“These things happen in every election.” That’s what Republican Secretary of State Sam Reed said this morning on KUOW. And that’s why Dino Rossi, in his wisdom, voted for a major revision of our election code, including a contest statute with such a high burden of proof:
RCW 29A.68.110
Illegal votes — Number of votes affected — Enough to change result.No election may be set aside on account of illegal votes, unless it appears that an amount of illegal votes has been given to the person whose right is being contested, that, if taken from that person, would reduce the number of the person’s legal votes below the number of votes given to some other person for the same office, after deducting therefrom the illegal votes that may be shown to have been given to the other person.
The Republicans are going to have to prove, at the very least, the appearance that the margin of illegal votes given to Gregoire exceeds her margin of victory. In Foulkes v. Hayes, the court accepted evidentiary findings of substantial ballot tampering on behalf of the contested candidate. But there has been no such evidence uncovered thus far in the governor’s race.
Given the lack of evidence that illegal ballots favored a particular candidate, it is not certain that the courts would even attempt to assign these votes to one candidate or the other. But if they did, the only reasonable method would be to take the known margins in the counties or precincts in which they were cast, and extrapolate this to the disputed ballots. Ironically, by that method, the 52 votes cast by felons allegedly found by the BIAW in Pierce County would result in a net gain for Rossi.
As to the unknown number of provisional ballots that are alleged to have been improperly scanned at the polling places, it is not clear that these even fit the definition of “illegal.” These ballots were not properly canvassed, due to error by poll workers. But if they had been handled properly, it seems likely that 90% of them would have been valid votes, based on the county wide percentages. So perhaps, maybe 30 to 40 ballots were counted that would not have otherwise.
There are errors and mistakes in every election, but there has been no evidence of misconduct, and no evidence of illegal votes being cast in favor of Gregoire. Furthermore, there has been no evidence that this election has been more flawed than the typical election.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, if this election is tossed out on the evidence publicly presented thus far, then every close election should be tossed out, because the precedent will be that you simply need to prove that the margin of victory was within the margin of error… and that is true of every close election.
I don’t believe the courts would want to set that kind of precedent. And as Sam Reed reiterated this morning on KUOW: “I don’t think Republicans have a smoking gun.”
It seems as if SecState Sam Reed flip-flops every day. One day he says we Rossifarians have a case, the next he doesn’t.
Oh, well. In a matter of a few hours, this may all be moot. Or wilder than hell when Commander-in-Chief of the Coalition of the Voting and Governor-elect Dino Rossi will decide to contest the election or not :-).
Josef–
I don’t think Rossi ought to file his case until Monday. That will give the Gregoirians yet another weekend to spin themselves deeper into their own poophole. Plus Monday will still give Legislators a whole day to review the case before certifying…or not.
And remember, Rossi will have ample time…until January 20th, to amend his initial filing as more specific examples of wrongful acts are dredged from the bowels of King County Elections and elsewhere.
Josef–Did you see my suggestion about County Prosecutors offering Amnesty to voters who cheated in this election if they come forward immediately? Who could argue with that?
Sam Reed’s done no flip-flopping. When Republicans put forth “damning” new evidence, he says “Sure, if that turns out to be true, they might have a case”. But what happens every time? Turns out to be incorrect assumptions, shoddy evidence, or even evidence of Rossi-favoring fraud.
So Reed’s just making a point that’s too complicated for Rossi supporters to understand – “Yes, if you are correct, there might be a case. But I am not ‘taking your word for it’ and reserve the right to have better informed people investigate this new information.”
Yes, Rossi should delay filing until Monday so he he can fight Governor Gregoire instead of Governor-elect Gregoire.
Also the weekend gives Rossi supporters more time to find dead Republicans voting, “incentivize” more GOP witnesses to suddenly remember ballot counting errors occuring or maybe even to bring forth more affidavits of votes already counted. I look forward to a whole ream of new, shoddy evidence.
An interesting situation if the contest lawsuit is filed against the State of Washington, it will then be the state AG – Rob McKenna – who defends the the certified winner.
