King County just dumped today’s results, and added to ballots counted earlier today elsewhere in the state, EHJR 4204, the Simple Majority amendment, now leads by over 5,000 votes statewide.
No doubt there may be a little seesawing over the next few days as ballots get tallied county by county, but this is first time since the polls closed that Simple Majority has been in the lead, and you’ve got to be encouraged by the trend. Late absentees apparently broke for the initiative, and it sure looks like Darryl’s prognostication is being proven true.
UPDATE:
More counties have reported, increasing 4204’s lead to 7,198. Although the ballots left to count number is always a rough estimate, nearly 60-percent of ballots remaining come from counties where 4204 is leading, while late absentees continue to trend Yes throughout the state. If trends continue, 4204 will likely exceed the roughly 7,900 2000 vote margin needed to avoid an automatic recount.
UPDATE, UPDATE:
In the comment thread RonK points out that an automatic recount occurs if the margin is under 0.5% and 2000 votes. My bad. Oh… and the latest count has it up by 6,952.
It’s now up by 6,500 votes and almost out of recount territory.
So much for the anti-establishment narrative.
Also 0.0164% away from winning without a recount.
I would disagree with Goldy’s seesaw comment – every county that’s coming in is increasing the margin.
Looks like 39,000 more votes to count in King County…
Just because people have worked all their lives to be able to become a homeowner, does it make them “anti-establishment” when they don’t wish to get taxed out their home? Gets pretty tiresome all the outsiders moving in, crowing & howling about all the world class needs that the oldtimers didn’t want to pay for. If Seattle is such an awful place to live, why don’t the outsiders go back to wherever it was they came from?
Let the flaming begin!
Lame! The Simple Majority doesn’t deserve to win! Before you chastise me and say that I am against our schools, ask yourself who is supposed to be paying for the schools. The State possibly? Schools should not be funded through levies. Period! School funding through levies gives affluent school districts an unfair advantage over school districts that do not have the financial capacity to voluntarily increase their property taxes.
My kids do benefit from living and going to school in an affluent school district that raises alot of money by way of levies. But just because my family benefits from it doesn’t make it right.
If people are so willing to raise their own local taxes to fund their schools, I think that the school districts that benefit from levies should lose a portion of their state funding so that less affluent districts can make better use of the available state money.
As of 4:58pm, 20 minutes after the diary posting, the margin is now +7198 votes.
It’s fraud! It’s fraud! Stephan and Jim! What do I do and say now?!?!
Spineless @ 5;
Well, I agree with your reasoning, but not your conclusion. I agree that Washington state needs a bottom-to-top restructure of its tax system, which would include how we pay for schools. I also agree that the current system encourages people from wealthier areas to continually vote to keep down state spending on schools, and then just kick in extra for the exclusive use of their own districts (levies) or a particular school (special fundraisers). It’s disengenious of the right-wingers to criticize the Seattle school district for its funding problems, when a single PTSA auction at a Bellevue school can raise more money to pay extra for “technology centers”, or a band trip, or a bonus to snag a winning football coach, than a Seattle school pays for an entire department full of teachers for a year.
But given that we are stuck with the current system for the time being, I am willing to accept incremental changes. I don’t see any reason why a “no” vote should count more than a “yes” vote. One person, one vote, no more.
Not a good day for the wingnuts. Giuliani will be going down in flames pretty soon due to that poor piece of bad judgement called Bernie Kerik.
And Giuliani’s relationship with Rupert Murdoch? A little too cozy. Tax breaks galore and not a single critical editorial in Murdoch’s papers in 4 years during Guiliani’s administration.
Simple majority will pass and Timmeh Lieman’s bullcrap will squeak only to be shot down by the Supremes.
Nice try wingnut losers!
If I linearly extrapolate the remaing uncounted ballots assuming they get they are the same approve/reject ratio for the county their in and including undervotes (no vote registered for that measure) of 3%, I project a win of 9600 +/- 1500 votes.
Again…this assumes that the later returns don’t change their proportion (which is happening, but I can’t quantify it).
It’s 9600 +/- 2400 … I read the wrong line on the spreadsheet.
