With about 50,000 ballots left to count, Democratic challenger Mark Begich has pulled ahead of Alaska US Senator Ted Stevens by an insurmountable 3 vote margin.
Well, no, 3 isn’t really an insurmountable number, but from what I’m hearing from the people on the ground in Alaska, the trends most likely are. So perhaps Alaskans really haven’t reelected a convicted felon.
UPDATE:
Oops. Begich now leads by 814 votes.
Hehehe. Sorry Sarah!
AlterNet has an article cogently explaining why Franken will win in Minnesota. That’s 2 down and 1 to go in the Dec. 2 Georgia runoff election. Looks like God wants the Democrats to have 60 seats.
“No one should be surprised if Democrat Al Franken is elected to the U.S. Senate …, and that a statewide hand recount, an election contest in Minnesota courts, and the United States Senate will all confirm this result.
“Here’s why. Minnesota only uses paper ballots, no punch cards and no touch screen. There is a complete paper trail. …
“There is also a strong tradition in Minnesota that every vote counts. Any discernable mark is counted as evidence of voter intent.
“Minnesota courts don’t blame voters if election officials made a mistake in keeping the ballots in less than ideally secure locations; they require evidence of actual fraud. …
“Minnesota has almost no provisional ballots, because voters can register or reregister on Election Day.
” … [A]bsentee ballots are subject to a signature match before they are removed from the security envelope. Franken’s attorneys are disputing the decision of the canvassing board in Hennepin County, which includes Minneapolis, to exclude 461 absentees, largely due to apparent signature mismatches. If some of these voters authenticate their signatures, the state canvassing board will almost certainly count them. The party ID of these voters is known, so it is highly likely that the great majority voted for Franken.
“For all these reasons, Coleman faces long odds in holding on to his lead, which had shrunk to 206 by last Friday evening. …
“There are many steps to a certified election result in Minnesota and each … reinforces the principle that every discernable vote will count. Mandatory sampling audits will continue to yield corrections until the state canvassing board meets on Nov. 18. The board, comprised of Democratic Secretary of State Mark Ritchie and four state judges (yet to be named) will adjudicate the Hennepin County absentee ballots. The next day the full hand recount will begin. Once the state canvassing board determines a result, the losing candidate will most probably file an ‘election contest’ in the state Supreme Court.
“The rule the court announced is clear: ‘The object of all election procedural laws is to ascertain the true vote of the people and to declare elected the candidate who receives the most legal votes in a legal election. Absent fraud, bad faith, or jurisdictional defects, technical irregularities in the procedure followed in obtaining the correct result will frequently be overlooked in order to give effect to the true vote of the people.’
“Under the Constitution and Senate Rule II, the United States Senate remains the judge of the returns of this election. The certification of election results by Minnesota Secretary of State Mark Ritchie is only prima facie evidence of who actually won. But absent clear evidence of real fraud, Coleman will have a hard time persuading his colleagues to question the state’s count if it concludes that Franken is the victor.”
(Quoted from AlterNet under fair use.)
Did they count the absentee ballots from Anchorage first? Begich would be a lot stronger there.
In Georgia, Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-Draft Dodger) was favored in most pre-election polls to beat Democratic challenger Jim Martin by 5 points, but his actual margin was 3 points. RealClearPolitics said “polling late in the campaign … made Chambliss appear more vulnerable than first expected.” With the presidential campaign now over, Democrats can pour resources into the runoff. It’s still probably uphill, but a strong GOTV effort in Democratic precincts might turn the tide. And we have God on our side.*
* No, God didn’t tell me this, but the Great Mother Rabbit Spirit did (in a dream); and besides, why would God go to all the trouble of delivering 59 seats to us if She wasn’t gonna give us the 60th seat? I predict God will win this one, too.
Roger Rabbit @ 3
I would think that a Democrat would be even more likely to pick up “voter intent” votes in Minnesota in the Franken-Coleman recount, than was the case in the Rossi-Gregoire recount in Washington in 2004. Has a lot to do with political demographics.
I wonder how signature mismatch rejections compare in Hennepin County, versus other counties. There were obviously counties where Coleman ran rather strongly as well.
Roger Rabbit @ 3
The party ID of these voters is known, so it is highly likely that the great majority voted for Franken.
From what I can tell, Minnesota does not register voters by party. I could be mistaken, but I found no party affiliation reference on a Minnesota voter registration application.
