Rassmussen blows it here and here.
What, were the “zeros” on their phones broken? Did they accidentally miss all Seattle voters? Did they even try to call anyone in the “206”?
Somebody’s sample is FUBAR.
Can’t Bring Yourself to Type the Word “Ass”?
Eager to share our brilliant political commentary and blunt media criticism, but too genteel to link to horsesass.org? Well, good news, ladies: we also answer to HASeattle.com, because, you know, whatever. You're welcome!
Will — do you have access to Rasmussen’s crosstabs? I certainly would be interested in seeing them. I don’t automatically fault Rasmussen for showing Rossi slightly ahead of Gregoire (47% to 46%). Such a result, with nothing more to credit or discredit it, could actually be plausible.
However, Rasmussen comes up with the result, while showing Rossi and Gregoire tied among independent voters at 44% each. Every crosstab I have seen on a Washington survey shows more Democrats than Republicans — typically 40% D, 30% R, and 30% I. So there is no way a Republican could be ahead in a statewide poll, unless there was a significant lead among independents.
However, Rasmussen comes up with the result, while showing Rossi and Gregoire tied among independent voters at 44% each. Every crosstab I have seen on a Washington survey shows more Democrats than Republicans — typically 40% D, 30% R, and 30% I. So there is no way a Republican could be ahead in a statewide poll, unless there was a significant lead among independents.
Which would explain why he has McCain leading in a state that hasn’t gone R since Ronald freakin’ Reagan was on the ballot- he has the D/I/R breakdown wrong- and where D turnout for the caucuses and primaries swamped R.
This makes Zogby’s predicting a tie between Obama and Clinton in OH and CA look downright brilliant.
I got a call and I’m in the 206.
Self denial of reality got us Bush. Will, I am not going to argue surveys but outside of DL, I have yet to meet anyone IN SEATTLE who is enthusiastic about the governor.
It is not that she is disliked, but she is not seen as a leader. My guess is that Rasmussen is correct.
Time will see, but in the meantime I hope CG shows some evidence of leadership. The recent 520 announcement was start (though two years late). OTOH Why the fuck is she so quiet about the 767 kerfuffle? This si a great time for her to attack the Repricans.
Survey USA is the most accurate poller thus far in this election cycle; but they haven’t yet polled WA for a Gregoire/Rossi result.
Of course, her real problem, is that Rossi is a real Republican while she is running as an administrator emplyed by the Party.
The West Coast ticket .. Schwartznegger, McCain, Rossi is going to be a powerful tool because it will be based on issues he has avoided .. long term budget issues, immigration reform, WASL, etc etc. While she is busy humping the public about gay marriage and green jobs, Rossi and the Terminator will announce the “West Coast” proposal to build jobs up and down the coast, sell apples to California and grapes to Seattle!
I heart here are good jobs for ex guvs in the Chelsea for Prexy campaign,
she is not seen as a leader
But Dino Sat-on-his-ass-for-four-years Won’t-take-a-stand-on-any-important-WA-issue Rossi is?
Hannah @ 3
I thought you were in Kirkland.
No one ever calls us down here in the ass end of the state. It’s like we don’t exist. We don’t even rate high enough to get the Seattle news on TV down here. Does the rest of the state even care that we hit 8% unemployment here? Probably not even aware. Just had to throw that in after listening to the podcast about how well we are doing in WA state.
Well, where are you. Sounds like Pacific county. As one who spends as much time in Seaview as possible, I think you’ve gotten the better deal.
Richard Pope sez:
” So there is no way a Republican could be ahead in a statewide poll, unless there was a significant lead among independents.”
Yes there is Richard…and that is if Rossi has the support of enough Democrats and Gregoire has little Republican support. Don’t assume Gregoire has 100% support of Democrats…especially Democrats owning businesses in Washington.
the poll sounds VERY suspicious to me. Especially given the recent voting trends.
