Man. Seattle sports teams. The Mariners breaking the playoff drought. And OL Reign coming in first in the NWSL.
We may ir may not get a Mariners home game in the playoffs. But OL Reign are playing at Lumen Field. And if you haven’t been to one of there games, let me recommend a trip. The crowd is a lot of fun during the regular season, and I imagine it will be even more during the playoffs. The team took a while to get started but have been playing great for a while now.
Anyway, please wash your hands right now. And get vaccinated or boosted if you’re eligible.
The husband of the woman Alec Baldwin killed wrote off her death so he could EP the movie.
Hillary Clinton order Seth Rich’s death so she could EP the country.
I see that The Even Bigger Fucking Moron has been giving homonym lessons to Carl.
Team Biden is testing an October Democrat campaign slogan:
Drill here, drill now.
Q2 state GDPs were released recently.
A sampling in some states we’re watching this Fall:
NH negative 2.5%
CO negative 2.0%
AZ negative 1.9%
WI negative 1.9%
PA negative 0.9%
Interestingly, Q2 GDP was up in states in which the GOP is beginning to pull away: NV positive 1.0%, FL positive 1.6%.
What does this mean? I dunno. But voters consistently point to the economy and inflation as their biggest concerns.
Biden demonstrated to MBS a level of US presidential weakness not seen in the Middle East since the Carter years.
CNN quoted a source familiar with the OPEC deliberations, who said that the Biden team’s approach to prevent a large cut was “desperate”.
A weak administration resorts to bribery in an effort to protect its hair-thin Senate “majority”:
YLB’s fucked kids will pay for higher-earners’ student loan forgiveness for decades.
One reason for the regressivity is that poor people are too stupid to fill out forms.
Another reason for the regressivity is that Biden is using old income levels in order to claim that higher-earners won’t get the benefit that, in fact, they’ll end up getting.
YLB’s kids deserve to be fucked.
11th Circuit this morning granted DOJ’s request for expedited appeal of the remaining portions of Cannon’s deeply mistaken order.
Judge Jordan agrees with DOJ that, on the merits, the appeal is justified and that it has a fair prospect of prevailing before the panel. Jordan orders initial briefs to the panel next Friday, response in four weeks, and final reply a week after that with no extensions. Schedule for oral will be determined by the panel.
I expect DOJ and NARA will regain possession of the non-marked materials before Christmas, if not before Thanksgiving – well ahead of Cannon’s schedule. And this also ratifies Thomas’ administratively wise decision to delay Trump’s stupid application for emergency stay. With the 11th now formally set to review the entire order it becomes premature for SCOTUS to intervene. For now, whatever remedies Trump might seek are available to him at the Circuit level, and in an expedited framework.
Some lawyers need to go get lawyers.
The Hill tries to assist a senile, imbecilic, incompetent, and increasingly helpless president:
Someone should tell The Hill that pointing out Biden’s racism doesn’t really help take the heat off of his senility.
✔ – Mocking death/punching down
✔ – Grammar
✔ – Cat fud
✔ – A badly mangled statistic
✔ – Sleepy Joe/Finger Bang
✔ – Sleepy Joe/Cat fud
✔ – YLB’s kids
– Butt stuff
– Hillary
– Roger/GE
– Those “Blacks”/Chicago
Did I miss any?
Sometimes I feel like I just can’t keep up with all these political issues and stuff.
But that is just such a great point.
Joe Biden is older than me, he has a stutter, and he isn’t very formal or completely scripted in the way he expresses himself.
For those reasons I guess I’ll have to really look carefully at casting a vote for the completely fake liars who pay for abortions, kill hundreds of cute beagle puppies, make crude jokes about rape, cheat on their wives, promise to execute pregnant women, and threaten to cancel Medicare.
Mr. Walker?
Would you care to speculate why the fox Atlanta pill swung six points towards your opponent in the last week?
If you wonder if following any hypothetical indictment for Espionage Act violations, the GOP would still eagerly nominate Donald J. Trump in 2024, you need look no farther than Herschel Walker.
Walker may have been a fine football player, but he is so obviously unfit to be a U.S. Senator that it defies debate. It’s not just that he’s a pretty terrible human being, exercising bouts of violent cruelty towards family, neighbors, and friends that evidence crippling sociopathy. He’s also clearly delusional, manifesting profound episodes of detachment and dangerously grandiose fantasies. He’s nuts. Perhaps not quite cannibal nuts. But sobbing at 2 am with a Glock and annihilating the staff nuts for sure.
Maybe it’s CTE. Probably is. Combined with poor socialization as a young person, and a life surrounded by enablers and you get whatever the fuck that is.
But Republicans are down to fuck. All the way down, on their knees, mouths gaping wide open, hands waving frantically for more, down for it. They have absolutely zero reservations where Walker is concerned. None. It’s not just the numbers, not just that he’s another vote for Moscow Mitch, you can be sure that most Republicans will not have to hold their noses on this one. These things we point out, – the abortions, the violence, the family abuse, the guns, the suicide attempts, – these are features as far as the Republican base voter is concerned.
Trump will be the 2024 GOP presidential nominee just as surely as Walker is the 2022 Georgia Senate nominee. All that matters to Republicans is winning and “triggering the libs”. The descent into pure nihilism is complete. They will destroy themselves eventually. And our most important job is to prevent them from destroying the United States in the process.
Responding to Walker, many partisan Republicans are going to resort to whataboutism.
So just bear in mind as you see it that Democrats fired an incumbent U.S. Senator from a swing state over jokingly making the “boob-squeeze” gesture for a photograph.
I don’t know what that was about, but it certainly had something to do with this thing that newspaper opinion columnists say is “character” and “fitness for office”. Fairly put, it was insensitive, rude, and objectifying of women. It demonstrated enormous disrespect for the humanity of a colleague.
