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House prices continue in free-fall.

In the past year the median sales price fell 13.2% — the largest decline since data collection began in 1968 and likely since the Great Depression — to $181,300. Separately, the Federal Housing Finance Agency reported that U.S. home prices fell 7.5% over the 12 months ending in October, according to a monthly index that includes prices for houses with mortgages that have been sold to or guaranteed by Fannie Mae… (or Freddie Mac.)

At The Big Picture, Barry Ritholtz observes:

I find the monthly spin from the NAR laughable. They attribute November’s results to a “weak stock market, job losses and low consumer confidence.” They never seem to recall that Real Estate prices remain too high relative to incomes and rental prices. This is the hangover from the credit bubble.

With the always necessary caveat that there are individual real estate agents and builders who are honest, stand-up individuals, the house building and selling industry bears a huge portion of the blame for this hellish economic mess. It strains credulity to think that the absurd loans and absurd prices came about without widespread criminality and malfeasance.

True capitalists will realize that effective regulation is required in the future. Of course, that won’t stop the stink tank denizens from railing against all things governmental, but I still fail to understand why progressives have to be the only pragmatists.

There needs to be a dramatic change in the zeitgeist in this state and country that defines conservatives in terms of their outdated, delusional and dangerous preconceptions about economics. It’s kind of sunk in, but not widely enough. Neo-liberalism was not only wrong, it failed so miserably that I wouldn’t be surprised if historians someday equate it with the demise of Soviet Communism.

The bidness guys and gals have sneered at everyone for so long, with such utter contempt, that this is the perfect time to teach certain corrupt industries that the government is there to protect all the people, including consumers of major purchases like houses. I mean, you buy a car you get a warranty, you buy a house, well, you know, good luck with that! You should have known the plumbing contractor hired summer help and inspected each pipe yourself before you bought it, and you should have waited out the housing bubble even though you like, needed a place to live.

When the corrupt industry starts its facile whining that they are being “punished” and promise doom and gloom forever, as they do with any proposed regulation whatsoever, they can be sternly reminded that basic consumer rights are not a punishment, they are a normal way to regulate industries that have proven they can’t be trusted. And right now there is no industry more untrustworthy than the house building, selling and finance industry. If restoring the house market requires restoring consumer confidence, reform at both the state and national level is urgently required, seeing as we’re throwing trillions of our dollars at the problem.

Hard times in newspaperin’ everywhere:

Less than a year after moving into a new building downtown, The Columbian newspaper’s newsroom and business staff will return this weekend to its former headquarters in an effort to cut costs.

The newspaper is looking for a buyer for the new building, and the asking price is $41.5 million.

But the threat of bankruptcy — mentioned in October when the building move was announced — appears to have subsided.

Editor Lou Brancaccio is taking stock in the spirit of the season:

I am grateful for those who oppose us and say bad things about us. Does this sound strange to some of you? It shouldn’t. Of course I’m most grateful for those who criticize us in a constructive way. Still, I accept those who simply are bitter. It takes all kinds to make the world go around. Ironically, it is the free press that has helped to guarantee that their bitterness is heard.

Meanwhile the editorial staff itself is brimming over with holiday joy:

Jeers: To the close-minded, agenda-anchored über-liberals who are castigating Barack Obama for inviting Pastor Rick Warren to deliver the invocation at the inauguration on Jan. 20.

Warren’s allies in California are spreading Christianist love all over the court system, with the help of none other than Ken Starr:

The sponsors of Proposition 8 on Friday argued for the first time that the court should undo the marriages of the estimated 18,000 same-sex couples who exchanged vows before voters banned gay marriage at the ballot box last month

Nice.

Look, if Obama wants to call Rick Warren in for a nice chat about why the fuck Rick Warren and his fundamentalist allies think it’s legitimate to revoke people’s basic civil rights, fine. They can talk all they want.

That’s not what’s happening. Warren will be delivering the invocation at the inauguration, with all the attendant symbolism that entails.

Progressives have a moral duty to point out what Rick Warren and his ilk actually stand for, and it’s not a pretty picture, all the glossy trappings aside. If it makes editors feel better to harrumph and snort about how middle-of-the-road they are, also fine, but they’re missing the entire point.

[NOTE:  I’m not sure what happened, but the server burped and I lost this post, and all its comments.  Strange.  So please add your comments to the thread again.]

