Following up on yesterday’s post in which I explain for reporters why population-plus-inflation does not result in a stable revenue stream necessary to maintain government services at constant levels, I thought I’d quickly raise one more question in the minds of the press before they attempt to cover I-1033 in an objective and even-handed manner: what problem, exactly, is I-1033 intended to solve?
It can’t be because Washington is a high tax state. Even by the measurement of the conservative Tax Foundation, the organization whose stats Tim Eyman has long cherry-picked to support his tax cutting initiatives, Washington now ranks 35th in terms of state and local tax burden, and has climbed to 9th on the list of states with the best business tax climate.
And it certainly can’t be because government spending is out of control. Again, according to the Tax Foundation, Washington’s state and local tax burden (the percentage of one’s income one pays in state and local taxes, on average) has steadily dropped over the past 15 years from 10.4% in 1995 to 8.9% in 2008. And as I have pointed out on numerous occasions, per capita state tax revenues, adjusted for inflation, have also sunk to a 15-year low… and that’s before most of the impact of the Great Recession kicked in.
So what exactly is Timmy trying to fix? Certainly not out-of-control government spending. And certainly not potholes.
A hole in his wallet that opens every year or so.
Here’s our update from this morning that addresses why I-1033 is necessary
RE: Gregoire rings the dinner bell on tax increases – NO campaign’s new radio ad (it’s really unbelievable!)
Wednesday’s newspapers reported that Gregoire now supports raising taxes and she’s asking “lawmakers and interest groups” to tell her which ones to jack up.
Dingdingdingdingdingdingding — that’s the sound of Gregoire ringing the dinner bell on tax increases. Anything goes people, you want higher sales taxes, Gregoire’s your gal, a state income tax, Gregoire’s on your side, increased property taxes, Gregoire’s fine with that too, jacked up business taxes, utility taxes, gas taxes, death taxes, internet taxes, Gregoire’s simply hunky-dory with all of them.
In 2004, candidate Gregoire said “I’m not talking about taxes” – then she got into office in 2005, immediately got rid of I-601’s inflation/population growth limit and raised taxes. Then she and the Democrats went hog wild and radically increased the growth of government (33% in 4 years), overextending themselves with completely unsustainable budgets. What happened? Gregoire and the Democrats made the bad times a whole lot worse, ending with a $9 billion deficit.
Recognizing their lack of fiscal discipline, we introduced I-960 in 2007, knowing that it likely had a two-year shelf life. Gregoire’s comment about I-960 in January, 2007: “the extra handcuffs aren’t needed.” Voters approved I-960 because they didn’t believe her. With I-960’s policies firmly in place, Gregoire “suddenly” switched back and decided that tax hikes were a bad idea. She said raising taxes in the middle of a recession will only make the recession last longer. Was I-960’s two-year window the cause? Nah, said her supporters, she ‘gets it now.’
So now she’s switched again.
What could have happened?
Two weeks ago, KING 5 UPFRONT’s Allen Schauffler asked the SEIU’s David Rolfe, the head of the most powerful public employee union, about his desire to have Democrats raise taxes in 2010 and 2011: “Raise taxes? How do you think they’ll respond?” Without hesitation and without prompting, Rolfe replied that I-960’s two-year expiration date is ‘up’ at the end of this year and his group and others will be making sure Democrats know that’s what they want.
As a public service, KIRO’s Dori Monson provides us all with an audio clip about that (forward to 7:20):
http://www.mynorthwest.com/res.....30_2pm.mp3
Tuesday’s poll results among likely voters showed 61% yes, 31% no, 8% undecided. Obviously, voters opposed or undecided saw Gregoire as against taxes over the past two years and they likely believed that she’d stick with that position going forward — they likely believed that I-1033 wasn’t necessary because Gregoire ‘gets it now.’
Not any more.
Gregoire’s ‘anything-goes-on-tax-hikes’ re-position undercuts that big time. The NO on I-1033’s campaign theme is “we can trust the politicians.” That ain’t gonna fly anymore.
Our source in the No on I-1033 campaign managed to sneak us a copy of the script for a radio ad they’ll be releasing soon. The script indicates that it’ll be read by a man with a deep barotone voice. Here it is:
VOTE NO ON INITIATIVE 1033. Our state in heading toward a disaster of biblical proportions. What we mean is Old Testament, real wrath of God type stuff. Fire and brimstone coming down from the skies. Rivers and seas boiling. 40 years of darkess, earthquakes, volcanoes. The dead rising from the grave. Human sacrifice, dogs and cats, living together, MASS HYSTERIA. VOTE NO ON INITIATIVE 1033. Paid for by the NO on I-1033 campaign, top contributors Washington DC’s AFSCME, SEIU, and NEA. Any similarity to the movie Ghostbusters is merely coincidental.
