans have their own internal polls too, and since they’re not releasing them, it is reasonable to suspect that they don’t much change this narrative. So perhaps Republican money is already drying up as polling trends show this race to be less and less winnable?
Election day is still six weeks away, but mail-in ballots drop in a little more than three, so there’s not much time left to decide where to spend all that money. And if Rossi doesn’t get some good news awfully soon, he might not see nearly as much of this money as he likely expected.
Something’s been nagging at me as I browse various blogs and such. I can’t help but ask if the Republicans peaked too soon?
Wouldn’t Rossi have already made his media campaign for the rest of the campaign? We’ve only got 7-1/2 weeks left, and for the last two weeks people will have already started putting their ballots in the mail. If he isn’t on the airwaves soon, he’s toast. I’m wondering how much media buy he can make at the last minute.
I remember one ad in 2008 which had me laughing. I forget who the candidate was, but it aired just before midnight on the day of the election. It consisted of three ads in a row for the same candidate. I commented at the time that either the media buyer didn’t know his stuff and make sure he had the deadlines clearly set forth in the contracts, or the campaign should demand a refund from the TV station.
Following Goldy’s logic, we might see a huge ton of money dumped into the Larson/Kostner race. And, of course, it works both ways – if Murray is feeling secure, she can free up some of her considerable war chest to support other Democratic candidates, as well.
rhp6033 @2,
We’re talking about “independent expenditures” here, with which by law, Rossi can’t coordinate. For example, something like $15 million in IE’s were spent on Rossi’s behalf in the 2008 gubernatorial race, but none of it was controlled by Rossi’s campaign.
With all the Fruit Loops that the Tea Baggers have managed to get on the ballot CO, AK, DE, AZ, and else where, I’m wondering of the RNC is focused more focused on it’s internal civil war than anything.
If it were me, I’d say screw the elections, focus on 86ing the Tea Baggers, and when we lost across the boards blame it on the baggers. It’s not like I’d be lying about why we lost.
Ahh, the chicken & the egg conundrum hits Helmet-Hair-Hamlet.
To get more money he needs more ads up to boost his poll results.
To get more ads up he needs more money.
If only he had not waited until the last minute to enter the campaign he might have built a constituency with skin in the game willing to pony up when the skies turned dark.
Now Helmet-Hair-Hamlet is left twisting in the (whirl)wind as the bright sunny days of his summer candidacy move inexorably in to the dark fall days of his final campaign…. loss.
# 5: Not only did Rossi’s procrastination hurt his fund-raising and general campaign organization, it gave Murray the ability to save her money for the final push. No need to pay for advertising until there was a “credible” opponant. I’m betting she’s already got most of her bills paid to the end of the campaign, a huge ad buy already reserved, and lots of money left over in the bank. Rossi’s gonna get hit with a ton of bricks.
Speaking of independent expenditures, I’d love to put an ad on the airwaves in California focused at the Republican Candidate for governor.
I’d title it: How much is your vote worth?
I’d point out that while CEO of HP, Whitman out-sourced tens of thousands of jobs overseas, did a lousy job at HP, and when forced out got a multi-million dollar parachute. She’s now using that money to try to buy your vote, spending more of her own money to buy this election than has ever before been spent anywhere in the U.S.
For tens of thousands of California workers who USED to work for HP, she is in effect using their own money to buy the election.
Doesn’t it make you mad? Do you feel that Whitman should be rewarded for running HP into the cellar, making tens of millions of dollars in the process, and then be promoted to the highest office in California, with a GDP larger than many countries? Can you imagine what she will do to California if she tries to run it the same way she ran HP?
The Hewlitt-Packard board of directors have already decided she didn’t have what it takes to run a major company. Are we now going to give her control of our state budget?
Out country, and our state, needs to turn away from such practices. Call Whitman herself and let her know how you feel (display Whitman’s personal cell phone number on the screen).
“while CEO of HP, Whitman”
Whitman was CEO of EBay. Fiorina was the failed HP CEO.
Yep, I knew I’d get that mixed up, should have checked it before posting.
I saw Clit Diddler signs in Edmonds and Shoreline several months before the Primary and before I even knew who he was (answer: he’s a nobody).
The ONLY Rossi signs I have seen is in a private yard. And I sure wish Rossi would put some up. I need a new liner for my catbox and my George Nethercutt signs are worn out.
@3: Yes, by law he can’t coordinate, but was sued by none other than Rob McKenna for doing just that during the last Gubernatorial campaign.
What ever came of that?
Too funny Brenda. I had to put up with a Rossi sign two houses down during his last(?) run for Govenor. I wanted to go pee on it really badly, but now whenever I see one, I just flip it off.
I was phone polled last night regarding Murray and Rossi. There was one question that really sealed the deal for me. The question was, which candidate do you believe will bring home more jobs to the state of Washington?
Anyone that would vote for Rossi can only be doing so because he has an ‘R’ next to his name. It sure wouldn’t be because it is in their best interests.
This is over. All Rossi can do now is try to position himself for a 4th losing run at statewide office.
Will the GOP learn from this experience? I certainly hope not.
Sigh, with all the communists in Seattle, vote fraud in King County, and the schools teaching moral relativism to our children Real American’s don’t stand a chance in Washington State.
Eat shit and die, prick.
@14 is another one of those goat fuckers.
Rossi’s ads also have no meat to them. Basically what he is promising is only to do what the GOP tells him. He says nothing about Washington state, but focuses on the country as a whole. While I believe that most Washingtonians also care what is happening in the country, they really want to know what the advantage would be for electing Rossi. So far his only offering “Hey, I’m not Patty.”
Meanwhile Murray’s ads are about the things she’s accomplished. They are solid reminders that what Murray has done isn’t pork but rather things that make huge differences to people all over the state.
How could Rossi be effective? How would he actually bring jobs to the state? Enriching the rich? Will that help you and me? No. We already know that.
Sigh.. With all the dumbass right wingers in this state not taking their meds as they should it’s a little hard getting some credible (i.e. sane) competition in the political arena.
@16, 18
Dang, I thought the name was a give away that I was pretending to be a righty.
Some Republican Dullard @ 19,
I got it. Great stuff!
@19 I suspected that, but with the quality of trolls this blog attracts, it was still possible you were being deadly serious.
As for campaign signs, for whatever reason, there are a fair sprinkling of them for Rossi down here in the Olympia area. I don’t think I’ve seen any for Murray, but, honestly, I also don’t think she needs any around here.
Up in Everett, I haven’t really seen that many Rossi or Murray signs. Lots of Larson & Kostler signs, though.
The streets look relatively clean with all thos Didler signs gone now.