With a budget battle brewing in what will be one of the most consequential legislative sessions in years, the number of journalists covering our state government has plummeted:

During the past 15 years, the state population has increased by 25 percent and the amount of tax money spent by the state has more than doubled. Yet the number of print, television and radio journalists covering the state Legislature full time has dropped by about 70 percent.

[…] In 1993, there were 34 journalists covering the Washington state Legislature. By 2007, there were 17. This year, there may be as few as 10 full-time journalists, mostly newspaper reporters.

We are facing the prospect of a huge hole in political coverage, with potentially devastating results for our state’s citizenry, but it’s also an opportunity for new media to rise to the task and help fill the void.  I thought about heading down to Olympia myself for the session, or hiring some youngster at slave wages to do it for me, but what’s really needed is a seasoned reporter who knows the ropes.  You know… like Josh Feit, who has been covering the Capitol for years.

The problem, of course, is the money.  It’ll cost HA about $15,000 in salary and expenses to pay Josh to cover this four month session… and that’s on top of the money I ultimately need to raise to support myself.  And I’d like to hear from you, my readers, whether you think it is worth it?

I don’t expect to raise all, or even most of the money in an online fund drive; I’m pursuing larger commitments from individuals and interest groups eager to see more in depth coverage of the coming session while promoting the growth of independent media.  But it all starts with your support.

So let me know what you think about these ambitious plans, and we’ll move on from there.

Worst since 1994.

The mood of uncertainty was evident in a local report this week showing that only 318 new and pre-owned houses sold in Clark County in November. That’s down 37.3 percent from the 507 home sales in the same month last year. November’s total was the lowest for that month since 1994, according to “benchmarks,” a tracking service of Vancouver’s Riley & Marks appraisal firm.

“Uncertainty” is probably the key word, as the article explores somewhat. How bad are job losses ultimately going to be? Will interest rates be set at 4.5%? Who knows?

Oligarchs win, workers lose.

Tribune’s board was advised by a group of bankers from Citigroup and Merrill Lynch, which walked off with $35.8 million and $37 million, respectively. But those banks played both sides of the deal: they also lent Mr. Zell the money to buy the company. For that, they shared an additional $47 million pot of fees with several other banks, according to Thomson Reuters. And then there was Morgan Stanley, which wrote a “fairness opinion” blessing the deal, for which it was paid a $7.5 million fee (plus an additional $2.5 million advisory fee).

On top of that, a firm called the Valuation Research Corporation wrote a “solvency opinion” suggesting that Tribune could meet its debt covenants. Thomson Reuters, which tracks fees, estimates V.R.C. was paid $1 million for that opinion. V.R.C. was so enamored with its role that it put out a press release.

Unbelievable. Obviously no sector is immune from shoddy practices and insane financial contortions.

My crystal ball is at the state capitol protesting atheism by showing “It’s a Wonderful Life” on a loop, but some wags are predicting there is going to be a major US city without a daily newspaper in the near future.

Before anyone breaks out the champagne, they might want to consider all those people in suits and pantsuits who walk around city halls and state capitols hatching all sorts of schemes under less scrutiny now than they deserve. The idea of a major US city being “watch dogged” mostly by local television reporters should send shivers down the spine of any citizen. Not every crooked mayor is going to be carrying a puppy around.

We are going to have a president who will side with regular folks.

President-elect Barack Obama said that union workers in Chicago who are protesting their factory’s sudden closure with a sit-in are justified in demanding their benefits and pay.

“I think they’re absolutely right,” Obama said today in response to a question at a Chicago news conference. “And understand that what’s happening to them is reflective of what’s happening across this economy.”

Obama, who gave up his Illinois Senate seat last month after the Nov. 4 election, was asked at a press conference today to weigh in on the protest at Chicago’s Republic Windows & Doors factory, which closed on Dec. 5 after Bank of America canceled its line of credit.

Obviously one could dream up a scenario where a president has to make a tough call that involves compromise. The real world is not simple, nor is it perfect.

But here we have Obama siding with workers who are simply demanding what is theirs. That is a profound change.

You never know how history will shake out when you are living it. But the workers at Republic Windows and Doors deserve not only their pay, but the thanks of the entire country for standing up to the corporate oligarchy. Who knows what their action will inspire? The financial sector thieves who brought this mess upon all our heads need to be held accountable, for starters.