Whataboutism doesn’t even begin to enter into this.
There is simply no credible claim to be made that the allowances Republicans make for the crippling evil demonstrated by their candidates and elected officials in any way compares to Democrats. Assume the worst that you will about Bill Clinton, and forget entirely that it was over thirty years ago, and it still does not come close.
Very effective ad:
https://youtu.be/Fne9P6rfpq0
Effective because it works on the things that actually matter to persuadable voters in the final weeks. They are not like us. Not judging. Just explaining what I see. When you talk to these people they evince a desire to be seen as engaged politically. But when you interrogate that you discover that these voters (and yes they do vote, and yes there are a lot of them) don’t know very much about policy options, or candidate positions. And if you push even a little bit on that, they’ll let you know pretty quickly that they really don’t care.
So how do they decide who to vote for? Name familiarity/recognition, impressions about personal character, and “likeability”. Oz is world famous and very likeable. But he’s phony as fuck. And when it comes to personal character, that is probably the most important element to these voters. They don’t know about policy options and they don’t want to know. They just want someone they can “trust” to deal with all that shit for them. Dishonesty, fakery, and obvious phoniness is candidate poison to these last minute deciders.
Enjoy the ad while you can. Disney will probably pull it down.
Although if they didn’t that would be saying something.
Joe, just stfu and gimme the free stuff.
When I’m in charge, no bs. I’ll reward my friends and punish my enemies.
wtf needs this democracy shit?
Hey rednecks.. Just show up at lord kreepshit’s slum rentals w/ your baby momma..
He’ll bend over and grease up for ya..
You can send the baby momma to her momma, move in your beer buddies and put your junker on blocks in sight of the whole neighborhood..
easy peasy..
17,
How the fuck did I miss this?
@4
State GDP, the leading economic indicator that millions of voters open to page B-09 of their local newspaper to track.
NH Unemployment 2% (2.9% January ’22)
CO Unemployment 3.4% (4.2%)
AZ Unemployment 3.5% (3.7%)
WI Unemployment 3.1% (3.0%)
PA Unemployment 4.3% (5.4%)
or This:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FeP5_v0VQAAel9Y?format=jpg&name=large
or this
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FeUVvPTXoAAbe-4?format=jpg&name=small
@ 20
Touche. But how about labor force percentages for each state? U6 for each state?
@ 15
So just bear in mind as you see it that Democrats fired an incumbent U.S. Senator from a swing state over jokingly making the “boob-squeeze” gesture for a photograph.
Before expressing public regret for having done so.
@ 15
Our standards of tolerance are changing. On both sides.
What did Fox put up with, until that finally stopped? What did CNN/MSNBC/NBC/CBS put up with, until that got somewhat better?
Specifically, how many chances should Jeffrey Toobin have been permitted before finally being cashiered? Jerking off on video in front of colleagues isn’t a firing offense?
Our standards of tolerance are changing. If they don’t, what’s left of #MeToo would prevent Hillary from running in 2024 unless she divorces Bill, and were she to divorce Bill there would be zero appeal to Hillary. Ergo our standards of tolerance are changing.
“As everyone knows, I had a real battle with mental health — even wrote a book about it. By the grace of God, I’ve overcome it.”
And it was just a coincidence that the publish date of that book is a year BEFORE I paid for my sinful abortion for that tramp who is lying anyway. It was as fake yesterday as it is in this ad where I admit it today. And this is all a Democrat plot that I would do all these things and admit them in a book that is clearly not true because Democrats are lying about me and everything. Who you gonna believe me or the book I wrote about me. And I love my lying sack of excrement son no matter what he lies about. He is part of the woke left.
GOP por de win wit de most obscure inside beisbol stat.
@ 26
… most obscure inside beisbol stat.
Last night my obscure contribution was mentioning that Gehrig, not Ruth, played 1B.
“Had my cock shortened.”
“I tell ya, man, my first wife died when I split her in half with what I was packin’, before my surgery. True story.”
@19. I bet Bob has a pair.
Only the GOP’s standards are getting worse.
It’s not just Matt Gaetz sharing iPhone pics of his 13-year-old “dates” or Todd Akinn glibly speculating about “enjoyable rape” anymore. Walker is obviously mentally ill, probably brain damaged, violent, unstable, and incredibly delusional.
In one recent episode Walker claimed that he is the CEO of a nationwide hospital group, that he oversaw the development of a half dozen regional hospital facilities, and that he is responsible for their day-to-day operations. He actually believes this is true.
It’s way more than a verbal stammer or mush-mouth. He is not oriented to time and place. He has been lying about so much for so long that he can’t keep any of it straight anymore. Somehow conversations he has about the lives of other people become incorporated into what he believes about his own life. Under stress, when he is not prepared in advance, he becomes angry and occasionally violent. And he goes around with a gun.
@20.
.
Careful, Bob is trying to make friends. You’re not as smart as him, and he’ll eventually let you know it.
@ 17
Joe, just stfu and gimme the free stuff.
When I’m in charge, no bs. I’ll reward my friends and punish my enemies.
Looks like DeSantis is already in charge.
Apparently nothing was learned by Democrats from the time that Obama let Bill Clinton behind the podium.
The Time Clinton Took Over Obama’s White House Podium and Stayed Awhile
They’re made for walkin’!
Trump would never have agreed to wear them. His superior instincts will prevail by March of 2024. The early primary debates won’t hurt either.
Oh noes!
Consider this clutch of Wall Street Journal headlines, mostly from last week.
