I’ve enjoyed my pissing match with Stephan at (un)Sound Politics over the accuracy of voting technologies, and whether we can ever really know who won the governor’s race in a statistically meaningful way. And I’m enjoying it even more now that the Seattle Times has weighed in (“Top vote-getter? We may never truly know“) just a day after our dueling rebuttals. (His… mine.)
“It’s closer than the technology and our capacity as humans to decipher,” said Jeffery Mondak, a political-science professor at Florida State University. “You folks would do as well to flip a coin as to try to determine who actually won.”
I couldn’t have said it better myself. Oh wait… I did!
Read ’em and weep, Stefan.
Like I said earlier: RUNOFF!
Let there be one candidate with 50 percent plus one… so we can move forward!
Why would I weep? I know enough political science professors (I’m the son of one) to know that their opinions are often based on anecdote rather than actual science. I’d be interested in hearing his reasoning behind this statement. But based on what I read in the article, it doesn’t seem to be a very rigorous rigorous argument.
As I’ve stated before, I agree that we won’t know with certainty who really won the election. But we don’t need certainty here, we only need a reasonable level of confidence that one side or the other won. To state that we might as well flip a coin implies that the two counts that Rossi won gave us absolutely no information. That doesn’t seem to be a very thoughtful statement.
Know I said I was leaving for good, but I had to post one more thing. Since Goldy doesn’t have any open threads, I’ll have to post this and be off message. I just received my car ribbon magnets with “Bring Home Our Troops,” printed on them. I’m so pleased with them that I want to let others know that there is such a thing and can be obtained @ troopsribbon.com –I got one for each of my cars and will be filling my cars with Shell gasoline from now on.
Just a little playful hyperbole, Stefan. I’m sure you’re well familiar with that rhetorical device.
And yes, you are correct that the first two counts gave us information… just enough to know that we likely cannot determine who got the most votes to any meaningful degree of confidence.
The difference between me and you is that if my candidate wins the third count, I’m not going to distort statistics to trumpet it as a clear voter mandate. (Well… I might, but only to jokingly needle people like you.)
I read this Times story and had sto drin a shot of whiskey from too hard laughing. OH sure lts uote the experst at Duck Swamp U. Since Florida is such a beacon in voting process and county by county good stuff. Surprised the Times didn’t interview Cathing Harris on the topic- Clean, Well Organised And Above Board Reconts- her press assistant in her congressinal office would have helped I m sure.
Thanks, Goldy. Yes, MIT and Cal Tech are better sources. You, sir, look good , very good.
That other site is now obsessing about geting rid of stupid voters… like their grandparents with the palsey. Some over the top folk there. With the median age in the US well over 50, heading higher each minute, older folks and their human mechanical gliches are not going to like their blather.
Once again, Stefan makes the wrong call. What a surprise. Seems the math at Sound Politics isn’t so sound after all.
Quote from eminent ancient Greek….about all I remember from college classes on same….
Despit all he interesting semi-erudite and very college text musings about election tallies……”the way to count a horse’s teeth is to pry its mouth open and count them”…..
Peter A- do not try this at home- you may lose a finger…
Stefan writes that “we don’t need certainty here, we only need a reasonable level of confidence that one side or the other won.”
We will have 100% confidence — that’s certainty — that one side or the other won, once the ballots are manually recounted. The recount will tell us who got the most votes. Whoever got the most votes is the winner. The winner is the Governor. Second-guessing the count (“but I think candidate X really won!”) won’t accomplish anything (except make the second-guesser look like a sore loser).
David- the problem with your certainty is the question of which ballots are recounted. If we get through this without the kind of legal disputes that leave one side or the other with a rational basis for griping that the count was gamed, then yes, we have certainty and any griping is sour grapes. But that remains a big if, especially as one of the Democrats four voters in their lawsuit apparently was not even a registered voter (duh, I wonder why he never received an absentee ballot and why his provisional ballot was rejected…). We screwed up, in that we did not codify Henry VI, Part Two, Act 4, Scene 2, as a necessary precursor to a manual recount…
Cross thread- Jeff B- I assume this post about problem voters is well intended.
I would have never taken you for an old time Stalinist. Where the power of the state simply obliterates the citizen individual in the interest of some state reasoning of ease and bureaucratic convenience.
All democracies rest on assumption real power of the citizen base as individuals. Once the state can take away your vote, it can take the only real power you have, what is left?