Spineless- where should the State get the money for schools?
Spineless @5,
These are two separate issues. And by the way, since most districts levy near full capacity, and that number is a fixed percentage of total state and federal funding, local school levies are not the primary source of funding inequity between districts… PTSA subsidies are. Affluent PTSAs can raise well over $1000 per student, while some schools don’t even have PTSAs, and thus don’t raise a dime. This is the secret levy that nobody talks about.
That said, I agree that the state is not living up to its obligation; all our kids deserve the extra $1000/per the kids in the affluent schools are getting.
9
I hope both the super majority gets shot down and 4204 passes. It just ensures that Dino will have enough votes to overcome the fraudulent vote of the dems. Re-elect Dino for governor. roof roof
Check me on this, but isn’t the recount mandatory only if the margin is BOTH under 0.5% AND under 2000 votes?
IOW, isn’t it a win by a mile?
Everything is falling in place for Dino. You put together the unconstitutional ruling by liberal cronies in the Supreme court, the come form behind win by votes cast in corrupt KC, and Gregoire covering her liberal ass to pass a property tax initiative makes high taxes the major issue of 2008. Dino should easily have enough votes to overcome KC.
@15
Secretary of State agrees with you, which means 4204 has for sure passed.
If you look at the votes to count in every county and use the aggregate %’s for pass/fail to calculate the split on yet to be counted votes, then the margin of passage will narrow by about 2000 votes and end up in the 5,175 range.
This method is conservative in that late counted ballots were producing more yes votes across the board, but I would be surprised if the ending margin is over 6,000.
With the passage of 4204 perhaps at long last the anti-tax whiners will stop hiding behind the “supermajority” rule and put on their thinking caps to push for real tax reform.
For too long they have used their own greed and their own fear to effectively shield those whose wealth goes woefully undertaxed.
Maybe they will wake up.
“Everything is falling in place for Dino.”
…..to reactivate his real estate licence. He he he, snf, ha!
…”but I would be surprised if the ending margin is over 6,000.”
Prepare to be suprised. I mean really, the late returns exhibit an unambiguous trend that will not be diverted by your wishful thinking. You are simply making a guess to suit your ideological preferences.
Not that I am against that, but those preferences should be stated up front.
@19.
though i agree i still feel that too many will think that one day they too will become rich or wealthy and want to protect what they don’t yet have.
IMHO there will always be the tax boogie man to scare the uninformed
Re: 22. I don’t agree with you. None of the liberals on this site believe they will ever get wealthy; they might have to get a job or something to do that.
@12: K says:
Spineless- where should the State get the money for schools?
Easy. Congestion tolling and an education use tax. These tolls and taxes should be paid every day in cash, or the kiddies get sent home. Thus the smart kids can save money and still pass by judiciously skipping out. And if classes are crowded? Charge more to be there “using” the facilities. What could be fairer?
It’s the wingnut way.
(note: post above is fully intended to be sarcastic and snarky. If you don’t get it, call 1-800-get-clue).
“…they might have to get a job or something to do that.”
Like Amy Vanderbilt, or Nelson Rockefeller, or more currently, John Walton?
All is forgiven if you win the birth lottery.
Best re-check your RCW 29A.64.021. Recounts are only mandatory in races involving candidates.
A recount for an issue measure, whether state or local, must be requested by a group of 5 registered voters within the jurisdiction, and must be accompanied by a deposit of 25 cents per voter, so the deposit alone on a statewide recount is going to run someone just under a cool million.
That cost might give supporters pause in requesting a recount, no matter how close 4204 finishes for either side…
Proud Ass @22, No I was not just making a guess @18.
The projected votes cast based upon votes mailed and a proven return rate has been a reliable tool in making post election educated predictions which become more accurate as the batches of ballots are counted.
It is true though that the base numbers I was using changed as I was doing my calculation and the end result is that I would calculate the final margin of passage at 4837 and not more than 5,500.
