I’m filling in for Dave Ross this morning (and through tomorrow) on News/Talk 710-KIRO. Here’s how the show is shaping up thus far:
9AM: Who won yesterday’s “Crucial Tuesday” primaries?
No, really… who won? I’m not really sure. I mean, I know Hillary Clinton won three out of four, including the big prizes of Ohio and Texas, but she didn’t really make a dent in Obama’s delegate lead, so mathematically, does it really matter? Joining me to help sort things out is Democratic strategist, pundit, blogger and friend of the show, James Boyce, who recently suggested on Huffington Post that an Obama nomination could lead to a popular vote landslide victory/electoral college loss in November. Later in the hour we hope to hear from the DNC about fears of a brokered convention.
10AM: Goldy talks to Republicans!
It happens. You know, sometimes. Tracey Schmitt, a Republican strategist and former RNC communications director joins me at the top of the hour to kvell about Sen. John McCain and his prospects in November. Later, we turn to the state GOP’s new transportation plan that promises to spend $6 billion on transportation projects… without raising taxes! House Transportation Committee chair Rep. Judy Clibborn (D-Mercer Island) joins me at 10:35, but first we hope to talk to one of the Republicans behind this plan to explain how it works… or barring that, maybe a magician.
11AM: Do high school students have ANY First Amendment rights?
17-year-old Avery Doninger was disciplined by high school administrators after calling them “douche bags” on her public blog, a decision upheld by a federal court that ruled she could be punished because the blog addressed school issues and was likely read by fellow students… raising the question… do teens have any rights at all? Geez… students can be disciplined every time they call a school official a douche bag, off school property, two-thirds of students would eventually be expelled. Doninger’s attorney, Jon Schoenhorn, joins me by phone.
Tune in this morning (or listen to the live stream) and give me a call: 1-877-710-KIRO (5476).
Obama was trounced last night. The spin masters are diminishing it because .. after all Obama began with the assumption that Hillary owned these states. That psoition makes no sense unless he also wants to win th November.
The question is not how did she pull it off? The real question is how does Obama counter the Clinton strategy. That strategy boils down to the assertion that HRC is more experienced in government. The tactics used to make this point are, however, all negative. On no issue has Ms. Clinton come out and said, this is where my power of judgment is better than Baracks’. No issue biut one … healthcare. She and he have fought each other to a standff on that one.
Barack needs to prick the balloon of her competence. How can this be done?
1. Hillarycare … Run the damn ad that killed it, followed by a discussion of why she failed, capped with femonizing Ira Magaziner. Point ut that her plan does not deal with the need to seperate employment from insurance.
2. Social Security, her plan is NOT a plan, it is a delay to another commission. Attack the plan.
3. Public service. HRC has served for one year as a counsel to the Children’s defence fund. Yet she touts her role. Compare her 1 year with BHO’s many years. Senate record .. she lacks sponsored legislation.
4. Hit her on Iraq and on Israel at the same time. BHO should challenge her to defend her withdrawal strategy. He should play on his “we went is stupidly, we need to end this smartly.” To be honest neither of them has an annonced strategy but she has been a tad more specific so this is an opening. HRC says she would withdraw 1-2 brigades a month depending on the military teling her what wqas feasible. Obama should reataliate. “Withdrawl from Bush’s mistake is not so simple, we need a real plan. He oculd follow that wiht almopst anything as lonjg as the plan includes Israel and a commitment form day one to have a permanent on site peace amabassador.
5. Bill is a major problem for her. His dealings through the Clinton Foundation .. esp. the relaitonship with a dubious investor in Canada, are red meat. BHO could raise the issue without going negatove by asking whether WJC will commit to stepping down form the position since it compromises the ethics of the Prsidency.
2. Hillary’s feminsim can be turned against her … but only very carefully. Barck shyould give speach n the politics of diision. In that talk or ad he could include an HRC speach about being the first female Prexy;. That could be put alongside Bush’s claim that he was desrving because of his strong beleifs in jesus, Nixon;’s Mccarthyism, even Jackson’s campaign. the point would be, we need to come together .. gender, race are past issues ,, BUT is a way that paints her as absessed.
