From Silicon Valley Insider (click image for link)
There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance. It’s a $500 subsidized item. They may make a lot of money. But if you actually take a look at the 1.3 billion phones that get sold, I’d prefer to have our software in 60% or 70% or 80% of them, than I would to have 2% or 3%, which is what Apple might get.
— Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer, 4/29/07
Not wanting to pile on or anything, but, well, you know.
Why would anyone squander $499 on an iPad when you can buy Apple’s stock for $192 a share?
@1
The question is Apple’s stock overpriced at its current value? Which isn’t to say they haven’t done well, but I think you are going to pay too much for a good performer.
On the other hand now might be a great time to pick up some Toyota stock.
Balmer is a fool. I’d rather have a smaller market that buys their software, their computers, their phones, their music, their moives, and soon to come, their ebooks from me!
Apple has a 100% monopoly on the iMarket.
Gee, and they’re also piling on here:
http://blog.seattlepi.com/micr.....193414.asp
with comments like:
“A relative who works there says it’s become the U.S. Post Office – it’s huge, and people ‘retire in place.'”
Just the image that comes to mind when “lifers” like Daddy Love and Don Joe post on HA DURING work hours while their customers get burned:
Microsoft Issues Emergency Fix for IE Flaw
http://www.krebsonsecurity.com.....r-ie-flaw/
APPL will hit $300 by the end of the year. Should have bought at $14 when I told my pals that the return of Steve was a good thing and Micheal Dell thought that Apple’s assests should be sold and the money returned to the stockholders. Today Apple could buy Dell with some of their cash on hand, but they don’t buy junk.
It’s such a shame that Microsoft made only $6.6 billion in profit on $19 billion revenue last quarter. Oooh, iPhone, scary–they ahve 20% more market share than Windows Mobiel in advance of WM 7. Scary.
hacked PC
I do more before breakfast than you do in a week.
@7 I do more before breakfast than you do in a week
Yea, and that was on HA!
It’s such a shame that Microsoft made only $6.6 billion in profit on $19 billion revenue last quarter
And you’d think with all that cash your employer would pay its fair share of taxes to the state, a point Goldy has harped on. For all your bluster on HA for social and economic justice, Daddy, you’re sure silent on this issue. What a wuss.
This post is distorting Ballmer’s quote because you’re putting up a graph that represents US SMARTPHONE users, when Ballmer was referring to Apple’s share of the GENERAL mobile handset market (not just smartphones). So yes, as a percentage of the GENERAL cell market, Apple only has a 1.5% share.
Not wanting to pile on, but I read about THIS in the Seattle Times, NOT on Horses Ass:
http://seattletimes.nwsource.c.....ign05.html
@6..the bottom line is that Apple’s stuff always seems to work…and well, PC stuff is always having problems.
You may have to shell out some extra money for Apple gear, but its worth it.
Kinda strange that tech heads always seem to buy apple stuff..
Apple = BMW
PC = Hyundai
@9
Which shows that Ballmer knows nothing of what he’s talking about. Apple does not compete at the bottom of any market like crackheads scrambling over a rock dropped in the gutter.
Fail Microsoft fail!
Fail Boeing fail!
People in the Northwest have a curious passion for failure.
@6 It’s such a shame that Microsoft made only $6.6 billion in profit on $19 billion revenue last quarter
Sure, and the Titanic couldn’t sink. You’re absolutely out-to-lunch, Daddy. Obviously, you either didn’t read or understand the article:
Microsoft’s huge profits — $6.7 billion for the past quarter — come almost entirely from Windows and Office programs first developed decades ago. Like G.M. with its trucks and S.U.V.’s, Microsoft can’t count on these venerable products to sustain it forever. Perhaps worst of all, Microsoft is no longer considered the cool or cutting-edge place to work. There has been a steady exit of its best and brightest.
Right. Who will ever forget Vista?
Daddy will be sticking around because he has nowhere else to go, that’s certain.
@Troll- here’s another snip from that interview- “But if you actually take a look at the 1.3 billion phones that get sold, I’d prefer to have our software in 60% or 70% or 80% of them, than I would to have 2% or 3%, which is what Apple might get.” So, WinMobile is in between 60-80% of all phones now, outnumbering iPhone by a factor of 20-40x? Hmmm??