Your value to the political process which governs you is first of all the vote.
It seems that you like politics, and I am sure you are a patriot. But your rush to smooth a difficult moment because of this recount and in the process suggest taking votes out of the voter pool is a bad track. All voters are terribly important, each vote is terribly important because it is really how the system works across the country.
Refresh you insight into how many times and how many things Americans as citizens control because they vote. First all, yes ALL, level of govt.- federal, state, city, county, school district, small town, money for schools. And even more. There is real power in the vote, it is even important at some very low levels we don’t think about. The weed district, PUD board, small town mayor. Monorail bonds.
I think you do not give human resources and potential credit enough to work over the problem ballots. It is no big deal. You need to be on a counting board. Most mistakes are very easy to resolve. This election and the media and the size of the vote in King County have exaggerated the question of problem ballots. And, most folk don’t know Washington State has had provisional ballots for 25 years, not a new shake.
Suggest you read the case law in this state on voting, You will be impressed how courts have protected this right, with eloquent and substantial rulings. And all the changes in the last 100 years have been to enfranchise more voters not to take away voting rights.
A lot of what you, and others, are saying sounds like the opponents of women voting-the anti suffragette movement. Women would be problem voters, weren’t informed, didn’t have political skills, not intelligent enough, nobless obligee-men will make fine decisions on their behalf. And on down a much larger list. All that sounds sill now, but……
We can all champion better voter eduction, more access to all polls, help at the point of voting, state wide standards in all counties, perhaps better and clearer standards for problem ballots with more outside folk watching and video taping each of them, many possible tweaks to get the whole system functioning better with more immediate accuracy.
No reforms can be based on the rhetoric of “idiots who should not vote,” ethnic groups that should not vote, economic status determining who should not vote, young or old who should not vote.
This is one time I think we can wave the flag quite properly. Many lives across the has 200 hundred year have been spent to protect the fight to vote, to accord that right and to make sure it happens. Serious indeed.
Mr. King – I read the Democratic letter about the voter you mentioned. I think the person moved, registered in the new location, but the new registration was not entered by the county in time for the election. Thus his provisianal ballot was tossed, voting not allowed, no error on his part no chance to correct the mistake. Going to research it more. This lawsuit is very interesting. The Washington Supreme Court can mandate several sweeping changes, if they want to.
The
courts
will
decide
this
race.
Bob from Boeing- I am hoping that the Court recognizes the public interest in this case, and gets documents online post haste- on the other hand, I truly hope the Court does not go making sweeping changes- both because you do NOT do that this late in the game, and because such changes are the duty of the Legislature, not the Court.
“Sweeping changes” by the Court, as opposed to narrow rulings, will almost certainly create an outcry about the outcome of the election.
And Bob- as for no chance to correct the error- did this voter NOT follow up and check on the status of his provisional ballot? Even with some of the problems that occurred, I have heard very little of provisional voters- who should have been very aware that their ballots would be questioned- making the effort to check.
You cannot always check a provisional ballot, my son filled one out and was never given a reference number so he could, he didnt even know (niether did I) that he was supposed to be given a number.
I worked at the polls during several elections when I was in college in Philadelphia… and the Democratic machine had a habit of purging the rolls around universities (Mayor Rizzo and his cronies didn’t like all those liberal students voting). Anyway… this was such a common problem that judges would be placed at police stations around the city… if you weren’t on the rolls, all you needed to to do was show proof of residence and swear before the judge that you had registered, and the judge would order the polling place to let you vote (the old lever machines… no provisional ballot.) Almost nobody bothered to take advantage of this, but it did occur.
The point is, voting rights are so fundamental to our democracy that I’ve always felt the burden should be on the government to prove that you are not eligible to vote, not the other way around.
Goldy- well here, we used to require that to maintain a registration, a voter only had to vote in the presidential election every four years, or in any election once every two years- if you went that long without voting, a notice was sent to your registered address indicating that you had to contact the elections department, or you would be purged from the rolls. Not an unreasonable process…
Since the motor voter act, the automatic purging is not allowed by federal law. Most counties now periodically mail registered voters for one reason or another, and mail returned triggers another mailing to which a voter needs to respond- if it is returned by the post office, there is an assumption that the voter is no longer at that address, and no longer legally registered. Again, I fail to see an undue burden on the voter.
Vote, or respond. If you move, you need to let the elections folks know you’ve moved- you have no right to keep voting in a place you are no longer residing, especially in local elections.