6. Tax returns. Nuff said. There are many ways to use this, but it would be ebst to put it in the competency context. If she is so competent, why can’t she release their taxes?
SeattleJew: Send these to the Obama Campaign. Dems is good points!
You have one problem though. Without the politics of division, more than half of the donkey moonbat! playbook must be shredded.
He needs to dwell on the Gloria Steinem ad say I admire the sacrifice John McCain did. He rises above the Pelletizers of the world, dismisses the headless lucy (plus his other aliases) and makes the Rujax!’s look more stupid than they are.
Goldy, ask the lady at the 10 o’clock hour about Cliton Campaign recent dirty tricks and if the Republicans are right about Cliton and her campaign.
Jesse Jackson bemoaned another 1968 brokered convention. Why didn’t you invite him on? Oh wait a minute… you’d be talked over by Jesse.
The Cliton’s pay taxes?
Where did she get that $5MM to loan her campaign?
The rich pays taxes?
Did the vast right wing conspiracy give her the $5MM?
Obama needs , first of all, to address the problem of the Texas caucus. If it’s bullshit, don’t let himself be swiftboated by a late response. If it’s true, and I’m disinclined to think that it is, he needs to disown it, make a circuitous apology, and publicly warn against any similar shit in the future; after the past elections, the last thing he needs is appearance of fraud.
I think it likely he’ll end up as candidate, if for no other reason than the DNC will pressure Hillary to step aside to avoid a civil war and weaken the party against McCain.
Puddy, there needs be division, but little/no negativity:
He doesn’t need to, and his integrity is not at question. The Clintons’ aura certainly is not pristine, even amongst us Dems.
And last, Hillary can’t go any more negative than she already has. If she has a chance of a victory against McCain with all her negatives, she has to have Obama in tow as her VP, and she can’t piss him off too much.
The question is: will Obama accept VP with Bill behind the curtain all the time? If Hill can’t reign in Bill, the VP position reverts to a crummy ceremonial thing, because Billy will want to be the “other man”.
Goldy~ ask if Dave Ross is intentionally trying to destroy his ratings by having you sit in when he wants to take time off. Making me turn to of all people……Rush, the man responsibile for Hillary’s resurgance by having Republican’s in Texas vote for her to help keep the blood between B.O. and HRC to continue another couple months.
@7
If he’s such a turn off, why are you cluttering up his blog?
Go pay for your own damn forum.
Trounced??? What are you smoking, SJ?
According to CNN, before compiling the Texas caucus count, last night’s result was 155-137 for Clinton — a mere 18-delegate edge. That cuts her pledged-delegate deficit from 153 to 135. In other words, Clinton still trails Obama in pledged delegates by an Ohio’s-worth.
And that’s before we add in the Texas caucuses, where Obama is expected to do better than Clinton. If the very sketchy results currently shown by CNN (36% counted as of very early this morning) are extrapolated to the full 67 delegates, it would end up as 35-32 for Obama. Thus, the Clinton “win” in Texas would come out to a 97-96 advantage.
A few more such “trouncings”, and Barack Obama will clinch the nomination.
@ 8 – Nah, I’d rather see the leftist meltdown this morning up close and personal on this blog.
Good, asswipe, you’ll love November, I’m sure.
If I think Hillary got the Democratic Nomination by going negative and using dirty tricks, I will vote for McCain and damn the consequences. I will not reward her for cheating.
Let a Republican solve the recession.
I think I will SemperWhimper. While you’re your staring in bewilderment at your T.V. set with your Obama kool aid mustache wondering why the Republican’s are celebrating with champagne at the podium awaiting McCain’s acceptance speech.
But don’t worry lad, just like in 2000 and in 2004, the Seattle/King county suicide hotline will have plenty of volunteers working that night to take your call.
N in Seattle @ 9
The Texas Democratic Party website has Obama ahead by 55.3% to 44.6% over Clinton in the precinct caucuses, and has the results broken down by state senate district. I have extrapolated these results, by district (since the percent reporting varies quite a bit by district), and this results in a 54.8% to 45.1% Obama advantage. Extrapolated to 67 delegates (who I believe will be allocated statewide from caucus results), Obama has an advantage of 37 to 30 over Clinton.