Gregoire has performed well as governor – while Rossi whined for the longest time. People get tired of whining losers. Given the national picture – Washington state won’t go for a McCain or any republican who is busy embracing GWB. Bush is not just an anchor in this state – he is a scarlet letter. Bush and his insipid policies will drag down all of the republicans.
The only reason Schwartznegger is standing is he moved to the left in California.
If association with Bush doesn’t drag Rossi down, Lou Guzzo certainly will if he can’t shut him up.
Mr. Cynical @ 11,
“Don’t assume Gregoire has 100% support of Democrats…especially Democrats owning businesses in Washington.”
Yeah…why the hell would anyone support the Governor of the state that Forbes’ annual survey ranked as number five in the nation for business climate, and Fortune magazine rated the fourth best state in which to start a business?
Clearly…Gregoire is responsible for our state’s embarrassingly good business climate. We’re all shamed by her…
Makes ya kinda wonder exactly what “business” Mr. C is in, doesn’t it?
Richard I am is Issaquah, but have a Vonage 206 area code…save the family long distance. I was shocked I was actually one of the few polled!
Re 12: Are you NUTS?!?
Performed well?
Spending: Way, way, way(!!!!) UP!!!
Transportation: You’ve gotta be kidding, right? She swore on the bible (that’s the Christian one, not the Satanic Koran) that the Viaduct would be a priority. Not to mention every other logjam the commie-demos have given us.
Criminal Justice: Hell, they’re giving PROBATION to murderers in Seattle now (not just the rabbis, either. Real murderers: The kind with guns and premeditation). What has she done to correct this?
Education: Johnny can’t read, but he knows all about faux global warming and condoms. Can’t read, write or do math for squat, but who needs math? Aerospace engineers? Hell, the good ones are all in France!
The Queen has been an abysmal failure. Horrendous. Horrific. Taxes are out of control. People are being slaughtered on our roads. What does she do?
Not a G.D. thing.
cmiklich @ 17,
“The Queen has been an abysmal failure.”
Yet…an independent nationwide study finds Washington state has the 3rd best performing government in the country. And Forbes’ annual survey ranked Washington as number five in the nation for business climate, and Fortune magazine rated Washington as the fourth best state in which to start a business.
“Abysmal failure,” huh?
In the immortal words of Inigo Montoya: “I do not think it means what you think it means.”
@17 cmklich (resident idiot)- If you don’t like it here – then MOVE. Seems we are doing pretty well relative to the rest of the country.
Now we have transportation problems because of our excessive growth. but the pathetic people of this region voted and decided that they don’t WANT to solve the transportation problems – so be it. They can have low taxes and traffic jams or higher taxes and real transportation solutions. they chose trafic jams – if you move that will help relieve the congestion – it will also rasie the intelligence level here by more than a few notches…I suggest going to the Midwest – there is an ethanol boom going on in Iowa and you could use the waste products of the ethanol combined with your writing and analytical skills for an excellent pig slop.
Darryl
How many times has an independent nationwide study trumped the attitude of the voters? People are pretty cynical when it comes to these studies.
I don’t think the public has warmed up to any of the Guv’s so-called accomplishments.
Actually, Mr notrightever: Me and mine built this place. From the late 1800’s when my great-greats homesteaded here.
It’s all the hippy-dippy sodomizing Philadelphia cheese-steak whack-jobs (and their deviant associates) that have screwed this place into something unlivable.
FUBAR? More like Clintonian SNAFU … the Big He’s ah-shucks response to getting caught with 900+ FBI files of political opponents (i.e. Republicans.)
Context: Republican Chuck Colson went to jail for getting caught with one ah-shucks file.
Inescapable conclusion: Being Democrat means never having to say you’re sorry. Except about things that happened 150+ years ago and about which your elaborate sorrow is utterly useless.
@17: A-MEN!
” … the hippy-dippy sodomizing Philadelphia cheese-steak whack-jobs (and their deviant associates) that have screwed this place into something unlivable.”
(So good you needed to see it twice.)
What? The centrist governor goes out on a limb and endorses the wrong presidential candidate (aka, most liberal senator), and it’s costing her some of her centrist support she had?