“Cotton prices have dropped back to earth.” – (Sept 30, 2022)
“Lumber prices have fallen to their lowest level in more than two years, back to what they cost before the pandemic.” (Sept 27, 2022)
“Copper prices have fallen to their lowest level in nearly two years” (July 7, 2022)
“Oil Prices Slump… U.S. crude has shed about $35 a barrel in three months.” (Sept 13, 2022)
“Rents Drop for First Time in Two Years” ( Sept 26, 2022)
“Home Prices Suffer First Monthly Decline in Years.” (Sept 27, 2022)
https://www.forbes.com/sites/georgecalhoun/2022/10/03/shortages-gluts-deflation-the-bottlenecks-in-the-economy-are-breaking/?sh=31bba6104194
i.e. DEFLATION!
According to the inane, insane, deranged babbling of teh widbee kreepshit this is
GOOD…
for my kids..
AMIRITE???
The labor market is still very strong, and retail sales are healthy. The price declines are not Demand-driven. They are largely a reflection of improvements in supply.
Shocks create bottlenecks. Bottlenecks drive up prices, temporarily. The Markets are now working in their natural way to clear these bottlenecks. Further external shocks may of course disrupt this process, but the trends right now are deflationary across the commodity spectrum.
If Trump tried to get his own Vice President hung, and called for Mitch McConnell’s death, why on earth would anyone think Ron DeSantis is going to escape this normal rhetoric from Trump if he is dumb enough to challenge Trump for the nom in 2024?
The Republican abandonment of social norms goes beyond the deliberate selection of extremist, deeply unqualified candidates like Herschel Walker. Violent rhetoric, focusing on implied threats, featuring calls for violent action are now normal features of conservative politics. It’s not just that by running these candidates and these campaigns they threaten our rights and democracy.
They threaten public safety. They threaten each other.
Conservatives are now attacking doctors and clinics that offer transcare as if they were abortion clinics.
Conservatives are violent thugs. Arm appropriately.
Point of information about poll shifts in the final weeks.
Lots of things tend to explain narrowing of polls in the final weeks of most elections, reversion to the mean, “undecideds” dropping out, etc. Most are well known and reveal features about the people responding.
One less well known thing is that response rates in the final weeks plummet. Dramatically. In the battleground states and races voters are being bombarded, not just with ads and other communications, but also with post cards, phone calls, emails, texts, etc. Different groups of voters respond to that bombardment in different ways, often depending upon how they are feeling emotionally about the races at that point. That severe drop in response and how it is being driven differently among different kinds of voters is not well understood and so far as I know not being accounted for in most polls.
But regardless of the things polls are probably missing, either earlier or later in the cycle, in most of these races the thing the narrowing is probably capturing accurately is that these races in these states and districts are tight, and were always going to be tight. These are contests where we have to fight like hell for a half a point and where outcomes will be decided by a few thousand votes.
Don’t worry: King County Elections will make sure the Democrats win the statewide offices here in Washington.
@ 38,
Can you show us on this doll exactly where Miss Gregoire hurt you?
@11
You forgot IQ stuff.
@39
Dino will have to point to the ass because not only did Gregoire kick his ass, so did the judge in a hand-picked GOP district.
Dino and Rob McKenna can have a pity-party over the inability of GOP candidates to get elected to state wide offices. Last one that did went to DC to work for a Democrat. Damn RINO!.
Hey, KCE got away with it. That’s all there is to it.
@ 35
The Republican abandonment of social norms…
In 2015 Hillary Clinton’s juggernaut essentially bought the DNC.
DNC primaries were scheduled at times when few people were watching, so the huge disparity between Bernie’s popularity and Hillary’s mediocrity would be noticed by fewer undecided voters.
DNC bigwig Donna Brazile gave Hillary Clinton’s team debate questions ahead of time, and initially defended the actions, before finally admitting they were wrong.
In 2020 Jim Clyburn held hostage his endorsement until he received a public promise that Biden’s first SCOTUS nominee would be a black woman. Biden bought that endorsement.
Yeah, tell me all about norms and the erosions thereof.
Got away with embarrassing and humiliating shitty, lazy, incompetent right-wing bush league lawyers and their vapid, milk-cow clients?
Well, yes. But I feel it’s only fair to point out this normally isn’t the sort of thing one brags about.
Perhaps if you ask very nicely, Carl will delete your post.
Make you a deal. If you do. And he does.
I’ll delete this one myself. You’ve got ten minutes. Hurry!
Hello? Is Degen really this dense? (Never mind)
That isn’t a social norm. This is party housekeeping and shit real voters don’t care about. Like the fact that the GOP skipped even holding a primary in 2020.
Not calling for the assasination of your own Vice President (or any politician, or at least any from your own party) would be?
Not going fifth grade racist on the wife of your Senate Min Leader (and your own Transpo Sec) would be?
Not calling down your Rapid Reaction Force of flying monkeys to off your own Senate Minority Leader would be?
Not calling for the gas chamber for women who seek an abortion but then paying for a few on the side and lying like crazy about it would be?
Not stealing hundreds of highly classified documents so you can read them on the shitter in your private hand-job parlor in Florida would be?
Not inviting a staffer to your home for a drink then stripping her, blindfolding her, tying her up, and photographing her would be?
This is what happens once they’ve given in to the irresistible pull and slipped beyond Teh Orange Event Horizon.
Again, a party norm. And compared to the GOP literally canceling the 2020 primary, not a credible whaddabout.
Consider: Liz Cheney would really like to run in 2024. Liz Cheney says she intends to run in 2024.
Yet not one single Republican state committee chair will allow her to file. At this point, there are probably quite a few who won’t let DeSantis file if the RNC doesn’t step in. As far as party norms, the GOP lost the plot during the 2016 convention and never looked back. They all took the money. And they still are. Fuck, Romney even changed her goddam last name, moved the offices to Florida, and the rest is history.
