Back in June of 2005, before most Washington voters knew his name, Strategic Vision showed Mike McGavick trailing Sen. Maria Cantwell 50% to 36% in their first head to head poll. By August 2005, McGavick had climbed to 38%. Fifteen months and untold millions later, McGavick has finally reached the magic 39% mark.
Hmm. These are Will Baker numbers — barely a few points higher than my dog would get merely by putting an “R” next to her name on the ballot. I mean, damn… even Richard Pope managed to get 44% of the vote this year. (Keep your spirits up Richard, maybe tenth time’s the charm.)
Not that this was much of a surprise, as McGavick never managed to gain any traction. Even when a couple polls briefly showed the margin closing this summer, it was solely due to Cantwell’s numbers coming down, while McGavick continued to bump his head on the low 40’s.
Why? Well yeah, there was that big blue wave thing — but McGavick was always a sucky candidate running a sucky campaign, and a quick scan through my previous posts suggests he never really had a chance, whatever the political climate.
Take a look. I come off as a pretty smart guy:
April 19, 2005, on reports that Mike McGavick, Rick White and Chris Vance were all scrambling to get Karl Rove’s endorsement:
I’m not really concerned which of the three
the votersRove ultimately chooses, as it’s hard to take seriously a field that includes Vance as a viable candidate. I’ll be the first to admit that Cantwell is no Patty Murray, and should be vulnerable… but if these crappy candidates are the bestthe state GOPKarl Rove can come up with, it’s gonna be a cakewalk.
I just don’t think defeating Cantwell will be as easy as the Republican faithful think it will. Apart from Rossi, all other GOP hopefuls trailed Cantwell by double digits in a recent Republican poll… and after a slow start, the Senator now reports a $3 million head start in her campaign account. And it doesn’t really matter who the GOP throws up against her, if she’s smart, Cantwell herself will all but ignore her opponent, choosing to run against Frist, DeLay, Rove, Bush and the right-wing Republican hegemony in DC.
It is true that Cantwell has not been the most visible of senators… mostly because she is simply a policy wonk, genuinely uncomfortable with shameless self-promotion. She is also a true moderate on most issues, and as such simply can’t generate exciting headlines like some of her more liberal (and, um… media savvy) colleagues. But her moderate politics and understated style work both ways, making her very difficult to attack. As tough as it is for Cantwell to generate real passion within some progressives, it will be equally tough for her opponent to generate passion against her, outside of the core Republican base.
Democrats will rally to Cantwell because they understand what is at stake nationally, and WA’s moderates and independents who gave both Patty Murray and John Kerry decisive victories last November, will need to be given a good reason to dump Cantwell in 2006.
I’m not sure a multimillionaire Safeco CEO can give them that reason.
It’s hard to imagine how the Republicans are going to present a multi-millionaire insurance company executive who proudly advocates shipping jobs overseas, as a “man of the people.” But you know they’re going to try.
I hear some righties snidely claim that they’re going to force Cantwell to run on her record. Well I hate to burst their bubble, but McGavick has a record too, and it ain’t gonna look so pretty by the time November, 2006 comes around.
I continue to wonder if McGavick, a man with a long record as an insurance industry lobbyist and executive is really the right person to run in WA state against Cantwell, a successful executive herself? Do Rove and Dole and the NRSC strategists really understand Washington state? As one Republican consultant suggests, maybe not.
“What people think in the Beltway and what goes on back home are two different things, and there’s a disconnect there.”
Hmm… the same kind of disconnect that labeled the politically diminutive George Nethercutt a “giant killer”…?
The GOP had counted on an unpopular Cantwell being an easy target, but now it seems clear that McGavick is not only going to have to sell himself to WA voters, he’s going to have to make a strong case for tossing out Cantwell as well. And with Bush’s approval ratings in the toilet, and the GOP leadership not far behind, it’s gonna be pretty tough making the argument that we need to give the president one more Republican vote in the Senate.
Perhaps this partially explains why his fellow Republicans aren’t lining up to challenge McGavick for the nomination?