State law says that when an election results in a tie, the winner will be picked by lots. I’m a little surprised that Republicans haven’t argued that because this election was a statistical tie (within the margin of error) Gregoire and Rossi should just draw lots.
Of course, they already aced themselves out of that argument — they chose to loudly mock anyone who called the election a “tie” when Rossi appeared to be ahead. You reap what you sow.
Just a random check showed Rodney Tom (R) beat Debi Golden (D) in the 48th district (all within King County) by less than 2000 votes — shouldn’t this result be contested if the Governor’s race is?
I don’t think there has ever been a statewide election that was within the so-called “margin of error”. And remember that absentee ballots, provisional voting, and modern technologies have substantially increased the “margin of error”. Back when nearly everyone voted at the polling place on election day, used paper ballots (count by hand type) and marked them more correctly, and the election workers opened the ballot box after 8:00 p.m. at the polling place, counted all the ballots, and reconciled them with the number of people signing to vote — I doubt there was much, if any, “margin of error”.
We have had a couple of really close elections for seats in the legislature — and I am talking about 20 votes or less, and not a couple of hundred. However, no one has ever taken any of these to court.
I can’t imagine how the precinct books, absentee envelopes, and provisional envelopes can be double and triple checked, and if there are still 1000 to 1500 more ballots than voters (even after taking DV victims and new military registrations into account) in King County — how this result can possibly be upheld.
As far as provisional ballots being run through the counting machine, instead of being verified — it may be impossible to show how many of these were, or whether they were valid. These may very well manifest themselves in unexplained polling ballots or provisional ballots — i.e. ballots in excess of the actual number of voters.
Unless the excess polling ballots and provisional ballots are explained by empty provisional envelopes that were validated, it must be presumed that the vote was illegal. No evidence that it was cast by a valid registered voter.
The language “it appears that an amount of illegal votes has been given to the person whose right is being contested” is very significant. The legislature chose “unless it appears”, instead of “unless it is proven”. A court must give meaning to the obvious choice of difference in wording.
The concept “appearance of fairness” as applied to judicial proceedings may be very important here. If a judge talks to one of the lawyers privately about a pending case, this results in a lack of “appearance of fairness”. The judge should self-recuse in such cases. If not, the other party need only show that such private conversation resulted in “appearance of unfairness”, which is a much easier burden that proving actual unfairness.
I think, unless it can be proven more likely than not that a given illegal vote was cast for Rossi (and there are a few documented instances of that), a court must presume an appearance that the illegal vote could have been cast for Gregoire.
You talk about maybe 90% of provisional ballots being validated in King County. I have heard numbers ranging from 83% to 94%. No matter. Just because lawfully submitted provisional ballots had a certain approval rate — this does not mean the same for unlawfully submitted provisional ballots. Most likely, there will simply be an unexplained excess of poll or provisional ballots in a given precinct. To the extent that these voters turned in their envelopes (and these weren’t torn up by election workers), at best the number of illegal votes may be reduced by the number of empty provisional envelopes that were submitted by valid voters.
If we had to extrapolate illegal votes based on the precinct in which they were cast, this will probably hurt Gregoire. Some of the precincts with the highest number of unexplained ballots are in 70% to 90% Gregoire precincts. And former felons tend to live disproportionately in these neighborhoods as well. Just because Rossi got a little over half of the Pierce County vote — does not mean that precincts with illegal felon voters followed the same percentages.
In the final analysis, I think that illegal votes in a number more than the victory margin, have to nullify an election. But we have a judicial system whose job it is to interpret statutes and the constitution, and we will just have to see how this comes out.
Rossi to Contest Election
Big Surprise. Rossi will contest the election. My prediction will be that he will act like he doesn’t like lawsuits even though he will launch a series of new ones.
He will say in essence: “Gosh darn…you could have just conceded…I wrote a special letter to you and you didn’t write back…and finally the clincher….this is going to hurt me more than it hurts you.”
There will be a moment of shocking revelations “Did you know some dead people voted? I have never heard of such a thing until last week.”
Here’s the legal question of the day: Will McKenna really be defending he state against the contest? McKenna’s no Reed.
