Rasmussen just released its latest poll in Washington’s gubernatorial race, showing Gov. Chris Gregoire leading Republican challenger Dino Rossi by a 50 to 48 percent margin.
These numbers are nowhere near the recent Elway Poll that showed Gregoire with 51-39 lead, but suggests a steady trend in Gov. Gregoire’s favor from Rasmussen’s previous two surveys, that showed the race tied 48-48 on October 2, and a 52-46 Rossi lead on September 10… this despite the unprecedented millions of dollars in relentless attack ads from Rossi’s allies over the past few weeks.
So all in all, I’d rather be in the governor’s shoes right now than Rossi’s.
Goldy–
You conveniently forgot to post the rest of the story…the bad news…as you are prone to do:
4 years in office and only a 50% favorable rating AND only 43% say she is doing a good or excellent job. That’s pretty weak.
I’ve been saying for months this will be a 1 point race, either way.
Sure looks like it.
I agree Goldy, I would rather be in Gregoire’s shoes @ 50% than Rossi @ 48% WITH REGARD TO THIS RACE.
However, I would never want to be in Gregoire’s shoes. They Stink! Just like her fiscal management acumen.
Cynical, the governor has been the target of an unprecedented storm of vicious, lying attack ads, most of it illegally funded, and yet they’ve barely chipped away at her standing. The extraordinary thing about this race, considering how lopsided the spending has been, is that it remains so stable. No doubt it will be close, but Rossi can’t seem to get any traction.
Now compare that to WA-08 where Darcy’s “Ineffective” ads have been extremely effective in educating voters about Reichert, and the polls have moved dramatically. (Though no doubt the economic crisis is working against incumbents too.)
Good news for Gregoire. Even better news for Obama – the trends are clear and McCain’s fast running out of time and hope.
http://www.pollster.com/polls/.....ge-mvo.php
More bad news for McCain – the media has moved on from Palin’s $150,000 wardrobe to focus on her “Vote Donkey” scarf. Nothing’s going right for McCain at this point. Each day is now measured by how bad it was for him.
Keeping grasping for straws…methinks an incumbent within the margin of error two weeks out is in a shitload of trouble.
“but Rossi can’t seem to get any traction.”
Really? He is ahead in money and tied in the polls with 12 days left against a Democrat incumbent in a blue state. She and her folks have thrown everything from stem cells to minimum wage at Rossi and she can’t get over 50%.
She may end up winning but it will be ugly and close in the end either way.
2. Goldy spews:
Pulllease Goldy, don’t start that “VICTIM” bullsh*t again. Gregoire and her Union Surrogates have been no Mother Teresa.
Hey, it’s an Election CONTEST. It’s not like Dancing With The Stars. Folks have free speech rights and voters have to sift thru all the noise and make their decisions.
I have never seen so many Americans & even Washingtonians, so easily swayed back & forth. It’s amazing. I think a certain % of folks really become fixated on those partisan ads.
I’m actually more concerned about the legitimacy of our Voter Registration and Election Processes than who wins. I would really like to see a National Voter Registration Database all States are tapped into where Registrations are linked to SS#’s (who in the f*ck doesn’t have an SS #!) and Driver’s License databases.
1 Legitimate Vote for 1 legitimate voter.
Something we can all agree on.
I think Election Officials in all Key States will be under the microscope…including Washington State and especially King Kounty. I hope they are ready for intense scrutiny…as it should be.
One other thing Goldy, I couldn’t find over what time period Rasmussen did this polling.
Do you see it anywhere??
Rog–
This was my post from a prior thread responding to your DOOM & GLOOM about the Dow being DOWN 175…notice the time of my post, 11:32——-
42. Mr. Cynical spews:
Precisely at the time Rog is bitching about the end of the world…SMART & SAVVY Investors are buying!!
Disclaimer: I promised I will not discuss MY specific personal investments!
10/23/2008 at 11:32 am
Rog, the Dow ended UP 172 points.
When Rog starts telling us the Sky is Falling, it probably is time to BUY!
What’s more convincing to me than individual poll numbers is that Gregoire has been on top for the majority of the last year.
http://www.realclearpolitics.c.....html#polls
It’s all going to depend upon turnout in the Governor’s race, and the extent to which new voters for Obama know much about the “down-ticket” races.
Rossi’s campaign has been consistently attempting to confuse those new voters by trying to pretend to be the Democrat in the race (arguing for “change”, blue yard signs, using “GOP” as the party label, etc.). Certainly such tricks don’t fool those of us who are well-educated, but they might manage to steal just enough voters who think he’s NOT a Republican (mayb 1%?) that it might tip this race.
