Of all the “too close to call” races this election, the easiest to call is R-71, which reaffirms the “Everything But Marriage” bill that passed the legislature last session.
Election night results have the measure passing by a mere 2 percent of the vote, a margin well within the swing that routinely occurs during Washington’s weeks long ballot counting process. But I have damn good reason to believe that R-71’s margin will significantly expand, not shrink as the ballots are tallied.
I base this assumption on the disproportionate number of ballots left to be counted in populous King County, which so far has voted 61 percent in favor of the measure, versus the ballots remaining in the 29 counties that voted against it. As of 8:15 pm last night, King had counted only 23.55% of registered voters, but projects a final turnout of 56%. The other 38 counties have thus far tallied 30.66% of voters, with a statewide turnout projected to top out at around 51%.
Punch the current numbers through a spreadsheet, play around with turnout rates, and any way you run it, R-71’s margin of victory expands. That is, assuming late voters didn’t dramatically trend toward the No side of the ballot… a trend for which there is absolutely no evidence.
My educated guess? R-71 passes by a comfortable 4 to 6 point margin.
UPDATE:
The folks at the Washington Poll run pretty much the same spreadsheet, and come up with pretty much the same numbers.
I voted for R-71, but I didn’t feel very strongly about the proposition either way. Congratulations to those who put this initiative on the ballot. Let’s see what happens next.
Can we loan some R-71 Yes votes to Maine? :-)
bbbbut your assumption fails to account for susan hutchison’s miracle.
I’d imagine that the No on 71 crowd was pretty motivated and got their ballots in early. I’d say 4-6% is a good call.
The way demographics and beliefs are trending gay marriage will be legal and no big deal inside of a decade from now regardless of how I-71 turns out or what the haters say.
@4:
Yeah, but, as witnessed by Maine, said haters are gonna fight it every step of the way.
The trend doesn’t look good to me:
last night R-71 was at 51.13%
today another 11,096 votes were counted (bringing the total votes counted to 1,002,599),
and the margin went down to 51.03 %
With just one percent more votes counted, we lost .1%.
Isn’t this a bad trend?
Can King County really carry it?
Oh, how I hope so. Please say you took this all into account already.
The Maine result is bad news, but I guess on issues like this I prescribe to Goldy’s slippery slope theory: time is on the side of more and better civil rights, and with “everything but marriage” passing a popular vote here, surely this will get similar measures going in other states.
Social conservatives can it pay it now or pay it later.
The frustration for me is the nagging feeling that the results could have been a larger percentage of Yes votes…except…. too much time and energy was lost in court battles by both sides, both of which were unnecessary and mean. The battles drew people’s attention away from the real issue–Civil rights–as well as interfered with the important message: A ‘Yes’ vote SUPPORTS civil unions.
Without all that legal noise, we might have been able to pull in a stronger finish.
How come every time I check the Seattle Times (did just now) the margin is SHRINKING…not growing? Last night it was approved by 52%. This morning is was approved by 51.10. Now it’s 51.03%. Where is the ‘gain’ you keep talking about? The trend is the other way. ?
If similar to King county, the “other 38” counties ALSO only have about 30% of their vote counted, and they’re OVERWHELMING opposing this…how exactly is this a good thing?
dmay @ 6 and GSF @ 9,
Most counties have not updated their totals since last night. The four that have are:
— Douglas (approve 32.6%, reject 67.4%)
— Lewis (approve 33.8%, reject 66.2%)
— Pend Oreille (approve 33.4%, reject 67.6%)
— Pierce (approve 47.2%, reject 52.8%)
Hence, the updates have all appeared to eat away at the “approve” lead. When the numbers are projected out for all counties, the measure looks pretty certain to pass.
Thanks Darryl!
@1 I’m not gay — I fuck every cute fluffy female bunny I can get my dick into, because Nature designed me to be a fucking machine, to propagate the spread of my species — but I feel very strongly about this referendum. That’s because I’m a small “d” democrat who believes in equality and doesn’t like the bigoted idea that some folks should be treated worse because some other folks don’t like how they live. Protecting the abused from their abusers is always a big deal, and that’s what R-71 is really about.
We just took a step towards religious oppression in america.
@13
Dude, take off the tinfoil hat. R-71 (or gay marriage for that matter) has nothing to do with your church.
@14 dude, R71 is not about civil rights. It’s about how those who oppose what is natural finding a way to change laws to help them deal with their unatural affections.
It doesn’t bother you people that you are all TRULY assholes?