It’s unbelievable! Because of the extraordinarily strong support I-1033 enjoys in the polls, these guys are so desperate they’re willing to say anything from now until election day. They’ve got millions of dirty dollars from Washington DC’s most powerful labor unions to spread their threats, lies, and scare tactics. We have faith in the common sense of the average taxpayer to see right through it.
http://www.VotersWantMoreChoices.com
Timmy @2,
You are a fucking liar, and it is only my dedication to democratic free speech that prevents me from deleting your comment.
I met with Gregoire in 2008, and she told me to my face that she opposed an income tax. To my face… a person she knew to be one of the loudest and most passionate income tax advocates in the state. And you know what I told her? That fucking liars like you would accuse her of supporting an income tax nonetheless.
What the fuck is that supposed to be, the bell on Timmmeh’s lie detector going off?
Take his comment down, Goldy.
It’s pure bullshit, bordering on criminal irresponsibility, and probably libelous.
It’s hard to find a single claim in that comment that has even visited the neighborhood of truth. Now he’s flat out making it up on the fly just like he did when he was caught stealing contributions and just like he always has when he’s in a corner. Nobody owes that dickhead a fucking thing. Least of all a podium from which he can tell more lies.
Who said “Now is not the time to talk about raising taxes”?
Timmy
There is dissembling and then there is flat-out lying. You flat out lie. You are perpetuating a fraudulent act upon the people of this state. You need to get the hell out of this state. You have done enough harm already. Go to Oklahoma. People of your ilk are honored there.
Goldy @3,
That’s it? Timmy writes 659 words regarding I-1033 and you jump on him about an income tax? Jesus Goldy, get a grip. There were lots of issues he wrote about that you could have jumped on him about, but income tax?
The fact of the matter is, government is growing at a faster rate then anything (other then our current fucked up health care system – which you and I agree on), and somebody needs to put on the brakes. For some reason our elected officials can’t seem to say no to increasing budgets, to hiring more employees, and generally blowing our money. OUR MONEY.
Using the CPI (your method) to calculate for inflation shows that over the past 20 years our State’s biannual budget has increased by 4 billion dollars more then inflation and population growth would dictate. You say that this is because public employees make up more of the budget, and unlike the manufacturing sector they cannot benefit from technological advances. Bullshit. Anybody who knows anything will tell you that the greatest efficiencies are to be found in the soft side of business, not the shop floor. Try reading about Lean-Plus before you spout off.
The problem is not about how many policemen or firemen we have, its about the added layers of bureaucracy that NEVER get cut when things go bad. A good example are school levies; if one of those fails they immediately cut the things that parents care about most; football and music are two good examples, but they never seem to cut administrative costs. And those administrators keep multiplying, and they cost a lot of money, much more then your school teachers that always get cut during hard times.
Here is a quick example: I grew up on Whidbey Island, where when I was there had about 600 students in the entire Coupeville school district. To manage this they had a Superintendent, a Sr./Jr. High Principal (who taught a couple of classes) and two ladies who worked in the office. That was it, total administration of 2 plus 2 clerks. Today they have a Superintendent, an assistant Superintendent, a business manager, a High School Principal, Jr. High Principal, 2 full time counselors and a support staff of 5. Total administration 7 plus staff of 5. All to manage 900 students.
Oh, and let’s not forget that they didn’t have computers when I attended.
You wonder why people are upset? You wonder why people will grasp at anything to curb this spending? Including Timmy’s dumb ideas and stunts? It’s better then what we are getting from Olympia. And for that matter better then what we are getting from Washington. Yea, I hate Eyman’s tax initiatives, I really wish we didn’t need them, but our Legislators simply aren’t listening, so we turn to the devil we know.
Duke @7,
I’ve written volumes on this topic… hundreds of thousands of words over the past few years… and I’m supposed to drop everything and once again dissect Tim’s usual sack of lies?
Gimme a break.
And no, I don’t use the CPI. I use the IPD for State and Government Services. Read my posts before responding. You might learn something.
Ding
Ding
Ding
Ding
Ding
@8
This is what you get, Goldy, when you agree to play host to Tim’s brand of pure bullshit. The acolytes who wash his stinking feet see it as an invitation.
Tim,
naturally, as you say, we can’t trust the politicians. If only we could count on them to be honest about things, like you.
But do you really think we can trust the voters? If the greedy, lying pols run these ads confusing the voters about the truth, the we have to be prepared to do what is necessary to ensure an outcome favorable to the well being of the fatherland.