Well, maybe Ted Stevens is dead politically. They had about 95,000 ballots to count, and just finished 60,000 of them. It appears that these 60,000 ballots may have been fairly uniformly distributed throughout the state, and that the remaining 35,000 ballots are as well. We will see. It is just amazing that so many people voted for Stevens.
@7 There are other ways to get at least an approximation of that information.
RP @ 8: “It is just amazing that so many people voted for Stevens.”
You got that right. Alaska is different, but voting for Stevens this time around was simply juvenile. The fact that the senatorial race there is so close, between a highly qualified Democrat and a Republican felon, proves that anyone elected to state office in Alaska is really not someone we need to look to nationally. Shoot, did John McCain not get that memo?
@10 I suspect there were a lot of absentee ballots cast for Stevens before the jury verdict. Many Alaskans work away from their home precincts.
Is it true that Sarah Palin is the illegitmate lost sister of Lilly Tomlin?
12
Actually, I believe she is Satan’s own spawn. Every now and again, he decides to not just cause mischief, but procreate. Damn, I wish the Devil would just tend to the underworld.
The first thing the Democratic Senate should do after they get a 60 filibusterer proof majority is to make it a law that all Republican politicians are required to wear clown suits.
And all republican supporters must register as sex offenders and be required to go door to door proclaiming that they should be kept 500 yards away from children and farm animals.
oh, and they have to smack themselves in the balls every hour on the 9’s.
That will do for now. It is a start.
14
Seems perfectly reasonable to me. I’ll second your motion.
From a Blog I read up thar’ in Alaska, Begich had been pushing his supporters to vote early & those are many of the votes now being counted. AK held off counting absentee ballots to ensure people didn’t vote by absentee & then again later at the polls:
“Tens of thousands of votes have yet to be counted before the vote is certified. But this batch gives us a clear indication of a trend. Begich increased his numbers by a relative 4000+ votes, and took traditionally conservative districts in Anchorage’s affluent “Hillside” area.
As we move forward, Alaska’s “reddest” areas have already been counted. Those outstanding districts are mainly rural and tend to go Democratic. Friday will see more than 20,000 “question ballots” (provisional ballots) counted, and the remaining absentee ballots are slated to be counted Monday.
So nothing is final yet, but the news is definitely good.”
@ 8 RP: “It is just amazing that so many people voted for Stevens.”
Actually, I’ve been reading most of the stories at the Anchorage Daily News for awhile. Immediately after Ted’s convictions & McCain/Palin calls for him to step down – there were war drums beating to the Republicons to Vote FOR Stevens!
The idea was that IF Stevens were to win and later expelled, there would have to be a new election held for the seat with a new & different Republican running for Ted’s seat against Begich.
I’m inclined to think that idea brought him many votes; albeit there are MANY Republicons up there that believe that even though Stevens is a crook – he’s THEIR crook! They don’t want the Lower48 telling them what to do.
As far as Palin being allowed to appoint someone, should Stevens be expelled, DailyKos gave a great explanation:
“Other outlets have reported that because of the general outrage concerning a former governor of Alaska who appointed his own daughter to a US Senate seat, they amended the state constitution to force an immediate special election. (i.e. the governor no longer has this power) ”
There was some discussion on the blogs I read, about whether Palin could resign her Gov seat and her friend, the Lt. Gov taking her place, could then appoint her. But that law they passed, made it a moot point. A special election would have to be held while leaving them with no representation from Steven’s seat for several months. Fascinating, it’s been a regular soap opera!
It will be much better, all the way around, if Begich wins!
Goldy, your “Edit” function works goofy, did you know that?
hel was supposed to be “held”.
Actually, it will be so much better, all the way around, if Begich simply WINS this time around! Keeping my fingers crossed.
Opps, guess I spoke too soon and the edit function did reflect my changes after all. My apologies Goldy.
alaska, in all truth, is more intersting than most
god, how this all works out is movie material
and is Ted too honest to stuff ballots, on sure, too honest
this guy is the most corrupt scroat in national politics
Palin in congress, great, sideshow to the max, she might chew some nambly pambly Dem. butt
which is overdue
Does Harry Reid get hardons, Sarah would find out
harvey milk,
back to San Francisco with you.
Asshole.
I’m confused. Anchorage is supposed to be a Democratic strongpoint in Alaska, and the “rural” districts of Alaska also trend Democratic? Then where are the Republican votes coming from?
The RNC’s mimeograph machine?
Then where are the Republican votes coming from?
Places that pass for suburbs … like Wasilla. Also, Anchorage at least used to be pretty darn Republican.