Snohomish County just reported the results of their hand recount: Gregoire +119, Rossi +75
Combine Gregoire’s 44 vote pickup with the unofficial 17 vote pickup from Pierce County (with about 75 ballots left to canvass), and Rossi’s lead is down to 57 votes. Unless Rossi benefits from a surprise in Spokane County, King could easily put Gregoire over the top, with or without the 573.
UPDATE:
Couldn’t help but poke a little fun at the befuddled numerologists over at (un)Sound Politics, desperate to prove their spreadsheets more accurate than the actual election:
It’s fair to assume that any newly discovered ballots would be distributed to the two candidates based on their share of the previous vote counts. In this case, 194 new two-party votes were added in Shohomish, of which 75 went to Rossi, 24 fewer than would have been expected based on his share of the machine recount in that county. The probability of such a large deviation is only 0.03%. This is not an outcome that can reasonably be attributed to chance. Another explanation is required and it would be interesting to hear what it might be.
Yeah… how come I didn’t see Stefan pondering the discrepancy when new votes in Whatcom and Skagit went disproportionately for Rossi?
Gtegoire got 48.9% of the votes in Snohomish, and 61.3% of these extra 194 ballots. That is a surprise…
Oops, Gregoire…
Just goes to show that statistical prognostication with this slim of a margin isn’t going to definitively offer any conclusions. Rossi could very well benefit from a surprise in Spokane, or even King. Or both recounts could add to Gregoire. It’s hard to say because it’s pretty clear that the newly added votes aren’t purely randomly distributed (at least not within each county).
Sure looks like fraud and corruption in Snohomish County,
which from now on should probably be referred to as Siberia.
I’m assuming b crosser was being sarcastic. I’d hate for this blog to turn into (un)Sound Politics with their oh-so-clever Ukraine references.
Just to be clear, I’m not saying that the distribution of newly added votes being non-random is a sign of malfeasance, foul play or cheating. Just that there are a different factors at play in every county (type of ballots, % of absentee, age of average resident, party affiliation, socio-economic county makeup) that effect whose ballots are likely to be read by the machines the first time.
What’s the schedule for Pierce and Spokane reporting their results? I’m guessing that regardless of the results it will be all eyes on King County (scrutiny is a good thing).
If I were a betting man I’d say that Gregoire will end up with a very slight margin in her favor after the King County vote.
Just to be clear, Gregoire has received 44% of the total recount, and 46% of the new votes. Rossi has received 53% and 51% respectively. So statewide, the disparity between a proportionate distribution and the actual distribution is relatively small.
I think Spokane and Pierce are expected tomorrow and then King sometime next week.
I think for the sake of geographic awareness, Sharkansky is going to want to call Snohomish “Kazakhstan.”
What is up with him and comparisons to Russian situations? Is his last name an ethnic name from the area?
I have to say, I have been loving lurking and watching the SP blog get filled with rabies foam. This is good fun to see the Righties turning to weirder and weirder comparisons in a doomed effort to make some kind of point.
No one in the regular media and no observer (partisan or otherwise) is claiming anything fraudulent about any of the hand recount votes already counted. But I’m sure the freepers (and un-sounders) will see that as more evidence of the so-called liberal media bias.
As previously posted- Gregoire by 69 or 96. Sylvia Brown can’t see, too much fog on this one.
I don’t know why people are surprised by recount results that apper to be anomalies. If anomaly results weren’t expected you would have no need for a recount. There is no sinister or ulterior motive here; there are just some counties that really care about trying to get to the truth.
In my opinion, the counties that show virtually no change or a tiny change consistent with the past counts are the ones that simply didn’t care about being diligent and looking to get it right. They’re the ones that should bear the heavy criticism. The counties that have large numbers of changes should get all the applause. They clearly care.
Bothe the Ukraine and King County have something- something very big in common —– screwing voters out of their votes.
Thre R”s don’t have a clue in theri lame blah, blah, – think about it.
Salist plot takes away rightful votes. Gross incompetnce takes away botes in kin County.
Both have corrupted the cout and deprived all the legal voters, citzen patriots. their
The goal in both cass is to accurately count all the ballots, every vote counts…….my father spoke fluent Russian.
So, Goldy, what did I say- misdirection? While Vance is fighting the King 573, Snohomish and Pierce are slicing the Rossi margin.