Nobody reads all that shit Tim posts, one time through one boilerplate dump and you know what he is pasting into every “response” to any story, anywhere, that dare speak his name.
That is his job, kind of sad, pathetic, really.
Duke @ 7
Sounds like an improvement. The Bellevue schools I attended growing up didn’t have nearly enough admin staff. I can only hope they expanded like yours did.
Because the upset conservatives are addicted to outrage and believe every lie they hear?
Goldy,
Could you just delete Mr. Eyman’s press release dumps a spam. I have no problem with him actually engaging you or the commenters, but simply dumping his latest incoherent rambling press release in a random comment thread is rude.
Goldy–
How is what Gregoire told you about an Income Tax relevant to your post??
Eyman posts a series of comments answering your question WHY?
You may not like the answer but you asked, didn’t you??
And all you can pick out of Eyman’s long comment to disagree with is INCOME TAXES cuz Gregoire supposedly told you she wouldn’t do it.
You win TIM…again.
14. Chris Stefan spews:
This is typical of the Fringe Lunatic Left.
Ask Eyman a question WHY?
He gives you the answer….which is an answer.
Then you want to DELETE it??
What happened to tolerance??
What happened to common sense?
Tim Eyman has more common sense than the whole lot of you KLOWNS gorilla-glued together.
@2 You forgot to mention the fucking liar failed to mention that Gregoire only suggested possibly raising liquor and tobacco taxes.
@11 Eyman honest? You’re delusional! Eyman promised voters a $400 million property tax cut if they voted in slot machines. Do you know how much money Washingtonians would have to pump into slot machines every year to reach that number? On average, over $10,000 for a family of four. You’re the kind of gullible sucker Eyman panders to — and laughs at. The difference between you and him is that he knows he’s lying.
@16 What makes you think Eyman answers questions (or otherwise posts) on this blog? That stuff is robo-pasted boilerplate. There’s no difference between it and spam e-mail.
Cynical @15,
Tim Eyman is a liar. An admitted liar. Thus the onus is on him to prove his claims, not on me to refute them.
Goldy–
Huh??
Are you telling us you have never, ever lied in your life Goldy??
Sorry, I find that impossible to believe.
Sounds more like you CAN’T refute Tim’s claims.
Why do you have to be such a sore loser Goldy?
People are taxed to death.
Seattle, King County, Schools, State, Obama…all need more $$.
Don’t you see a trend here Goldy??
Listen & think—
THE ONLY WAY TO REIN IN GOVERNMENT AND MAKE GOVERNMENT ACCOUNTABLE AT THIS POINT IS….
TAKE AWAY THE MONEY!!
Tim and the majority of Americans understand this. Why can’t you???
Eyeman wants to destroy Washington state. He’ll be the first whiny white man complaining when Mukilteo fails to clean out the leaves in the drain on his street because they have no employees left. Maybe his house will flood.
What a maroon as Bugs Bunny would say.
Mr. Cynical @ 21:People are taxed to death.
Goldy has actual statistics, what is your basis for your opinion? I work, I own a home, have three vehicles, etc., I don’t think I’m being “taxed to death”, especially in light of all the services out there…
I really have to laugh at this “we can’t trust the politicians, because they don’t listen” line. So what makes anyone who believes this think that passage of 1033 will make them listen? How many Eyman creations have to pass before you think they will listen?
What this is all about is not “making government accountable”; it’s just paying fewer taxes, and not caring what may result of lowering taxes.
If you truly believe what Eyman says, then why aren’t you getting behind candidates (or running yourself) who will actually “be accountable”? You can pass all the tax cutting measures you want, but if you truly believe in your vision of smaller government, then those measures will not do any good until you elect candidates.
As much as I dislike Susan Hutchinson (who doesn’t support 1033), at least she’s putting herself in front of the voters, which is way more than Eyman will ever do.
I-1033 and Howard Hanson Dam
So my question is, what kind of monkey wrench will I-1033 throw into getting Howard Hanson Dam fixed?
I asked this question on the other I-1033 thread but nobody bothered to answer.
Another question: what will I-1033 do if another crisis happens and we can’t raise the money to handle it because of I-1033? Like maybe another Nisqually earthquake.
@16
Boy Cyni-the-klown you really are a fucking dumbass. Everything I’ve ever seen Mr. Eyman post here has been a copy of his latest press release. That isn’t responding to anything, it is spamming.
Um, what? How about breaking down the lies rather than getting all riled up in defensive anger whining “it’s not up to me to refute [his lies]”.