December 15, 2005, on Sen. Cantwell’s rising approval numbers:
There was a time when state R’s expected the national party to pour lavish sums into this race, but it’s beginning to look like that money would be better spent defending Representatives Dave Reichert and Cathy McMorris.
The problem for McGavick is that contrary to popular belief, Christian conservative voter turnout can be pretty soft, especially when the Republican candidate gives them little to get excited about. And as much as McGavick needs to draw votes from Dems and independents, he also needs a strong showing from the GOP base.
March 2, 2006, on McGavick’s announcement that “civility” would be a central theme of his campaign:
Today’s event
Yup, you pretty much nailed it all the way through.
The one thing I noticed was that the GOP scrupulously avoided talking about was his lack of any public service, even though they tried to make that the central issue with Burner.
Maybe they thought his years as a lobbyist counted as public service.
I think Mike McGavick would be extremely vulnerable to negative advertising by Cantwell and the Democrats. Take a look at the extremely small percentage of premiums charged to homeowners that Safeco Ins Co of America pays out in insured losses:
http://www.insurance.wa.gov/pu.....eportAppen dix/03_Top40_P_HomeMultPeril.pdf
Out of every dollar homeowners pay in premiums to Safeco, only 39.02 cents are returned in the form of payments for insured losses. This is far below the statewide average of 48.18 cents, and one of the lowest payment rates of major insurance companies in this state.
Either Safeco charges its homeowners a lot more in premiums than the average company, or pays out much less in losses on claims filed by homeowners – or both. Certainly, with such a low payout rate, Safeco is an extremely profitable company and its boss is undoubtedly a well-compensated man.
Personally, I have my homeowner’s insurance with PEMCO, which at a payout rate of 63.97 cents per dollar of premiums is by far the best homeowner’s company out of the top 10 doing business in Washington. Maybe PEMCO executives give more money to Democrats, and Safeco executives give more money to Republicans, but I have to based my insurance decisions on personal economics.
In any event, by the time the Democrats get through with their negative advertising against McGavick, both Mike and Safeco will be far worse off in the public perception. McGavick will be seen as someone who got rich by gouging homeowners, and many homeowners will be considering changing their policies to other companies.
Comment by Richard Pope — 7/16/05 @ 3:40 pm
That could be another negative psychological factor. Safeco Field. A lot of people have resentment over the public funding of that private stadium, and the massive giveaway to the Mariners. It cost Slade Gorton a lot of support, and probably resulted in a large percentage of the Libertarian vote in 2000 – I believe that candidate got about 60,000 votes when Gorton lost by only about 2,000 votes.
Since the Mariners are in the toilet this year, and have a good chance of being in the toilet next year, this won’t be so helpful for the Safeco name.
And there should be a Libertarian on the ballot next fall as well. The GOP has pushed so hard to eliminate the top two system. Now there is the reward of spolier candidates on the general election ballot, and election by mere plurality (instead of a majority) – which will ensure that the GOP always loses close races in this state.
Comment by Richard Pope — 7/17/05 @ 6:27 am
I am not trying to advocate against McGavick, but just pointing out potential vulnerability. Or lack of vulnerability, as the case may be.
Goldy’s initial criticisms may not have much net gain, if any, for Cantwell. If McGavick outsourced a lot of Safeco jobs, it wouldn’t hurt him too much, since lots of companies are doing this – especially Democrat-leaning Microsoft and AOL (call customer service for either company, and you will most likely get someone in India).
As for Safeco closing its Redmond campus, this was actually news to me, I must admit. But Safeco appears to be moving all of its Redmond employees to its Seattle HQ in the U-District, and will complete this move around 2008 or so. It doesn’t seem to be connected with employee layoffs.
The highest potential vulnerability of any insurance company is how they treat homeowners whose house has burned to the ground, or whose possessions have been burglarized. Most homeowner’s insurance companies actually pay less than 50 cents out of every premium dollar in claims, since a lot of money is consumed in overhead, as well as fighting potentially fraudulent claims (or screwing homeowners with legitimate claims).