I have no idea who the female is. I’m not really even sure if I ever met her in passing and there’s no way any part of this story is true. When a man really really wants a female the stork comes and God anoints them with a baby. But since I don’t know her. Oh….
The woman who is one of my baby mamas? Can you be more specific?
My senile, imbecilic, incompetent president is also incredibly weak.
A DC deputy mayor was arrested for assault.
No Harm No Foul in my book. Fleeing felon in Robinhood Dumbfuck Rabbit’s book.
Worry not, HA libbies. Beto is gonna turn all of this around. He’s one of them, and Joe Biden grew up in a Puerto Rican casa.
What’s Spanish for “deplorables”?
Northeastern University School of Law admitted 234 first year students out of 3,877 applicants this year. Doctor Dumbfuck wasn’t one of them.
https://abcnews.go.com/Weird/wireStory/guilty-law-school-sends-erroneous-admissions-emails-91054376
My University of Washington Law School class consisted of 140 students chosen from more than 2,200 applicants. Doctor Dumbfuck wasn’t one of them, either. But I was.
One of the things I’ve learned as a lawyer is that someone doesn’t necessarily have to be smart to become a doctor. Doctor Dumbfuck is spending his involuntary early retirement proving it.
Worry not, sad, incel troll
s.If middle school litterbox fables doesn’t distract from Dobbs you can always organize another pipe bomb mob.
Herschel is not a gay man…..He’s a Neanderthal Hetero that Bob can believe in.
@39 I think the answer is “all over.” But especially his butthurtz.
In the 2004 Washington governor’s race, KCE conducted the first of two recounts in a nondescript building on 1st Avenue. Nearly every day WSRP chair Chris Vance held a press conference in the parking lot for reporters about what was going on in the building. He never was in the building. There was a sign-in book, and his name isn’t in it. I watched the election workers feed ballots into the Opti-Scan machines. The GOP people knitted and read magazines. Later I’d hear John Carlson and other GOP mouthpieces rant to the party faithful, and just smile. All pure fiction. Nothing happened in that building except people who signed up for temporary work fed 875,000 ballots into Opti-Scan machines for $12 an hour. Nowadays I read what anonymous trolls post in these threads about that election and smile. They weren’t there either. I’m an eyewitness. The only thing that happened is grass grew and paint dried and temp workers made 12 bucks an hour. Most boring damn thing you can imagine. On the last day, after it was over, a full-time KCE employee who studied opera began singing. That was by far the most exciting part of the whole two weeks.
@48
So let me see if I have this.
Telling the funders of 9-11, the murderers of an American based WaPo reporter, friend of Jerod and his mystery billions, oil price manipulating, probable nuclear secret
Treason receiving, Putin backing dictatorial state to GO FUCK YOURSELF
Is weak.
Pushing bigly electric car manufacturing in the USA, subsidizing renewables, and telling the Saudis to GO FUCK THEMSELVES.
That’s weak apparently.
Rep. Lauren Boebert will now face a defamation lawsuit in North Carolina filed by the NC based American Muckrakers PAC LLC.
The PAC which was previously responsible for discovering and publishing information about phony Xtian Rep. Madison Cawthorn that led to him losing his primary in May of this year, thereafter turned its investigative sights on Colorado Rep. Boebert. In June they published a report based on hundreds of hours of recorded telephone conversations, court records, and police records, in which they alleged that Rep. Boebert had a lengthy arrest record dating back more than a decade, had ignored a half dozen court summonses relating to those arrests, had briefly worked as a prostitute, and had two abortions, one of which was arranged and paid for through Sen. Ted Cruz’s state office staff on behalf of Robert Mercer.
Boebert publicly, vehemently and directly denied the report to three different media organizations and in doing so directly claimed that American Muckrakers PAC LLC had fabricated every reported detail and that she would file a defamation suit naming them as the defendant. That threatened lawsuit never materialized. But in the mean time, and according to the suit filed in North Carolina, the claims of falsehood brought by Rep. Boebert resulted in a severe decline in donation revenues to American Muckrakers PAC LLC.
Michigan library could close after town votes to defund it over 5 LGBTQ-themed books
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/book-ban-lgbtq-jamestown-michigan-library/#app
“Community standards in Jamestown are not the same as in New York, L.A. or even in Grand Rapids,” he said. “We don’t want any sexually or violently graphic material on display for kids to see when they come in the library.”
One the books referenced was Heartstopper. A gentle g rated graphic novel about two teenagers who fall in love. They kiss. The bigots just don’t want anything that depicted LGBTQ issues im a positive way.
I hope the bigots children and grandchildren grow up and hate them.
KCE got away with the cheating in 2004,
The Deep State got away with cheating in 2020.
@59. Show your work or you are lying to sooth yourself from the butt hurt that less people voted for Defund Social Security republicans and conservative policies of cruelty.
@59. Incorrect, if you want to legitimately win elections, have policies that people want to vote FOR.
The Hill reported on this injury:
Which reminded me of that time Randi Rhodes of Air America was “assaulted” by two white dudes and the liberal left claimed it was a hit by the right wing.
Turned out the lying bitch got falling-down drunk and did it to herself.
Which is weird, right?
Because throughout 2020 “The Deep State” worked for Trump and was overseen by his handpicked stooges. The key states the Democrats flipped and Trump lost were run by Republicans loyal to Trump.
I guess this must be where the Space Lasers and Dead Venezuelan Dictators comes into play, Right?
As facially stupid and ridiculous as Stop the Steal conspiracy nonsense may be, we should not forget that it led directly to a pipe-bomb wielding mob of five thousand Republican assholes attacking Congress and trying to assassinate their own Vice President.
