The Seattle P-I has a short report on what to expect from the dueling legal teams in Dino Rossi’s contest of the gubernatorial election: “Strategies in governor’s contest now clearer.” Actually, I think the strategies have been clear for some time, but the article does a nice job of summarizing the issues, and concluding that the GOP’s hopes may hinge on whether Judge Bridges accepts their “proportional analysis” argument.
One possible line of attack they have sketched out is what Lane calls proportional analysis. The idea is this: If Precinct A cast 60 percent of its votes for Gregoire and 40 percent for Rossi, but it turns out that 10 votes from there were illegal, the court can assume that six of those votes were for Gregoire and four for Rossi and deduct those amounts from their respective totals.
Given that most of the 1,000-plus supposed illegal votes the GOP has rounded up so far came from King County, where Gregoire beat Rossi by 58 percent to 40 percent (amounting to a 155,000-vote difference), that strategy holds lots of appeal for the Republicans. And that’s one reason they’re trying to dig up as many illegal votes as they can.
Personally, I could see a court accepting such an approach if the number of disputed ballots were massive compared to the margin of victory. For example, if there were 10,000 illegal votes in heavily Democratic King County (and nothing to offset them in Republican strongholds) I could understand a court ruling that a 129-vote margin just can’t hold up to scrutiny.
I could even understand the court applying proportional analysis to a much smaller number, if there was clear evidence of that these votes were the result of organized fraud or misconduct.
But such statistical analyses become much less useful the smaller the sample data set, and I just can’t imagine the court accepting such an approach with the number of illegal votes reported thus far. It would be inaccurate to proportion votes based on countywide margins, as different precincts produce dramatically different results. Yet when you deconstruct the analysis to the precinct level, it is statistically meaningless to proportion one or two votes per precinct.
Of course the Republican’s case has always been more of an emotional appeal than a legal one, hoping that public outrage might undermine Gregoire if not sway the courts. But their pleadings are increasingly being met with cynicism in the court of public opinion as well, with a recent Elway Poll showing that 63 percent of voters now say we should accept the results of the election and move on, and 74 percent agreeing that there is always going to be some error.
And move on we shall. Today, Governor Gregoire will introduce the first draft of her budget proposal, which I fully expect to include about $500 million in tax and fee increases, along with over a billion dollars in cuts and other savings. Rather than being cowed by Republican anger over the election, she appears to be reacting to the pragmatic reality that maintaining government services at the level taxpayers clearly demand, requires raising revenues commensurate with those demands.
Now if only we can get her to consider structural changes that will eliminate these shortfalls in the future, instead of just the stopgap measures we’re likely to see in the current budget.
UPDATE:
Well, it looks like I overestimated the tax increases. Gregoire has proposed a little over $200 million, coming from a $0.20 per pack hike in the cigarette tax, and reimposing the estate tax on non-farm estates worth over $2 million. More on the budget later.
Our Patriach, Dino will prevail in the election lawsuit – queen christine can’t escape with a stolen election!!!!!!!
WTF? “Horatio Claudius”?
go back to soundpolitics where you belong
Elections in every Democrat controlled cities are fixed and crooked. In addition, any black district that votes Democrat at 115% of registration is exempt from any investigation due to threats of “racism”. Democrats: domestic terrorists.
When does the cigarette tax give diminishing returns, especially with the looming smoking ban? There comes a point on the bell curve where people simply will not pay it. Isnt this a regressive tax as liberals label it? It is a backdoor play for general increases… Watch.
angryvoter, the whole point is to tax cigarettes out of existence…the governor is not proposing general increases. You watch. If she was going to push for general increases they would have been included in the budget by now.
And if cigarette usage decreases due to higher taxes, reducing tax revenues, the resulting savings on healthcare due to a healthier population will likely offset the losses and still result in a net gain. Although I have not seen any studies to this effect, it makes sense.
Right, Wayne. Smoking cigarettes is bad for your health and it’s bad for the health of others around you. Higher cigarette costs mean cigarettes aren’t as affordable, which leads to decreased use. This cuts down on smokers and secondhand smoke and thus reduces healthcare costs.
Healthcare costs are of course a huge issues in the state budget.
And the taxes mommy state collects on them are a huge source of revenue mommy cna’t/won’t give up. You might even say mommy state is addicted to ciggy taxes.
What a bunch of hypocritical two-faced hooey.
please site ONE case where second hand smoke literally KILLED another human.
As I figured, she runs on a no new tax base, posts it on her web site all through the election cycle, keeps chanting it, then after becoming governor she loses it and wants over 200 mil more. No surprise! Watch for internet sales to pick up and they will be losing money overall! I am happy since they will lose their majority after the BS they have been ramming down these days. Keep it up, we won’t even have to campaign!