Just on KVI: SecState Reed knew in 2003 there were grounds for an election contest of current Ukraine County Elections Procedures.
Stay tuned. Coalition forces are closing in on the evil axis. When we get our revote, be forewarned Justice Talmadge: We will sprint and slide thru the snow to your door, God Willing. Somebody’s gotta save the party from Gregovych and sudden Recallifornia-esque death at the hands of the Vaninator…
And of course holding a new election is a great use of taxpayer money. When did the R party want the governement to waste so much money (defending a frivolous lawsuit AND running an unnecessary election).
I thought they believe government waste of money is a bad thing.
Comment by jim— 1/7/05 @ 3:27 pm
Waste ONLY to you, mon.
Bendover jcricket and all your comrades–
Comment by Mr. Cynical— 1/7/05 @ 3:29 pm
PLEASE. I know the countdown is getting on all of us, BUT!!
WAR HAS BEEN DECLARED!
ROSSI WILL CONTEST!
WAR! WAR! WAR!
ROSSIFARIAN PLACE-KICKER (ATTORNEY): “ERRORS AND MISTAKES BY COUNTY ELECTION OFFICIALS HAVE COUNTED ILLEGAL AND INVALID VOTES” – “TOTAL NUMBER IN THE THOUSANDS”
As I blush with joy, I think Goldy should check into the N. Carolina case – Senator Gorton raised that point.
“The rules at the end of the count” stay the same – Rossi’s condition for a revote.
Josef–
Now calm down (now I’m trying to counsel you!).
Listen very carefully to the attorney but remember, there is much more to come. Today certainly wasn’t the day to prove your case. You still need patience. There is plenty of data and much more to come. The public will clearly hear what is being alleged today. The Dems will “spin” it as “mere allegations”. Well DUHHHH!
The R’s will still have to prove all these specific allegations. Do you think it would do them any good to make wild exaggerations that have no basis in fact? The jcrickets will certainly try. By doing so, the jcrickets merely take one further giant step into the pit of poop they currently stand in.
Rossi could easily show there were thousands of illegitimate votes cast (unless Logan and others can explain them away). And that’s exactly what will be done. Then it’s up to the Court and their interpretation of the law. Any bets that more discouraging stuff will come out on Monday?
The Dems are really stuck right now. If they start screaming, “well Republicans cheated too”, then it’s a matter of who cheated when and who cheated the most. That’s a mess none of us want.
If Gregoire called for a re-vote before Tuesday, she may have a chance. If she let’s this play out in COurt and all the ugliness plays out…she has no chance. And the Dem Legislators who certify her election despite this “black cloud” that live in districts Rossi won will be in very serious jeopardy next election. The Gregoire Standard of a fair election (as she called it) will be an albatrss around everyone’s neck.
Rossifarian attorney AND Rossi BOTH deny ANY concert of fraud (my phrase)
Well, you all: The declaration of war has been read. Coalition forces will fight in Chelan County (why not Skagit, I dunno).
Besides, over there, they’ll say, “Yessa, Governora Rossifaria! Yessa, Governora Rossifaria! Yessa, Governora Rossifaria!”
(Set to “Yessa, Mast’r”)
That scares me, but it doesn’t really matter because we’ll get a revote w/ one ballot for one voter in the end.
Well. Should be an interesting few months while this plays out.
Its good news for Blogs and Talk Radio thats for sure.
Lets see if Dino can come up with something.
However, it looks like there is going to be quite a contest about 1) who will conduct the contest, the court or the legislature and where the contest will be held. Dino wanted to litigate in Benton County but settled for Chelan.
Cynical et al… fortunately, a court of law has a much higher burden of proof than the court of public opinion.
Well, you can go to http://seattletimes.nwsource.c.....si07m.html for the latest
Anyone here reading this should checkout http://www.wsrp.org and/or http://www.revotewa.com and get some facts over this mess, instead of a non-fact based, one-sided opinion here in this forumn by Goldy and friends. I know one thing, if the situation were reversed, you people would be flailing your arms and screaming just like we Rossi supporters are now. What’s fair is fair-what isn’t isn’t. Whoever you voted for, no one can be sure at this point. There’s far too many questions raised and discrepencies found to date. Former Governor Evans’ has it right on the money. To see what he has to say go to the above sites. Thanks for your time.
