It would have felt good to see Darcy Burner come out of yesterday’s primary with a modest victory. Good, but not especially comfortable considering the low turnout, partial results and unfathomable dynamics of our new top-two primary. But at what will likely be less than a three-point deficit to Dave Reichert once all the votes are counted, I’m not feeling especially uncomfortable either.
On the obvious down side, Reichert ended up on top, and by a similar margin as his 2006 general election victory. But on the up side, Reichert was held significantly below 50 percent… not a great place to be for a two-term incumbent. Indeed, according to a memo distributed today by Burner pollster Celinda Lake, Reichert’s demonstrated lack of support should be “sobering news” for the incumbent:
[D]espite his turnout advantages, the incumbent has been held under 50 percent of the primary vote, and the combined Democratic vote is greater than the Republican vote. This is sobering news for Reichert. The top two system, which allows for voters to split tickets on the primary ballot, most closely resembles the blanket primary system that prevailed in Washington State prior to 2003. Our research indicates that in the 94 congressional races that took place under a blanket primary between 1982 and 2002, the incumbent failed to register 50 percent of the primary tally in 10 of those contests. In seven of those contests, the challenger went on to victory in November…
Prior results do not guarantee future performance and all that, but it’s hardly a bleak situation for Darcy, who finds herself in a significantly stronger position than she was in at this stage of the 2006 race. Heading toward November Darcy can expect a resource advantage, a turnout advantage and presidential coattails to help carry her through to victory. And even yesterday’s results show progress; I don’t know of a single public or private poll that showed Darcy closer than six points to Reichert in recent months, and yet after only two weeks of advertising (at a cost, I’m guessing, of about $400,000) she’s managed to cut that gap in half. By comparison, an August 21-22 2006 SurveyUSA poll gave Reichert a 54-41 percent lead, a 13-point margin Darcy eventually whittled down to three by election day.
So yeah, I’d rather be up three points than down, but given all the same caveats I issued in my discussion of the governor’s race, I’m no more or less worried than I was Tuesday morning. For if there’s a conclusion to be drawn from the primary results, it’s that this race is once again going to come down to the wire. And that’s something we’ve known all along.
Today’s Rasmussen
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
The presidential race in New Hampshire is now a toss-up. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds that Barack Obama’s once-double-digit lead over John McCain is down to a statistically insignificant one-point lead, 43% to 42%.
When “leaners” are factored in, Obama is ahead 47% to 46%.
The O-blah-blah Express to the White House is being derailed. I think voters want more than a “Community Organizer” with his finger on the button.
Darcy’s lack of experience will also be a desisive factor.
Here’s another update from Rasmussen:
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
Ohio, the ultimate swing state in Election 2004, continues to lean in John McCain’s direction, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state.
McCain attracts 45% of the vote in Ohio while Obama earns 41%. When “leaners” are included in the totals, McCain leads Obama 48% to 43%.
When “leaners” are factored in, Obama is ahead 47% to 46%.
That was a misprint. Here is what it should have said:
When “wieners” are factored in, Obama is ahead 47% to 46%.
Poor libs. They have had eight years to lie about the right and in a down economy they are still losing to a 72 year old righty who crashed 5 planes. heheehehehe You guys better call up Perot cause that is the only way you will win with 45% of the popular vote. Ah back to work
Pssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssss
well there is another Gregoire sign down. roof roof.
the 8th is there for darcy’s taking. what actual voters in the 8th need to know, and by know, i mean have drilled into their smart phone, suv-driving, security mom haids, is that reichert is so anti-choice that he would let pharmacists deny them the pill, drill anwr and anywhere else the cheney cabal wants (see reichert’s vote 12-05), and carry the water of the extreme religious right anywhere its craven corrupt leaders wish. and this needs to happen against the backdrop of”liberal” columnist joel connelly falsely portraying reichert as moderate enviro and the blethen times sucking up to reichert in all ways that it can. i will tell my fellow 8th cd voters. will you?
How is Obama polling in the 8th district? Is Darcy Burner polling ahead or behind him?
Dog and Cynical
Polls don’t matter until they favor your candidate, right? Hey, pipsqueaks, care to put any money on November? Both of you are remarkably adherent to Grover Norquist/Rush Limbaugh talking points. Nonetheless, you both seem to believe you can think independently. Nonsense, m’lads, will get you nowhere.
