Kshama Sawant’s District 3 seat was supposed to be easy pickings in November, 2015. I wouldn’t exactly call it conventional wisdom, but a lot of Democratic establishment types sure seemed to have convinced themselves that the socialist city council member was a wacky, one-hit wonder who voters would quickly tire of. The chamber was preparing to spend big to take her down, and serious candidates like the ACLU’s Alison Holcomb were being recruited. This was going to be easy.
Well, not so fast. As PubliCola reported last week, a new poll by respected firm EMC shows Sawant with some of the highest approval ratings on the council. Citywide, Sawant enjoys a 50 percent “favorable” rating, second only to Nick Licata’s 51 percent. And within her district, Sawant’s favorable stands at a remarkable 61 percent, well above Licata’s 46 percent second place showing.
Critics will point out that at 30 percent citywide and 21 percent within District 3, Sawant also has the highest unfavorable rating. But at 80/82 percent city/district, she also has the highest name ID as well. Voters know Sawant. And despite all the Democratic eye-rolling, they’ve overwhelmingly made up their mind in her favor.
Personally, I was never all that concerned. District 3 was Sawant’s best district in her 2013 at-large victory, and while she might not match the chamber’s war chest, she’d certainly be able to raise the $250,000-plus necessary to get her message out. From everything I’ve heard, Democratic efforts to peel labor support away from Sawant have so far proven fruitless. And of course, everybody continues to underestimate the impressive (and increasingly sophisticated) ground game that Socialist Alternative is putting together. Really.
A lot can change in a year. But there’s an argument to make that at this point in time, Sawant looks like the least vulnerable incumbent of them all.
As an aside to that slightly curious polling data, they initially had Councilperson Jean Godden listed near the top of the favorables and then she unaccountably vanished from the chart. (possibly expressing some additional long term bias in Publicola reporting there)
What a shock: the people of District 3 actually want someone to stand up for them against corporate power in City Hall! Nobody would have expected that. Well, nobody except people who actually know District 3 (like you and me).
Hmm, looks like Big Money Capitalism ain’t so popular anymore after inflicting carnage on most of America’s 300 million+ inhabitants. Meanwhile, Republicans look set to blow their third try in three elections at gaining a Senate majority:
“Republicans may have succeeded in dragging down Democrats and putting the Senate within their reach by denying Obama legislative victories and resisting compromise. But the damage they did to themselves in the process may ultimately leave them empty-handed. Again.”
http://www.realclearpolitics.c.....z3Ghi861qF
Their problem? It seems 3 “red state” seats that everyone expected to be lockups are in play. For the usual lame reasons — scandals, idiot candidates, stupid behavior. It’s conceivable the Democrats could win all 3 of those seats. Which means even if GOPers win all 7 seats pollsters expect them to pick up, they’ll still fall 2 short. If they do, nobody should be surprised; what’s truly surprising is that ANY voters still vote for the Party of Crazy.
I’m not crazy about Sawant (Trotskyites are not my flavor of socialist) but her presence on the council is a very good thing. Democrats have spent the last 30+ years drifting to the right or into corporate pockets in reaction to Republican attacks. The Overton Window has shifted so far to the right that liberal dems can scarcely be distinguished from (now extinct) moderate Republicans.
Only pressure from the left, no matter how impractical or improbable, will shift the Democrats out of their current stasis of being the lesser evil. With enough leftward pressure maybe we can return to 1964.
Sawant has proven herself to be the most effective council member. She is setting the agenda for Seattle. That is why she is polling so well; she is effective, she gets stuff done, she speaks for people who have felt marginalized politically and she speaks plainly and truthfully about issues that matter. I wish we had many, many more like her.
I live in the 5th, so I can’t vote for her this time, but I will be donating to her campaign again. ( I donated $100.00 last time)
There are two candidates so far in the 5th, both of which appear to hold promise; a local pastor with a long history of advocacy for the homeless and social justice issues, and a young affordable housing activist.
If Rasmussen and Clark can be forced out, we can make some real progress in Seattle.
Not surprising considering how many Socialist/Communists dwell in Stalingr…err…Seattle.
She is the one city councilpersons whose name someone outside of Seattle might know. Mentioning her name up here in Whatcom county to pols would be fun, unless they are the few that hang out at the granges.
There is plenty of room in America for socialists especially at the local level. It’s a shame that the red scare was so effective and disregarded their contributions particularly in a state where they nearly had a majority in the legislature and could not be ignored by their democratic brothers and sisters, though they did play politics too, and may have overplayed their hand.
I guess Holcomb’s husband is just going to have to close his upscale restaurant and move the family to Oklahoma City, where he can afford to hire waitstaff and cooks.
What’s the margin of error for this poll within each of the 7 council districts? A citywide poll may have a low margin of error, but divide the data by 7 and that margin goes up substantially.