Updated twice.
The SOS processed another 5,815 R-71 signatures yesterday, and as expected, the percentage of duplicate signatures increased again. 7 dupes in the first batch, 16 in the second, 22 in third; it’s almost exactly what my spreadsheet predicted.
The raw invalidation rate in yesterday’s batch was also the highest thus far, coming in at 14.4 percent, nearly two full points above the 12.43 percent threshold. That brings the raw invalidation rate on the 17,317 signatures processed to date to 12.99 percent. Adjusting for duplicates, and removing from the count the 49 signatures not on file, the invalidation rate on the total sample is now running at approximately 14.55 percent, up only slightly from the total for the first two batches.
While it should be noted that these numbers do not technically represent a random sample, at 12.5 percent of the total signatures submitted, it is already sufficiently large enough to predict R-71’s failure with a high degree of certainty.
Update [Darryl]
This figure shows the required signatures and, for each data dump, a statistical estimate of the expected signatures required.
The estimate of total signatures adjusts for both duplicates and invalid signatures, and to be conservative, I have assumed that all of the “missing signature card” signatures will be found and counted as valid.
There are error bars showing standard sampling error for each day—they are tiny for yesterday’s dump. Clearly, if sampling error is the only error involved, there is no way R-71 will pass. Even after the first data dump day, there was slightly under an 8% chance the final count would put R-71 on the ballet.
The graph does suggest substantial error other than sampling error (i.e. the big swing from day 2 to day 3 that is way outside sampling error), but there is now a huge amount of ground to make up. Still, with only 12.6% of the sample counted as of yesterday, there could be some surprises.
Update 2 [Darryl]
Oops…When I looked back at the program I used to estimate the number of valid signatures I had entered 150 instead of 45 as the number of duplicates (150 is actually the total number of no-matches found so far). So here is the corrected figure:
Correcting the number of duplicates makes a huge difference in a qualitative interpretation. Now, it looks like there is very little non-sampling error (and very little sampling error). If so, this pretty much spells doom for R-71.
From
yourSam Reed’s spreadsheet to God’s ears…PS. Enjoy that ride on the Pennsylvanian! If you’ll be in Pittsburgh before Tuesday, wanna take a side trip to Fallingwater?
If the sub-sample is NOT random, then you may make NO statement with “near certainty” – unless the sub-sample contains enough rejects by itself to disqualify the referendum.
How can you say that while simultaneously saying you have no legitimate basis for the claim? Please be serious and stop pretending to be serious.
I wouldn’t bet the ranch on R-71 failing. But I wouldn’t be the outhouse on it passing.
The samples may not be random but they are matching Goldy’s spreadsheet closely then it is probably pretty close to random.
bluenose @2,
It’s not like counting ballots, which come in batches from various precincts, or absentee ballots where batches can represent late swings voter sentiment. There’s no particular reason why the invalidation rate in one sizable batch should differ greatly from another, or that the petitions should processed in any particular order. There will be some variation, but there’s absolutely no reason to expect it to be substantial, and so far, the adjusted invalidation has strayed little as the size of the sample has expanded.
Anti-gay R-17 FAIL
Anybody want to make a prediction that if the referendum doesn’t gather enough signatures that the backers will claim a conspiracy?
I will.
I predict R-71 backers will have hung their hat on the early rejection rate, be surprised and confused when it keeps increasing, conveniently ignore the well-articulated math about increasing duplicate rates here, and attribute the final failure as manipulation by a shadowy force that is vaguely evil and contrary to their god.
For a sidebet I’ll even speculate somebody will call Reed a RINO in the process.
Matty @7,
Which is one of the reasons I’ve emphasized that math matters. There was never a point, not even after the relatively low raw invalidation rate of the first batch, where the state’s own statistical sampling formula would have projected R-71 to qualify.
OF COURSE there will have been a conspiracy. Half the right-wing loons I work with are absolutely convinced that the last gubernatorial election was rigged.
Oh well, even IF this does fail, it’s not the end. They can just cut & paste the text and maybe try to stop Jews from moving into gentile neighborhoods, keep the Irish from infecting our culture, or do something about black people marrying whites! If Bruce Willis could marry Halle Berry our way of life, our very civilization, our CHILDREN, would be at risk!
Won’t SOMEBODY think of the CHILDREN!
@10 Yeah, I’m sure they’re convinced they gotta stop this NOW or same-sex couples will PROCREATE!!!
