This video (via The Agitator) thoroughly documents John McCain’s long trail of cluelessness when it comes to Iraq.
Now that we know that Iraqi Prime Minister al-Maliki supports Obama’s troop withdrawal timetable, it’s pretty clear which of the two major candidates is more in tune with what’s happening in the region. McCain continues to claim that the surge has worked, but that’s taking a very loose definition of “worked.” If the surge worked, the Iraqi leaders would have made political breakthroughs that would have allowed the Iraqis to begin shouldering the load of providing security. That hasn’t happened. And in fact, the occupation continues to cost us more and more money the longer we’re there. If the goal here is to make Iraq self-sufficient, the surge did the opposite of that. It got us further entrenched in a country where the populace has been demanding we scale back our presence for several years now.
McCain is stuck now, asking the American people for their vote just as the evidence of his spectacularly poor understanding of Iraq is being laid out in front of him. Here’s an interview he did back in 2004 at the Council on Foreign Relations:
PETERSON: Let me give you a hypothetical, senator. What would or should we do if, in the post-June 30th period, a so-called sovereign Iraqi government asks us to leave, even if we are unhappy about the security situation there? I understand it’s a hypothetical, but it’s at least possible.
McCAIN: Well, if that scenario evolves, then I think it’s obvious that we would have to leave because— if it was an elected government of Iraq— and we’ve been asked to leave other places in the world. If it were an extremist government, then I think we would have other challenges, but I don’t see how we could stay when our whole emphasis and policy has been based on turning the Iraqi government over to the Iraqi people.
PETERSON: A second and final question from me. As you know—
McCAIN: By the way, could I— if we do it right, that’s not going to happen, but we will be there militarily for a long, long, long time.
Obviously, we didn’t do it right. The decision to invade Iraq was based upon the willingness of those in the Bush Administration to believe what they wanted to believe, rather than to objectively look at the situation and take a rational course of action. But anyone with half a brain knew this by 2004. Somehow John McCain did not. He continued to believe even then that we’d never get to a situation where an elected Iraqi government would be asking us to leave.
We’ve already suffered through two terms with a President that clueless. We can’t afford another.
CJS spews:
If the surge worked, the Iraqi leaders would have made political breakthroughs that would have allowed the Iraqis to begin shouldering the load of providing security. That hasn’t happened.
——————
Can you quantify this with data? Also, a careful read of the Iraqi position is if security continues to improve they believe a withdrawal at the end of 2010 is viable. So, it’s condition-based. Finally, isn’t the Iraqi time table based on the the view they’re shouldering more and more of the “load” and will be able to do so completely by the end of 2010?
Roger Rabbit spews:
Why is it our job to police Iraq?
YLB spews:
2. To keep the oil flowing and insure China, Japan and Saudi Arabia’s dollars keep flowing into the pockets of the backers of the Republican party.
The RNC is pretty flush with cash last time I looked.
Lee spews:
@1
What you’re seeing right now in places like Sadr City are two militias fighting each other. The militias backed by al-Maliki’s government threaten Sadr’s militia. With U.S. assistance, the government-backed troops attack. Sadr’s forces then fight back to a stalemate and an agreement is reached. The same scenario played out in Basra. Basically, Sadr’s forces effectively control large parts of the country, mainly because opposition to our occupation has been high for years. What I’ve seen a lot in the press recently is that the ceasefires have been touted as victories for al-Maliki when in reality they are capitulations to Sadr. But they often give the impression that Iraqi forces are standing up. Here’s a good example.
Without U.S. support, government troops would likely be overrun by Sadr’s forces. You might be tempted to say that that’s an excuse not to leave, but there simply isn’t a path towards victory there. The longer we stay, the less legitimacy the government has. The more entrenched we become and stand in the way of Iraqi self-sufficiency, the more powerful Sadr becomes.