Republicans are the greatest threat to democracy and public safety in America today. They are dumb as fuck. They have guns. And they have so given up on themselves that they are willing to die for the clout.
Any vote for any Republican anywhere is a vote to end democracy.
A lazy POS like YLB can’t help but love a lazy POS like Fetterman.
Fetterman records show light schedule as Pa. lieutenant gov.
How could YLB not love a guy who, as does she, lives by handouts from taxpayers?
57. So what happens next in that kind of case?
Hell, even a retiree like Robinhood Dumbfuck Rabbit puts in more work hours than that.
But not ‘froggy.
Another poll out today indicating a likely flip of NV Senate seat and NV executive mansion to the GOP.
62,
Degen’s pointless and desperate cutaways are beginning to feel like watching an episode of Family Guy without any jokes.
https://youtu.be/gK005eDLGNk
Hey guys. Just whatever you do, don’t mention GASEN to him.
Okay?
In the NV poll @ 67 by CNN/SSRS, Cortez Masto is up 3 among registered voters.
Laxalt is up 2 among likely voters.
Zero reason to believe a RV poll this late in the election season. QoS McHillbilly has said as much.
Another blow to a company favored by Robinhood Dumbfuck Rabbit:
CLEAN ENERGY
GE is laying off 20% of its workforce devoted to onshore wind power, costing hundreds of jobs
If only there was more taxpayer cash to plow into GE.
65,
Replies, motions, discovery, etc.
Boebert would respond with motions challenging jurisdiction and seeking summary judgment. After that they’d begin the discovery process which in a case like this one could take quite some time, not least because of the defendant. Boebert being Boebert, she would likely try everything short of full defiance to resist discovery. Plaintiff will ask for more than they are entitled to. Boebert will argue to produce nothing.
It’s nothing that would affect the midterm this year.
It’s timing is probably related and intentional.
But it’s also a way for the PAC to shake the money tree.
And it remains noteworthy that Boebert never filed anything in Colorado, which has an anti-SLAPP law.
I think most voters in Colorado already regard Boebert as a complete fake and an embarrassment to the state. But injecting her into the news closer to voting is a way to remind those voters of what the Republican Party has become under Trump.
Of course she worked as a hooker. Of course she had abortions.
Of course she’s lying about it. Only the last one is important.
When I see Degen posting this kind of thing now I take it as axiomatic that he doesn’t understand how polling works and as we’ve seen so many times before, he has very, very poor math skills.
It’s not as if there is some central list maintained by The Elohim separating the “Likely” voters from all the registered voters. Survey designers fuck with the data. They manipulate their results to produce a mathematical model of what they project turnout to look like. It’s a scientific guess. And that very type of guess has grown much more unreliable in recent cycles, especially in midterm cycles. I’ve talked about survey response bias, and how it gets worsened as the elections gets closer. I’ve talked about how survey scientists have compared previous polls to exit surveys to try to measure the bias and model it out of their own results. And I’ve talked about how that hasn’t worked very well so far.
So if I’ve ever said anything at all, it is that we have less reason to trust LV polls, especially since most do not publish their precise methodology for modeling LV. Recently Trafalgar got caught, probably falsifying their reported response rate in order to conceal how they were modeling LV. Nobody really knows what’s been going on at Trafalgar this year. They use a unique system of reaching voters intended to improve their response. But that kind of thing can be potentially very problematic. When the survey methodology for contacting voters stops being random the results stop being random. Since Trafalgar will not say what they do there is no way to know if they are taking a big risk introducing bias.
So far as I know every polling firm is having the same problems with response and turnout (LV) modeling. There’s a pretty good chance that most of those who don’t fully expose their methodology and modeling are trying things like Trafalgar to make their model perform better. Because no matter how much data scientists insist that polls can’t predict elections, that’s what their customers demand.
Knowing this, and knowing that just as they have in other recent elections survey companies will deploy PR teams on November 8th and 9th to “explain” their shitty models, I’m going to keep looking for trends over time among RVs and not worry too much about small swings in the models. I don’t think the models work well anymore. Given how the modeling works, you can probably produce a swing in the modeled turnout just by changing what days you survey and what time of day. And while I recognize that not all RVs will turnout, my own personal guess is that in swing states with close contests and huge turnout ops deployed, among the voters bombarded with 24/7 ads, texts, emails, and phone calls, the RVs willing to answer the phone and sit for ten minutes enduring the survey questions have a high likelihood of turning out. But that’s just a hunch. No data behind it.
@69
If I’m an R on the ballot I’m very nervous:
Because young people aren’t polling, a 5pt MOE, the #2 issue in the poll, does the ‘likely voter’ model skew old, what’s the effect of Question 1 (polls 69% yes) and Question 2 (polls 70% yes) on minority and low income voter turnout?
@ 73
Don’t mention “skew” in the context of any poll when HA’s silliest twat is within electronic earshot.
“There is no truth to this or any other Daily Beast report.”
Except when they said I had an illegitimate child and I said it wasn’t true. And then I admitted it was true. And then there was the time Daily Beast reported that I had a SECOND illegitimate child and I said that was another lie by Daily Beast. Until my campaign people found the child and Daily Beast was lying about the child I now admit exists. Daily Beast lies ’bout everything INCLUDING the things that turn out to be true.
Not that there’s anything to be ashamed of. Women get abortions all the time and that is a horrible sin of murder and we should lock them up. But PAYING for the abortion, if that happened is just fiscal conservatism. What’s an abortion, $4-500? That’s not even a year of diapers. You think Donald Trump never paid for an abortion? He’s smart business like me. Just return it so you don’t have to pay.
The Biden Crime Family. It’s an accurate description.