Discrete and unique events, county to county, that are neither predictable nor trendable- Heisenberg uncertainty…
Even my Magic 8 Ball is refusing to prognosticate now, other than to say that the powers that be are out to confuse us all. They whom the gods would destroy…
With everything topsy turvy and bizarro, my prediction still stands- 24. 42 upside down. Spokane will deliver the state to Gregoire, until King gives it back to Rossi…
And Paul Berendt will then be in court quoting Chris Vance on howq corrupt King County is…
While Goldy, Josef, Bob, and Jim- and everyuone else who can avoid coming to blows- go have a drink or two or three or four…
And the Libertarian putsch installs Ruth Bennett as Governor…
All that makes as much sense as anything else going on…
In a study of absentee ballots cast in San Francisco from 1999 to 2002, they “tend to be” more conservative than their precinct averages. In looking into our crystal balls, let’s ask ourselves who is most likely to vote absentee and then let’s google various phrases!
“how come I didn’t see Stefan pondering the discrepancy when new votes in Whatcom and Skagit went disproportionately for Rossi?”
I think it is reasonable to look at all of the unexpectedly large variations from one count to another. Snohomish is by far the largest deviation in the manual recount so far. Both in absolute terms and in its very low probability. Skagit is also outside the range that would be explained by chance, but is a much smaller number. Whatcom was off by only 3 votes and not a statistical outlier. I would also look at Walla Walla, which had a large anomaly in the machine recount and a small anomaly this time.
I have no reason to allege foulplay in any of these cases, but there may well be consistent human errors at some point in the process that should be understood, explained and corrected.
In a PI article from 2002, the writer describes the “traditional absentee-type voter” as “older, disproportionately over 60; they are very tax sensitive because they are more likely to be retired and living on a fixed income; they tend to be more conservative on other issues, such as crime and personal security issues.” This article was an analysis of the monorail initiative.
And Susan is back- we must be entertaining…
Or Texas is boring…. Probably the latter- I’ve SEEN Texas- hard to stay awake drivin’ across it…
Oh, well- went and bought extended version of ROTK. Want to see how to stop Chris Vance from forging the Ring of Power in Mount St Helens… Or is that Paul Berendt forging the Ring… Or can we throw them BOTH into Mount St Helens…
Talkatchyaall in four hours or so…
Jim–
And while your at it, why don’t you let Larry Phillips and Dean Logan join you for those drinks. Frankly, I think Rossi winning is the best thing that could happen to them!
Boy’s I’m still waiting for that explanation about Mr. Phillips signature. Like I said, if it isn’s scanned onto the SOS voter registration site, I’ll gladly admit my error and drift off into the deep abyss. If it is….then tell me how it got there?????
Ya all are pretty entertaining, and yeah, Texas is boring. But I’m trying to learn stuff about your local politics, so I hang out and listen.
Speaking of low probabilities: the Mariners have signed Adrian Beltre to play third base. I never thought the Mariners would actually pay enough money to land a top-tier free agent. They never have before. But hey — that’s my kind of anomaly.
Cynical – You’re keep moving your BS to a new thread hoping we won’t follow you. You lied, you were called on it, you then tried a weak backpedal (“I never said that”, when your own words cleary refuted you). Go away so the rest of us can enjoy our spirited debate here.
Soos (or is that “ms. poptart) – IIRC, 60% of votes in WA vote permanent absentee, with that % increasing every year. I’m guessing that the absentee voter profile isn’t quite as skewed towards older people anymore. Just speculation. Anyone have hard(er) numbers?
cricket, cricket, cricket–
Twist and minimze…that is the Dem. hacks typical motis, eh?
Just come out and say Phillips name is not scanned on the SOS voter registration site. Whenever I see folks like you attack and not refute, I know that I am right.
Jim King—
I got a deal for you. If Larry Phillips signature is on the SOS voter registration site and they got it from King County, you buy the first drink. If not, I’ll buy.
Please understand Jim, this is nothing personal. I just expected you would be a lot more questioning on things like this and not be so quick to blow them off.
Aren’t you just a teeny-bit curious if Phillips signature is on the SOS voter registration database????? HMMMMMMM? I know darn well you can find out…..and it’s easier than you think. You are smart enough to figure it out to Jim…that’s the sad part.
Dig Jim and report back. If you find there is no Phillips signature….go ahead and gloat. But if it’s there…let’s reason together on what to do next. Because if it’s there…it almost surely came from King County…don’t you think??
Jim–
Aren’t you just a little bit curious if Phillips signature is on the State voter registration site…hmmmm? I know you are smart enough to figure out how to confirm or deny that. If it’s not at the SOS site, I’ll go away forever. But if it is…let’s reason together on what to do next. Because it got there somehow Jim. And Logan said it wasn’t on the King County site. C’mon Jim……..