If you look at the history of Israel and Palestine, this has been the pattern. We convince ourselves that despite public opinion, the forces loyal to us will hold up. They never can. When you get stuck like this, you have to acknowledge that your authority is not trusted enough, and that any government or fighting force seen aligned with you will not be trusted either. This is the problem we’re encountering in Iraq.
ByeByeGOP spews:
The righties as usual want to have it both way – if the surge worked then let’s get the fuck out – if the surge didn’t work and we need to stay – 1023 year old FlipFlop McCain looooooses his political talking point.
Either way the Bush regime has egg on its face over this whole deal.
The one comeback I haven’t heard yet from President Obama’s people is simple. When FlipFlop McCain says Obama got it wrong and showed poor judgment in not backing the surge, why not trump that with – yeah – and YOU showed even worse judgment by voting to get us in there in the first place you fucking ancient asswipe!
GBS spews:
Roger Rabbit @ 2:
We have to police it because of the Pottery Barn rule that Gen. Powell so infamously quoted “If we break it, we own it.”
Looks like that ass hole fucking Jerk OFF of a president didn’t listen to the general on this issue, either.
Troll spews:
Lee, good post, but you and your co-bloggers on HA aren’t going to throw sand in my eyes. No sir. You aren’t fooling me. Unlike most of your readers, I am highly educated. I know that half of what you write is meant less to educate people, and more to divert attention away from some other news story, and in this case, what you are NOT talking about is the fact that John Edwards, a possible VP candidate for Obama, is cheating on his wife who has cancer.
Lee spews:
@7
Good show, my friend. Good show. Not quite as excellent as this effort, but awfully close.
Troll spews:
Cool. I’m in like some kind of online dictionary thing.
GBS spews:
First of all let’s quantify what this really is. It is NOT surge, it is an escalation.
The so called “surge” according to the pentagon is now officially over. BUT, we have more troops in Iraq today than we did prior to the “surge.”
The escalation, from a military point of view worked. Of course it worked, but where’s the diplomatic teams? Where are Condi Rice and her entourage? Who’s heading up the Iraq transition teams? Where are the negotiations?
That’s why we spent the American blood and treasure, so there would be a lull in the violence and we could get the Iraqi government to cooperate.
Sadly, that hasn’t happened and George W. Bush, John McSame and the rest of his administration have been derelict in their duties.
John McCain is vying to be the Commander-in-Chief during a time of war, the mother fucker doesn’t even know the fucking geography in the theater of operations. Iraq is not on the fucking border with Afghanistan.
He doesn’t know the difference between the Sunnis and the Shiite.
John McCain cannot be trusted with the lives of our brave men and women in uniform. Our military deserves a leader with sound judgment that’s proven and that is Barak Obama.
GBS spews:
Troll at 7 PROVES why Republicans cannot be trusted to lead.
Here we are in the middle of a war gone wrong, an economy in the shitter, gas and oil prices and all time record highs and strangling America to death, the rule of law being destroyed by Bush and what’s this fuck face worried about?
A Democrat allegedly having an affair!!!
No thanks, this is where I came in and I know how this ends.
Say good bye to the Reagan Revolution. It was destroyed by George W. Bush and each and every person who was more loyal to Bush than America, but mostly to those who voted for Bush’s 2nd term.
Et tu, Brute?
GBS spews:
Troll @ 7:
You may want to check out ol’ eye of Newt’s marital past and wife with cancer, butt fuck.
Troll spews:
Excuse me, but I am AGAINST this war. In fact, I’m also against America encircling the globe with its garrisons. Do you realize we have over 750 military bases on foreign soil? And that’s a number that doesn’t decrease under Democratic Presidents. The fact is, when it comes to our foreign policy, history has shown that is really doesn’t matter which party in the White House.
GBS spews:
Troll at 13:
There’s no excuse for you or your lack of understanding how America strategically positions our military assets around the world.