I’m dubious, but $100M is quickly replaced if he deploys all of it and is credited with successful outcomes in races currently expected to be won by Democrats.
ELECTIONS
Trump to unleash millions in the midterms in possible prelude to 2024
A new super PAC, dubbed MAGA Inc., is welcome news for Republicans who’ve seen their Senate candidates vastly outraised by Democrats.
@77
I’m good for it. Just buy the ads. Just like the Veterans Charities. I’ll pay with a Tebow Helmet.
Other news that could or could not sway a few close elections:
Federal Judge in Northern District New York rules that concealed carry MUST be granted in all public places:
Specifically mentioning:
Bars (drunk and armed)
Times Square (New Years Eve, drunk, armed)
Stadiums (Drunk when the Knicks just lost, armed)
Museums (Avenge the Piss Christ!)
The Subway (Bernie Goetz just got a woody)
Likely overturned but then the Current SCOTUS can have a shot at it.
There was a Cowboys defensive player named Hollywood Henderson. One of his teammates described him as the last guy to jump on a dogpile, who would then run off with his hands in the air as if he was the primary tackler.
Team Trump might dump millions into races already in the process of flipping, and then take credit on Election Night.
Julia Jester
@JulesJester
Herschel Walker’s campaign bus arrives in Wadley, GA where he’s expected to hold his first public campaign event with press since recent allegations that he paid for an abortion for the mother of one of his known children.
@ 79
Federal Judge in Northern District New York rules that concealed carry MUST be granted in all public places:
Specifically mentioning:
Bars (drunk and armed)
Times Square (New Years Eve, drunk, armed)
Stadiums (Drunk when the Knicks just lost, armed)
Museums (Avenge the Piss Christ!)
Present drug addicts with the names Hunter and/or Biden
“concealed carry MUST be granted in all public places”
Does that include courthouses and the supreme court buildings?
And if not, why not? Why should they get extra safety? Why don’t the same rules apply to them?
First Vegetable Joe Biden’s DOJ is as likely to prosecute the Hunter Biden firearms crime as Darryl is to enforce the sock puppetry violation on HA.
74,
It’s a very good question. And quite telling that Degen dodges it.
Remember always fellow liberals, Degen is not here to think.
Thinking is no longer approved for any Republican.
Degen is here to feel and to troll.
And put simply, right now Degen is feeling scared and distracted. And his trolling has therefore become very weak.
What was by all accounts last spring, and certainly by his own accounts, a midterm election in which Degen’s beloved Trump Party was guaranteed to win control of both chambers of Congress, and most states, and in so doing redeem some of his humiliation and suffering at the hands of Dark Brandon, has now blown up in his face. His party leadership in whom he professed complete confidence have catastrophically failed him in nearly every way. The money is gone. The pandemic is over. The Dark Brandon agenda is signed into law. The October airtime was released. The primaries produced about 300 deplorable Stop the Steal grift hustlers who can’t pass a background check to work at 7-Eleven. Trump, democracy, abortion, and Pipe-Bomb Cop Killer Mob are now on the ballot.
And so all Degen can do is sit in his trailer surrounded by empties and refresh fivethirtyeight every five minutes from now until Nov. 8th. They were promised an election that would triumphantly redeem their violent treason. And all they are getting is a month of teeth grinding and dissembling about get well cards and stolen launch codes. Golden years. Ooof.
He checks all of the boxes: abuser of women? Check. Token black? Check. Former athlete who”s dumb as a box of wet hair? Check. Hides behind the American flag Check. Is a fake Christian? Check. Abortion scandals and disavows his offspring? Check. Talks like a MAGA Qnut? Check. Failed upward into a Senate race? Check. Hates liberals no matter what? Check. Likely on the take? Check.
Will vote to ban abortion regardless of being a hypocrite. Check. Will voting for him piss off libs? Check.
If he wins, the voters will suffer greatly, but that is what they wanted, cause the people they hate, will suffer more. And that is all that matters to them.
@ 85
You weren’t here in the months of September and early October of 2016, and about seven days into November that year.
I’ve survived far worse from HA commenters. Cz-252 and Lib Sci didn’t.
So have at it, QoS McHillbilly. You’ll still be able to call me a Nazi and I won’t return the insult. The slur applies to neither of us, but your side needs to use it and always will. Every opponent is always the next Hitler to the left.
Biden pardons convicted criminals for their simple marijuana possession federal offenses.
In response, liberal likely voters promise to vote before getting high, and a second time while high.
@84
The prosecutor who’s making that decision is a Trump appointee.
The gun charge is being reported as checking “no” under “user of drugs” on the purchase form which apparently is charged about 60% of referrals because it carries no real penalty and is usually pleaded down to next to nothing. The ‘proof’ is Hunter’s book that he MUST have been using when he applied. Given his in and out of rehab status that’s far from a layup.
The tax charge could stick and that’s fine. If the evidence is there go for it.
How badly do you want Hunter on a tax charge? Ivanka? Jr? Eric? How are the depositions with the State of New York and your charities and developments going?
80,
It isn’t Trump. They haven’t got his money.
Most of the remaining ad space is already booked.
The very little that remains available (held back by the local licensees) is sold at astronomical prices to poorly managed, desperate clowns.
Desperate in this case to be taken seriously in preparation for the future.
MAGA Inc was formed two weeks ago by Taylor Budowich, a 32 year old PR flak for Donald Trump the private Florida sex club owner. Budowich is currently under investigation by the Jan 6 House committee for work he is believed to have performed arranging the Pipe Bomb Cop Killer Mob that attacked Congress.
Giving a 32-year-old propeller head with no credentials his very own dark money PAC to run is how a politically corrupt criminal defendant purchases his silence.