The good news for Gregoire in the 50% favorable is that it is a huge climb from where she started a few years ago, as I recall.
Elway is a Republican. Rasmussen is a Republican poll. So these polls are hardly biased in Gregoire’s direction.
The cynical candidate in the race is Dino Rossi. Rossi has run the most cynical campaign in recent memory. It looks close.
But it also looks like the votes have hardened. I would much rather be the Gregoire campaign than the Rossi campaign right now.
rhp6033,
There was a fascinating Elway poll in mid-September that addresses your point regarding party identification. Darryl reported on it in his blog. Here’s the money quote (emphasis added):
With the conditions mentioned by Darryl in mind, on the face of it one might assume that the poison from wearing the Republican label is a full five percentage points. That’s why I’ve been saying that Gregoire, or perhaps the WA Dems, should have been mentioning G.O.P. = Republican at every opportunity.
What would Rossi be able to say … that he isn’t a Republican? Oh, I know what the answer would be — “I’m not running on that issue.”
Looks like Rossi’s sleazy ads and slimy supporters are catching up with him.
@7 Buy all the stock you want right now, Cynical. The recession really hasn’t started to bite yet — unemployment is still under 6% and the biggest impacts on consumer spending and corporate profits are yet to come. If you think this is the market’s bottom, you’re nuts. I’m hoarding cash for 4 – 6 months farther down the road.
@3 When things don’t go right — when a campaign looks like slow-motion train wreck — it’s usually because of poor organization and management, not bad luck. There’s an old saying that people make their own luck — some succeed in the face of all odds, while others snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. If the McCain campaign is unfocused, stumbling, and has a jumped and piecemeal message, why shouldn’t expect more of the same from a McCain administration? I think voters instinctively realize that. I truly believe that one of the key factors in Obama’s success, still unrecognized and unsung in the MSM, is that voters are impressed by his well organized, well-run, and effective campaign.
I hope the Elway poll is right and Rossi suffers a humiliating defeat so he will go away and not come back, and BIAW’s 8-figure investment in him goes down the rat hole and leaves that odious organization so discredited and bankrupt that it never rises again.
@7 “SMART & SAVVY Investors are buying!!”
There’s no hurry. The markets need to find a bottom and form a base. The smart and savvy understand this. Apparently you don’t.
“Disclaimer: I promised I will not discuss MY specific personal investments!”
It doesn’t bother me. Your displays of insecurity and inadequacy are always good for a laugh.
@15 “BIAW’s 8-figure investment in him goes down the rat hole and leaves that odious organization so discredited and bankrupt that it never rises again”
Mmm, I do like that thought.
McCain: “She needed clothes.”
http://www.politico.com/news/s.....14879.html
Umm, yeah, sure.
Lefty Douchebags: You all scream “this is the blue state“. Yes, FUWA is blue. So if the Queen can only poll 50% in a blue state, it speaks volumes about how Queen Chrissie is viewed.
Steve, admit it pal, you don’t need clothes. You live in the barn, sampling your female goat herd when the viagra kicks in!
Wait a minute….
Elway is Republican?
Rasmussen is Republican?
Well per yelling loser boy you can’t trust them. Want to reread that stupid paragraph from yelling loser boy about conservative pollsters?
#14
right on – exactly – and his fund raising skills
good work in the campaigns for two LONG years = trust in the White House
YOU GOT IT – HARD TO MEASURE BUT THE ROOT OF HIS RIDE TO VICTORY – they said show me and he has
Obviously surrounded by talentented people who he uses
This was always going to be a close election. It is really up to Pierce and Snohomish county to decide the next governor.
This poll is much more believable than the Elway poll. Gregoire is going to have a good chunk of Independents to get re-elected.
Rossi, if he doesn’t become Governor, will still be a force in Washington Politics, and I wouldn’t be surprise if he does run for Senate in 2010 against Murray.
@N in Seattle. Uh, I’m not sure if you read the entire thing that you quoted, but here it is again, I’m sure you will see where you are a moron(bold is mine)
‘Elway split the sample into two groups. Group one was asked to chose between “Republican Dino Rossi” and “Democrat Christine Gregoire.” Group two was asked to chose between labels as they appear on the Washington state ballot. That is, they were asked to chose between Rossi, “who prefers the GOP party” and Gregoire, “who prefers the Democratic party.”
Subgroup one gave Gregoire a 50% to 41% lead over Rossi. Group two gave Gregoire a 48% to 44% lead. With a 6.5% margin of error, the differences in these findings are nowhere near achieving statistical significance. In other words, the differences between the two subgroups could simply reflect sampling error.’
Do you even read things before you post them?