For the primary delegate breakdown, I used the Secretary of State website. It was 64 to 62 for Clinton, until the last minute, when it became 65 to 61 for Clinton. Senate District 15 was very close, with Obama falling 122 votes short of the 5/8 to 3/8 margin required for a 3-to-1 split of the 4 delegates. So Clinton ended up with 2 delegates, after pulling just over a 3/8 share vis-a-vis Obama.
These results would give Obama an overall advantage of 98 to 95 over Clinton from Texas yesterday.
Overall, Clinton doesn’t get much of a boost from yesterday’s results. Here is what I get from RealClearPolitics, and my own work regarding Texas:
Ohio: 141 delegates. RCP (and CBS News) has projected 74 to 64 for Clinton, with 3 up in the air. Even if Clinton gets all 3 of these, she still wins by only 13 (i.e. 77 to 64)
Texas: 193 delegates. My projection is 98 for Obama, and 95 for Clinton, with Obama winning by 3.
Rhode Island: 21 delegates. RCP has projected 12 for Clinton, and 8 for Obama, with 1 up in the air. Even if Clinton gets this remaining delegate, she still wins by only 5 (i.e. 13 to 8). CNN is projecting 13 to 8 for Clinton. 13 to 8 seems excessive, given Clinton won by only 58% to 40%, but these things have rounding quirks, so I will use 13 to 8 for Clinton.
Vermont: CNN and RCP both predict 9 to 6 for Obama, a net advantage of 3.
So all of this results in a 12 delegate net advantage for Clinton, even assuming she gets all 3 remaining delegates in Ohio. Clinton picks up at most 191 delegates, and Obama picks up at least 179 delegates.
I once unloaded a Don Rickles-esque reference to one of my favorite teachers while speaking at an assembly in junior high school. Nothing happened and he and I are still friends.
I suppose that if I were a kid today and did something like that, I’d be burned at the stake.
Well, McCain is toast. According to the White House Spokeswoman:
“The [P]resident (Bush) has said he looks forward to vigorously campaigning for the GOP and tonight it has become clear that the GOP nominee will be Sen. John McCain,” White House press secretary Dana Perino said Tuesday night. “Of course the [P]resident is going to endorse the GOP nominee, which is going to be Senator John McCain.”
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23481178/
You would think that McCain would have enough sense to say…”Gee, Mr. President, thanks for your endorsement. With regard to helping out with the campaign, I’ll have someone get back to you on that…. no, really, we’d be happy to have your help, we just need to check our schedules and coordinate a few things, it shouldn’t take more than a few months or so….”
@13: rick D – the only suicides will be the Republicans like McCain attaching themselves to the hip of GWB and going down in flames in November – the corruption and ineptness of Republicans have been on display for th elast 7 years and people are tired of it.
Massive record budget deficits
Ruined economy with increasing unemployment and inflation
Huge trade deficits due to republican policies (despite the low dollar)
Lowest dollar value on record
Record profits by oil companies and record gas prices
The most corrupt adminstration ever
embarassing the our country by admitting and condoning torture
an unnecessary war that costs 3 billion/day and is bankrupting us
the failure to go after or catch Osama bin Laden
Abramoff and the K street project – designed by Karl Rove for republican lobbying to the exclusion of democrats
No, the democrats will win in November and Clinton won’t have the delegates to win the nomination. Her all out attack mode politics will falter and people will be turned off by her and by her stance on Iraq.
A. As usual the righties want to silence Goldy – and I love it when they complain because it points out what crybabies they are.
B. That AWOL drunk-driving asshole George Bush just endorsed Johnboy McCain. Wow – that’s got to be an endorsement that worries the GOP. Bush has the lowest approvals in Presidential history. How is THAT going to help? Oh yes, it helps the Dems. The more they can tie Bush’s recession and war to McCain the bigger the margin we win by in Nov.
C. Ask the GOP if anyone has looked into how many service men lost their lives because Johnboy gave up information to the VC while in prison camps? I’d like to know how many men we lost, how many of our plans were revealed – etc. Hero? Doubtful.