As Robert Reich points out here, under-employment is yet more yucky icing on a very nasty cake of unemployment figures. (Okay, Reich is far more eloquent and would never likely come up with such a pathetic analogy.) But still–yikes. From Bloomberg:

More Americans than ever worked only partial days in November as the deepening recession prompted companies to cut full-time employment.

The number of Americans saying they worked part-time last month due to economic reasons — either because their hours were cut or they couldn’t find full-time jobs — surged to 7.32 million, the most since records began in 1955, from 6.7 million in October, the Labor Department reported today.

The increase in part-time workers helped prevent the jobless rate — which rose to 6.7 percent last month from 6.5 percent in October — from climbing even more. Counting part- timers who would prefer full-time work, as well as discouraged workers who are no longer looking for jobs, the jobless rate would have jumped to 12.5 percent from 11.8 percent in October.

And to answer the question Reich asks in the title of his post, um yeah, it’s a Depression. I know it’s a matter of semantics, but since Karl Rove and Karen Hughes are busily trying to re-write history even as it happens, I think it’s only fair we get Bush’s name attached to this last bitter pill.

I propose we call it the “Bush Financial Depression,” at least for now. Hopefully it will not become Great Depression II. If things get that bad nothing can save one shred of the Bush-Cheney legacy.

At this point it’s not about blame. It’s about not listening in the future to people who have been clearly and repeatedly wrong about every last damn thing, military, economic and diplomatic. Basically, when a Republican opens their mouth, a traditional journalist should have a mental checklist about how many times that person has been utterly and completely wrong. Eight long years of right wing fantasy have led us to this point, and fantasy is something we can no longer afford.

So when you hear that state and local governments are facing tough times, this is what it means to communities. From The Columbian’s Michael Andersen:

What will change the most?

Probably public health, code enforcement, drug and mental health treatment and (don’t scoff) the county’s internal computer team.

The public health department will change radically, laying off a third of its staff by the end of 2009 and instead trying to recruit nonprofits to do the same work for less pay. The county will lose three of its seven code enforcement officers. Nobody knows yet where the cuts will come in drug and mental health treatment, because they depend on state decisions next year. And with five positions cut from the computer team, all the county’s computers will crash more and employees won’t be trained as well in using computers.

Will any county services improve?

The county sheriff’s road patrols will add four new deputy positions in 2010. The sheriff says that’s not enough to keep up with the population, so it’s an open question.

One thing worth noticing is that large portions of relatively urban areas are not incorporated in Clark County. We’re basically an unincorporated city being governed by county government, replete with all the resulting tension between urban and rural needs.

This area includes Salmon Creek, Felida and Hazel Dell, if you know the geography here. Lots of houses, schools and shopping areas were built in these places in the last fifteen years, but because of historical animosity towards Vancouver, the odds are the city will never be able to annex. Past efforts to form a separate city have failed miserably.

So we’re stuck being governed by a three-member county commission, the same system of government that we had at statehood. Right now control of that body is technically still in doubt as we await the results of an automatic recount in a county commission race, a recount which is being held up by a computer glitch. Most observers expect, though, that Republican Tom Mielke will hang on to win by about 200 votes.

We have all the challenges of other urbanized areas: traffic, crime, a need for more family wage jobs, etc. But our form of government is the same as when everyone grew peaches for a living. Don’t know if there were a ton of untreated mentally ill folks wandering around peach orchards back in the day, but it looks like one possible future for life in Clark County. Such are the costs of the Bush Depression.

Gov. Chris Gregoire and AG Rob McKenna have just issued a joint, bipartisan statement on Bill O’Reilly’s manufactroversy over the atheist display in the state Capitol:

“Last year, after a federal lawsuit was filed against the state of Washington by the Alliance Defense Fund, the state’s Department of General Administration set forth a policy allowing individuals or groups to sponsor a display regardless of that individual’s or group’s views.

“The Legislative Building belongs to all citizens of Washington state, and houses the state Legislature, as well as the offices of several state-elected executives, including the governor. The U.S. Supreme Court has been consistent and clear that, under the Constitution’s First Amendment, once government admits one religious display or viewpoint onto public property, it may not discriminate against the content of other displays, including the viewpoints of non-believers.”

So there you have it.  I guess my pseudo-legal analysis of the issue was basically right.

It’s a shame that even their communications staffs had be distracted by bullshit like this when there are issues of so much greater import to address, but apparently the’ve been fielding hundreds of phone calls—mostly from out of state—after O’Reilly attempted to bully the governor by posting her phone number on national television.

Whatever.