And as he was tossing around the rather inflated Zune sales numbers of 20-25% for the “high-end” music player market one might conclude from his remarks he was referring to the smart phone section of the market. In any case, the iPhone does have ‘significant’ market share in spite of his “no chance” prediction.
How long before Apple overtakes M$ in marketcap? 1 year or 2?
http://www.wolframalpha.com/in.....market+cap
@6,
RIght, WM 7 is right around the corner:
“It was initially intended to be released during 2009, but several delays caused Microsoft to release 6.5 instead as a placeholder. In December, 2009, Microsoft announced that Windows Mobile 7 had suffered further delays, and would not be released until the end of 2010.”
At this rate, iPhone OS 4 is gonna be out before WM 7. And yeah, the fact that Apple has gone from *zero* to 20% more in two years must be pretty scary for Microsoft.
@3 Considering I paid $27.80 for my Microsoft stock 4 1/2 years ago, and it’s worth $27.84 today, Balmer doesn’t impress me.
@2 “The question is Apple’s stock overpriced at its current value?”
That’s a fair question, and a good question. This guy argues Apple is cheap: http://tinyurl.com/y9e8fus
Now I can’t vouch for him, so you’ll have to do what I did: Read what he says, then decide whether it makes logical sense.
He starts with an earnings estimate of $12 a share, applies a P/E multiple of 20 (not drastic for a profitable growth company in the tech sector), and adds $43 a share of cash and liquid securities to get a “fair” value of $283 a share.
This is a future value, not present value, though because AAPL probably won’t earn $12 this year. ValueLine projects earnings of $8.25 a share for 2010 (but rising to $16.00 by 2012 – 2014). If $8.25 proves correct, then at $192 the stock has a P/E multiple of 23.3. Personally, I don’t think that’s wacky for a company that’s doubling its EPS (earnings per share) every two years. (Of course, past performance is no guarantee of future performance; in fact, it’s unlikely Apple can keep that up much longer, if at all.)
A few other things: Apple has no debt, no pension obligations, no preferred stock; which means every penny of the assets it owns and every dime of earnings belongs to shareholders.
Is this stock a steal? No, it was a steal in 2003, when you could have bought it for under $7. The question is whether it’s an investment, or in my case, a speculative play. That’s always relative. With banks paying 1/2 of 1% a year on savings (less than inflation), it might be a better place to put your money than a bank. I wouldn’t look for a double in 24 months, but if the price goes lower and you pick it off near the bottom, it could return a whole lot better than 10% a year (total return).
I haven’t made a decision yet, but I could buy 100 shares if I want to.
Another thing to keep in mind is the company and stock should be fine even if the iPad is a bust.
http://www.businessweek.com/te.....s_aol_news
Let’s get real, until I get such a phone this graph is meaningless
Ballmer is a loudmouth idiot. He starts each day watching that video where he goes “Give it up for me!”.
Microsoft was never about actually making products for people. It has always been about finding something to sell, trying to get monopoly position and then exploiting that position for maximized profit. They are a business. But they don’t really care about the customers who use their products.
New Revised Text, Authorized by Pope Stephen at the Great Conclave of 2020.
Credo in unum Vexillum, Patrem omnipoténtem, factórem cæli et terræ, visibílium ómnium et invisibílium;
Et in unum Dóminum Stefanum Christum, Fílium Dei unigénitum, et ex Patre natum ante ómnia sæcula: Deum de Deo, lumen de lúmine, Deum verum de Deo vero, génitum non factum, consubstantiálem Patri, per quem ómnia facta sunt; qui propter nos hómines et propter nostram salútem descéndit de cælis; et incarnátus est de Sanctus Fructus ex vestal virgo et homo factus est; passus et sepúltus est; et resurréxit tértia die secúndum Scriptúras; et ascéndit in cælum, sedet ad supremus Abbas; et íterum ventúrus est cum glória iudicáre vivos et mórtuos; cuius regni non erit finis;
Et in Spíritum Sanctum, Dóminum et vivificántem: qui ex Patre Filióque procédit; qui cum Patre et Fílio simul adorátur et conglorificátur; qui locútus est per Prophétas;
Et unam sanctam cathólicam et apostólicam Ecclésiam.
Confíteor unum baptísma in remissiónem peccatorum; et expecto resurrectionem mortuorum et vitam ventúri sæculi. Amen.