Mr. Cynical
Perhaps it’s under the scanner in King!
Stefan, I was making a rhetorical observation, not a statistical one. No, you did not allege foul play, but you did raise suspicions over Snohomish, which is something you did not do over Skagit.
It’s never been your math I’ve taken issue with… it’s how you use it.
Not quite Robin—because the normal process is to scan the signatures into the County database and then forward them to the SOS, Perhaps Phillips signature is under the scanner Robin (hardy-har-har) but as it was expalined to me in order to get into the SOS system, it was first scanned into the County system and transmitted. Someone please give me another plausible explanation….rather than attacking the messenger.
Oh and cricket…if you keep rubbing your legs together like that, you’ll go blind!
Mr. Cynical
The normal process is not to drop 22 absentee ballots under the voting machine either. Perhaps they transmitted it successfully to SOS and then screwed up getting it into the County system.
I hear what you are saying Robin but the way it was explained to me is that it was 1st scanned into the County system and then forwarded to the SOS on either a CD or directly (computer to computer). King County probably has the appropriate software to send it directly.
Listen, as soon as one of the naysayers like Bo-Bo Bobby , cricket or Goldy states they have asked the SOS etc. and they have been assured Phillips doesn’t have his signature scanned in, I’ll drop this. But as you can see Robin…they attack the messenger because they either know (partisan hacks & insiders like cricket & Bo-Bo-Bobby are here to muzzle anything they can) or are afraid (Goldy & Jim) to find out. The only person with the balls to try and find out is Josef.
Lawrence Phillips—c’mon Goldy & Jim. Find out if he is on the SOS reg list. If he isn’t, then hush my mouth. If he is, let’s keep probing this sack of shit!
My dream: Rossi and Gregoire both call for a run off — to put an end to all this partisan crap which will otherwise result in a governor considered illgegitmate by so many voters in the state (regardless of how it ends).
I can dream, can’t I?
Cynical —
You keep repeating this point: If Phillips’ signature is on the Secretary of State computer system, which imported that record from the King County system, how could it now be missing from the King County system?
This is like saying: If a file was on a computer at one time, it is impossible to believe it could not be on that computer at a time in the future.
This is a ridiculous, stupid, worthless claim you are pursuing. Obviously, it is possible to (accidentally or otherwise) delete database records from database entries. Sometimes, computer programmers write programs which perform bulk changes, and occassionally those programs are accidentally and quietly trashing data in the background.
Nobody has yet explained how the King County database got screwed up. The thing is, you seem to be trying to claim that the database must not have been screwed up (because at one point in the past it was demonstrably at least not screwed up in this specific way) and so therefore a King County Council member is lying in the newspaper.
You are a tool. But you are an amusing tool. It gives me great heart to see that what we are up against on your side is people with your mental horsepower.
Cynical… you think I get paid to do this shit? I’m happy to let Josef do the research; I may disagree with him politically most of the time, but he’s good at research, and apparently trustworthy.
I’ve said before, I’ve got no idea if the Phillips signature is on file at the SOS… but you claimed to have seen two of them, and compared the L’s, and now you don’t want to talk about that anymore, because it might incriminate somebody at SOS. (Or reveal your original claim as fiction.)
BUT…. (and here’s the biggie) who the fuck cares? For the life of me, I don’t see what your point is. So what if his signature is on file at SOS and not in King…? The only thing that proves is that there was some kind of a screw up in King… and we already knew that!
So enlighten me… where’s the damn scandal? What kind of nefarious misdeed are you trying to imply?
Between discs. Robin, dear- that stuff that comes out the back end of the horsies we all like to read- that’s horse Cynical. You don’t argue with it, you just clean it up, maybe spread it on the garden…
That was “like to ride”, not “read”…
X-
“My side???” I voted for 7 Dems in this election Dude.
I was wondering when the Dem. partisan hacks would begin to spin the response you have crafted. Who is amusing X??? I never said Phillips was lying in the newspaper. The guy who has the biggest problem is Logan.
I’ll bet you know I’m right, don’t you X.
It took awhile for you to craft the predictable spin….it’s a computer problem…no one knows how it disappeared ya-da-ya-da-ya-da.
Are you paying attention here Josef, Jim & Goldy. Here comes the spin.
You know Jim, I really enjoy Country Western and there is a fairly new song out that reminds me of Gregoire and her arrogance:
The refrain goes like this:
“It’s a classic case of a woman scorned..