[bunny laugh track playing in background]
@11
Yeah, I’m torn on this issue. Part of me doesn’t even want to respond BECAUSE it’s so insane, so batshit crazy, so obviously stupid. It’s like listening to folks swear we have pass laws to stop the moon people from coming to earth to eat us. You WANT to laugh at them and just brush it off, but then you realize they’re SERIOUS and they really believe the moon people are real. So then you have to spend time actual fighting the crazy.
These folks are SO insane, they really think if you pass a law, people will in mass turn gay, stop having babies, society will crumble, straight people will stop getting married now that they let just anyone get married. It’s insane. But crazy as they are, we’re having to respond (sigh). It’s so funny it’s sad.
Goldy,
You need a copy editor…and badly.
Which is it – R – 17 or R – 71? And read your copy closely because you use the two interchangeably.
If you want credibility, be fanatic about accuracy.
The Piper
Goldy, could you quantify “high degree of certainty” and show us how you calculated it? Math matters, as you say.
Any real statisticians out there?
Folks, please go to WAFST.org and find out how you can help prepare for what is still a real possibility. Referendum 71 voters will be asked to APPROVE or reject the domestic partnership law on the November ballot.
~~~~~~~~~~~~
Ballot Title
Statement of Subject: The legislature passed Engrossed Second Substitute Senate Bill 5688 concerning rights and responsibilities of state-registered domestic partners [and voters have filed a sufficient referendum petition on this bill].
Concise Description: This bill would expand the rights, responsibilities, and obligations accorded state-registered same-sex and senior domestic partners to be equivalent to those of married spouses, except that a domestic partnership is not a marriage.
Should this bill be:
Approved ___
Rejected ___
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
@14
If this were a random sample it would be toast (well over 99% chance they fail to have enough signatures). The SOS is not using exactly a random sample. I wouldn’t bet that it makes the ballot if you gave me 100-1 odds.
@15 Jeff, how did you calculate that? I see a lot of “certainty” being bandied about, but ZERO proof that it is based on valid statistics. Didn’t your math teachers make you show your work? Turning in “answers” just doesn’t cut it, especially when those answers have the potential to undercut our readiness should the referendum qualify.
Lurleen,
I’ll provide some methodological description after the data dump this evening.
@13 “If you want credibility, be fanatic about accuracy.”
Indeed. You’ve lost all credibility because of your own typos, Piper. You know, like the ones I pointed out to you last week that you had made in a posted comment criticizing others for doing that very thing.
“You need a copy editor…”
Speaking of which, what do you think a copy editor would have to say about those dot, dot, dots of yours, Piper?
As I’ve said a number of times, Piper, the smugness you bring here is entirely unwarranted.
Piper @13,
Oh God… a typo, jet-lagged, operating on a couple hours of sleep, after a redeye…! You’re right, I have no credibility at all.
(The Times, on the other hand, quotes a fictional person from a fictional business in a lede, and they’re very credible.)
@17 Thanks Darryl
Lurleen @14,
My high degree of certainty is admittedly a little less scientific than Darryl’s, and is partially based on what I understand of how the SOS processes signatures, and the historical invalidation and duplication rates in past initiatives and referenda. Darryl is right that surprises can happen. But as far as I know, there is no precedence for such a surprise, and no reason to expect the remaining signatures to be substantially more accurate than those that have already been processed.
Fair enough Goldy. As long as opinion isn’t conflated with bona fide statistical analysis, I’m fine with it. Since people’s civil rights are at stake, I think it pays to remember that, against all odds, people do win the lottery now and then. It’s simply too risky to ignore the possibility of those surprises Darryl mentions.
Lurleen,
See update 2. After my correction there appears to be no real evidence of non-sampling error, and not enough sampling error to matter.
A contrarian thought (please feel free to talk me down):
Wouldn’t it be better to have this crap on the ballot so we get our folks out to vote and help defeat Tim Eyescum’s latest attempt to destroy the state (1033)?
This is an off year: don’t we need a motivator to balance the Timster’s Usual Suspects (including what’s left of the christianist bigots in this state)?
I’m worried, either way.
@13 I suppose next the ex-lawyer and self-styled human resources expert Pipin’ Pooper is gonna say Goldy should “get a real job” (in this economy???) or venture even farther into Wonderland and disparage Goldy’s ability “to hold a job.” (Haven’t you ever heard of “entrepreneurial talent,” Mr. Expert? Real Americans don’t work, they’re Entrepreneurs, everyone knows that!)
I was raised in the 50s, when our schools trained young Americans to be good employees, and much emphasis was placed on “work ethic.” Back then, being “able to hold a job” was a key measure of a person’s worth to society.
