From an article in yesterday’s NY Times about Karl Rove’s waning influence in the Republican Party, a tidbit that hints at what we should brace for here in our Washington over the next couple months:
They have determined that control of Congress is likely to be settled in as few as six states and have decided to focus most of the party’s resources there, said Republican officials who did not want to be identified discussing internal deliberations. Those states will likely include Connecticut, Indiana, Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Washington, though officials said the battle lines could shift in coming weeks.
If state Republicans seem blase about the tough races facing first term incumbent Representatives Dave Reichert and Cathy McMorris, and overly confident about their traction-less Senate nominee Mike?™ McGavick, that’s because they assume the RNC’s huge cash advantage will easily overwhelm and smother the electorate’s nascent unrest and distrust. And normally, that might be true.
But even though Democrats will be heavily outspent on both House races, and possibly even the Senate, there is a point of diminishing returns beyond which a blitz of advertising just becomes so much white noise. At least 3 to 4 million dollars will be spent on behalf of 8th CD challenger Darcy Burner, more than enough to get her name and message before voters, and if Peter Goldmark can meet his million dollar fundraising target while drawing in a modest amount of independent expenditures, that could be all he needs to catch fire in the less media saturated 5th CD. And as for the enigmatic Mike?™ McGavick, no amount of money is going to win him a Senate seat unless he manages to persuade voters exactly why they need to turn Sen. Maria Cantwell out… and exactly what legislative agenda he intends to pursue in her stead.
The important thing to take away from this tidbit is that Republicans intend to focus their resources on Washington state because they know their candidates here are vulnerable… they know that both Burner and Goldmark have a good shot at winning, and the RNC intends to crush their chances under a truckload of cash.
But don’t despair, because in this year, in this political climate and with these candidates, WA Dems don’t have to outspend their opponents to win, they just have to keep it relatively close. A challengers dollar simply buys more than that of an incumbent, thus the biggest thing you can do to contribute to Democratic chances to retake the House is to help our candidates get their message out by giving as much as you can afford to Burner and Goldmark.
The Republicans are willing to invest all they can in these races. Shouldn’t you?
With the idea of heading the Rep thugs off at the pass there’s a great post http://americablog.blogspot.com/ by John about how GOP declined to give Clinton tools to fight terrorism. Hatch & his ilk are outted by their own words and actions to be strong on political terrorism not national security. Ah, the PARTY OF FEAR exposed.
The party and independent expenditures are getting ridiculous- but that is what comes from driving money away from the campaigns themselves. It will be spent, and it will be less accounable as it is ran through party and independent expenditure committees.
Locally, we have cases where more money is being spent on behalf of a candidate outside the campaign, or as in-kind party expenditures, than is being raised and spent by the candidate.
Independent expenditures are reported relatively quickly here- but only when the expenditure is made, not when the funds are raised. And funds are passed from committee to committee to hide sources.
On the federal level, we’ll know the money is being dumped- on both sides- when we see the ads. And the ads will do nothing to raise the tone, or level, of the “debate” of the issues.
What we really need is a device that blocks the ads once our absentee ballot has been cast.
It is sad that, in deciding the direction of our country, money can have more say than a candidates views and positions on the ISSUES.
Perhaps the time has come for a “politcal” tax. A fund where each candidate is ginen the same amount to spend and that’s it. Maybe this would force them to take a stand on issues and not just feed us some feel good line like “Change for America”. I want to know what folks like Mike? think. So far, I have no idea where he stands (well, I know he stands next to a bar with no problem).
Remeber to watch “the path to 911” on ABC on September 10th & 11th at 7:00 pm CT. It will be educational.
Perhaps the time has come for a “politcal” tax.
Commentby My Left Foot [……Always a new tax from the “progressives”. Classic!]
Rufus: from what info has been put out on ABC’s docudistortion, I would instead think it best to let ABC get their audience from Bush’s 25% base instead, not from me.
A sad note. In eastern Wash state the Army’s Task Force Blaze which has been on loan to help fight wildfires has been returned to Ft Lewis where they will get ready to deploy to Iraq. The members of this Army Task Force were truly appreciated and they represent some of America’s best and brightest. We wish them Godspeed.