Looks like Degen has been duped again.
@ 89
How badly do you want Hunter on a tax charge? Ivanka? Jr? Eric?
I see we’ve come a distance from the Hunter laptop being Russian disinformation, haven’t we?
Conviction on the tax charge opens up the laptop contents to inspection of everything else.
Come Fall 2024 you’ll be admitting that every family member around him is a crook but still insisting First Vegetable Joe Biden’s squeaky clean.
Don’t mention “skew” in the context of any poll
It was mentioned in every other comment back in 2012..
every other comment from a losing kreepshit troll, that is. yawwwn..
How could YLB not love a guy
who is NOT a new jersey carpetbagger and snake oil shilling “doctor”?
Fucking easy. next?
Speaking of “snake oil”? Yours truly speculates that’s what kreepshit is shilling when it’s spending time in overpriced Seattle steak houses and little junkets to Geogah..
Guess the lure of more fast bucks and cheap pieces of ass calms lord kreepshit’s shivers as it ventures from widbee.
ANTIFA! BOO!
Persecution Fetish looks good on him.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Persecutionfetish/
Well, the Dems have the abortion issue to run on in 2022, but not much else. Inflation, rampant violent crime, a shitty international affairs environment, market performance, energy policy – the Reps seem to have the upper hand.
People are going to vote their wallets in 2022. Abortion is pretty much a non-issue with Joe Sixpack. All the woke shit, too, doesn’t matter to most voters.
@91
The Laptop? The one that has been in the hands of LE since AT LEAST 2020? You mean the one the FBI has empaneled a Grand Jury on? The Grand Jury that didn’t return an indictment?
That Laptop? You believe there is something on there that HASN’T been examined by prosecutors?
The Laptop that some emails that allegedly were on it are in fact genuine (stolen) but will likely forever be inadmissible in and of itself due to chain of custody? Well done Rudy!”
That Laptop?
“Come Fall 2024 you’ll be admitting that every family member around him is a crook but still insisting Donald Trump’s squeaky clean, didn’t get a bunch of Proud Boys to assault the Capitol for him, didn’t defraud the State of New York and the IRS, and how unfair it is that his children don’t look great in orange and you really should dismiss the case against him personally for knowingly disseminating American Intelligence product.”
Why wouldn’t I take questions from the press? What are they going to do? NOT take my word for it when I say I never said that thing I said on the radio just this morning?
https://twitter.com/MollyJongFast/status/1578086010528960515?s=20&t=m5vt5CubSWBzfV3lFMUKWA
In a survey we did that was nearly complete BEFORE the allegations of Candidate Walker began to be reported we found him trailing Senator Warnock 50-38. We also found The Governor’s race a statistical dead heat.
How may Mr. Walker being a lying hypocritical fake man of God with now at least four illegitimate children, no contact with their mothers AND an abortion scandal effect the Governor’s race, tune in to 11Alive.
“Conviction”?
Wishcast much?
This is speculation based on FBI leaks about who the fuck knows? He received a target letter in December of 2020, not long before Barr quit. It’s been in limbo ever since.
One thing I can tell you is if the FBI case hangs on the contents of LAPTOP then the US Attorney won’t go in front of a grand jury with it. My assumption is the letter was premature, and the result of political pressure from Trump/Barr. The FBI has been under pressure ever since to make good on it. And maybe they can’t.
Putin’s puppet Ukrainian prosecutors obtained copies of his emails years ago, before the puppet regime fell. But the same computer forensics that validated the emails also concluded that much of the other file contents presented as having originated from Mr. Biden’s LAPTOP were added to the whole during the time when the collection of files and data were in the possession of Rudy Giuliani and a few other alcoholics. That’s a “fruit of the poison tree” type of problem.
That data has been aggressively mauled by more sweaty, semen covered hands than Degen’s ex-wife in a Vegas hotel room. There are some “chain of custody” issues, to put it mildly. One of Trump’s strip mall real estate lawyers could get it excluded.
The Brain Trust pretty much guaranteed that LAPTOP will never become a part of any criminal prosecution. But hey. There’s always Gym Jordan.
This is cringe as fuck.
Biden’s lawyer reports having had absolutely no contact from the FBI since he was ID’d as a target. In normal cases of tax evasion and lying-and-buying like these, once an decision has been made to move forward with an indictment the first thing is to reach out to the defense attorney to seek a conference in pursuit of negotiating a plea. Fines and probation to follow.
If he did it, it’s easy to prove no LAPTOP required. If he did it, charge him and prosecute him like anyone else.
But poor Degen has already torn his jersey off and flown off to BENGHAZI shrieking LAAAAAPTOOOOOOOP!!!!!!!!! Very cringe.
I’d like to nominate “Sleepy Joe” for the strain they name after him.
It should be named “Dank Brandon”!
Sedition is challenging to prove, and criminal defendants typically take plea deals only if they’re guilty and sure to be convicted, so it’s significant that a high-ranking Proud Boy pled guilty today to seditious conspiracy.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/06/politics/proud-boys-bertino-seditious-conspiracy-guilty-plea/index.html
@62 Since Rhandi Rhodes hurt herself falling drunk, it follows in Doctor Dumbfuck logic that Jim Sciutto also hurt himself falling drunk, because that’s how dumbfucks pretend to “think.”
This, however, is not thinking. It’s trolling.
102,
Just as significant is that he’s a key cooperator in a bunch of other cases.
As always it’s very hard to know how far this all extends and who can be potentially implicated by these weird beard cop killers. But it’s not just the J6 committee that has been on the money trail. And these dudes got a bunch of financial assistance to bring their people to DC that week, equip them all with digital radios, put them all up in nearby hotels, etc. If the money can be traced back to the event organizing groups then Bertino is probably one of the people who can lead the feds there, perhaps going through Tarrio and SoRelle.