Naturally, when Safeco only returns 39.02 cents of every homeowner premium in claim payments, that at least attracts attention, even when compared with the surprising low statewide average of 48.18 cents. Either Safeco is charging quite a bit too much for its insurance in the first place (since they don’t pay out all that much in losses), or some homeowners are getting screwed on legitimate claims, or both – or at least it sets off alarm bells in that direction.
Are there are homeowners that have successfully sued Safeco after being denied on legitimate claims? I know that Allstate, for example, gets sued quite frequently for these reasons, and has a bad reputation among people who are aware of this.
As Goldy said @ 30, it might not be too difficult for the Dems to dig up a few of these homeowners (if they exist) and tell their stories, combine this with the very low claim payouts, and high salary of McGavick – and cause some real damage to his standing. If these people exist, the Dems will have no difficulty locating them, since the trial lawyers who sued insurance companies for denial of coverage tend to be very strong backers of the Dems. (And out-of-state homeowners who have sued Safeco will be almost as effective as Washington homeowners, and just as easily for the Dems to identify.)
If legitimate, this type of negative advertising will be more effective than almost anything else. Negative issue advertising, by contrast, has limited effectiveness, since there are at least two sides to every sides. But if homeowners are really getting screwed, this would have a broad-based and non-ideological appeal. After all, a home is a family’s most important investment and their most important place to be.
Comment by Richard Pope — 7/19/05 @ 11:23 am
I think Richard Pope should run for Senate.
Comment by dj — 7/21/05 @ 1:58 pm
I second DJ’s nomination… Richard Pope should challenge McGavick for the nomination. I’d vote for you Richard. In the primary.
Comment by Goldy — 7/21/05 @ 2:12 pm
DJ @ 11
Interesting thought. I always wondered what my percentage would have been in a Cantwell-Pope matchup public opinion poll. (Remember the one the state GOP paid for, which showed Rossi beating Cantwell, Vance doing poorest and losing in a landslide, and McGavick doing a little better than Vance?) People knew Vance’s name well and lots of folks really hated him, and didn’t really know McGavick’s name at all. Probably people know my name a little bit, there aren’t many who really hate me, but not a lot who really like me either.
In any event, last couple of times I have run in King County (2001 and 2003), I got 37% of the vote, which is a big defeat, but still three or four points higher than what Bush and Nethercutt got last fall. And I did all of this without really campaigning, certainly without spending any money (well there is this thing called a “filing fee”), and with Kirby Wilbur telling his loyal followers to vote for my opponents.
I attribute this mainly to not being hated as much. I tend to get ten points or so better than normal in the heavily Democratic precincts in Seattle, and several points less than normal in the Republican leaning precincts on the Eastside. Since there are a lot more Democrat leaning precincts than Republican leaning precincts, a less polarizing candidate can do a few points better than a Bush or a Nethercutt, even if the party leadership really doesn’t like the candidate very much and the candidate doesn’t really do very much.
Realistically, I wouldn’t stand a prayer in a primary against someone like McGavick. It’s one thing to be in a general election without much party support. But winning a contested primary against the party establishment would be nearly impossible. But thanks for the thoughts.
Comment by Richard Pope — 7/21/05 @ 4:19 pm
Come on Richard… for the good of the party. Diane says competition is good for the candidates.
And you already have my endorsement.
Comment by Goldy — 7/21/05 @ 5:03 pm
Goldy @ 29
And it looks like Diane is going to provide that competition. And Diane can raise money – she raised $484,452 for the 8th district Congress race – $45,581 of it from her own pocket. Receiving 16,468 votes – almost $30 a vote (just for a primary!).
That’s just too pricey for me. I have never spent even a dime per vote, and once got by with spending less than half a cent per vote (both primary and general).
Anyway, Diane doesn’t live that far from me. Granted, the property values on the shores of Lake Sammamish are much higher than my modest rambler in Robinswood, but nowhere near what a palatial estate for an eight-figure executive costs in The Highlands. Every now and then, I see Diane and/or her husband jogging down my street. If that other fellow goes out jogging or walking, he can do so in the privacy of a guarded, gated and exclusive community.