Mary Fairhurst, Charles Johnson, and Debra Stevens won their elections to the Washington Supreme Court in the primary. Civil liberties, therefore, also won. I love it when the Constitution prevails.
WHAT AN ASSHOLE!
A conservative Democrat who came in a distant third in Tuesday’s primary in the 8th Congressional District announced Wednesday that he’s endorsing incumbent Republican Rep. Dave Reichert.
Reichert and Democrat Darcy Burner will face each other in November’s general election.
Jim Vaughn, a former military officer who calls himself a “blue-dog Democrat,” said he believes Reichert is best for the job. He called Burner “part of the liberal progressive extreme.”
Vaughn spent about $3,800 of his own money on his longshot campaign. So far, he’s in third place, with less than 4 percent of the votes.
I seriously doubt that Vaughn’s defection (?) will have much of an impact in the 8th district race. I think the 3.6% who voted for Vaughn were primarily interested in voting for a Democrat and not voting for Vaughn personally. If they liked Reichert, they would have already voted for Reichert in the primary to begin with, instead of going with Vaughn.
I think Vaughn might be able to pull 10% of his support (i.e. 0.4% of the total electorate) into the Republican column. It is not like Vaughn has any sort of loyal following, and with this kind of nonsense, why should he?
WHAT AN ASSHOLE!
A conservative Democrat who came in a distant third in Tuesday’s primary in the 8th Congressional District announced Wednesday that he’s endorsing incumbent Republican Rep. Dave Reichert.
Reichert and Democrat Darcy Burner will face each other in November’s general election.
Jim Vaughn, a former military officer who calls himself a “blue-dog Democrat,” said he believes Reichert is best for the job. He called Burner “part of the liberal progressive extreme.”
Vaughn spent about $3,800 of his own money on his longshot campaign. So far, he’s in third place, with less than 4 percent of the votes.
I seriously doubt that Vaughn’s defection (?) will have much of an impact in the 8th district race. I think the 3.6% who voted for Vaughn were primarily interested in voting for a Democrat and not voting for Vaughn personally. If they liked Reichert, they would have already voted for Reichert in the primary to begin with, instead of going with Vaughan.
I think Vaughn might be able to pull 10% of his support (i.e. 0.4% of the total electorate) into the Republican column. It is not like Vaughn has any sort of loyal following, and with this kind of nonsense, why should he?
I remember reading a few months ago that the odds against unseating an incumbent U.S. Representative were longer than any other elective federal office. In 2006 Darcy was a relative unkown, and still came within striking distance of unseating Reichart.
I think Darcy’s got a good shot at it this time around, given her better name recognition, Reichart now being in the minority in Congress, and the coat-tails of the Obama movement.
Expect Reichart to use all the powers of encumbency over the next two and a half months. Of course, his use of the franking priviledge for thinly disguised campaign purposes has already been aired. In addition, the Bush administration will arrange some kind of events locally, where Reichart can claim to be accomplishing something for the district. The actual nature of the event and Reichart’s connection to it may be insignificant, the whole purpose will be to have something the Seattle daily newspapers will be obliged to attend, and Reichart can hope that it will end up as a front-page article with his picture displayed.
@ 10:
In 2006, Darcy Burner was the only Democrat challenger from a Kerry district (yes, D-8 voted for Kerry in 2004) facing a freshman Republican who did not unseat the incumbent. Many of her fellow Democrats unseated freshman or even senior House Republicans, and some of them did it in Bush districts.
Burner significantly underperformed her peers in 2006, the bluest of blue years since Watergate for the Congress. Her loss was spun here as some great, almost-made-it moral victory, but the fact of the matter is many Democrats won in the same or even tougher situations in 2006; she was the one who didn’t.
We’ll see more of the same in 2008. It will be a blue year, and Obama will win handily here in WA and pretty easily in the country as a whole (electorally, that is), and Gregoire will win by 3 or 4%, but Reichart will be re-elected.
In 2010, please send us D8 voters a Democrat with some life accomplishments beyond what a thousand Microsoftie middle managers have done. And, perhaps one with a little public service or with some experience in really running a business or an organization. Fund raising skills are only a key factor in getting elected; they have nothing to do with being qualified to serve. Burner can raise money from Seattle and outside-of-WA liberals. That doesn’t mean she should represent the moderate D8 in WA.