What happened? Well, the free marketers tell us the free market is the most efficient mechanism for determining a person’s value to society, and what the free market has been telling us for the last 40 years is that work has little or no value. Just look at America’s track record since the 60s:
1. The people making big money don’t work — they don’t make or fix anything — they trade. And trading, of course … whether you’re flipping houses or stocks or shiploads of oil … is a zero-sum game because traders add no value whatsoever to whatever it is that’s being traded.
2. Society disrespects work. Workers are looked down on. Among the elite, having to work for a living is considered gauche. If you’ve attended an upper-upper-middle-class garden party recently, you’ve probably heard one of those upper-upper-middle-class kept wives sniff haughtily about a hapless neighbor, “Oh, she works,” with the same inflection one would use if saying, “Oh, you’d better stay away from her, because she has typhoid and is contagious.”
3. Wages are subjected to punitive taxation, whereas capital gains and dividends receive favorable tax treatment, and trillions of inherited dollars are never taxed at all. This illustrates the contempt that society, whose values are reflected in the enactments of Congress, has for work.
4. The official and corporate policy of America in recent years has been to ship American jobs to third world countries as fast as possible, and to reward companies with tax breaks and larger profits for putting American workers out of work.
5. The ascendancy of cheap labor conservatism in American politics since the early 80s reinforces the notion that working at a job that involves producing or fixing things has little to no economic value in the New Economy. Throughout the 80s, 90s, and 00s, the fastest growing U.S. industry has been financial services, which produces nothing but simply collects fees for lending people money. Debt has replaced work as the engine of the American economy. Without debt, the bankers can’t make any money, and banking is the only industry left that still employs anyone on U.S. soil.
Goldy, and others like him, are simply recognizing the New Reality that working for a living is a thing of the past in America and that the “work ethic” and “work values” of the 50s are quaint anachronisms of the past which are interesting only to nostalgia buffs.
There simply is no reason for our schools to teach kids work skills, a work ethic, or how to “hold a job.” Frankly, they’ll be better off — and will live longer — if the schools replace shop classes with target practice classes, so they at least have a chance to defend themselves and live long enough to reach age 18. In any case, learning work skills and work ethic is about as useful in the Real Economy as knowing how to set printing type by hand or run a linotype machine. How much do you think linotype operators earn these days? A lot less than currency traders or oil speculators, that’s for sure!!!
No, we need to train kids to live in a zero-sum economy, in which the goal of all economic and political activities is to take money from other people and give it to yourself. There is a finite supply of money, and you can get it only by taking it from someone who’s got it! The most important skill in the New Economy is not working but grabbing! Those who grab successfully are rewarded with high-flying lifestyles and low-or-no taxes. The free market says so, and the free market is all-wise.
Therefore, don’t go around saying “Goldy should get a real job.” That’s the dumbest thing he could do. Goldy is doing exactly what he should be doing: Patching together a network of supporters and a skein of economic activities. His activities run the gamut from part-time broadcasting gigs to helping reinvent journalism. He probably should add public records lawsuits to his portfolio, though, because there’s a real opportunity there to take money from other people and put it in his own pocket, without producing anything of value in the process — just ask Stefan, a pioneering Public Records Entrepreneur — about that. Be that as it may, whatever Goldy does, he shouldn’t even consider working or holding a job, because society puts no value on that at all.
@19…Goldy…
The Times has been around a lot longer than you. And I’m only applying the selective standards of objectivity and fairness that you employ yourself: there are some to whom no grace is extended while there are others whose sins are never held to account.
The Piper
@19 “(The Times, on the other hand, quotes a fictional person from a fictional business in a lede, and they’re very credible.)”
Journalism, as presently practiced by those who own big printing plants, needs a lot of reinventing. (See commentary @25.) There’s reason for optimism, though, because newspapers like the Seattle Times probably are destined for the same fate as linotype machines — their era is over, their time has gone, and the owners of big printing plants are losing their stranglehold on the gathering and dissemination of propaganda to energetic young Public Opinion Entrepreneurs like Goldy.
Oh, I took statistics courses in college (and got A’s in them), and I understand the mathematical arguments … but there’s a side of my little bunny brain that rebels against the whole notion of statistical prediction. I mean, just because you flipped a quarter 50 times and it came up heads 50 times in a row, why does that mean it has to come up tails the next 50 times you flip it? The physics of that is baffling. To a rabbit, anyway.
So, the signatures are what they are. It seems to me the statistical tally of R-71 signatures has no effect whatsoever on the remaining uncounted signatures. There’s either enough signatures, or there aren’t. How many invalid signatures there are so far doesn’t change any of the signatures still to be counted.