There’s a military doctrine known as Fordward Deployment that I won’t get into here, mainly because it’s over your head, but the main point of it is to conduct our all of our wars on foreign soil. It’s much better to conduct warfare in your enemy’s country. I’ve seen war up close and personal, trust me on this one.
So, thank God president of both parties “get” this doctrine. The difference being, the judgment to determine when diplomacy is the correct course of action and when military force is NECESSARY.
John McSame lacks the judgment necessary to lead our nation in war. George W. Bush, obviously lacks any credible judgment.
CJS spews:
Sadr’s forces effectively control large parts of the country
Is there data/analysis to support this?
Without U.S. support, government troops would likely be overrun by Sadr’s forces.
Then why would the government argue for a 2010 time table for the withdrawal of US combat forces?
But there simply isn’t a path towards victory there.
But, there may be a path towards greater stability with time as ISF forces continue to strengthen, as Cordesman argues.
Marvin Stamn spews:
Obama is only up a couple points, within the margin of error with rasmussen. Ouch.
And the gallup poll with obama only up a couple points.
Things sure aren’t looking good for the democrats that are counting on obama. Mcsame should be getting his ass handed to him yet obama can’t put any distance between him and mcsame. Is obama the john kerry of 2008?
CJS spews:
Things sure aren’t looking good for the democrats that are counting on obama. Mcsame should be getting his ass handed to him yet obama can’t put any distance between him and mcsame. Is obama the john kerry of 2008?
It will be interesting to follow this over the next few days, as polls measure the impact of Obama’s trip. If, as many pundits have argued, Obama’s looked very presidential during this period while McCain has committed gaffe after gaffe, one would expect Obama to get a lift. If he doesn’t, then that would seem to argue that voters aren’t seeing what the pundits are.
Lee spews:
@15
Is there data/analysis to support this?
http://www.time.com/time/world.....ml?cnn=yes
Then why would the government argue for a 2010 time table for the withdrawal of US combat forces?
Because, as I said, there’s no feasible path for us to change that. And in fact, the longer we stay, the more animosity there will be built up towards Iraqi troops that have aligned with us.
But, there may be a path towards greater stability with time as ISF forces continue to strengthen, as Cordesman argues.
They said that about Palestine for years. They were always wrong. And they never figured out why. They all acted shocked when Hamas won the election.
GBS spews:
Marvin @ 16
How many percentage points did George W. Bush win by? In both elections?
Yeah, Obama’s in reaaaaaaal trouble.
Only in Republican World would being ahead be a bad thing.
Watch what happens when Obama gives his speech in Germany. Think of Germany’s history as they go nuts for a “black” American presidential candidate.
That will be tiny fraction of the enthusiasm that will be generated when Barak Obama gives his acceptance speech in Aug on the 45th anniversary of Dr. Martin Luther King’s “I have a dream” speech.
If McSame doesn’t derail the Obama freight train NOW, he’ll be a distant memory come the morning of November 5th.
Imagine it: 80,000+ people going nuts at the stadium in Denver, the parking lot completely filled with Democrats, the media coverage, while Obama, THE Great Communicator giving the speech of a lifetime invoking images of JFK giving his acceptance speech at the LA Coliseum, MLK invoked, RFK invoked, an Army of fired up LIBERAL storming across the country taking control of the constitution and American values.
Good luck with John McLOSER.
OUCH!!
Roger Rabbit spews:
@3 Silly me! I knew that, of course.
Daddy Love spews:
March 2008: Just four percent of Iraqis said they had “a great deal of confidence” in U.S. occupation forces, compared to 46 percent who said they had no confidence at all. 72 percent strongly or somewhat oppose the presence of Coalition forces in Iraq.
September 2007: Nearly three-quarters of Baghdad residents polled said they would feel safer if U.S. and other foreign forces left Iraq, with 65 percent of those asked favoring an immediate pullout, according to State Department polling. 71 percent wanted the Iraqi government to ask the U.S. to leave within a year.