Both Gregoire and McKenna have more important things to do, and if I were them I wouldn’t pay any more attention to Billo and his annual War on Christmas bluster.

“It’s official:”

… for the last year, the United States economy has been in recession.

No shit, Sherlock.

Of course the “nonpartisan” National Bureau of Economic Research waited until after the election to make the pronouncement.  You know, God forbid accurate information influence an election one way or the other.

Dollars to donuts it doesn’t take a year to announce the end of the recession.

I know I’m supposed to be angry and offended and all that, but I kinda agree with Paul Krugman:

A thought I’ve had: there have been some complaints from movement progressives about the centrism/orthodoxy of Obama’s economics appointments. To some extent this was unavoidable, I think: someone like the Treasury secretary has to be an experienced hand who can deal with Wall Street, and I haven’t heard anyone proposing particular individuals with clearer progressive credentials to hold that position.

And couple thoughts of my own.  First, for all the wailing and gnashing of teeth about the Obama administration looking like a retread of the Clinton administration, with the very notable exception of the growth in economic disparity, the Clinton administration did a pretty good job managing the economy, transforming record deficits into record surpluses, and presiding over one of the strongest economic expansions in recent history.

But it’s also important to note that these are smart people, and it would be a mistake to expect Obama’s economic appointees to attempt to duplicate the policies of 1992.  A lot has changed over the past 16 years, a lot of mistakes were made (in both administrations), and a lot of lessons have been learned.

While the Clintonistas, under the direction of Robert Rubin, focused on balancing the budget, Obama’s appointees, many of whom are Rubin protegees, have made it clear that economic stimulus will be the top priority, even at the cost of massive deficit spending.  Indeed, even Rubin has publicly stated his support of job creation now, and balanced budgets later.

So no, I’m not all too concerned with the centrist bent of Obama’s Rubinesque economic team.  Smart, accomplished, well intentioned people… that’s always a good start.

In the previous post, Goldy speculates about federal money flowing to the states as part of a broader spending package, and specifically about whether Gov. Chris Gregoire is headed to D.C. to advocate for such spending. The answer surely is: maybe!

At Political Buzz, Joe Turner wonders if we will see a return to revenue sharing, where the feds don’t put strings on things.

When I started covering Pierce County government in 1981, cities and counties were still getting no-strings-attached money from Uncle Sam. According to Wikipedia, revenue sharing existed from 1972 (the last bad recession) until 1987. It lost favor under President Reagan.

But it appears to be making a comeback, and Washington state workers no doubt will rejoice if it does. Basically, the federal government gives cities, counties and states money to pretty much what they please. That means Gov. Chris Gregoire and the Legislature could head off some of those layoffs that probably are in their future.

I watched Obama’s press conference this morning; there are not a lot of details yet. Basically the message seems to be “if it works, great, if it doesn’t work, it’s gone.” Another point seemed to be that spending at the state level is fine, but it has to be part of a national economic game plan.

So I’m expecting Obama’s team to come up with plans to get money out to the states, but not necessarily without strings. I’m just guessing, but increasing block grants might be another way to go. A short term aid package for states to cover existing shortfalls would make sense, however. There’s really no sense in heightening unemployment misery by ignoring what’s happening at the state and local level.

There’s a little bit of a clue about what might happen in this article from Stateline:

Obama didn’t specifically mention states or a dollar-figure in his remarks over the weekend or during his Nov. 24 press conference in which he unveiled his economic team, including New York Federal Reserve President Tim Geithner as treasury secretary. But before he was elected, Obama called for at least $25 billion in nonspecific state relief and another $25 billion to help states build and fix highways, roads, bridges, airports and rail systems.

Honestly, this is why we want smart, qualified people running the government, instead of anti-intellectual stink tank cretins and talk show hosts. It actually does matter, a lot, what happens next. A good plan might get us through the next few years with a lot of economic pain, but with recovery on the horizon. A bad plan, well, you know. It would be very bad.

We’re all free to raise questions and kick things around, as we should in a democracy, but we need as many good ideas we can get right now. There are still a few conservative voices out there warning about over-spending, and at least that’s a legitimate concern to raise if it’s done in a sincere fashion.

The consensus seems to be we simply must have a large stimulus package, though, and we’ll have to sort out how to pay for it both as we go and in the future.