Comment by Richard Pope — 7/21/05 @ 5:34 pm
(Correction for 2006 — I will probably end up having spent around 40 cents per vote in the Northeast District Court race.)
McGavick never had a chance because he’s McGavick. A slimeball lobbyist, a CEO who pulled down a $28 million final paycheck after laying off hundreds of long-time employees, a guy totally out of touch with ordinary citizens and acting like he couldn’t care less about their problems, and a liar who ran a sleazy low-ball campaign. Why would anyone except a clinically optimistic Republican think this guy could break 40% let alone win?
How many Washingtonians want to be represented in the Senate by a rich CEO who lives behind the locked gates of The Highlands?
A guy who doesn’t do his own grocery shopping and has no idea what’s happening to grocery prices?
A guy who doesn’t pump his own gas and has no idea what a fillup costs?
A guy who doesn’t have to worry about the cost of medical care and has no idea what it feels like to lose your life savings to medical bill collectors?
The Mike!? McGavicks of the world are the problem, not the solution.
And then there’s the incident involving criminal electioneering by the McGavick campaign. They lined the walk into a north King County polling site with McGavick yard signs. That’s a gross misdemeanor punishable by a year in jail and $5,000 fine.
Pale Rider here is a really good news group for discussions on Socialism on usenet.
alt.politics.socialism.trotsky
I was told about it by an informant and if Stefan wants to verify it all he has to do is ask King County Elections for copies of the incident reports from polling places. But I’ll bet you’ll never see any mention of it on his partisan blog. If Cantwell had done it, it would be plastered all over his blog.
Stefan is nothing but a partisan hack.
Wonder how the shareholder derivative lawsuit against Mike McGavick, Safeco Corporation, Gary Locke, and the rest of the Safeco Board of Directors is doing? Will they make McGavick pay back the $28 million?
http://www.mcgavicklawsuit.com/
If you go to Stefan’s blog you’ll read stuff like this:
“Congratulations Speaker Pelosi, now let the bombs fall where they may. My prediction: terror attack on domestic soil passenger aircraft within the next six months. Casualties in the 2-300 range. And, unfortunately, maybe that’s just what we need. It’s obvious people don’t remember what happened 5 years ago.
Posted by FullContactPolitics at November 8, 2006 10:52 AM”
http://tinyurl.com/ydlfwu
Now what kind of blogger would allow his blog to be used to post stuff saying terrorist should attack our country and kill innocent Americans to help elect a GOP congress next time around? I would hope even Stefan would repudiate something like that, but I haven’t heard a word from him.
Whatever you have to say on this subject, Stefan, post it here. I don’t read your sucky little blog so I won’t see anything you post there. And I know you read (and post on) HA.
21
Richard, you can be proud that you outpolled that sticky-fingered, lying, two-bit hack lobbyist McGavick. Whatever your faults, at least you didn’t lie about Social Security.
Richard — what do you think of the wingnut who hopes terrorists attack a passenger jet and kill 200 to 300 Americans because he thinks it’ll get people to elect a GOP Congress again? I think it’s sick, pathetic, beyond the pale, and I think Stefan should erase it and ban that poster from his web site.
It is sad to here to what extent some republicans are willing to go to help the canidats stay in power. And for what really
They do nuthing really to help them at all. They most likely are working on things that will end up hurting all of us.
It is just so sad someone would even say that.
“Democrats Unlikely to Approve Bolton for U.N.
“By ANNE PLUMMER FLAHERTY, AP
“WASHINGTON (Nov. 10) – John Bolton’s prospects for staying on as U.N. ambassador … died Thursday as Democrats and a pivotal Republican said they would continue to oppose his nomination.
“On Thursday, the White House resubmitted Bolton’s nomination to the Senate, where the appointment has languished for more than a year. Bush appointed him to the job temporarily in August 2005 while Congress was in recess, an appointment that will expire when the Congress adjourns, no later than January.