January 2006: “Asked what they would like the newly elected Iraqi government to ask the US-led forces to do, 70% of Iraqis favor setting a timeline for the withdrawal of US forces.”
Roger Rabbit spews:
@7 Aren’t you confusing Vice President Edwards with that Gingrich fellow?
P.S., I’m curious which juvenile hall you were educated in?
CJS spews:
Is there data/analysis to support this?
http://www.time.com/time/world /article/0,8599,1725296,00.ht ml?cnn=yes
Two of the militias have close ties to the government: Sadr controls a large block of the members of parliament, and the Badr Brigades are the military arm of the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, the largest Shi’ite party.
———-
The question was, is there any data to support your claim “Sadr’s forces effectively control large parts of the country.”
The article discusses the operation against militias in Basra, but provides no data regarding the extent of control of Sadr’s forces throughout Iraq.
Roger Rabbit spews:
@16 You’ve got a point. We need to allow for an extra 5-million vote margin to offset Republican cheating and vote suppression.
Daddy Love spews:
16 MS
The funny thing is, our presidents aren’t elected by popular vote. Did you know that?
And Obama leads McCain in several states that went for Bush in 2004, such as Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Montana, New Mexico, and Nevada. McCain leads Obama in exactly ZERO states that went for Kerry in 2004.
So really, the news for Barack Obama could hardly be better.
Daddy Love spews:
We will leave Iraq, and Moqtada al-Sadr will take over, with Ayatollah Sistani supporting him for a cut of the pie, so that the 60% Shiite majority will rule, as one might expect.
Howevedr, Iraq will still not be stable because the Kurds have the best (most professional and disciplined) militias and they want the northern oil fields for themselves, but the Shiites oppose that The Sunnis hate Shiite dominance and will be funded militarily by Saudi Arabia, and the US will not object to this the way they do Iranian “interference.”
None of these things are problems the US military occupation could or will solve, so we go home.
Lee spews:
@23
What kind of data do you expect to have? Government troops with American backing have twice in 2008 tried to root out Sadr’s forces, only to have to request ceasefires in order to save face. If that doesn’t give you an indication of the power he has and the influence he holds within the country (especially when you recognize the amount of Parliament seats he’s won through the ballot box), I’m not sure what will.
ByeByeGOP spews:
President Obama will win by 10 points. Given the 87 percent country is going the wrong way poll numbers (NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll) the change candidate wins. In fact, he could run a terrible campaign and still win. Republicans are on track to lost another 25 House seats and another 10 Senate Seats – we’re starting to look like we’ll have a SUPER majority in both Houses and in the White House. Then we can just tell the republicans to stay home because we don’t care what they think and there won’t be a fucking thing they can do about it.
Jim, (a genuine musician) spews:
Beethoven found out his music was used for this and he is now spinning in his grave. Roughly 1,800 rpm.
CJS spews:
What kind of data do you expect to have?
—————-
Data that shows Sadr has effective control over large parts of Iraq. Certainly the extent of his control would be analyzed/discussed carefully somewhere by qualified experts who follow Iraq.
Marvin Stamn spews:
Obama is caught in yet another lie. This is becoming a daily occurrence.
“Just this past week, we passed out of the out of the U.S. Senate Banking Committee – which is my committee – a bill to…
Here’s the committee
SeattleJew spews:
Lets NOT be simplistic, or as Obama says .. we got in stupid, we need to get out smart.
Lee is correct that we would be asses (maybe that is good for HA?) if we supported a failed regime. Indeed the lack of any definition of “success’ is McC’s biggest weakness. OTOH, the peace movement needs to give a lot more thought to what a successful withdrawal might be.
A second Iraqi/Iranian war? Establishment of a strong Iranian ally state that colonizes the Sunnis, a Sudanese like chaos … are these outcomes acceptable?
At the same time I think lee is naive when to comes to withdrawal. The ebst analysis I have read was by Admiral Zinni. In brief he lays out the strategic issues, the need we and other major nations have to a peaceful Indian Ocean. He, Zinni, condemns the peaceniks equally for their simplistic ideas with teh Bushies.