@ 26
Check out RCW 29A.64.090
When the official canvass of returns of any election reveals that the difference in the number of votes cast for the approval of a statewide measure and the number of votes cast for the rejection of such measure is less than two thousand votes and also less than one-half of one percent of the total number of votes cast on such measure, the secretary of state shall direct that a recount of all votes cast on such measure be made on such measure, in the manner provided by *RCW 29A.64.040 and 29A.64.060, and the cost of such recount will be at state expense.
Phil @ 28:
Fair enough. I stand corrected.
@ 29
I was wrong at first too, no problem.
@ 29
I was wrong at first too, no problem.
The problem with equal funding for public school districts on, say, a per capita basis, is local versus nonlocal participation in said districts.
When the state or the Feds tend to be the dominant means by which a school district is funded (Kansas City for the latter for a decade or two; poorer districts throughout Vermont, New Mexico and Texas for the former), public participation falls. When you try to restrict local supplemental spending in wealthy public school districts (such as in the three states mentioned above) as part of making financially equivalent all public school districts in a given state, all hell typically breaks loose.
I think a bargain has to be struck where the wealthier districts can get away with supplemental spending, but that a floor has to be set for all public school districts in Washington state as to what constitutes “an adequate education” and the cost per district to make it happen, then require a statewide tax for all citizens to pay, somewhat like a FICA-type bill for making sure all our kids get what they need. Yes, Mercer Island and Bellevue will still find money for “extras”, but if the point is made that they get that in return for their residents helping districts in need, it might counteract any “death to all taxes” types.
As for taxes in general in this state, I think the two problems are, first, people don’t dislike a state income tax so much as they don’t want another tax – elimination of the more foolish ones and a reduction of the state’s portion of the sales tax with a commitment to not raise it for, say, five to ten years might attract favorable attention – and second, as much as I dislike it personally, people do tend to be “user fee” oriented around here. How you crack that mindset, I think, is the toughest thing to do.
My two bits…
K says:
Spineless- where should the State get the money for schools?
General Fund will pay for all school expenses, just cut the funds to programs that produce no results, or provide no services to the taxpayer. Sell off all parts of the goverment that can be done by the private sector. Start with the State Liqueur Stores, let Costco, RiteAid, Safeway, QFC, and other stores maintained those products.
Dino will have enough votes to overcome the fraudulent vote of the dems.
It’s a wingnut myth. Where’s the felons? Oops Sam Reed is responsible for removing them from the rolls.
Where’s the dead people. Never were many of those Republican voters but Sam has cleaned them off as well.
Where’s the double voters? A handful. Never enough to hardly matter. Sam Reed looks for them AFAIK.
The military vote? Oops. Primaries were moved back so military voters could get their ballot on time.
But silly DOOFUS keeps repeating the lie again and again and again hoping it will stick. I hope people aren’t stupid enough to believe him.
Eat shit mutt! It’s your job.
Start with the State Liqueur Stores
I hope not. Ever live in California? A liquor store on just about every corner.
Butt ugly and magnets for crime. Wingnut paradise.
elimination of the more foolish ones and a reduction of the state’s portion of the sales tax with a commitment to not raise it for, say, five to ten years might attract favorable attention
Don’t forget reducing the state portion of property taxes. Fixed income folks will appreciate the relief.
The I-960 approval has narrowed to 51.5% – 48.4%, but that’s probably too much to overcome in the late absentees.
@5 ” … ask yourself who is supposed to be paying for the schools. The State possibly? Schools should not be funded through levies. Period!”
Washington, like other states, funds K-12 schools with property taxes. The difference here is that a portion of these taxes are “processed” through the state budget and SPI’s office on their way to the districts, instead of going directly to the districts. This, incidentally, makes our state’s “general government” budget look much larger than it actually is, because about 45% of the state budget goes to K-12.
When you say the state is supposed to pay for schools, if this implies taking it out of general revenues from other taxes, to the detriment of “general government” spending, you’re wrong because no other state does that.
The truth is, regardless of the accounting mechanisms used, nearly all states fund their schools from property taxes and we’re no different. In the end, it doesn’t matter whether the state, the county, or the school district collects the taxes. In the end, the property taxes we pay for education are not out of line with other states. In fact, our overall property tax rates are lower than those in many other states.