– Bellevue voter
11: For the life of me, I can’t see why anyone in the 8th would vote for Reichart. Burner may be somewhat of an unknown quantity, having not held elective office before. But Reichart accomplished zilch in his first term, even with a Republican majority in Congress, and his ability to accomplish anything in his district as a member of the minority is next to nothing. In short, he won’t be able to “Bring home the bacon”. At least Darcy has a chance to get something accomplished as a member of the Democrtic majority.
Now, if your goal is to have a loyal Republican who will serve as an obstructionist vote in what is otherwise a Democratic Congress, and that’s your only or overriding consideration, then I guess voting for Reichart makes sense.
By the way – anybody know what the Senate math looks like in 2008? How many of the 1/3 of the Senate seats up for re-election are open seats, or held by Republicans seeking re-election? Since Lieberman will have turned Republican by the end of this year, the Democrats need to pick up a more comfortable majority there.
11…another 8th district citizen here who agrees with you completely.
Despite being a complete shithead, Goldy is right on both points. 1.) Reichert below 50 is not a good place to be, the race is still insanely competitive. 2.) The dynamic of a close governor’s race was not really changed by the outcome Tuesday. Gregoire and Rossi partisans will bleat that she was ahead and she under 50% respectively but neither means much more than it will be close in November.
The Democrat party and out of state special interests are trying to buy this election for Burner but dumping millions on her of which she has already spent a bundle, but she still came in behind Dave. I think it was very interesting that he got the endorsement yesterday from her Democrat competitor who has asked his supporters to vote for Dave. the 3% may not seem like much, but it will secure the election for Dave Reichert.
In a recent Times Article Darcy said as she pitched for money, “You can buy a piece of Darcy Burner. I’m not expensive.” Darcy is for sale and you can bet her votes will follow the dollars she receives.
She recently met with a labor union and reportedly said when they asked for her support, “You haven’t done—–for me” and walked away clearly implying that their donations would have (and still could) buy a piece of Darcy Burner.
The article then included the fact that Dave Reichert even hates to ask for money and points out that the incorruptable Dave would “have a hard time asking for a cup of coffee.”
I prefer my Congressman to be incorruptable–not for sale like Darcy. She had no experience four years ago and while Dave Reichert has added four years to his experience working for Washington in a moderate bi-partisan way Darcy has spent all her time solilciting from Emily’s list and others.
She’s a joke.
Reichert voted against drilling in AMWR. That vote was mistakenly addressed earlier in this blog. He had a couple of reasons–the natural beauty and also it is a military reserve to be kept in case the US is cut off from current supplies in time of crisis.
He has worked with bi-partisan forces to help Boeing in its crises and also to set aside wilderness areas. He is the right blend of moderate for the Eastside today.
He even has the endorsement of the WEA so those of you who think he is so far right, better do some homework on his website.
The good news is that Reichert is below 50% in the primary. That means he’s still vulnerable, that Darcy can still beat him in the general election. The bad news is that Reichert won in the 2008 primary the way he did in the 2006 general election – the thinnest possible sliver of a lead in King County, and a small but solid lead in Pierce County.
Darcy now has to hit high and hit low, and relentlessly, to win.
She has to use the airwaves to pound, pound, pound into the public’s mind that Reichert is a tool of the radical right, a deliberate deceiver of the public, but most importantly, not his own man.
She has to also focused less on fundraising, which took up an inordinate amount of her time in 2006, and be out and about in the public eye, shaking as many hands as possible, especially south of the Renton city limits. Her becoming a regular presence in Graham, Auburn, Covington and Renton would send chills up the spines of Reichert’s staff, and with good reason. (It also wouldn’t hurt if some of those visits were accompanied by respected local Democrats in those areas, such as John Laudenburg or Adam Smith.)
The WEA did what it did for the same reason WA-NARAL supported Steve Litzow in the 41st LD via a dual endorsement with Marcie Maxwell – they think selecting a pet Republican ensures their ability to work both sides of the aisle, which blissfully ignores the fact that today’s Republican Party is a radically conservative faction willing to do whatever it takes to attain or retain power.
As for the Seattle Times, they support some of this WEA/WA-NARAL logic, but the bottom line for them is that they prefer to support money over people, and their leadership has a mindset that considers the region to be still stuck somewhere in 1988. That vision of the Eastside, of King County, of this state is gone, gone, gone, and they won’t accept it. I would frankly not accept an offer for a debate through them – only through the TV affiliates and nothing less. Starve the bastards for attention. Make them irrelevant in this race.
But the bottom line is that Darcy can win – she just has to want it badly enough and act on that desire.