She’ll make Dino Rossi wish he’d never been born.
She’s a fifty-somethin’ year-old judge and jury,
HELL HATH NO FURY LIKE REVENGE OF A MIDDLE-AGE+ WOMAN!!
GOLDY–
For shame….
Logan says it wasn’t scanned on the King County site
but SOS has it scanned in……
and it comes from the County’s….
HMMMMMMM????
So you just blow it off as SNAFU?????
And you want us to believe the King County process & results???????
That’s the point Goldy…if the scanned Phillips signature isn’t there…combined with all the other “mistakes”…..when is enough, enough Goldy???
Don’t you even think someone ought to try and find how it disappeared and whatever else may have disappeared…or how about magically appeared.
King County has horrible internal controls.
Logan is responsible. PERIOD!!
Exactly how much more must you see to understand this???
I’m almost there with you Josef about a run-off. The problem is all the underlying chaos has yet to be fixed.
If we can agree King County has shown it is totally out of control and unreliable…what is the solution??
And let’s elimate allowing the Legislature to decide!
Unfortunately, in the end, the Supreme Court will chosse our Governor.
Mr C – Please put that line on your job application to the Gregoire administration.
QUESTION- Have the R’s filed, and I hear they are going to Pierce, that old fart from DC is still running the show I bet, and I hope Sam Reed will do himself a bit better, by briefing on behalf of King County.
JIM K- you like the guy, please ask him to do the right thing and back up his own corrections instructions.
Wnt food shopping tonight, this stuff is THE talk. Santa could walk by naked, no impact. And the first comment is something” who the hell is the Vance guy….and much worse. He is seriously damaging the R’s for a generation, gaining ion Seattle. Oh, forgot, they don’t want any gains in Seattle, country folk more susceptabel.. Found myself half defending him as a needed partisian hack cheerleader type. The word total asshole resonated among the Christ mas music.
Comment by Goldy— 12/16/04 @ 6:44 pm
Thank you for the kind words – “I’m happy to let Josef do the research; I may disagree with him politically most of the time, but he’s good at research, and apparently trustworthy.” Besides, I have my own blog and I am an unpaid Lane Legionnaire whom dutifully serves his Defense Secretary.
Also, I refuse to dignify Mr. Cynical with a reply since he is a proven liar. He must be Tim LIE-man!
Mr. Cynical
If this were some evil plot by Logan and company, don’t you think they would have got those ballots in during the manual? It would have been Vance forking out the recount dough, oh I forgot they would have conceded!
I also have done some serious research on the events leading up to today at http://tinyurl.com/5es2d . I also note the ballot troubles outside of King County…
Comment by Robin— 12/16/04 @ 7:18 pm
This is the manual, but free advice: Ignore Mr. Cynical.
If Jeb Bush shows up, you know, just curious yu’all, to see what is happening, THEN and only then, beware the R’ US Supreme Court.
?????? – Over on the Soundfarting site, no on th R’s sit, easily mexed, they say they have information that King has generated 25 new Rossi votes……what gives. True or False? Thought those stats were secret till the end……I suspect loval media would die for thema dn use them if they thought they were accurate.
Any insight—-and yes my heart is hardening. Missions will get a lot of food out of me in the next weeks, want to keep Mother Theresa smiling.
When arguing that computer errors in databases occur is seeing as ‘partisan spin,’ you know you are dealing with somebody who is not listening, just spouting.
As for your comments about voting Dem: You can vote however you want, but clearly you are not a progressive. Central to your commentary recently is that Christine Gregoire is a ‘scorned middle-aged woman.’ Huh. Keep talking, C. You’re a winner.
Break from ROTK- Bob- the way it has been going, with Pierce now +18 for Gregoire, I expect Spokane to be +17 for Gregoire and King County to be +33 for Rossi… Bob- I appreciate you wanting your gal to win, I think you appreciate that I want my guy to win, I do not mind you gloating ast good news, and I won’t rub it in too bad when good news comes my way… At least you don’t fill the posts with pure, unadulterated horse patooty…
But I think it is hold on for the ride…
Anyway, Pierce was posting daily counts… I think King should, too…
And X is right- Mrs Gregoire is hardly scorned- her hubby loves her to no end, and that is not being sarcastic. Electeds spouses have it hard, listening to things said about their loved ones…
Lordy, now I’m at the part of ROTK where the evil oliphants try to styorm the city… Wait, I’m supposed to be on the side of the evil oliphants… Damn, I’m an orc…
josef
I did mean machine and thanks
Careful what you wish for, I hear Katherine Harris is on the way to Seattle via Kiev.