Don’t forget RIchard Wright in the 4th CD. Rep. Hastings is very tarred with Delay and other scandal. R money spent in the 4th isn’t being spent against Darcy
JCH @ 5
We are already able to designate money on our tax return forms to to the Presidential campaign matching funds program. Why not just increase the amount authorized and expand the fund to include Senate and Congressional races?
John Craig mocked my suggestion, be nice if he gave us an idea of his own, or even a cogent argument against it. My guess is that he might actually have to think, rather than rip off one of his infamous one liners.
there is a push for publicly funded campaigns. Go to
Just6dollars.org to find out about it
and contribute
8 continued
This can be done while preventing individuals and corporations from buying elections. Let them contribute to ONE fund that supports all candidates. How can they argue against fairness and issues? Equal footing. What a novel concept. People like JCH fear this because they know that when all things are equal, they will lose the power and influence they now enjoy and reap personal benefit from.
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Thank you, RWB.
I think at a strategic level the 06 elections all about keeping the Republicans pinned down, keeping them answering unconfortable questions and keeping them spending money. On the Democratic side the election should be all about seeing what’s possible. We’re seeing that some Republican seats that everyone thought were safe aren’t so safe and we’re seeing that people like Joe! aren’t as popular or as untouchable as we’ve been told they were.
Big picture think we don’t know what the playing looks like. Maybe 06 should be about figuring that out.
2
I’d love to see one of those if it worked on pledge drives too.
Left Foot- and others- you are missing the point. It isn’t the candidates expenditures that are the problem- it is all of the party and independent expenditures- unlimited, uncontrolled, and unregulated. Public financing of campaigns won’t change that- you’ll still have those mass amounts of money that are unlimited, uncontrolled, and unregulated.
At least when money is flowed through a candidate’s campaign, the candidate can be held responsible for how it is used- the message that is delivered. The independent expenditures- from both sides- have just driven us deeper into the muck.
Carl, Here in Hawaii, the Dems control everything [exception: a great Governor Lingle [BTW, Jewish female, and truely outstanding.]. All the ads are between Democrats Akaka and Case. The question: Who can “bring home more “bacon”? 400 thousands native Hawaiians [one quarter or more] all vote like children who have “needs” and “wants” and somebody else must pay. [Very much like Democrats in Detroit, Gary, and the illegals in California “Baja Norte”] Akaka votes with Hillary 100% of the time, and has MAJOR senority to do a great imitation of King Of Pork Robert “KKK” Byrd. Case is a young middle of the road Democrat. Bottom line: The amount of “pork” is key. The more Inoye and Akaka “shake down” the Mainland, the better, and our Senators have massive seniority. NO amount of money will knock out Akaka. So………Like the idiot Dems in MASS and WV, Hawaiians are “bought and paid for” by “progressive” Democrats. Sad……………….
Enough about Hawaii………….since I live in a trailer park in Kent, right Roger???
Roger, Is Kent a nice place to live?
If DOOFUS is touting a “documentary” you immediately know what it’s about: Wingnut Lies.
The “path to 9/11” ended on Bush’s watch with Condi ignoring Sandy Berger’s warnings and Shrub too busy clearing brush to bother paying attention to protecting the American people.
To top it all off, the mass murder happened while the Shrub-meister was paralyzed reading a children’s story. Nero couldn’t have played a more out-of-tune fiddle.
I doubt very much that the GOP will dump any more money into the McGavick campaign now – especially if races heat up in other states, which appears possible. They’ll spend the most to protect their incumbants in the Senate in places like Missourri and Ohio, especially if those incumbants appear to be in more danger after Congress is done in September. Most of the rest of the national political world seems to be thinking McGavick is now a long-shot.
In the meantime, incumbant GOP members of Congress will trade votes for support from all kinds of party coffers between now and the end of the month. Those that stay with the party will get the assurance of dough. GOP incumbants in Washington’s 8th and 5th will reap the benifits of this, but suffer maybe by appearing too extreme in the red party, in a blue state in a blue year. Expect a ton of national money to flow to GOP incumbants in the 8th and the 5th.