Judge Bridges did not dismiss the case. you sure sound as nervous as Julia Patterson and Ron Sims.
The bottom line from every Democrat regarding this stolen election is; “STFU, we won, the ends justify the means” The only problem is they got what they wanted: Mini-Hillary as the new Dem standard-bearer!
You guys… your anger is beginning to get funny.
It’s Democrats who should be pissed about this budget. The $200 million is nothing… $130 million from simply not allowing the state estate tax to go away because the federal government is doing away with theirs, and $70 million from tobacco.
If she had not proposed this piddling amount of new revenue, you’d have attacked her for something else.
Chardonnay @11,
Projecting again?
Will the cig tax actually decrease the use if cigs? I doubt it.
Will folks find a way to get their cigs at a lower cost? BELIEVE IT.
Will the projected amount of revenue actually get collected? I doubt that too.
Will they spent it all on cig related issues? NO (Can you say general fund? I knew you could.)
Remember the water crisis awhile back? We conserved and what happened? The cost of water went up.
This is the 1st step in the same process. Once the projected funds from cig tax doesn’t come in, something else will get tagged for an increase. (Pop and Potato Chips?)
We don’t need new taxes, we need total accountablity of what is actually spent by the state, and an appropriate modification of the budget.
Oh Yeah, Lost Federal Funds: Any program that needs federal matching or suppl funds is fiscally mismanaged. If you REALLY want a program you’ll REALLY fund it FULLY.
What a surprise the inbred government workers taking care of their own. [DON’s Work Schedule!]
95% of State workers are on defacto welfare.
Typical Government Workers day…
09:00 – 11:30 – Coffee break chit chat, talk about how you are underpaid
11:30 – 14:30 – Lunch, maybe a movie
14:30 – 14:45 – Coffee break, talk about how hard you are working.
14:45 – 15:30 – Daily Status Meeting, talk about all the work you should do
15:30 – 16:00 – Coffee break, complain that your computers are 1 year old
16:00 – 17:00 – Fill out time cards, make it look like youve done something
Beating a dead horse? There’s gotta be a way to prosecute him for that! Cruelty to animals? Desecrating the departed? Mutilation? Where’s Norm Maleng when we really need him.
P.S., looks like the troll @ 3 has been drinking Maui Wowie before lunch again. Oh well, he can always think of it as drinking after midnight, instead of drinking before lunch.
A. I dont smoke
B. I dont care if you tax them $100 a pack
C. The people who purchase them for consumption do
D. At a certain point, your returns diminish on this tax
I dont disagree that less people smoking will eventually lower health care costs and therefore less state dollars into heathcare. However, the return rate will be very slow on this and it is likely that the hard core who will not kick the habit will simply go to the reservation and buy tax free. Bottom line, it is not a stable revenue source. Likewise, niether are the one time revenue grabs from other accounts. It is like cashing out your 401 to pay for groceries or gas. You eat well and drive far today, but may be hungry and without mobility the next.
JCH@15-
You forgot about all the time Guv’mint workers spend blogging.
Well, I suppose they do most of it during the 3 hour lunch break and during their scheduled “bitching times”. Never mind–
char @ 9
Leave it to Char to whitewash second-hand smoke. Next thing you know she’ll tell us bombing is good for Iraqi babies. For those of you able to get past reflexive knee jerking and would like to know why second-hand smoke is really, really bad for babies, children, adults, and other living things here’s a link to get you started. http://abrannen.home.mindsprin.....second.htm
Sean @ 5
I agree with your premise on the taxing them out of exsistence and think it would be great. However, having worked a few sessions in Olympia(9), I understand the South Sound Shuffle well. It goes like this, propose a budget with little hope for passage or sustainability, sit back watch the hand wringing begin, work it behind the scenes to get what you really want, throw your hands up, claim you tried and then go in for the kill. It is a very old budgeting tactic, in fact I remember it from Public Administration 101.
Bottom line, the only thing this state is more addicted to than tobbaco, is tobbaco money. Get the state out of the tobbaco business.
Well as I heard a Cigar Shop owner say, every time they raise taxes on Cigars and tabacco, the shop sees a loss in revenue due to people going to the internet to buy them. I don’t know many cigar smokers who have not already made that leap. So keep on raising those sin taxes CG, and you will (like any economics professor with half a brain can can tell you) only reduce revenue, not gain it. Keep it up and you will have no revenue coming in!
Most businesses in this state are shedding workers because of all the new D programs they are being required to provide. People in this state are either loosing their jobs or getting their wages and benefits slashed (not to mention retirement plans (airlines and others) being thrown out the door).
But State workers now they are a special bunch because they always get raises! That is a great way to reduce expenses, giving all these pay raises!