Amen Mark
And Amen Goldy—but remember Goldy, Rossi does not have to prove FRAUD or some vast conspiracy…I’ve said that repeatedly. We will see plenty of wrongful acts, SOME OF WHICH WILL LIKELY RISE TO THE LEVEL OF FRAUD as well as gross incompetence, especially in King Co., that most folks will find appalling.
Yeah, Mark, I ‘ll do that. I will go to the state republican party’s website to a non-one-sided opinion.
Sheesh.
I look forward to the Republicans using the “bury them with factoids” strategy in court. We’ll see how well it holds up. My guess is they’ll find themselves unable to meet the burden of proof that’s very clear in the RCWs (hint: it’s not as low as Cynical would have you believe). Remember, just because the BIAW and surrogates say they have evidence, doesn’t mean that evidence will even be allowed in court. The courts have standards, unlike right-wing blogs and talk-radio.
Cynical… but again my purely legalistic point is, evidence of fraud or errors, even in excess of the 129 vote margin, is not enough to set aside this election. They must prove at least the appearance that these votes gave enough of an advantage to Gregoire that it changed the outcome of the election.
So far there has been no evidence that any of these irregularities were distributed nonrandomly. And Jim Miller’s “distributed vote fraud” theory is just not going to cut it in a court of law.
I don’t believe the R’s are even going to attempt to meet the statutory standards… they’re hoping on some common law ruling that the entirely election was unreliable. Big gamble.
Mark – You just can’t handle it, can you? You can’t handle being given a little of your own medicine so you desperately want Democrats to suddenly side with you when the tables are turned. No way. Not going to happen. You don’t deserve it.
Republicans have so far offered red herrings, bogus/innacurate discrepancies, already counted ballots, wild distortions about military ballots, dead Republicans and many unsupported allegations. So far I see no reason to believe anything they say about this election. We’ll take the word of the SOS, 39 auditors and the media over Chris Vance, Stefan (“let’s compare the election to the tsunami”) and Jim “Democrats are cheaters” Miller.
Republicans have been unable to present any evidence when required to do so in court, preferring instead to use press conferences and sympathetic audiences to present their psuedo-evidence. Every investigation into their so-called allegations blows huge holes into their theories, but you never hear a Republican admit they jumped the gun.
Now tell me why we should support the Republicans in a re-vote effort? Don’t give us this BS about how a re-vote is neutral and non-partisan. That’s complete BS.
Welcome to the reality-based community, where standards of evidence have to be met and the burden of proof is higher than “I said so”.
If the same legal principles are used in Washington, that were used in North Carolina recently, the election result must be nullified if at least 129 documented errors in counting or rejecting a ballot are proven.
The Democrat incumbent Agriculture Commissioner in North Carolina (Steve Troxler) was apparently defeated by the Republican challenger (Britt Cobb) by 2,287 votes: 1,666,197 to 1,663,910
Unfortunately, Carteret County managed to accidentally erase 4,438 early absentee votes from an electronic voting machine. The names of the 4,438 voters casting these erased votes happened to be identifiable with certainty.
While the 4,438 erased votes was greater than Cobb’s apparent victory margin, the statistical chances of this erasure changing the results of the election were virtually nil. Cobb carried the remaining votes out of Carteret County by almost 60%-40%: 14,341 to 9,611. So it was virtually certain that the vote erasure reduced Cobb’s victory margin by several hundred votes.
Nevertheless, since it was theoretically possible for the 4,438 erased votes to have changed the election outcome (had 80% or so been cast for the Democrat, in gross deviation from the heavy GOP voting pattern in Carteret County, the election results were nullified, and a new election was ordered.
The North Carolina GOP, of course, fought against this outcome, as the Washington Democrats will do in our own state contest. Their arguments that the missing voters were almost certainly in favor of Cobb were rejected. So was their proposal to allow only the 4,438 erased ballot voters to revote (as these 4,438 voters could be identified with certainty).