DJ – I always thought it was spelled with a C — but. I don’t know if Floridians know just what a bad name Ms. Harris earned in the outer world like Seattle.
“Come on… do I really have to be the one to explain that those 44 votes did not come from a hand count of the electronic voting machines? Think a moment guys…
60-some percent of the vote in Snohomish was by absentee ballot! That’s where the votes changed.
Sheesh.”
Yes, Goldy- someone has to explain the simple things to the simple-minded. Might as well be you- I gave up on them. Some people just can’t be taught anything…
Jim, now that’s funny… you commenting on on a comment I left on (un)Sound Politics.
I wonder if Stefan would have eventually corrected them himself.
Goldy- you are now being taken to task over there because, apparently, Snohomish County should have used the “more accurate” electronic voting machines for absentee votes…
I can just see John Koster’s face when Terwilliger asks the Snohomish County for a budget that lets him mail an electronic voting machine to each absentee voter- return postage paid…
As I said, they are unteachable over there…
Comment by Bob from Boeing— 12/16/04 @ 7:28 pm
According to the State DIA (Defense Intelligence Agency) – that’s true.
Make sure you visit my blog – a must-see!
This hand recount has made a mockery out of this system…and the Dems are to thank for it. Most veryone I know especially the democrats (suprised me too) think that sweet Chrissy fucked up…
Chuck — KING 5 poll—–this am—-63 per cent say count the votes — your frinds are trying to please you to avoid that scowl…..or grimace….or fear you are going to have a stroke….your opinions are hard hitting.
Comment by Chuck— 12/16/04 @ 10:40 pm
All the sane Dems I’ve talked to concur. This is the twilight zone.
Methinks what needs to happen is a new election, even though if it’s fair Rossi will win.
I also just happened to get my precious hot hands on what the State GOP is firing back – convincing stuff. There is definitely something broken in King County Elections. . .
This is a rerun of the blank ballot incident… Vance asks for more security, they tell him no and then he goes to court. Now, he just wants a paper trail and chain of custody, they tell him no and he goes to court. Geese, I think King County should hire Chris Vance to guard the ballots… or they should listen more to the guy.
I hate to join the conspiracy theory crowd and sincere apologize in advance but folks, I recall seeing KING 5 and KOMO 4 publish video footage of the 567 ballots being outside of the cage. As I review the GOP stuff, I’ve noticed others making the same observation.
I hate to break this to Chairman Phillips, but from my minituae understanding of election law – your vote will not count. I would bet a lot that the Pierce County Judge will put an end to this.
Josef- Afraid not. The state Supreme Court has the final authority, and it has already okayed what King is doing. The Pierce County Court case means nothing. So has Sam Reed, by the way. Instead of wolfing down Vance’s propoganda, you should take a careful look at what’s really going on. Can’t see that you get it yet.
Comment by Sandra Morrison— 12/16/04 @ 11:43 pm
I have sworn affidavits, not propaganda. You lie in a sworn affidavit, you go to jail for perjury. It’s that simple.
You, in your stereotypical arrogance, claim that, “Pierce County Court case means nothing”. Well, we’ll let a judge decide that.
I’m not a neocon. And I also mentioned the media’s video of those ballots…
Josef, I agree that if proof exists that these 573 were not secure, they will not and should not count. Especially considering King County’s problems, f. ex. the 22 found ballots.
Josef–
For shame…exactly where am I a “proven liar”???
Can’t you see the Gregoire “spin machine” at work on this Phillips issue???
They are trying to call this “just a computer error”!
Yeah, right!!
Josef–keep asking the questions about this “error”.
For me, it is just another sterling example of King County incompetence!!!
The “spinners” like to minimize & shoot messengers.
I voted for 7 Dems….not Gregoire!!!
Back onto the subject of Snohomish County for a moment, the following tidbit from the Everett Herald explains how Gregoire picked up the extra votes:
Comment by Mr. Cynical— 12/17/04 @ 1:36 am
Jim King is a whole lot more credible than you. He proved you a liar and I believe him. Go publish a blog and post your signature cards – then I might believe you again…
Comment by Goldy— 12/17/04 @ 1:44 am
Probably because conservatives value the pomp and circumstance of going to the polls more… You may also want to investigate if the machine maker made any campaign donations.
Actually, that fits with the trends moving in Rossi’s direction in the closing days- he peaked ion Election Day, the poll vote reflects his highest point, just as late absentees were stronger for him than early absentees. The Herald explanation makes sense…