“Sen. Lincoln Chafee, R-R.I. … told reporters … he would continue opposing Bolton. That would likely deny Republicans the votes needed to move Bolton’s nomination from the Senate Foreign Relations Committee to the full Senate. … Republicans lack the 60 votes needed to force a vote on the nomination.”
http://tinyurl.com/yde5uh
Roger Rabbit @ 25
I certainly hope we don’t suffer a terrorist attack of any sort, and certainly not the kind of attack that nut wishes for in his posting on SoundPolitics. Since Stefan does censor his website for objectionable material, that posting should be a strong candidate for deletion.
MEHLMAN LEAVING RNC
“Mehlman to Step Down From RNC Post
“By LIZ SIDOTI
“AP
“WASHINGTON (Nov. 10) – Republican National Committee Chairman Ken Mehlman, whose party lost both chambers of Congress in the midterm elections, will step down from his post when his two-year term ends in January, GOP officials said Thursday.”
http://tinyurl.com/y5bulc
29
I agree, Richard. In a previous thread I offered the wingnuts an olive branch, but ProudAss (aka “Truth2006”) wants no part of it. There’s nothing I’d like more than to see the GOP abandon its concept of politics as “war” and return to the competitive politics of the pre-Bush days when mudslinging was just good clean fun!
Roger Rabbit @ 30
So Ken Mehlman is out?
Ken Mehlman is reportedly going to go work for Rudy Giuliani, presumably for ’08 purposes.
Heard what is reported to be a true story recently about a little girl who’d had one of the death and returning to life experiences (more commonly called near-death experience). When she came back, she told of going to Heaven. She said to her parents “You never told me I had a brother.” She said she had met him in Heaven. Turns out that her parents had had an abortion somewhere along the way and never told her about it. But what she couldn’t possibly have known except for that experience was confirmed by what her parents knew.
When a baby is aborted, he/she doesn’t vanish into thin air, never to be heard from again. This is apparently what happens to them after they are killed. They are, indeed, human beings or this little girl wouldn’t have met her brother. That’s some pretty privileged knowledge that you can’t ignore once you hear it.
Hey Goldy, care to weigh-in on why Darcy Burner sucks??? Phony.
The rats are abandoning ship…
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15651273/
Chafee wants to be a Dem (who in their right mind doesn’t?)
And the anti-gay, gay RNC Chairman has quit! Bye Mehlman. Maybe you and Haggard can get together at the next Man Boy Love Assoc. Meeting!
Richard Pope: …a little fine tuning on your brain and you’ll be one of ours!!! YAAAAAHAAHHAHA!
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15643614/
No wonder we haven’t heard much from Puddybutt lately. He blew up his own asshole!
The Kos kids and the nutroots should be jumping with joy over the following.
Sen. Reid Backs Lieberman for Homeland Security Chairmanship
Newly re-elected Sen. Joe Lieberman has been promised by Sen. Harry Reid – who is in line to become the next Senate Majority Leader – that he will support Lieberman’s efforts to become chairman of the powerful Homeland Security Committee.
In a private phone call on Wednesday, Nevada’s Reid told Lieberman that he would recognize Lieberman as the senior Democrat on the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, which would facilitate Lieberman’s move into the post.
Lieberman was the ranking Democrat on the committee, but he lost the Democratic primary in Connecticut and ran successfully as an independent. That leaves Carl Levin of Michigan as the senior committee member elected as a Democrat.
How do you spell suckers?
R-A-D-I-C-A-L-L-E-F-T.
Iraqi president says Democrats told him they will not pull out quickly
By Associated Press
Thursday, November 9, 2006 – Updated: 05:23 PM EST
BAGHDAD, Iraq – President Jalal Talabani said Thursday that he had been assured by Democrat congressional leaders during a recent visit to Washington that they had no plans for a quick withdrawal of U.S. forces.
Talabani, a Kurd whose post is ceremonial, said Democrats also backed the idea of placing U.S. troops in bases while putting Iraqis in charge of security in and around cities.
“They all told me that they want the success of Iraq’s democratically elected government and continued support for the Iraqi people to defeat terrorism,” Talabani said about his trip to the United States in late September as many were predicting the Democratic congressional triumph in Tuesday’s midterm elections.