#22 I’m sorry God, you’ve been great, except for murdering children, and millions of innocents to get a few bad people, and your ‘intelligent’ designs are pretty crap actually…so we’re gonna to have to let you go. You’re just not working out anymore. You’re just becoming silly and more and more unbelievable. I’m SURE you’ll do well! There are many other planets in our galaxy where people NEED something to explain lightening and sunsets, so I think you’ll do fine. I wish you well.
#18 Without over analyzing the stock, I think Apple is near it’s peak. Apple is a slightly different ‘tech’ company than Microsoft, Oracle or such. Apple is basically an end consumer appliance company. They sell stuff because it’s pretty and trendy. But everything, from Converse to Members Only jackets and Bose stereo’s have their peaks. Apple is the “must have” cool thing to show off to your friends right NOW. But every hot trend eventually produces a backlash from the folks tired of it. I know more and more folks who are SICK of watching a table of folks in a bar do nothing but talk about their latest iPhone app…those people are being annoying and a joke, like the yuppies of the 80s talking about their (hip product).
I think Apple will increase for another year, maybe two, before the backlash on it’s “hotness” begins.
Goldy, we all know you love you some Apple….and it is your website, but geez you’ve gotten heavy with the Apple love recently. Are we really running low on stupid politicans and insane old media to comment on?
Don’t get me wrong, I think Apple makes VERY pretty products. The iPad is amazingly pretty. Don’t need one, but we don’t NEED 90% of the crap we buy. That’s what a “consumer” culture is…we just buy crap we LIKE. The iPad is to produce a 3rd tier. It’s not a phone, so you still have to buy an iPhone. It’s too big to stick in your pocket as an MP3 player, still need that. It’s not a full computer, doesn’t have a web cam, can’t play Flash video (no Hulu, xTube, etc), and you can’t install programs like PhotoShop, Final Cut and whatnot, so you still need your laptop or desktop machine. This is just ANOTHER machine in between all of those. You don’t NEED it, but it’s SO SO PRETTY! MUST BUY PRETTY SHINY THING! SOOOOO SHINY!
24:
Goldy can be such an iDork sometimes….. :)
Call me a Luddite, but I’ll stick with my plain old Vista desktop and my pretty basic krauT-Mobile Motorola handset. The iPad is nothing but another netbook, and those will be obsolete within another year or two as smartphones get smarter and smarter and laptops get cheaper and cheaper. A recent BBC article I listened to said that some companies are already getting out of the netbook biz.
Marketing hell, do YOU know the difference between:
1. Laptop
2. Netbook
3. Smartbook
4. Smart phone
5. Tablet
@23 Alki
Do not mistake Me for the fantasies your fellows have about Me.
Do not trust Me, but do your best to understand Me. I am as easy to read as the night sky.
@2 If the real God had wanted me to read that gibberish, He would have sent me to Latin-speaking parents.
@22 not @2
Amazing Goldy is rooting for the demise of MSFT & Boeing, 2 of the largest employers in WA state. Is the Apple kool-aid that strong?
Just wondering why everyone waited to build an iPhone killer. Why are companies trying to outdo Apple, when RIM has the market? Where is the RIM killer.
Maybe companies need to stop worrying about following Apple, and start leading.
Are there more robust smartphones out there, sure… but obviously people don’t care about them enough to push those phones ahead. Have you seen the sales of the Nexus???
Is there anything out there like the iPad??? maybe some PC tablets… but why didn’t Dell,HP,etc. go after content like Apple has??? Music, movies, tv, and now books and magazines.
HP can make a killer tablet, but if the only content is working on Excel with my finger… so what!
Its not just about hardware, and its just not about software. When will the other companies realize this?
Lepus (Rabbit)
Operor non vindicatum quicumque est Romanorum est illic futurus ut agnosco. Est an a column suus calx?
Why dig in the rubble?
Crusader equates well earned criticism with “rooting for the demise…”. Typical lazy conservative thinking.
God, cut the Latin and come back to bed.
Not totally true. Ballmer has some executive VP fools working for him.
Why does Goldy hate high-paying jobs in Seattle area? Does Goldy hate Seattle? Does Goldy like cutting off his nose to spite his face? Suggestion to Goldy – move to Cupertino you rat face.