@ 9 – The majority of the American public – minus us foaming at the mouth, calculator employing, counting every 1/1000th of a vote in a precinct and trying to calculate if it gives our candidate another delegate in the election – is not paying attention to the delegate totals.
The reason that the perception of who is ‘winning’ these states is so huge is that *it* really determines in the average American’s mind who’s interest in politics wanes as the primary/caucus train leaves their state.
To further prove my point, Bill Richardson, who on Sunday was on the political TV talk shows making the rounds saying that he was going to support whoever had a clear lead in the delegates after this Tuesday election, had his staff come out within the past 12 hours and deny on record that he was going to now endorse Barack Obama. Quite the contrary. Even though she has only picked up between 15 – 20 delegates, the double digit wins in Ohio and Rhode Island along with the nearly 1 million vote majority in Texas has caused him pause, and I believe, is making him change course.
Why? Well, the devil really is in the details. Barack Obama is having a hard time winning the core constituency of the democratic party – union and blue collar workers. Even with the huge endorsements from SEIU and others, he captured only 38% of that vote to 62% for Hillary Clinton. The democratic party elders are smart to realize that they cannot win an election with a candidate who is showing so poorly with the core base of the democratic electorate.
There are 5 states democrats look to in order to win the general election:
Florida
Pennsylvania
Ohio
Texas
California
Democrats typically have to get 3 out of the 5 in order to have a chance. Say what you want about Florida, but Hillary Clinton has captured 3 (4 if you count Florida) out of those 5 – with Pennsylvania still to vote. Pennsylvania is MUCH closer to the Ohio electorate than they are to the Virginia electorate in terms of demographics. If I had to put money on it at the moment, Hillary will capture Pennsylvania by 15%.
Just btw, my predicitions for last night as posted on my blog:
Vermont: Obama by 25%
Rhode Island: Hillary by 20%
Texas: Hillary by 5%
Ohio: Hillary by 15%.
I was a bit high in all my predictions, but pretty close to being spot on. I called Wisconsin wrong (her base seemed to have collapsed in that state) – but Wisconsin really has been the only state with rust belt demographics that has gone the other way on her. Pennsylvania looks to be another firewall for her, and if she captures 4-5 (again, Florida) of 5 of the General Election must win states, the democratic party knows that they cannot put Barack Obama at the top of the ticket, and you will see a Clinton-Obama ticket in ’08.
I know, you’ll never believe me, you’ll flame me for telling you your candidate has to win Pennsylvania or it’s over for him – even with his ‘insurmountable’ pledged delegate lead – but it’s the truth.
Barack Obama must win Pennsylvania, or the nomination is done, and the super delegates will rally around Hillary Clinton for President and Barack Obama for Vice-President.
nuf said.
@15 – yup – the math is that Clinton can’t catch up in delegates ….she needed blow-out wins and she probably loses the delgate count in Texas – where only three weeks ago she was up 15-20%. Count on Pennsylvania being close too and unless she can win over all the supredelgates or seat Michigan and florida (which broke the rules and should not be seated) – she is through.
Clinton’s impressive landslide victory gain of up to 12 delegates yesterday will likely be more than wiped out by the Wyoming caucus Saturday and Mississippi primary Tuesday.
Wyoming chooses 12 delegates by caucus on Saturday. Obama has done very well in caucuses, especially in the upper Western states — kicking ass in Washington, Idaho (Obama’s highest percentage of any state contest, including DC), Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, and elsewhere). I predict Obama will get at least a split of 8 to 4 over Clinton.
Mississippi chooses 33 delegates by primary on Tuesday. Mississippi has the highest percentage of Black voters of any state. Blacks made up about half the Democratic electorate in the 2007 state and local primaries, where many White Republican-leaning voters choose the Democratic ballot because of the county office and legislative primaries being more meaningful on the Democratic side. However, next Tuesday’s primary contains only federal offices, and two of the four congressional districts (which have a majority of the state’s White voters) are open Republican seats, with highly competitive Republican primaries and relatively anemic Democratic fields. Look for an overwhelming Black voter turnout — probably much higher than the 51% Black turnout in Georgia, that earned Obama a 67% to 31% victory over Clinton. On the other hand, White voters in Mississippi will likely be less supportive of Obama than those in Georgia. I will predict that Obama will pick up at least 22 delegates in Mississippi, and Clinton will pick up 11 delegates or less.