@14 Hey dog! If Democrats are stealing elections, how can Dino win? Do you know something about fraudulent voting that we don’t? roofroof! I think we should execute dogs who commit election crimes.
@15 No, either/or.
@22 “though i agree i still feel that too many will think that one day they too will become rich or wealthy and want to protect what they don’t yet have. IMHO there will always be the tax boogie man to scare the uninformed”
That’s not what it’s about. Many senior citizens are barely getting by, and are genuinely scared of property tax increases. It’s one thing to pay annual property tax increases of several percent when you’re working and your income is going up with inflation; it’s another thing when you can’t work and have to live on a fixed income that doesn’t go up with the cost of medical care, fuel, etc. And nothing rises faster than taxes, believe me. This is a real issue and those who support education and other public services are being politically foolish if they ignore the impact this has on senior citizens. Senior citizens are a large voting bloc, and they are voting against you on these issues. Push them hard enough, and they’ll vote against our candidates, too.
@23 I’m pretty sure all of the liberals on this board are either working, have worked, or have to work. Unlike many Republicans, none of us go a $1.5 million tax-free inheritance.
“Another election stolen by King County?” Eyman said. “You can’t say that people aren’t saying it and aren’t thinking it.”
His idiocy continues to astound.
@32 “I think a bargain has to be struck where the wealthier districts can get away with supplemental spending, but that a floor has to be set for all public school districts in Washington state as to what constitutes ‘an adequate education’ and the cost per district to make it happen, then require a statewide tax for all citizens to pay, somewhat like a FICA-type bill for making sure all our kids get what they need. Yes, Mercer Island and Bellevue will still find money for ‘extras’, but if the point is made that they get that in return for their residents helping districts in need, it might counteract any “death to all taxes” types.”
I agree. The focus should be on every district having adequate funding for a basic education, not limiting what parents in wealthy districts can choose to spend on extras.
“As for taxes in general in this state, I think the two problems are, first, people don’t dislike a state income tax so much as they don’t want another tax – elimination of the more foolish ones and a reduction of the state’s portion of the sales tax with a commitment to not raise it for, say, five to ten years might attract favorable attention – and second, as much as I dislike it personally, people do tend to be “user fee” oriented around here. How you crack that mindset, I think, is the toughest thing to do.”
The Gates Commission recommended a “revenue neutral” state income tax that would replace the 6.6% state sales tax and B & O tax. Under this plan, you would still have a local sales tax (3.3% in King County) but the B & O tax would be completely eliminated.
The problem with the “revenue neutral” concept is that, one, it’s difficult to define let alone enforce, and two, it doesn’t allow government spending to grow in tandem with public needs. While this will provoke knee-jerk cries of “good!,” part of the objective of tax reform is (or should be) to break the cycle of underfunding of vital public services caused by inability to raise more money from regressive taxation. Our state’s needs don’t go away simply because we’re taxing the wrong people and have thereby provoked a tax revolt. We’ve underinvested for decades in our universities, public schools, transportation infrastructure, and prisons, among other things. These things do need more money than we can raise under the existing tax structure, and aside from fairness, a big part of the reason for having a tax structure based on ability to pay is so vital public services aren’t starved of funds, as happens when the tax structure forces you to tax those least able to pay, which is the situation we have now. So, “revenue neutral” is a questionable concept. Washington should simply adopt the same mix of taxes that 45 other states have adopted, which has proven to work. Citizens of those states are not excessively taxed; their ability to vote legislators out of office ensures that.
@33 What a dumbass you are, klake! If you sell the liquor stores to the private sector, you’ll have to replace the state’s profits from those stores by raising taxes.
@33 Outside of the 50% of the state budget that goes to K-12 and higher education, the largest spending item in the state budget is nursing care for indigent elderly. (This is paid for under the Medicaid program, with the federal and state governments each paying 50% of the cost.)
What are you going to do with those people, put them on the curb and leave them there to die?