Shocking.
I’m not happy with Gregoire either, but I’d vote for her any day over Rossi. ANY DAY.
zip,
“How many times has an independent nationwide study trumped the attitude of the voters?”
Ummm…I’m not sure what, exactly, you mean by “trumped.” Public opinion is public opinion. A scientific study is a scientific study. Each is typically used for a different purpose.
“People are pretty cynical when it comes to these studies.”
So?
“I don’t think the public has warmed up to any of the Guv’s so-called accomplishments.”
Maybe. But, as I suggested a few posts ago…people are not in a position to objectively asses the relative merits of different state governments. That is why studies like the Pew Government Performance Project are undertaken.
As for public opinion of Gregoire, last week SurveyUSA released the result of a opinion poll on Gregoire’s approval. The poll of 600 adults gives Gregoire a 51% approval versus a 44% disapproval, and 5% who are unsure.
So…apparently slightly over half the population is not quite as cynical as you suggest.
DustinJames @ 25
I thought Gregoire’s endorsement of Obama was a refreshing and impressive episode of leadership for a change. It should help shift the momentum a point or two or so in her direction.
Darryl @ 26
FWIW, the Rasmussen poll also shows Gregoire with a 51%-44% positive approval rating. Unfortunately, Rasmussen doesn’t provide is crosstabs, unless you pay them for a subscription.
Hannah @ 16
Prove to me that you have a 206 number :)
29 Richard….she has a CELLPHONE. It doesn’t matter where she lives. My boss lives in Tacoma, works in Bellevue and has a Blackberry with a 206 number. I’d get to keep my 206 number on my phone if I moved to Albuquerque.
Richard @ 29
Prove? No I’m not giving my number out here! That would be assanine! (sp?) LOL But as ArtFart points out…I also have a 206 area code cell phone, but while I was staying in Port Ludlow in 2006 I ordered Vonage phone service, where you get to pick your area code, and chose a 206 so my family in Seattle could call Port Ludlow with no long distance…technology is great! And when we moved to Issy in 2007 I was able to keep that same exact number I had in PL.
@25: Dear Dustin Moron – if you actually paid attention to the Caucuses in Washington – where Clinton got trounced and picked up what, 30 some% – you would realize that Gregoire is probably picking up support for supporting Obama – only if she supported clinton could you make the argument that she is LOSING support because of her stand. that – and Obama does better among independents.
You are so blinded by your clinton loyalty that you can’t even understand the basics of political analysis.
Dear Dumbass @ 32 – Try taking a broader statistical analysis from the primary vs the small number of people that showed up at the caucuses. Go to the secretary of state’s website to see how many people chose to vote in a contest that meant absolutely nothing. Far more than people that went to the caucus. The caucuses generally appeal to people that are entrenched.
But again, back to that Secretary of State website, do you see how many counties have gone to Clinton? Do you see how far different the vote percentages are from the caucuses? Do you see how many MORE people have voted on a county by county basis in this than the caucus?
If you’re trying to discern general public opinion from caucus results, it’s about as useful as trying to wipe your ass and discern general public opinion.
The primary is at least a little more discernable.
Darryl,
The fact that the state is well off is great but how does CG use this as a campaign tool?
Even if the state is OK, CG has little identification with the success.
I think this will depoend on Rossi’s strategey. If I were his adviser I would:
1. Do all I could to bgring Schwarznegger and MCain to the state.
2. Go negative on her for a lack of long term planning … the words dem bubble come to mind.
3. Celebrate Rossi’s Tlingit origins, talk about tradition and opportunity/ At the same time attack her for gender politics.
As for CG? She could imporve her chances by:
1. If HRC is the cand. AVOID dumbass gender politics.
2. Attack Rossi for a lack of admin experience and for his association with the nutright.
3. Focus in the future, invite both Obama and Clinton, announce plans for state wide exapansion of University sysytem.
4. Propose closer real time with BC.
5, Propose a state based immigration reform program. E.g. issue state immigrant worker card.