In practice, I am very impressed with Obama’s advisers and am confidant they will do a great job. I am less impressed by McC advisers and worry both about his obvious age and about residual loyalty to the Bushinajumpsuit. Thats aid, the words used by Obama and the words used by McC to describe what they plan for Iraq arr really not very different.
Finally, I wish Lee had not snuck in his analogy to Israel/Palestine. That issue is certainly inseparable from the Bushfuckup we call Iraq, but the only similarity in the local scene may be that the Kurds are in many ways Jews of the Arab world. In the case of Israel we supported the rights of Jews to have a nation i8n opposition to the racism and bigotry of the Islamic world. We did the same think in Kurdistan/Iraq and that seems to be working! The one part of the iraq mess that is NOT a mess is Kurdistan. No sane person wants us to withdraw in way that will undermine this success. (but then who says the turk and irani-antikurdis are sane?)
Comparing the antisemitism of the surrounding Arab countries to the relationship of Iraq to its neighbors or the relationship of the Sunni and Shia to each other makes no sense .. at least to me.
Daddy Love spews:
Sayyid Moqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army, also known as the Jaish al Mahdi or JAM, controls the largest bloc of seats in the Iraqi Parliament.
It is also true that in the months following the fall of the Saddam Hussein regime, Al-Mahdi Army fighters gained and still retain control of a number of Shi’ite cities, including Al-Kut, Al-Kufah, and Al-Najaf, and Al-Basrah. Al-Basrah police chief General Hassan al-Sade said, “The militias are the real power in Basrah…To defeat them I would need to use 75 percent of my forces, but I can rely on only a quarter.” Control of these areas is in addition to the huge Baghdad slum of Sadr City, openly controlled by JAM.
In addition to control of cities in the South and the Sadr City portion of Baghdad, Sadr’s four ministries control 70,000 uniformed, armed men who are part of a government agency known as the Facilities Protection Service, according to the Interior Ministry. U.S. military commanders acknowledge that the agency has mushroomed to more than 140,000, largely outside American notice.
Abdul Aziz Hakim, the leader of the Supreme Council (ISCI), boasted to his followers in December that he could muster 200,000 militia fighters. The Sadr movement claims more.
They live there. Our armies can be there only at incredible cost. We will leave, sometime, and they know it. We have to. Until then, they will wait.
Marvin Stamn spews:
But bush wasn’t running against the republican party. Against mcsame and 4 more years of the same policies as bush. Against an unpopular war. Against the worse economy. Against mcsame that was a war veteran. Against a party that america is done with. Etc. etc.
Oh. I was wondering where obama was going to find more voters. Oops, the germans at the nazi site won’t be voting.
YLB spews:
We’re going to be treated to volumes of braindead bullshit from Mahvelous Marvin from here on out.
It will only make a victory by Obama in November that much sweeter.
Daddy Love spews:
31 MS
That’s the best you have? That Obama refers to a bill he sponsored in introduced into the Senate passing the Banking Committee and says “my committee” instead of “my bill,” and that shows somehow that he’s a lying bastard who can’t be trusted?
Do you know how many times on HIS trip to the ME that someone has had to whisper something to Obama to get him to correct something stupid that he said? ZERO, pal. McCain can’t go to the bathroom with someone having to issue a correction for him afterward.
McCain’s latest is claiming that the “surge” caused the Anbar Awakening, which in Reality World happened the year before Bush announced the surge.
So who here is focusing on a triviality, and who is nailing a candidate for a lie told to support his political policies? Hint: you’re the former.
Daddy Love spews:
34 MS
But Barack Obama is black, and has been on the national scene for four years as opposed to McCain’s 26. Undecideds will break for Obama late, as they did for Reagan in 1980. He is building an entirely new political coalition, and it’s new to the media and pollsters as well.