One thing Obama seemed to be getting at this morning was that wasteful pork will really have to be axed this time. No more cheap talk. You can count on the noise machine to wail mightily if anyone starts pointing out the horrendous inefficiencies in the Defense Department, for example, but as Obama said this morning, every part of the federal budget must be examined.

If the Obama team can focus like a laser beam on getting the most “bang for their stimulus buck,” as they say they are doing, it should help. At this point I could care less if the good ideas come from progressives, moderates, conservatives or little green men from Mars.

I doubt anyone can know how much it might help, but the desperation apparent in this move should be obvious. From Bloomberg:

The U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve will unveil as soon as today a lending program to shore up the consumer-finance market, using money from the government’s $700 billion rescue, two people familiar with the effort said.

The Treasury and the Fed will help fund new loans packaged into securities for sale to investors, the people said. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, who scheduled a press conference for 10 a.m. New York time, said two weeks ago that he wants to spur lending for automobile purchases and college education while also reducing the cost of credit-card debt.

If we really need something like a half trillion dollar (or more) in stimulus spending per year, as learned economists seem to be suggesting everywhere, taking some of the leftover $700 billion and using it to provide cheap loans sounds pretty much like a Band-Aid. Consumer confidence is completely shattered. Hard to see how it improves auto sales much. Maybe people pay off some credit cards and take some classes.

But, it is something. The Fed can’t lower interest rates to any effect, so what the heck.

Republican incumbent Commissioner of Public Lands Doug Sutherland has finally conceded the race to Democratic challenger Peter Goldmark.

In a phone call to The Daily World this morning, Sutherland said he was disappointed with the loss, which he blamed on the voters of King County.

“At this juncture, the people of King County have spoken,” Sutherland said. “As a rule of thumb for Republicans, you do well in the rest of the state and do at least 40 percent in King County and you can win. It’s been that way for the last couple of decades and it’s just getting worse.”

Yeah, well, it’s an odd thing about America, but we tend to apportion votes by the person rather than the square mile, and, well, King County is where the largest chunk of the people live.  In fact, while Goldmark only won five of 39 counties, those five counties still account for about 45% of the electorate, so it wasn’t nearly as narrow a win as Sutherland bitterly makes it out to be.

Still, to Sutherland’s credit, he did concede only two weeks after the election, which is about three years, eleven and a half months quicker than Dino Rossi.

Shorter John Laird, editorial page editor for The Columbian: it’s all George W. Bush’s fault.

Still, if Clark County is red, how do we explain Barack Obama carrying the county by 6 percentage points? That question is easy to answer. This result doesn’t say nearly as much about Obama or about Clark County as it says about President George W. Bush. In fact, I suspect a lot of America’s breathless infatuation over Obama might actually be — deep down — an opinion about Bush.

If my theory is correct, then Bush’s drop in local popularity has been dramatic, almost pathetic. He carried the county by 5.4 percentage points in 2004 and by 4 points in 2000.

For what it’s worth, there is likely a kernel of truth there, as “Brand Republican” has been severely damaged, not only by Bush but by Republican extremism up and down the ticket. This is a hard blow for some Republicans, who seem to invest an inordinate amount of psychic energy in being perceived as the dominant tribe. A lot of the rash and uncivil statements emanating from the conservative noise machine are likely the product of this slightly strange fetishization.

For several cycles now a prominent local Republican Party activist has been repeatedly quoted in the newspaper saying, essentially, that Clark County is a Republican county. This was never all that true, as effective Democratic candidates like Brian Baird and Craig Pridemore, and many others, were elected to office. Candidates with good name ID (especially incumbents) always do well most places, especially here in a county dominated by media from another state. There’s a good reason the landscape is dominated by 4 x 8 political signs during election season.

Clark is a suburban swing county overall, with predictable party trends in the more urban and rural areas. Incumbents are hard to beat, meaning most of the big battles are over open seats. In that regard, the Democrats picked up a state House seat in the “swingy” 17th LD with the victory of Tim Probst, and might or might not pick up a county commissioner seat pending a likely recount. The more rural 18th LD is completely a lost cause as it is currently drawn, and the opposite is true in the urban 49th LD.

So the real issue for Democrats here is how to continue recruiting quality candidates who will be in position to take advantage of open seats.

Correction– Technically, Democrats would not be picking up a county commission seat in Clark County if Democrat Pam Brokaw defeats Republican Tom Mielke after a recount, as the retiring incumbent is Betty Sue Morris, D-BIAW. But in real world terms it would be a pickup for Democrats if Brokaw won.