Sounds eerily reminiscent to the prosecutor explaining to the defendant: “I know you’re guilty. So explain to me why I should believe you are telling the truth and that you did not commit the crime you’re being charged with”.
If nothing else, this is very telling of today’s modern leftist. Angry and defensive.
@21 “People are taxed to death.”
No, only some people are being taxed to death … those on the low end of the income totem pole. Big business and the affluent are doing just fine.
@26 Already done that @18.
This is what our state highways would look like today if I-1033 had passed in 1915.
http://www.ppoo.org/MO_Callao_car-mud_350x260.jpg
The basic concept of I-1033 is that as Washington’s population grows we’ll build more one-room schoolhouses, but all six grades will still be taught by a single teacher in one room.
Not really. You just spouted some statistics and presented them as fact. These days, educators prefer that you show your work at how you arrived at your answer as opposed to just presenting your answer.
@31 Ah no. The statistics I used were:
Eyman’s claimed $400 million of tax cuts.
Washington’s population of approximately 6.2 million people.
An assumed 90% payout ratio on the slot machines.
A 25% state tax on house take.
Getting to $400 million of revenue requires 4 times the 10% house take, which would require $16 billion of bets on the machines. Divide that by 6.2 million people and you get $2,580 per person.
On the tax relief end of the calculations, dividing $400 million by roughly 2 million households gives you $200 per household.
For a household of four people, that’s more than $10,000. With a 90% payout ratio, they would lose $1,000 of the $10,000 they bet. In return for their $1,000 gambling loss, they would get a property tax reduction of $200. Which speaks for itself — no rational person would spend $1,000 to save $200 … although I’m certainly not asserting that everyone in our fair state is rational. (After all, look at some of the Republican kooks who get elected to various offices.)
Population figures are readily determined. Minimal research will show that slot machine payouts are typically in a range of about 85% to 95%, with Indians tending to the low side and Las Vegas to the higher side. The 25% tax rate, as I recall, was in the initiative.
The only speculative statistic here is Eyman’s projection of $400 million of tax revenues from slots, which is plainly preposterous. So much so that even Eyman must have known it was a fraud. Which makes him a liar.
The actual tax relief for homeowners would have been closer to $2 than $200, although as I recall Eyman promised much more tax relief than that — the $200 is my figure, a product of my calculations, working backwards from his figure of $400 million of tax revenues. Of course, not all voters are as stupid as Eyman would like to believe they are, and his initiative was decisively rejected at the polls.
Is Empty Suit Obama the dumbshit that used to post here as Rick D, more affectionately known as Little Ricky Dumbass? There is an arrogance in tone, combined with a lack of insight, that suggests that ESO is LRD. Actually, I have little doubt they are the same.
Funny that the HA faithful claim that a private, non elected citizen is “lying” yet don’t hold their own elected officials accountable when they lie- exhibit A- Governor Christine Gregoire. We don’t have a budget deficit before the election and then, Whooooah Nelly, we have a huge deficit “discovered” shortly after. Despite the warnings to the contrary, the sheeple of washington elected the dimwit for another 4 years of running this state into the ground.
Odd that Goldy has never had a post entitled “Why Christine, Why?” outlining the Governors lies, but then, he’s not exactly a purveyor of truth, but extreme partisanship and whines that he’s not recognized as a legitimate news blogger.
34
Can’t you people provide more competition than this sort of rot? I mean, hell, politics is a competitive game, but this doesn’t count as competition. Nonsense and lying doesn’t get you into the game, Little Ricky.
“Our state in heading toward a disaster of biblical proportions.”
Thanks to you, douchenozzle.
4. ROTCODDAM spews:
Eh. No. That’s Timmy’s nuts knocking together as he is jerking off.
23. 31st District Voter spews:
Good, PAY MORE A$$HOLE. No one is stopping you…except you. Local & State Government will gladly accept your generous donation.
Of course you won’t do it…cuz your fullacrap.
All Talk…no action.
Put Tax Increases on the Ballot…that’s what Eyman is all about dumba$$.
If the majority support it, so be it.
I can live with it…so can Tim.
You are a real moron.
37. Ekim spews:
Another Powerful, well thought out argument by Ekim. Can you be anymore childish and ignorant?? Oooops, I’m sorry, this is obviously the very best you can do.
Don’t want to hurt your self-esteem Ekim.
You are obviously very fragile.
@34 I don’t think Gregoire should raise taxes, but I do think she should redistribute the tax burden from the overtaxed poor to the skating rich.
@38 I partially agree with you — some people are taxed to death. See #40.
Hey Rog–
You’ve got money.
GIVE IT TO THE POOR!