Obama should have a net advantage of at least 15 delegates between Wyoming and Mississippi, which will more than wipe out the 12 or fewer net delegates Clinton gained yesterday.
rhp6033 @ 17
McCain is hopefully toast, but the race will be competitive if Clinton manages to pull off the nomination. Too bad McCain didn’t get the nomination in 2000, when he stood for a lot of decent ideas, versus the McCain of 2008, who has sold out his remaining principles in order to secure the nomination.
DustinJames @ 20
What difference do general election strengths have to do with the states Obama needs to carry to get the nomination? I think Obama has only lost in two of the “Red” states that Bush carried in 2004 — Arizona and New Mexico. If Obama carried all the states in November that he has carried in primaries and caucuses, it would be a 48 state blowout. By your logic, let’s nominate Obama and he will be a landslide winner in November.
Continuation of 17: Actually, that would make a great SNL skit. It would end with Bush chasing McCain in circles around the desk in the oval office, with Bush crying “I just want to help…!!!!” and McCain trying to keep his distance, ultimately using his fingers to make a cross, the way they would in those old vampire movies when they were cornered by Count Dracula….
Errata @ 24
Okay, I forgot Arkansas, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Ohio and the mock election in Florida. But you would still have an Obama blowout if he carried all of his nomination victory states in November.
As I’ve said before, I’m pretty neutral on the subject of Clinton vs. Obama, with perhaps a slight “lean” towards Clinton. Any Democrat who gets the Republicans out of office is a vast improvement for the future of the country. But I am impressed at how many young people Obama is pulling into the process, I would hate to lose them.
Aren’t you da same idiot who claimed $8 Gas from Halliburton but it was nowhere to be found through Google.
Who wants to silence the “Golden Voice”? Not me. Not Cynical. Not Politically Incorrect. Not KLake.
Who Badgag?
DustinJames:
Huh? 1MM votes in Texas?
Clinton 1,453,139 51% 64
Obama 1,354,672 48% 62
R U on crack?
Primary victories in specific states don’t mean much with respect to the general election. Obama or Clinton could win by a blowout in Utah, but there is no way either of them is going to take that state in the general election.
Likewise, the news media concentration on who “wins” individual states doesn’t mean much with respect to the Democratic nomination, which uses a proportional representation to select delegates for the national convention. If the Democrats used the Republican “winner take all” system, the delegate counts would look very different.
Richard Pope:
Cliton won all of the machismo states bordering Mexico as previously predicted long ago by Puddy after the Nevada vote. Remember my his panic comment? All of these states voted Heilary becuz the Mexicans don’t want an articulate black man in power. Since latinos are the #1 minority now (passed blacks in 2003-2004) they follow the stereotypes delivered to them by white America regarding blacks in movies, on the news, and by word of mouth.
Thanks liberals. You control movies and the news.
Thank you, Richard. I too looked at the TDP’s caucus results site. My spreadsheet extrapolation, completed a bit later than yours, shows Obama’s state delegate lead expanding — I have it as 55.2% to 44.8% — which still leads to a 37-30 DNC delegate margin.
So, yes, I agree with you on the Texas totals — despite the news reports, Obama won in Texas.
And your analysis of the next two states, Wyoming and Mississippi, seems to be spon on as well. Now, if the MSM would just get it through their heads that DNC delegates are what matter, and that Obama’s delegate lead is just about insurmountable, …
Why didn’t Goldy discuss the Steinem Experience? You know saying women need to unite for Heilary against the black man.
Interesting stereotype there too. Think Blazing Saddles.
“It’s True, It’s True!”
@ 29, errr, sorry – correct, I meant near 100,000.
Seattle_N:
Heilary has been shrilling the vast left-wing MSM conspiracy has been against her lately. In another thread the ‘bats here have thrown Chris Matthews under the bus. Many in the MSM have climbed aboard the Obama Train. Heilary is pizzed cuz they were her inevitable nominee organizational mouthpiece earlier last summer.
So now the left wing MSM has to try and act neutral.
What a crock.
Darryl you are still a punk!