But I’ve already shown you @25 that McCain is in REAL, DEEP trouble vis-a-vis the Electoral College, which is where the action is. It’s only states that count, baby. Gallup says so too.
CJS spews:
Sayyid Moqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army, also known as the Jaish al Mahdi or JAM, controls the largest bloc of seats in the Iraqi Parliament.
—————————-
And how many seats is that?
Incidentally, the articles referenced are two to three years old.
Marvin Stamn spews:
And if obama doesn’t win, what happens?
No doubt this blog will go down, or more likely become members only.
YLB spews:
Old, forgetful, bellicose, paunchy McSameOld doesn’t have a fucking prayer.
http://dailykos.com/storyonly/.....658/555635
YLB spews:
Oops. So much for more and more offshore drilling:
http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/07/.....index.html
So much for a McSameOld photo op on a oil rig.
YLB spews:
Ouch!
http://www.businessweek.com/th.....ns_br.html
ByeByeGOP spews:
The right believes they can lie their way to the White House like they did last time. Won’t work – we have proof of their lies and child molesters like them never win in the end.
Politically Incorrect spews:
Troll said:
“I’m also against America encircling the globe with its garrisons.”
No kidding! We can start by just ending the Iraq mess and then start pulling out of Europe, Japan, and Korea. It’s time for those countries to take care of themselves.
delbert spews:
Mookie al-Sadr beat the shit out of the US and Iraqi armies’ fists with his face. Yeah, he beat ’em bad. So bad, he left… and took what was left of his army with him.
Daddy Love spews:
38 CJS
Well, there’s just no pleasing Mr. Picky Pants, is there? You asked for evidence that Moqtada al-Sadr and JAM control a significant proportion of the country. I provided plenty, I’d say. How many seats JAM controls in the Iraqi parliament is probably available, but because I provided the information from a maninstream new source that they have the largest bloc, AND because no elections are going to be held anytime soon (new enough for you?), it’s pretty fucking well still true, dork.
As far as how much Iraqi territory JAM controls now, why don’t you go over there and ask around? I am sure they’re pretty open about it.
Or you can listen to Bush and McCain surrogates. They’ve proven their integrity and their competent use of intelligence time and time again.
Daddy Love spews:
45 del
Don’t be foolish. The member of JAM live in Iraq. Moqtada went to Qom in Iran to train to be an Ayatollah, so that he would have even greater influence in Iraq when he returns, equal or greater than Sistani’s.
Hey, I just showed you that JAM’s Iraqi ministries alone had 140,000 men-at-arms a few years ago, and if you read the articles, or if you were capable of reading the articles, you’d see that his people have thoroughly infiltrated Iraq’s “security forces” (which is why they wouldn’t fight him in the last few dustups). They’re just waiting us out now.
Daddy Love spews:
Is every Wingnut this stupid and uninformed?
Hint: yes.
CJS spews:
Well, there’s just no pleasing Mr. Picky Pants, is there? You asked for evidence that Moqtada al-Sadr and JAM control a significant proportion of the country. I provided plenty, I’d say.
—————————–
You provided two year old data, at best. You provided nothing regarding the extent of Sadr’s control today. There should be much more current information, especially give the amount of flux in the country over the last few years.
You should have at least some idea of the size of the Sadr bloc if you’re asserting its out-sized role.
Rather than engage in name calling stick to the topic. It serves no purpose.
Tukow spews:
Is every Wingnut this stupid and uninformed?
Sometimes. But it can afflict anyone, as I’m sure you’re aware.
Daddy Love spews:
49 cjs
This is exactly what I mean by stupid and misinformed. I’ll lay it out for you, and while I do I will feel free to refer to you in any way I please. And I said nothing about an “outsized role,” I merely cited that they are the largest parliamentary bloc.
1. The article I quoted cited the Sadrists constituting the largest bloc in the parliament. I did not “assert” it. It is fact. As such, I realize that you are duty-bound to reject it in favor of some sort of ideological dogma, but it is fact nonetheless.