JCH @ 15-
You forgot about guv’mint workers “blogging” time.
Oh, I guess they squeeze it in during their 3-hr. lunch time OR their “bitching about their plight” time.
Never mind–
Let’s “smoke out” the Budget BS starting with the fact that Gregoire fails to fully fund State Pensions leaving it up to future Governors to deal with an “underfunded liability”.
You ought to be concerned Don. What, no?? No glory in funding pension liabilities is there Don?!!
I expected a “smoke-and-mirrors” shell-game approach and guess what….we got it!
The devil is always in the detail.
This Budget is exceptionally political considering there will be another election in November, 2005 or 2006. Leave it to a LEFTIST to pull out funding smaller class sizes out of a multi-billion dollar budget to rationalize a tax increase on dead people and sinners!!
GS @ 21
If Wash. businesses are shedding workers how come employment is going up and unemployment is going down? Oh, I know the answer! You’re making that up! Silly me. Republicans make stuff up as they go along.
Cyn @ 23
No problem from my point of view. I’m in line ahead of you.
Whew! To hear these neo-nuts whine about it, you’d think the estate tax is a new idea. Wrong, we had an estate tax until a couple months ago, when the court threw it out on a technicality. Gregoire is proposing re-enacting about a third of it. That means she’s giving estate tax payers a 67% tax cut.
Oh yes Don, the employement in Washington is just supurb! Wonderful paying jobs with wonderful benefits and Retirement benefits to boot! Just like Goverment benefits! Silly me! I stand corrected! I have learned from a Democrat how not to lie and cheat! Glory be!
Don@16:
I’m not really up on such things, but I think Maui Wowie is smoked, not drunk.
others @ many:
Since it is the opinion of the GOP, true or false, that we are taxed aplenty and the solution is to cut expenses, it’s time to start looking at where exactly these expenses are supposed to be cut.
The K-20 budget (approx. 50% of the total) is pretty miserly in terms of $/student on a national level. At $6750/student, we are down in the bottom third of per-student spending.
(source: http://nces.ed.gov/quicktables/Detail.asp?Key=994)
The social spending (~25%) is largely mandated by the Federal Government. As nice as it would be to promote a little Protestant backbone and let the needy help themselves, we can’t by federal law.
Transportation… Don’t get me started.
The egg timer is running, so as much as I’d like to write more, I can’t.
It’s easy to say we need to cut spending, and to make potshots at government employees. Try actually saying “This budget can be cut by eliminating these positions.” We had several years of Republican legislative control here, and it didn’t happen. Why? Not for lack of trying. The reality is, providing services does not happen for free. Posturing is easy. Governing is much harder.
QUACK QUACK QUACK…this Rossi quacks like a duck and looks like a duck…must be a Reducklican or is that Repugnican…why dosen’t he just go get a JOB somewhere and leave us the hell alone?
Cynical@18. I thought for a moment you were going to say, tax the bloggers. The cig tax will not end smoking or reduce use of cigs. Expresso tax is another one that will not end sipping caffine or reduce use of it. New tax is always turnoff but people do adapt You better pray they do not put a tax on bitching or you will be out of business.
Tax
Tax, and more tax! Always the solution to every problem! Tax the BS legislation coming out of this session and you would have a forever surplus!
@29. Maybe Rossi should hook up he with Nancy Drew. He just loves solving mysteries. Or he could write a big binder book called Mystery Voters. Sorry, in-house blog joke. Yes, if it walks like a duck, talks like a duck, it is a duck. A son-of-a-duck that can’t swim shouldn’t go wading in deep water.
If these 1,000 middle-managers are cut…what is the impact on the lives of the vast majority of Washington citizens??? ZERO!
How about 2,000 middle-managers cut? ZERO!
I get a kick out of LEFTISTS who fall for the “Chicken Little” the sky is falling every single time cuts are proposed.
My question is why only 1,000 middle-managers? Why not 1,001?
Let’s get back to the “essential” services of State Government rather than the “desired”.
Didn’t any of you LEFTISTS have parents who taught you the difference between NEEDS and WANTS???? I didn’t think so.
Most of the LEFTISTS are products of broken families or have created their own broken families! They are bitter, self-absorbed and……EDUCATED IDIOTS!
The court case in Chelan county is coming up next month,whether you like it or not ! My money says that many of you who post here won’t like the outcome ! Call it projecting – call it free speech also.
Raise the ciggie tax by $5 a pack, and tax estates at 100% above anything valued greater then $100,000. That will get attention.