Registration is not an undue burden, and voters who take simple steps do not face problems. And we bend over backwards to correct problems.
Jim, the purpose of my anecdote was to comment on the case of the complainant who “wasn’t registered.” The point is, he says he sent in his registration, and thus it was reasonable for him to believe he was registered. Why should he be disenfranchised due to clerical error? What is the harm of allowing otherwise eligible voters, who do not appear on the rolls, to vote if they swear, at risk of perjury, that they registered?
I have had the privelage to live in about 10 countries around the world and elections are looked forward to with eagerness and seriousness. In some of those countries there is a ‘fine’ of one months salary for not voting (Ecuador). In Thailand you have to go to the state of your birth to vote and in some instances it is a 20+ hour bus ride for them to do it but they do it with honor and pride. We have one of the lowest voter turnouts in the world yet we are the so called leader in Democracy. I firmly believe that the elections should be much more serious with better planning and infrastructure. If the costs go up then so be it. Our elections are one of our most cherished rights and over 50% of the public sees it as a distraction. Hopefully this long drawn out process that we are going through will help the powers that be to do a total reform of the election system and let the USA regain its position of high esteem that is has had in the past. Around the world the USA is looked at with contempt after the presidential election of 2000. The USA sends observers to basically all elections in the world and criticizes most of them for election errors, whereas now the world looks at us and laughs in our faces at ‘the hypocrites’ we seem to be. Good luck to all.
Goldy- I guess it comes down to taking a minimal level of care- he “sent in” his registration? Doesn’t work that way…
Point of the provisional ballot is to allow them to vote while we check for clerical errors. I’m willing to go a long ways, but not to the point of election day registration with no cross-checks- that DOES lead to fraud…
And Jim P- I doubt in Thailand, or most places, that people are faced with as many elections each year as we face- we get voter fatigue…
And not voting is a choice- the Soviet bloc used to compel voting too… If a voter cares so little, I don’t particularly want them voting- I don’t want unreasonable barriers in their way, but I don’t want to force them to the polls, either.
And trending off-topic, I care less and less what the rest of the world thinks. Let the rest of the world come to grips with Sudan, or Burma, or any of the other troubled areas- they gripe at us, but don’t do squat themselves.
Jim, good points – especially “If a voter cares so little, I don’t particularly want them voting- I don’t want unreasonable barriers in their way, but I don’t want to force them to the polls, either.”
When I feel a need to protest against a school district or against low-quality candidates, then I want to retain the right of standing mute and withhold my vote.
Jim King wearies of elections: “I doubt in Thailand, or most places, that people are faced with as many elections each year as we face- we get voter fatigue…”
Eh? Most voters around here are faced with no more than one special election in the spring (if any), another election (primary) in the early fall, and a third (general) in the late fall. (See RCW 29A.04.330.) “Voter fatigue” from this schedule? I don’t think so. Low turnout in our elections is more likely a result of apathy due to lack of political awareness, satisfaction with all the candidates, disgust with all the candidates, and/or cynicism about the power of one vote. I think it’s mostly because with all the sophisticated entertainment options available to us these days, dowdy ol’ politics is no longer as big an attention-getter or as relevant-seeming to our lives. Unless, of course, a movie star is on the ballot.
Vote by mail solves all voter fatigue – one of the reasons for its popularity. No need to leave wok, re-schedule, or wait in any line, or even really give a tinkers damn about the actual date of the election.
Also, universal mail ballot would sure create some uniformity, aka Oregon system.
Voter fatigue? VOTER FATIGUE? Come on, get real. Voting is no challenge, but I will tell you one thing about the way it was ran this year. In Roy, Pierce County where I vote there was a line comletely out the door of the fire station (where we vote) I voted by mail but went with my son to vote. This has never happened before. They have changed the system that was used and it slowed things down dramaticly. They are going to have to come up with another system to handle this before it affects voter attendance. Another thing while I am on the subject, on voting by mail. It should be postage paid. I am of the firm commitment that voting should cost the citizen NOTHING. I know it is “only $.37” (right now) but it shouldnt cost a DIME.
Chuck – agree wtih you completely. About the prepaid mailing. In effect we have a quasi poll tax. In Oct. of this year I raised the question to both King County and the Sec. of State, neither think the .37 postage needed is an issue. But, they are acting as budget protector bureaucrats and not real voters. I did think about a very simple lawsuit on the topic. Want to join? After the recount, of course.