Predictive statistics is different from retrospective statistics. The latter is merely a description of actual observed phenomena. The final tally of signatures is simply a statement of what happened. Using some signatures to predict whether other signatures are valid strikes me as some sort of voodoo.
“others whose sins are never held to account”
Oh, you mean like your own typos and grammatical errors?
@26 So has an old-growth tree that is about to be cut down, or an ancient coral reef that is about to die from CO2 poisoning, but I think the relevant question here is who’s still going to be around in the future.
@24, people don’t “go out to vote” anymore in Washington state. Except for Pierce Co., everyone is voting by mail and can vote as soon as they receive the ballot. Campaign strategies need to be updated accordingly. Hey, but thanks for being willing to potentially sacrifice the civil rights of domestic partners for some other measure. Much appreciated! / snark /
@ 29,
I’m more interested in the lies Mr. Scott tells than his typos.
@26 “The Times has been around a lot longer than you.”
So has an old-growth tree that’s about to be cut down, or an ancient coral reef that’s dying from CO2 poisoning, but the relevant question is who’s more likely to still be around tomorrow.
The Times has been losing money for years, if you believe Frank Blethen, which raises an interesting question. Frank’s enterprise has to pull in lots of revenue because it has lots of expenses, and it has to make money or die. Goldy’s enterprise may not have much revenue, but it doesn’t have many expenses either, and seems better positioned to survive a low-profit or no-profit environment. Which raises an interesting question about which business model, Frank’s or Goldy’s, is more likely to endure.
@ 26
The Times has been around a lot longer than you.
Which means, what? That the Times is more senile than Goldy is?
Back to Scotland, Piper, where maybe somebody has some respect for you or your opinions.
@34 Maybe the word you want for this context is “ossified.”
They don’t KNOW you in Scotland, Piper, you might be able to impress the less literate of them for a while. Just don’t play your bagpipe, they can’t listen to you if they are laughing too hard.
@32 The typo thing is only brought up because it’s symptomatic of the seemingly endless Piper hypocrisy.
@35 Let us hope not, as that certainly wouldn’t reflect well on Scotland.
They have lots of sheep there…..
@38 Or the hypocrisy of broader wingnuttery. One of the hallmarks of the Extreme Right is the rampant inconsistency and hypocrisy of their pontifications. Molesting children is bad, except when they do it; spending taxpayers’ money like water is bad, except when they do it; profligate excess is bad, except when they do it; even vulgar assaults on the King’s English and Decorum are bad, except when they do it. Everything they condemn, they turn around and do, and they always create an exception for every bad thing they do. It makes your head spin.
@40 That explains a few things … such as who Pooper’s mother was.
(Oh man, I couldn’t resist that one!)
@34…DJ…
Do you mean to imply that Goldy is senile – at least in part? When you say that The Times is more senile than Goldy, you imply that Goldy is at least somewhat senile.
With friends like you, he needs no enemies.
The Piper
Lurleen @31: I mispoke. I do understand that we’re almost all mail in. I’ll try to do better next time.
And you misunderstand me (I hope): I absolutely support equal rights and gay marriage.
I was thinking outloud that maybe our side would return their ballots at a greater rate if 71 is on the ballot, in an off year election, in which the other side (including the bigots) will be returning their ballots in greater numbers since Dunmire’s Butt Boy has qualified 1033 for the ballot.
Do you think differently? Too risky?
@29…Steve…
If you search the archives, you will find that when I make make a grammatical mistake and it’s pointed brought to my attention, my usual response to thank the erstwhile critic for pointing it out to me in order that I might not repeat it.
We all benefit by not taking umbrage at legitimate criticism.
And just so everyone will know – I was born in Pocatello, ID, not the United Kingdom. I happen to play a unique musical instrument that requires a particular national style of dress be worn during either competition or performance.
As an aside…read this.
The Piper
@ 43
Do you mean to imply that Goldy is senile – at least in part?
It’s all a continuum, Piper.
And, by the way, I didn’t say that anyone is senile. I asked you what your comment meant. It’s amusing that someone as pedantic about language as you pretend to be would manage to not understand what it means when someone puts a “?” at the end of a sentence.
Piper Scott,
“If you search the archives, you will find that when I make make a grammatical mistake and it’s pointed brought to my attention, my usual response to thank the erstwhile critic for pointing it out to me in order that I might not repeat it.”
And…you would probably be thanked more often for pointing out typos if you weren’t such an asshole about it.
I’ll just point that out as an error we both make :-)
No need to thank me.
I won’t bother with noting all the grammatical errors in Piper’s comment @46.