Idiot @ 34 wow, that means if we are all educated idiots…you must be our dumber cousin
So if my calculations are correct CG has now got a 2005-2007 budget that is a whopping 11% higher than the previous 2003-2005 budget! Not much cutting apparent according to their own Budget comparison documents and charts:
http://www.ofm.wa.gov/budget05.....10page.pdf
2003-2005 Total State Gen Fund – 23,465,203,000
2005-2007 Total State Recommended Gen Fund – 25,824,025,000
11% increase – Gulp Gulp!
GS @ 32
Surpluses are bad? Deficits are good? I know, I know — borrow, and more borrow. Welcome to the brave new world. A few more years of Republican economics and they’ll have to make dollar bills smaller because the paper will be worth more than the denomination printed on it, and we’ll look on Argentina’s inflation rate with nostalgia.
Cynical @ 34
You remind me of some DSHS bureaucrats who were trying to nickel and dime a nursing home. Their theory was the n.h. could save money by eliminating supervisors. Nurses know what they’re doing, they don’t need to be supervised, right?
I was talking with one of my lawyer pals still working in state gov’t (he can’t afford to retire on PERS 1*) a couple days ago. We were discussing the growth in middle management positions in recent years. He says the reason for it is because of all the paperwork demanded by the federal gov’t. No paperwork, no federal money. (For those who don’t know, federal dollars are about 25% of the state’s total revenues.)
Gee, who is running things in Washington D.C.? Could it be the small-government, states-rights, conservative party? Nope, I don’t think so. Must be a bunch of big-government types.
And, as usual, Cynical is clueless about what’s going on — and who is causing it.
* The reason I could afford to retire on PERS 1 is because I have an employed spouse. There’s not a chance in hell I could live on my FAT gov’t pension without another income source.
KS @ 35
I think you’re right, and I think you’re gonna be one of ’em.
Don @ 41–
Who gives a shit!
You are still part of the problem…not the solution.
Don sucked up hard-working citizens tax dollars under the guise of “helping” someone.
To say the R’s are responsible for the bureaucratic goo that results in all these middle-management bureaucrats is “goofy”.
Take away the tax dollars and get the oinkers like Don off the trough.
Don–is your employed spouse an hombre?
Yup Just read em and weep:
http://seattletimes.nwsource.c.....et22m.html
Even the Seattle Times gets this one right this time.
Goldy,
Are you are the pathetic asshole I assume you to be?
I am curious, were you picked on as a kid? Frightened by a clown? No other kids in the neighborhood with play with you?
What caused the damage?
GS @ 27
You’re going to Hell anyway. Your repentence is too little, too late, and too insincere.
GS @ 32, 38
Gregoire proposed to re-enact only $129 million of the $431 million estate tax struck down by the supreme court, plus $73 million of tobacco taxes. That looks like a $279 million tax cut to me.
I haven’t had a chance to study her budget in detail yet, but I don’t think your numbers are right. The operating budget for the current biennium is in the $26 billion range, not $23 billion. And I don’t see how you get an 11% spending increase from a $279 million tax, given the state constitution prohibits deficit spending. Yes, there’s some revenue growth in there (from economic upswing) but not $3 billion worth or even $1 billion. I think your numbers are wrong, both as to amount of previous budget and percentage growth in new budget. It looks like a stand-still budget to me.
oops typo – meant to say “I don’t see how you get an 11% spending increase from a $279 million tax cut”
OK I am just looking at their numbers, on their State Website, and their spending this period is close 2.5 bil more in this budget period than the last – a 10% increse from the last budget cycle would be an aditional 2.35 billion. In Actual they are budgeting aprox 2.36 Billion in aditional spending with little to no cuts (as sited today in the front page of the Seattle Times web site. So suffice it to say it is a greater then 10% increase over the last budgeting cycle. I can’t make it any clearer than their own numbers
2003-2005 Total State Gen Fund – 23,465,203,000
2005-2007 Total State Recommended Gen Fund – 25,824,025,000
The cig. tax isn’t going to do anything but make folks buy the damn things from other states over the internet, or from Indian stores. Either way, smokers will smoke if they want to; it really isn’t lil Crissy’s decision to have to begin with. Amen. Thanks.
The correct bold headline should be: ‘SOME of the public ready to move on.’ Don’t say all public. That’s a false assumption. I don’t want to be in that boat, and in fact, I AM a member of the public as you all are as well; whether we agree on this issue, or disagree. Thanks.
If Wash. businesses are shedding workers how come employment is going up and unemployment is going down?>>>>>
Could be because we have been down for so long that it cannot help but go up….?????
I strongly agree with Marks comment. People who
want to smoke will just get their cigs someplace else where it’s cheaper.
There is really no way anybody can change that.
Larry Trocha
Larry Trocha Training Stable
Horse Training
So higher cigarette taxes mean lower health care costs and people live longer. Has anyone figure out how much its going to cost to care for those old people. Based on elder health care costs today alot more than smoking related illness.