“One of them (a Democrat leader) told me that any early withdrawal will be a catastrophe for the United States and the world,” Talabani, speaking from his northern hometown of Sulaimaniyah, told the Dubai-based Al-Jazeera satellite broadcaster.
http://news.bostonherald.com/i.....eid=166518
jaybo = loser
HA’s comments have really gone to seed. Goldy seems to have lost a lot of (non-spam) participation. I wonder what happened?
Goldy, what is up with all the spam crap?
Does anyone know what is taking so long with counting ballots?
34
Heard what is reported to be a true story recently about a little girl who’d had one of the death and returning to life experiences (more commonly called near-death experience). When she came back, she told of going to Heaven. She said to her parents “You never told me I had a brother.” She said she had met him in Heaven. Turns out that her parents had had an abortion somewhere along the way and never told her about it. But what she couldn’t possibly have known except for that experience was confirmed by what her parents knew.
When a baby is aborted, he/she doesn’t vanish into thin air, never to be heard from again. This is apparently what happens to them after they are killed. They are, indeed, human beings or this little girl wouldn’t have met her brother. That’s some pretty privileged knowledge that you can’t ignore once you hear it. Commentby Truth— 11/10/06@ 2:24 am
Source please?
34 (continued)
Is this another one of the “true stories” that wingnuts circulate on the internet via e-mail? 99.99% of it is b.s.
75
HA’s comments have really gone to seed. Goldy seems to have lost a lot of (non-spam) participation. I wonder what happened? Commentby Lapsed Subscriber— 11/10/06@ 8:22 am
Dunno … maybe some of the trolls committed suicide Tuesday night?
Goldy gets porn spam; Stefan gets jihadists:
“Congratulations Speaker Pelosi, now let the bombs fall where they may. My prediction: terror attack on domestic soil passenger aircraft within the next six months. Casualties in the 2-300 range. And, unfortunately, maybe that’s just what we need. It’s obvious people don’t remember what happened 5 years ago.
Posted by FullContactPolitics at November 8, 2006 10:52 AM”
http://tinyurl.com/ydlfwu
I wonder why Stefan’s blog is so popular with the pro-terrorist faction?
Roger, the simple rebuttal for UnTruth2006 is “The plural of anecdote is not data”.
I have to admit I’d rather see spam or Xtian wingnutese than JCH’s vile and racist bile vomited up on the commments.
According to KOMO 4 News, Reichert now leads by 3,120 with over 70,000 ballots remaining to be counted in King County, which will post its next tally at 6 p.m. today. Pierce County won’t report again until Monday. Meanwhile, Burner has started raising funds for recount expenses as a “precaution.”
I have to admit I’d rather see spam or Xtian wingnutese than JCH’s vile and racist bile vomited up on the commments. Commentby eponymous coward— 11/10/06@ 8:49 am
I haven’t seen much of JCH the last few days. I wonder if he’s back in Pennsylvania stalking Joe Paterno?
I also don’t see the usual crowd of wingnut smokeblowers alleging the Democrats stole dozens of congressional seats across the country! They’re probably still trying to figure out a way to spin that whopper.
28 Truth
“Heard what is reported to be a true story”
It’s not.
39 jaybo (number will change)
They have to pay Lieberman off to keep him from defecting. Due to his high moral standards, don’t you know.
They have to pay Lieberman off to keep him from defecting. Due to his high moral standards, don’t you know.
Maybe not. If he decides to switch, it’s totally for short-term gains. Long-term it’s stupid. The Dems are in fantastic position for taking a lot of seats in the Senate in ’08. If he switches, he’ll go back to the minority in 2 years, and he’ll have managed to piss off the only constituency he has left.
This is not to say that he won’t try to leverage his position, or that D.C. Dems won’t try to keep him happy. But bolting would be the worst move he could make.