@46 “As an aside…read this.”
We applaud when a crooked Democrat is busted. When a Republican does wrong, wingnuts just make excuses or even ignore it.
Oh, and bye the bye, I don’t think I’ve ever ragged on bagpipes. Hell, I’ve shopped for some myself. However, for recording purposes, I presently just use my Motif synth.
@50…S…
If you ever have the desire to shop for a pipe, let me know. I can give you pointers on what to look for and what to avoid. In all seriousness, it’s not something the unaware should do without some coaching. And, if you’re so inclined, I can even give you the names of some of the better teachers in the Seattle area.
The Piper
@48…Darryl…
I actually went back in to edit that sentence – apparently I didn’t do a good job. Thank you for pointing it out to me.
The Piper
I might just take you up on that someday, Piper.
Rowdy Roddy @46:
Where “this” is a WaPo story on the conviction of former Democratic Representative William Jefferson.
Perhaps Rowdy Roddy should read how the reality-based community reacts to such news. Read the comments too. DailyKos readers are quite satisfied that Jefferson was convicted, because corrupt public officials need to face the long arm of the law and be subject to penalties when they act in a criminal manner. Jefferson has no apologists here, none at all.
How did RedState and other such sites on the Rowdy Roddy side of things respond to the convictions of Duke Cunningham, et al.? I’m sure it was very similar … NOT.
Piper, I’ve heard that beginning pipers buy a chanter first, to learn the fingering, and afterwards get the pipes themselves? There used to be a Scottish shop in downtown Burien, but I couldn’t find it last time I looked. Further thoughts welcomed on this subject. Thank you
@47…DJ…
Question mark or not, you raised the issue of senility – I didn’t.
And when you raised it, you did so comparatively. Again, using a word you introduced, you placed both The Times and Goldy on a continuum of senility. Your use of the intransitive verb “is” at the end of your question clearly links to Goldy himself in a way that conveys your meaning that he is, to some degree, senile.
Words can be fun…
The Piper
Piper @52
You’re welcome. Although my snark wasn’t pointing out typo-type errors.
@54…NinS…
Crooks should be in jail. No one delights more in the jailing of them than do I. And I do so irrespective of their political affiliation.
Again, a search of the HA archives will disclose that I have been as hard, if not harder, on Republicans who misbehave than anyone. All I ask is actual evidence before I pass judgment. And I don’t condemn an entire class of people to criminality merely because of their political affiliation. Sadly, however, many of the HA Happy Hooligans delight in exactly that.
The Piper
@55…PV…
The Scottish Shopper disappeared from Burien long ago. It was purchased by Hector Russell, Ltd. out of Scotland, relocated to downtown Seattle, but it, too, has disappeared.
Wouldn’t be the place to go for a pipe in any event.
And you are correct – a chanter is mandatory for anywhere from six months to two years before picking up a pipe. A teacher is also mandatory since this isn’t an instrument that lends itself well to learn-on-your-own.
Tartan Town in the Vacouver, BC area can advise you. It’s owned by Terry Lee, PM of the Simon Fraser University Pipe Band, the reigning grade one world champion.
Tartan Thistle on Whidbey is owned by Terry’s sister, Maureen. They used to have a retail store, but a couple of unfortunate fires confine them to mail order and selling at Highland games.
If you’re serious about a pipe, expect to spend at least $1,200. A decent practice chanter (full-sized with pipe-chanter spacing) will run $100 or more.
Under no circumstances should you ever buy a pipe that’s not made in the UK or, maybe (and it’s a decidedly reserved maybe) the US. Never from India or Pakistan – they’re cheap in every sense of the word, which makes them a wall decoration, not a musical instrument.
As the man says: You get what you pay for.
The Piper
@59 I used to stay at the Inn at Spanish Bay down at the Pebble Beach golf complex. Spanish Bay is a links course designed by Tom Watson, winner of five Claret Jugs, and damn near a winner of a sixth at the age of 59. Each evening a bagpiper would play to the setting sun, and I just loved it. So cool! A tip of the hat to the roots of the game. Chambers Bay in Tacoma, with it’s Scottish-style links course should consider doing such a thing. Maybe you local bagpipers could approach them about it.
@60…S…
There a lot of pipers in Tacoma, including a band, the Tacoma Scots.
However – and it is a big however – the cost to a golf course for a piper each day would run, at a bare minimum, $1,500/day. Whether one tune or ten, the price is the same because, to the piper, his prep is the same.
When I played with the Elliott Bay Pipe Band, we did a golf course big-deal gig down at Sunriver – nice.
The Piper