Greedy old fart won’t give up his own $$
Wow, Mr. Cynical, wrong side of the bed this afternoon????
I pose the question again respectfully: What is the basis of your opinion of “taxed to death”? Why am I a moron for looking at objective measures like the Tax Foundation (or my own checkbook) to decide if I’m being overtaxed?
I do vote for tax increases/decreases – they’re called representatives. They represent me by making the decisions on what to tax and what to spend. If they don’t represent me, then I vote accordingly the next time they’re up for election. That’s how representative democracy works. Why elect anyone if I have to vote for every increase or decrease?
Finally, is Susan Hutchinson a moron for opposing 1033?
43. 31st District Voter spews:
OK, but you fail to acknowledge other checks and balances so as to not give “representatives” too much power or a blank check…they are called Initiatives and Referendums.
I would love to see more people who feel the Government needs more money whip out their own checkbook first….then come to the voters showing some of their own cash in the form of good-faith commitment. Voters would more likely approve a say $200 MILLION commitment for Parks if y’all pulled together the 1st $50 MILLION.
The problem is you would be lucky to get $5,000…much less $50 MILLION.
Therein shows a big problem in the direction America is heading..overdependence on Government.
Regarding overtaxed…we all have different thresholds depending upon where we live. Cost of living in Seattle is extraordinary. The problem is the City, County, Schools, State and Obama are crying for more money.
Overtaxed is also relative to the perceived value we are getting for our tax dollars.
Simply comparing us with other community’s in TAXES PAID doesn’t mean that much 31st.
It is what we pay relative to the perceived value that matters.
Yes.
Here’s my response to Tim Eyman’s latest rant @2
The Joke is Eyman’s Initiative 1033
Tim Eyman tries to make a joke of the concerns of people opposed to Initiative 1033. People opposed to I-1033 are concerned that Eyman’s budget freeze proposal will costs jobs in the state, cut health care and human services, reduce funding for educating our kids, increase costs to go to college, make it harder or impossible to keep parks and libraries open, reduce police and fire protection, decrease health coverage for seniors and children and much more.
People’s concerns are legitimate and Eyman’s response is to mock them. Eyman appeals to voters selfish side saying it’s more important to reduce property taxes for wealthy property owners than it is to provide any of these services or restore any public services lost due to the current recession. I think voters are smarter than Eyman wants to give them credit for.
I think Damon Agnos over at the Daily Weekly hits Eyman’s lame joke just right in his commentary entitled “Tim Eyman thinks he’s funny”:
I think Damon has it exactly right on what I consider to be the fatal flaw that will bring down Initiative 1033. Initiative 1033 is a wealth transfer scheme, taking sales taxes and other fees paid by everyone and only using them to pay property taxes for wealthy property owners when the economy improves and more revenue comes in above this year’s recession baseline used by Eyman in I-1033.
Last year sales taxes accounted for 57% of state revenue. We have the highest sales tax in the country. Eyman says the one and only priority of state and local government should be to use any revenue coming in above the baseline to help people who own property pay their property taxes.
This is a drastic shift of what we currently would use any added revenue for – namely paying for police and fire protection, educating our children, funding colleges and universities, repairing roads and bridges, keeping libraries and parks open, helping businesses create jobs, protecting the environment and people’s health, providing health care for seniors and children and much more.
The fatal flaw in Eyman’s wealth transfer scheme is that not everyone owns property. Some 35% of households in the state are not owner occupied.
Our tax system is one of the most regressive in the country already. Now Eyman wants to have sales taxes paid by renters and senior citizens and working families without property be used to pay taxes for people who have property.
Even for homeowners it’s a rip off. The amount of rebate given under I-1033 is not based on the amount of sales taxes and fees you pay but on the amount of property you own. The more property you own, the more you benefit from I-1033. So someone with a vacation home or a McMansion will see more of a return than someone with a smaller single family home.
Also Eyman isn’t going to tell the public that in addition some 40% of the rebate has to go to commercial property owners. Businesses already get a sales tax exemption for goods they resell. Consumers pay the sales taxes. But the businesses would still benefit under I-1033.
So large commercial property owners, corporations like Boeing, mall owners like Bellevue Square and real estate developers will see larger benefits from I-1033.
That’s some joke for renters who will still pay the same in sales taxes and other fees as before under I-1033. Renters will both not get a tax rebate or see any services lost due to the recession be restored. They will also not see any new public services for the taxes they paid. But they would help pay Boeing’s real estate taxes.
Initiative 1033 is bad for our state and bad for taxpayers. Vote No on I-1033.
cross posted on MajorityRulesBlog