TEHRAN (Reuters) – Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Friday called U.S. President George W. Bush’s defeat in congressional elections a victory for Iran.
http://today.reuters.com/news/.....038;rpc=22
THe only source I cound find for the “near Detah experince report of aborted little brother” is from a Dr. P.M.H. Atwater, who lists herself as an L.H.D. and an honorary Ph.D. In her story, it is a little boy who has the NDE. She writes a column for the The International Association for Near-Death Studies (IANDS). She is neither a medical doctor nor a scientist in any accepted definition of the word.
WIkipedia: A Doctor of Humane Letters (Latin: Litterarum humanae doctor; D.H.L.; or L.H.D.) is an honorary degree often conferred to those who have contributed to issues of peace and social justice.
This is not anyone whose word we should as similar to a scientific conclusion.
53 TJ
Right, but if his choice is being a back-bencher now and going forward with the Dems or a chairman for two years and then MAYBE a back-bencher with the GOP, he might see that as attractive. Thus, Dems pay him off now.
Right, but if his choice is being a back-bencher now and going forward with the Dems or a chairman for two years and then MAYBE a back-bencher with the GOP, he might see that as attractive. Thus, Dems pay him off now.
Oh, I get it. I’m just saying, they don’t have to. They could call his bluff, but they won’t. On top of everything, he’s still friends with a lot of them. He’s part of the club, and, while the grassroots are making inroads, the Democratic Party in DC is still an insular, short-sighted club.
Lieberman could never be a Republican. If he switched parties, he’d be a pariah in his new party, and a Benedict Arnold to his own one. His ability to effectively represent his state in the U.S. Senate would be fatally compromised. He will remain a Democrat.
Over on the pro-jihad blog* they’re saying McGavick lost because he ran a lousy campaign. I say he lost because the GOP is a lousy party with a lousy message that ran a lousy candidate! C’mon wingnuts — 39% is REPUDIATION. What part of that don’t you understand?
* The blog in question contains comment that “we need” a terrorist attack to get people to vote Republican again.
Reichert may have been a decent cop, but he’s a non-entity in Congress. He is in a lot more trouble than Cantwell is.
Comment by wayne — 4/6/06 @ 2:13 am
#38. I heard it on a christian radio program here in Seattle (I think on AM820) a few weeks ago. The guy had another story where another little girl had died and saw herself rising up and she told the nursing staff (when she came back to life) that there was a strange-colored tennis shoe on the roof of the building. Nobody ever went up there, because the door to the roof was usually locked, but a nurse apparently decided to check it out and went up there and found the darn tennis shoe! That story doesn’t have abortion implications like the other one, but just shows that this stuff really does happen.
The website abort73.com explains in very great detail and with photos even (click on left 1A #s 3 & 4) real photos of aborted babies at 7 & 8 weeks just how human these babies are, with arms and fingers and knee joints and feet, heads and eyes. I think most of us thought of them as unformed blobs in the first two months. But it turns out that it’s much more than that. Also, one of the procedures (called Dilation and extraction) done in early 2nd trimester, they go in with forceps and grab say, an arm, twist it until it tears off. Then pull the piece out. They go in and do that to all the limbs. Then they smash the head and remove. It’s beyond gruesome. I realized after looking at that site how very human these babies are. I think most of us didn’t really understand how human, instead of what we are told that it’s just a blob of formless tissue. Turns out much beyond 4 weeks, we’ve got a pretty unmistakely human form going on there with the torso, legs and arms and digits and eyes, etc.
When I couple that with the story from the radio show, it really gives one pause to think hard.
And interestingly, after all the dismembering, they have to go and piece the baby all back together on the table afterward, which is how they know whether they’ve gotten all the babies torn limbs/pieces out. You can see photos of what that looks like. Takes your breath away.
He wouldn’t throw an inside fastball; he wouldn’t throw an elbow in the corners.
57 Truth
Crap, I lost my post.
Long story short, you’re wrong on the facts, which, given your record, isn’t surprising. D&X is a third trimester procedure. You’re referring to D&E (dilation and evacuation), which is THE most common second trimester abortion procedure (but of course second trimester abortion are only 11% of all abortions, with third trimester clocking in a 1.4%). Your wonderfully gruesome scenario does not apply to better than 87% of all abortions.