Another big game will be watching the GOP’s special interest groups, like the National Rifle Association. Now that Labor has committed many millions this cycle, groups like the NRA will be hit up behind the scenes by the Roves of the world.
McGavick completed his suck up to the NRA last week. He made it look like he was just in favor of fishing with the kids, but signing up to his support group means endorsing the bottom line of the gun lobby.
“what legislative agenda he intends to pursue”
Unfortunately, we already know.
More war
More torture
More “terrorism” scares
More corruption
No money for homeland security
No money for container inspections
Higher pay and less taxes for CEOs
Cheap labor
$2.15 minimum wage for waitresses
More “guest” workers
More outsourcing
More tax cuts for the rich
Eliminate inheritance tax
More people with no health insurance
More corporate pension defaults
More union busting
Unsafe food and drugs
More election fraud
More voter suppression
More lies and dishonesty
1
OMG!!! The Republicans played politics with our national security!!! NOOOOO!!! Do you really think they would do such a horrible thing? Golly, gee whiz, holy cow.
3
Mike? stands for paying the bartender $2.15 an hour plus tips.
Mike? thinks we need cheap labor in restaurants and lounges to save America from the horror of the minimum wage!
4
Is that a paid infomercial by the GOP Committee for Brainwashing and Propaganda?
16
Yada, yada, yada … nobody has more “needs and wants,” or has their hands out more frequently, for more money, than Republican corporatists. The Bush cabinet is full of ex-CEOs whose companies lived on gummint gimme and never had to compete in a free market.
18
No, your trailer park was evicted from Kent. You live in Roy.
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“Roger, Is Kent a nice place to live?” Commentby Doctor JCH Kennedy— 9/4/06@ 1:22 pm
Your question is irrelevant, because you can’t get into Kent. Try a leper colony. Maybe they’ll take you.
Kent…….Roy, whatever…… No surf, no sunshine, no SCUBA, and no fresh ono or Mahi-mahi.
I’d like to see a little money spent on ads which pre-empt the Republican ad blitz. I’m thinking of something which shows lots of out-of-state cash being plopped on the table, and a quote from the various articles which show where its coming from, and predicting what the ads will try to do. Then when the ads air, they will be poison pills – the more they air, the worse the Republicans look.
RogerRabbit-read the article before you shout naive. It’s now hit Raw Story & Kos.
4
Is that a paid infomercial by the GOP Committee for Brainwashing and Propaganda?
Commentby Roger Rabbit— 9/4/06@ 2:22 pm
You mean like Micheal Moore or Bill Moyers. No.
The left can’t even afford their own propaganda; Bill Moyers has to dip his hand in the taxpayer’s wallet for the liberal drivel he produces.
Did anyone catch this. Clinton wanted to expand “legal” wiretapping to help fight terror, and was blocked by REPUBLICANS. Reading this article could send a chill down any Red Blooded American’s spine.
Why shold Republicans fight terror, when they can play politics with every issue, and make Americans less safe every day.
Better read this.
Be sitting down.
http://americablog.blogspot.co.....h-for.html
Anyone that thinks Republicans would be better at fighting terror should be locked in a rubber room. For life!!!!!
Bill Moyers has to dip his hand
And his old boss, that wingnut Ken Tomlinson has been caught “dipping” his hand as well.
Republicans like Ken Tomlinson just can’t help themselves. When they get into government they just start stealing. It was what they were used to in the corporate world.
Did anyone catch this. Clinton wanted to expand “legal” wiretapping to help fight terror, and was blocked by REPUBLICANS. Reading this article could send a chill down any Red Blooded American’s spine.
Commentby Facts Support My Positions— 9/4/06@ 8:51 pm
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Good point. Why are the Dems making the same mistake? They should know better after 9-11.
If I do watch “The Path to 9/11” it will only be because I havent’t learned anywhere else what the sponsors are. Either way, they’re going to be hearing from me.
Facts Support My Position: See #1