You are a fucking idiot, klake,
@33 (continued) Another big item in the state budget is corrections. Which prisons do you want to close, and how many felons are you willing to release to the streets, to save a few bucks on your taxes?
Phil says:
“Another election stolen by King County?” Eyman said. “You can’t say that people aren’t saying it and aren’t thinking it.”
No democrats would… democrats cheat. The 57% that will be voting for Rossi come 2008 think so. That is all that counts. It is going to be a good 2008. Re-elect Dino Rosi. roof roof
The only election cheaters around here are Republican felons, Republican corpses, Republican Party staff, and Republican dogs.
Has anyone ever considered lobbying for more FEDERAL funding for our schools…considering the fact that we only receive about 10% Federal funding, most of which is already earmarked for special programs. Oh right, I forgot, it’s all been spent on Bush’s “War on Terror”. Jut think how incredible our schools might be if just part of the trillion dollars spent on this mindless, ridiculous, horrific war was spent on education in this country…we might be able to travel to other countries and not be ridiculed for the fact that we can speak ONLY one language, compared to their three, four or five spoken languages. Very sad indeed!
Oh yes, and by the way, WAY TO GO 4204!!
OK, 4204 — WHERE’S THE VICTORY PARTY?
YLB – The Clueless One (TM) copied then barked: “Start with the State Liqueur Stores” – copy
“I hope not. Ever live in California? A liquor store on just about every corner. Butt ugly and magnets for crime. Wingnut paradise.” – barked
CA is a blue state, a leftist haven for the Sean Penn crowd. It’s ain’t a wingnut paradise as you claim. Only the OC votes to the right and it’s a nice place to live. But YLB – The Clueless One (TM) looks at anything he despises stupidly.
Shocking as it may seem the wife and I voted for 4204. So I was shocked to see it losing. I think we should allow a simple majority.
@ 41 Roger Rabbit says:
“That’s not what it’s about. Many senior citizens are barely getting by, and are genuinely scared of property tax increases. It’s one thing to pay annual property tax increases of several percent when you’re working and your income is going up with inflation; it’s another thing when you can’t work and have to live on a fixed income that doesn’t go up with the cost of medical care, fuel, etc………..
=======
if we still had a tax system that taxed the corporations at 1960s levels then our nation’s retired “middle-class” could have many of these services provided for.
it would take too long to explain my thoughts on property taxes…but income taxes for the working poor (or what the media calls middle-class) could be much more fair and you make it fair by taxing those that make the most at a higher rate.
and this foolishness about estate taxes and the like is the wealthier few scaring those with less into harming themselves and their futures.
Rossi fans understandably prefer to ignore simple facts. The facts are:
1. Incumbents always have an advantage. 2004 was an open race; 2008 is an incumbent Governor running for re-election. I haven’t done the research, but how often have incumbent Governors lost in this state?
2. Dino Rossi has been out of government and out of the public eye since 2004. The most recent “accomplishment” to which he can point is his claim to a share of the state budget writing pre-2004. Pretty thin.
3. When Rossi had chances to comment on and stake out a position on the most important and contentious issues facing the state since 2004, he declined every time. Voters aren’t stupid; they know about this lack of leadership and it will work against him.
4. Christine Gregoire has a record of competent stewardship at worst, and real leadership at best.
Rossi at 57%? Ho ho ho, I don’t think so!
Hey Daddy Love: Great Analysis why Darcy Moonbat Burner has a slim chance removing Dave Reichert… eh?
I like it:
I-960 so far…
Yes 772,630 51.5530 %
No 726,080 48.4470 %
Oh yeah… recently per Goldy this 46,000+ lead was a slim victory. Well without all the loonly lefties in King county the jackbooted goose-stepping frog victory march would have been much larger!
Another pyrrhic comment?
@58 So you think a third of Washington’s population is looney? King County happens to be where more of this state’s people live than anywhere else. King County happens to be where the biggest chunk of the state’s economic activity occurs. And King County happens to be the county whose taxes subsidize the rest of the state’s citizens.
So Pelletizer (TM) your point is… Because they live there doesn’t make them superior or right. Otherwise Pelletizer (TM), Prop 1 would have passed?