Instead, the North Carolina courts ruled that the entire general election for Agriculture Commissioner had to be nullified, and ordered it to be rerun throughout the entire state between Cobb and Troxler.
Comment by jcricket— 1/7/05 @ 5:59 pm
Let’s refer to the t-nami as the t-word. Okay? This helps websearchers find REAL spots to help provide relief.
Whoops — the Democrat incumbent was Britt Cobb, and the Republican challenger was Steve Troxler. Their names are reversed through my last posting. However, I did get the fact that the GOP candidate carried Carteret County by a 60%-40% margin in the votes that were erased. And would have carried North Carolina by several hundred more votes, if the erased votes were in the same proportion to those which were not erased in Carteret County.
Tell me again why Republicans in Senate (federal) refused to co-sponsor a bill mandating paper trails for electronic voting machines?
Oh, that’s right, because Republicans figured they could rig the machines to only erase votes in Democratic areas.
Oopsies.
Hey Goldy, you’re a big believer in the Seattle PI right? Todays bold, top of the front page headline: “DEAD VOTED IN GOVERNOR’S RACE.” You said if anyone could prove that a dead person voted in this years election you would run naked through the Governor’s inaugeral ball. Well there you have it! Apparently one guy filled out his vote then died, and by golly, his wife sent it in. I’ll be there with my video camera to make the documentary.
paul daniel
The North Carolina election law is worded differently, and basically mandates a new election due to improperly cast or deleted votes, unless the recipient of such votes can be determined with certainty:
http://www.ncleg.net/Statutes/.....82.13.html
Comment by jcricket— 1/7/05 @ 6:21 pm
I think that a paper trail should be required with any kind of voting machine, whether electronic (computer) or mechanical (lever). This bit about who supported or sponsored what in Congress is probably political motivated amendments that didn’t stand any chance of passing anyway.
And think about all the states with mechanical lever machines, which are incapable of producing a paper trail in the first place. All of New York and Connecticut, most of Louisiana, large parts of Pennsylvania and Virginia.
Yeah, nice try. According to state law, your vote occurs at the time you fill out your ballot.
So I’m supposed to believe that introducing new technology that doesn’t answer existing problems and introduces new ones is acceptable? Fine, lever machines have problems, punch card machines have problems. There’s no reason that any new technology shouldn’t eliminate those problems and then some. There’s no reason to “rush” the electronic voting machines to market before the issues have been understood.
Comment by jcricket— 1/7/05 @ 7:42 pm
Looks like the optical scan ballots are a definite downward trend in technology. Over 55,000 of the 899,199 ballots counted in King County had to be “enhanced” to be properly read by the optical scanners (at least that is what we are told). This is an error rate of a little bit over 6%.
Punch card ballots, by contrast, have an error rate of only about 0.1% in the form of improperly punched chads. So maybe we should either move forward to computer machines (with a paper trail, of course) or move backward to the more reliable punch card system.
Federal law is supposed to outlaw punch cards in a few years. So that provision should be eliminated, and a paper trail provision added for computer machines.
Your off-the-cuff analysis is funny, but every reputable, detailed study conducted concludes that punch card ballots have far higher error rates due to not only the chad problems, but failing to record votes at all (unintentional under-votes).
http://electionlawblog.org/archives/000168.html
It’s like money – you release new “bills” with no known counterfeiting flaws that correct everything you can. And you try to retire the old money as fast as you can.
There’s no reason there shouldn’t be a federal set of standards mandating open-source electronic voting system with independent audit capability. Voting is too important to Democracy to be decided solely by private companies with profit as their main motive. This is one clear case where regulation is the answer. If private companies can make money and build machines that actually enable transparent Democracy, fine. But if they can’t – the government should provide the machines as part of the cost of running this country.
Spin doesn’t work with me folks! Ima educated citizen and do my own research, and so far I’ve discovered that both the Repubs and Demos spin, even in their graves.
We could have punch cards in a vote by mail system, with a duplicate copy for the voter, and a random number like Ruth Bennett said! She had some good ideas for election reform! As to Federal law regarding punch cards, the Feds can eat my shorts!