Is McCain even a citizen? Shouldn’t we call his patriot status into question if it turns out he’s just a wetback? HE HE!
35 Chris Matthews threw himself under the bus long ago, right after Tim Russert.
How did Tim or Chris do this ArtFart? By being transparent for once and asking the tough questions of the donkey side for a change instead of letting them get a pass?
Why is it the liberal MSM throw softballs at Heilary or Barack and throw the high inside cheeze to a righty?
Bagdad Bush @ 36
Mitt Romney’s father, George Romney, was Mexican by birth. Romney would be eligible for Mexican citizenship under recent Mexican federal legislation, despite the fact that his father was deemed to have renounced his Mexican citizenship many decades ago by voting in United States elections. However, since Romney’s father was born to American citizen parents, he was deemed by many to be a natural-born U.S. citizen, as U.S. law granted him citizenship by birth and he did not have to be naturalized. There was not any serious discussion of George Romney being constitutionally ineligible to be President when he was seeking the GOP nomination back in 1968. While the 14th amendment guarantees citizenship to anyone born in the United States (except for children of diplomats subject to diplomatic immunity, and therefore not subject to United States jurisdiction), it is not the exclusive method of becoming a citizen by birth. Indeed, when the natural born citizen requirement was established by the original U.S. Constitution, there were absolutely no provisions in the constitution concerning how one became a citizen. Prior to the 14th amendment, citizenship was established solely by statutory law or common law (i.e. judicial precedent).
The picture which McCain will be trying to disavow in the months to follow:
http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/j/ms.....#215;2.jpg
Opps, link doesn’t seem to work. I’ll try again later.
N in Seattle @ 32
I will take your word for it :) It is a pain in the rear to copy the numbers from the TDP website for each district. But the CNN numbers of 52% to 48% for the caucus seem to be way off, while the TDP figures are consistent at about 55% to 45%.
Val Verde County still hasn’t reported the poll votes for its 14 precincts. Senate District 19 is right on the edge, with Obama about 401 votes below the 3/8 to 5/8 split he needs to split the delegates 2-2 with Clinton, versus Clinton maintaining the present 3-1 spread. However, I don’t think these outstanding precincts will accomplish that, and if anything, will expand Clinton’s lead a little more beyond a 5/8 to 3/8 split.
puddy@29 that would be obama on crack.
Val Verde County’s poll votes still don’t show up on the Texas SOS website. However, the Del Rio newspaper reported these numbers in its internet edition today. Clinton beat Obama by 2,322 to 1,165. This is a bit more than 5/8 to 3/8, so Clinton will maintain her 3-1 delegate lead in Senate District 19, and the primary delegates should remain 65-61 Clinton.
The voters will never elect a Muslim candidate!
One of the trolls slobbers:
Tell that to the good people of MN-05.
Not that this attempted slur is in any way relevant to the presidential campaign.
45-ONCE AGAIN!!!! OBAMA IS NOT MUSLIM!
See Stupes. This is how your crowd does.
Do you understand now why we want them to go?
@47 How do YOU know that Obiwan is not a Muslim? What is that allous on his forehead?
Remember, under Shariya one cannot renounce Islam. If BHO entered school as a Muslim, he is till one today.
But so what?
McCain is an aetheist, he converted in Nam.
Clinton is an antisemitic Methodist.
Thse are all bad deals.
BADDAD BUSH@19 THE FIRST TIME THEY PULLED YOUR ARMS OUT OF YOUR SOCKETS YOUD SCREAM AND TURN YOUR MOTHER IN YOU LITTLE ROACH.HOW MANY YEARS WERE YOU A POW?THOUGHT SO FUCKIN DIMWIT.PEOPLE LIKE YOU SHOULD FUCK OFF AND DIE.
Clueless Idiot@48: I think #49 asked you a question.
@ 20 “nuf said.”
Now, where have I seen that before?
@ 43 “PU says:
puddy@29 that would be obama on crack. ”
Buddypud, where is your outrage at such a racist comment from one of your wingnut brethren?
BO ARE YOU SAYING OBAMA DID NOT DO CRACK.AND DOES BO STAND FOR BODY ODER.JUST ASKIN