A couple folks have asked me recently if I’ve heard anything about Rep. Dave Reichert stepping down. A couple other folks have asked me if I’ve heard anything about Reichert challenging Sen. Maria Cantwell in 2012. Unless Reichert’s head injury is giving him more trouble than he admits, the latter seems more likely, but it has me thinking that perhaps the two rumors might be conflated.
What does seem clear is that WA-08 will very likely become a bit bluer in 2012, losing a chunk of its Republican-leaning southern part of the district, as WA-10 inevitably squeezes its northern neighbors from the south. So it might not be a bad time for Reichert to make an honorable exit.
Given where the population growth has occurred, Reichert may find himself living in the 9th.
I’m sure Reichert will do whatever his handlers tell him to.
For someone who doesn’t like to campaign, looks ill-at-ease on camera, and can’t articulate anything other than simple talking points (and ex-sheriff stuff), he would a pushover for Sen. Cantwell.
I’ve heard speculation that Reichert’s home will probably wind up in the 9th and rumors that he has told party friends that he wouldn’t move to run in a re-configuared 8th district.
Reichert wouldn’t have to move to run in a re-configured 8th District. Under the US Constitution, a candidate for Congress only has to be a resident of the state in which he is seeking office. No district residency requirement is imposed, although it’s certainly traditional for candidates to live in their district.
I recall a candidate for Congress some years ago who was a state senator. His legislative district overlapped the congressional district, but he happened to live in the part not in the CD. The issue of his residency never came up in the campaign.
Though it’s not writ in stone, I suspect the Redistricting Commission will do everything they can to place no more than one current Representative in any of the new CDs. And they’ll renumber them to assure that each of the nine is in a district with its current number.
Thus, no incumbent will have to compete with another incumbent, and the new WA-10 will not have an incumbent.
Which could mean that what everyone expects to be the new Olympia-centered district could turn out to extend as far north as Auburn and be called WA-08. Reichert would still be a purple district, but he’d be on its northern edge rather than its southern. WA-10, then, would be much like today’s WA-08 minus Pierce. It would have to add some population, perhaps more of Redmond and up around Lake Washington, but it would likely be a nearly-blue district.
That way, we’d have two red districts (WA-04 and -05), two purples (WA-03 and -08), and six blue (WA-01, -02, -06, -07, -09, and -10). Republicans could take heart that they’d have incumbents in place in the purples and that at least a couple of the blues could be reversed if the national mood is in their favor (WA-02) or if the forever-incumbent retires (WA-06).
Regardless of the redistricting, it’s going to be interesting to watch Reichert over the next two years.
In his freshman term of office, he got appointed to some important committees related to this sheriff’s background, but not much came of it. He got one wilderness area protected, earning some kudos from the environmental groups, but in doing so he took the steam out of efforts to protect much larger areas. At the end he was whining and pleading with fellow Republicans that he needed an important spot on some appropriations committees to protect his chances of re-election.
Then for his next two terms he doesn’t do anything except prove to be a reliable vote for his Republican handlers, using proceedural votes to try to scuttle environmental legislation, but voting for it only when it was clear it was going to either pass or fail without his vote. Then he admits publically that he was doing that. When criticized for not doing more in Congress, he simply shrugs and whines that his party wasn’t in power, so what could he do?
Now he’s about to start his fourth term as a U.S. Representative, with Republicans in charge of the House. While he’s certainly not yet a “senior” House Republican, he’s going to have considerable seniority over all the newcomers. How’s he going to deal with the Tea Party activists? Is he going to show leadership in taking freshment representatives by the hand and showing them the ropes? Is he going to display newfound purpose and work hard to get taxpayer money returned to his district, and real environmental protections?
Or is he going to simply sit out another two years in office, voting as his handlers tell him to vote, and then retiring to take advantage of a “double-dip” retirement (sheriff’s pension + Congressional pension) back home?
@6, N: Thank you for your analysis.
Re WA-06: I suspect a retirement decision may be about the prospects for being more than the ranking member on Appropriations.
I think they’re dim — particularly with redistricting elsewhere. So I’d say retirement is more likely than not.
I live here (obviously focused on politics) and there isn’t any obvious D candidate to me — except for wingnuts like Sheldon (I’m betting he’d rather not go to DC). There isn’t an obvious R either (Cloud, but he’s been beat 3 times by 40+ points).
Any idea about a D replacement for the Dickster?
Zotz, I used to think highly of Derek Kilmer — knew him and Jen when they lived in the 36th — but he’s gone all Roadkill Caucus in the last year or two. Otherwise, I don’t have a clue about candidates in that neck of the woods.
i love daffy dave’s hair. i wanna take it out for a chocolate malt and a game of frisbee golf, and then sit under a shady tree and stare at it while i smoke a mellow phatty.
So DelBene can become a rep after all?