2. There has not been another election in Iraq since the election in which the Sadrists became the largest bloc in the Iraqi parilament. I provided a cite from this week (not two years ago) where the highly anticipated new elections have been postponed again and probably will not occur this year.
QED The Sadrists are still the largest bloc in the Iraqi parliament.
If you’re interested in the number of their seats, as I said, I’m sure it’s just “a Google” for you. Personally, I’m not so concerned. I know that they are poltiically the most popular and successful political movement in Iraq. Because Iraqis have said so with their votes.
If you’re curious about topics such as whether the Sadrists still control four (or more) of Iraq’s 39 ministries, mybe you should pay a LOT more attention to news from there. I’m not your momma.
Daddy Love spews:
The last Iraqi elections were held in 2005.
CJS spews:
It is also true that in the months following the fall of the Saddam Hussein regime, Al-Mahdi Army fighters gained and still retain control of a number of Shi’ite cities, including Al-Kut, Al-Kufah, and Al-Najaf, and Al-Basrah. Al-Basrah police chief General Hassan al-Sade said, “The militias are the real power in Basrah…To defeat them I would need to use 75 percent of my forces, but I can rely on only a quarter.” Control of these areas is in addition to the huge Baghdad slum of Sadr City, openly controlled by JAM.
In addition to control of cities in the South and the Sadr City portion of Baghdad, Sadr’s four ministries control 70,000 uniformed, armed men who are part of a government agency known as the Facilities Protection Service, according to the Interior Ministry. U.S. military commanders acknowledge that the agency has mushroomed to more than 140,000, largely outside American notice.
—————–
All the information above dates from at least two years ago. It’s clearly very dated and relying on it to make a point about the extent of control of Sadr is sort of inane. And on the subject of “misinformed”, the size of the Sadr bloc is 30 . . . out of 275 seats – far from dominant, which was the point being discussed. And the Unified Iraqi Coalition – from which the Sadr bloc withdrew in 2007 (after the 2006 article you relied upon for your research) – has 83 seats . . . and it is the largest parliamentary bloc.
Somebody said you’re at Microsoft . . . true?
Lee spews:
@53
CJS,
If you want something more recent, you can peruse through this report from Gareth Porter. It’s a pretty complete rundown of how much leverage and power al-Sadr and his militia still have:
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/M.....2Ak01.html
A couple of points in there:
1. Al-Maliki has been steering the Bush Administration towards diplomatic resolutions to the infighting with al-Sadr, which should be a testament to the strength of al-Sadr’s militia.
2. Al-Sadr’s militia has been quieter on the open insurgency front because al-Sadr has become more and more convinced that he has the leverage to achieve his goals diplomatically.
3. The underlying problem in Iraq is that al-Sadr and Iran have a stronger influence on al-Maliki than the Bush Administration does, which is why you’ve been seeing the rift this week.
My own observations stemming from that:
1. The stories out of Basra indicate that while the people support al-Sadr’s goals of ending the American occupation, they certainly don’t like the radical Islamist shit.
2. Al-Sadr’s forces are as powerful as they are solely because of American occupation. The argument that a timetable for departure emboldens the enemy is pure horseshit. It does the opposite. It allows for Iraqis in the Shiite areas to more effectively do what the former insurgents in Anbar have been doing with al-Qaeda, to become a moderate front against radicalization.
3. The longer we stay in Iraq, the more difficult it will be for the moderates to eventually win that fight. If we stay in Iraq long enough, it could become a situation akin to Palestine, where the radicalism becomes so entrenched, it becomes rooted in the culture.
CJS spews:
Lee,
Thanks for the thoughtful discussion. And this is for you:
http://www.csis.org/component/.....view/id,3/
a highly critical assessment of the Iraqi forces (US Troop Withdrawals from Iraq: How Ready are Iraqi Forces?).
Lee spews:
@55
You too. Thanks for the link.