“When I couple that with the story from the radio show, it really gives one pause to think hard.”
You’ve never thought hard in your I’m-guessing-short life.
But here’s something to “think hard” about. Abortions are a big deal. There are many good reasons to abort embryos or fetuses, including teh health of the mother, as defined privately by her and her physician. There are even better reasons to do it as safely and humanely as possible when it is necessary. And, it’s not your business unless it’s your body.
And the radio-show claim is just pure bunk, reported by a lay person trying to sell books in the spritualist racket.
Think hard.
57
That’s your source? A radio show? Try footnoting that in a college writing assignment and see what happens to your grade.
He went in the arena, however.
My freshman English professor warned the class she would automatically give an “F” to anybody who turned in an assignment using Reader’s Digest as a source.
You are right about the reversing of the terms. But this stuff is for real. They do pull and twist and tear limbs off in the evacuation procedure. It IS gruesome, and the problem is that the clinics do not describe it in detail to the women having them. If you go to certain clinic websites, they simply say (e.g. with the actual extraction or partial birth procedure) “the woman is put under general anesthesia and the abortion performed”. The women aren’t shown photos of how normal-looking the 2nd and 3rd term babies look (frankly later 1/2 1st trimester babies). they don’t get told about the limb-tearing, or the fact that an 11-week old baby looks like a small person! When women learn this they tend to say “why didn’t anyone tell me the baby looked like that?”
You can claim the story about the little girl is bunk, but how do you know that it is? You don’t really say how you know that it is bunk. You gave an opinion. I simply heard this man speak. He said of the many death-back-to-life stories he had, this was indeed among the most credible ones he’d collected because of the parental confirmation of it. You are calling it bunk apparently only because it does not fit in with your desire to see the issue a certain way. But when confronted with it, then you have to go back and re-ask yourself “Are my assumptions/desires to believe a certain way true?” Everyone has to do that. But simply saying it’s bunk proves nothing, just as replying “bunk” to someone telling you a fact you hadn’t known. Look into it further for yourself rather than blanket-statement making because you want things to be a certain way, rather than what it might just be.
You replied in an insulting manner to me. I will not do that to you. But I will point out that if limb–twisting-and-tearing-dismembering happens in “just 11% of american pregnancies”, that means that 143,000 times year this is going on in America. If “only” 1.4% of babies are aborted via extraction, that means that 18,200 times a year this is happening here in America.
And the 1.1 million each year of the rest of them are involving tearing apart little human bodies (people aren’t told that’s what’s going on. They are led to believe it’s just clumps of amorphous cells.)via suction and scrape-outs are destroying small human-looking beings with arms, legs, heads, eyes and fingers. Women don’t get told that. But when you see the pieced-together bodies (as they have to do after they kill the baby), it is unmistakable what you are looking at. The photos don’t lie. Most women aren’t aware of what this baby looks like.
And when you read about the horrible pyschological effects far too many women are suffering once they realized what they’ve done, how do you go back and undo it all? You can’t. They were sold the lie that this is simple, final and inconsequential. No, stories like this little girl’s suggest that these babies do not go away permanently. It has further implications.
So yes, it is worth thinking through some more. You can say aborted children simply vanish into thin air, never to be heard from again. But what is THAT based on? Opinion?
David, why are newspapers exempt from the sales tax?
The newspaper industry is in secular decline. Their editorial boards write foolish opinions. Let’s hit their customers with a sales tax. Let’s add insult to injury.
Rabbit said,
“Lieberman could never be a Republican. If he switched parties, he’d be a pariah in his new party, and a Benedict Arnold to his own one. His ability to effectively represent his state in the U.S. Senate would be fatally compromised. He will remain a Democrat.”
The above is so funny that I can hardly contain myself. I know Rabbit has short-term memory loss from all the drugs he consumes but I think that Benedict Arnold would be a vast improvement over the names that Sen Lieberman was called by the sames nut-jobs that Rabbit represents just a couple months ago.
LOL.
Rather, let’s add injury to insult.