@63 “Because throughout 2020 “The Deep State” worked for Trump and was overseen by his handpicked stooges.”
Louis DeJoy, as one example.
https://www.rawstory.com/louis-dejoy-2020-election/
@64 That’s nothing, you should see the lazy doctor who spends all his time on HA instead of curing sick people.
It’s no fun being in the minority, and Sen. Ben Sasse (R-NE) apparently has concluded he’ll continue to in a powerless minority unless he accepts a new job where he actually has a say about things, so he did.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/ben-sasse-resign-senate_n_633f2f48e4b08e0e6076c6bc
@72 “When I see Degen posting this kind of thing now I take it as axiomatic that he doesn’t understand how polling works and as we’ve seen so many times before, he has very, very poor math skills.”
It is my unshakeable belief that Bob is a dumbfuck no matter what the polls say.
Biden is starting the process of making marijuana legal at the federal level. Good, and it’s about damn time!
@84 Yeah, not gonna happen, Biden removed that Trump-appointed U.S. attorney over a year ago to make sure this wouldn’t happen. He fired Durham, too.
Oops, I’m thinking of the wrong president.
@87 “I’ve survived far worse from HA commenters.”
You didn’t. We drove you over the edge years ago. Crazy people are always the last to realize they’re crazy.
@91 “Conviction on the tax charge opens up the laptop contents to inspection of everything else.”
As if they haven’t been inspected already. And, one could add, modified.
Here’s an interesting question. Will the Trump-appointed prosecutor think he still has a case if nothing in the laptop is admissible because it’s all been tampered with?
@95 “Well, the Dems have the abortion issue to run on in 2022, but not much else.”
Just democracy, voting rights, marriage rights, contraception, political violence, racism and bigotry, police lynchings of black people, banning books, and sucking up to Putin, that’s all.
Well as long as everyone is all hot and bothered about anonymously sourced scoops about what investigators have…
AOL News headline: “Herschel Walker: If allegation were true, ‘nothing to be ashamed of'”
It’s true.
He should be ashamed of his constant lying. This guy lies about everything. Even his kids. For fuck’s sake, who lies about their kids? He does.
@117
It’s not a BUG it’s a FEATURE
I am NOT the Amazon of Oregon. People don’t see me as an evil corporate force. After spending big to get an ‘independent’ on the ballot now I’m throwing my cash behind the GOP. No, I am not trying to buy a Governor. I’m sure this will play very very well with the voters who really thought I wanted to see a 3rd party Betsy Johnson in office will be totally fine with how I played this. “Just do It” and vote GOP for me.
Or stick with Johnson the spoiler. It really won’t matter. (FUCK you guys, could you not have kept my massive donations secret for another couple weeks?)
114,
There’s a huge percentage of Republican voters who are completely opposed to the extreme abortion positions favored by the Trump candidates. Even if they describe themselves as “pro-life” they don’t like these “no exceptions” total bans now implemented by extreme Republicans in Texas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Mississippi, Alabama, Kentucky, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Arkansas, Louisiana, and soon to be joined by Ohio, and Arizona.
These laws are terrible and cruel enough that even plenty of Republican voters are alarmed by them. That’s going to have a profound effect in Arizona, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Partisan Republicans don’t want to think about it right now, but Dobbs and the resulting 100% total ban in Wisconsin has put Ron Johnson in a whole lot more trouble than they are prepared for. Johnson is a lazy campaigner who is going to struggle to close the deal with many of those Republican voters in his state.
But it helps tremendously for Democrats to keep reminding them all what is at stake. It’s not about legal processes, and Supreme Court debate clubs. It’s about the direct consequences of shitty laws passed by shitty Republican lawmakers. And in the case of Wisconsin it’s about forcing pre-teen rape/incest victims to carry their rapist’s offspring to full term and then being sued for custody. It’s completely monstrous. Candidates like Barnes have to hammer on that.
Yes.
Elections have consequences.
Voters need to have those consequences spelled out plainly. It’s not about kitty litter boxes and protecting the butthurt feels of police unions. It’s about hounding women suffering through the worst experiences of their lives and threatening them with prosecution for trying to protect themselves.
Terrible consequences if Republicans win elections.
That’s something most voters are already very familiar with.
Should we send them back?
https://chuckhillscgblog.net/2022/10/06/two-russians-fleeing-military-service-seek-u-s-asylum-reuters/
Kelly: “That you think you know better than women & doctors about abortion. You think you know better than seniors about Social Security. You think you know better than veterans about how to win a war.”
Masters: “the election would’ve been different if Hunter Biden story wasn’t suppressed”
57, 65, 71 — The lawsuit against Boebert was filed pro se by a guy who isn’t a lawyer and apparently is a one-man “PAC.” The complaint looks amateurish to me; for example, the request for relief includes an injunction “forbidding any further publishing of false written statements or making any false public statements about the Plaintiffs.” If she hires a lawyer, the first thing he’ll do is move to dismiss the complaint for failure to state a valid claim. I haven’t studied it at length, so I don’t know if there’s anything in it that would survive a motion to dismiss or motion for summary judgment, but the whole thing looks sloppy to me.
“Does that include courthouses and the supreme court buildings?
And if not, why not? Why should they get extra safety? Why don’t the same rules apply to them?”
It shouldn’t. They have 50 guards with M4 rifel and military firearms standing everywhere so why should YOU give up your right to carry a handgun?!
123,
Thanks. I’m sure it is a joke.
Just can’t pass up the opportunity to LAPTOP the other side. Especially when the underlying allegations are likely to be true and so consistent with who they have become.