I stayed up late last night watching the election results come in, when clearly my time would have been better spent speculatively writing about the results, uninformed. Ah well.
Obviously, the big winners last night were the Supreme Court and Appeals Court incumbents, who all won reelection yesterday by securing 50% plus one majorities (and for the most part, much higher) against their opponents… assuming they had one. So much for that “throw the bums out” attitude. Gov. Gregoire also appears to be a big winner, improving her performance in county after county… but you’ll just have to wait for me to digest the incomplete results and my morning pot of green tea before I comment any further.
One interesting result is that in the 11th, Margarita Prentice, never met a payday lender or userer she didn’t like, D Incumbent, will face another D in November because of the top two primary.
That must be the first time an incumbent will face a challenger from the same party in general election. There will be other races featuring two members of the same party, but I don’t believe any others involving an incumbent.
joel maker’s mark connelly haz mancrush on rossi:
“[dino] is a mellow, appealing guy, a fine salesman, expert at working a room and sizing up an audience.”
next week joel, dino, and sheriff hairspray do 3 way.
Rossi is toast. Hopefully after he loses this election, he’ll go back to lying about his real estate credentials, or whatever it is he does to be a rich Republican asswad.
Also, I got two ballots stuck together by mistake. The poll workers noticed it before I did, took the ‘bad’ ballots and gave me a new one.
I think we had a decent turnout at our polling place, by the way.
Last, this morning on the radio on the drive into work, I had to hear party officials whining about the top two primary. I agree, it isn’t as good as our old open primary. But the parties fucked the pooch on that one, didn’t they? So IMHO, at this point they should drink a big cup of STFU.
Reading the articles about yesterday’s primary results, it just struck me how much Rossi is like George W. Bush in 2000.
Remember that in 2000, George W. Bush portrayed himself as a successful businessman (despite having been bailed out every business venture before it went bankrupt, and given his position as head of a sports team). He portrayed himself as a “new” Republican, a “compassionate conservative”, whatever the hell that means. He complained that the vibrant U.S. economy with a projected budget surplus for the first time in anyone’s memory was in dire danger of collapsing from excessive government spending, and that tax cuts were needed. He spoke about the need for “change” in a government where everything was actually running pretty well.
Of course, we know how that all turned out. Budget surpluses turned into record-breaking budget deficits. Idiotic foreign military adventures by Bush administration chicken-hawks who think war is like playing a video game with unlimited lifetimes available. The Constitution trashed in the name of “national security”. Laws re-written to protect the profits of businesses at the expense of the ordinary American. The federal treasury looted, it’s gold going straight into the pockets of the Republican financial interests. Inflation/stagflation re-appearing in the wake of continued deficit spending.
So I couldn’t help but muse about what might have happened if there was a serious manual re-count of all the votes in Florida in 2000, and if, perhaps, Gore had won by some 500 votes, rather than the other way around. Bush would have spent the next four years complaining about how he was “robbed” of the election, and complained about how Gore was “ruining the country”, and otherwise said pretty much the same things Rossi is now saying about Gregoire. We Democrats would still be complaining that Gore is a “stiff” campaigner, just as we complaining about Gregoire.
Anyway, interesting similarities.
yep, yep. glad to see the BIAW get kicked in the gut last night. That is, everybody but me! Oh, wait, I got my hiney kicked too.
At least I know my math. 45% is better than 34% last time. Even though it’s still the same result…”Soy, un perdador, I’m a loser baby, so why don’t you kill me.”
Man nothing makes me happier than to think of the cunts at the BIAW wasting all that money and getting the shit kicked out of them. YEAH!
Dino is losing by almost exactly the same amount (percentage-wise) as Burner is. So, if Rossi got his ass kicked, so did Darcy, right? Right?
In reality, neither result means shit. For those two races, this primary was more meaningless than the 2nd exhibition game in the NFL, where the starters don’t even suit up.
notaboomer @2: Jesus, get a grip. The description of Rossi is apt, he is smooth and capable of great charm. Yeah, if you look a little closer the image is disturbing, but it isn’t like he has fangs or tentacles.
Let’s see now: McKenna, Reed, Martin, Sutherland… turns out you can win a statewide office as a Republican, or a member of the GOP Party. Just not if your name is Rossi!
@ 7
Except for the fact that Republicans over perform in low-turnout primaries like these, especially statewide, where every county but King has all mail voting (which keeps turnout high). This means that Dino Rossi could not win in the most favorable of conditions, and Darcy kept it quite close in the least favorable of conditions. So there’s at least a qualitative difference, if not a quantitative one.
@ 9
You are full of shit, historically. In the past 30 years Democrats have performed better in the total % of vote in the primary than in the General.
Putting aside facts for the moment so as not to confuse to rabble in here — anyone who thinks that ANY incumbent R or D will be happy getting under 50% of the vote is FULL OF SHIT. Bergeson, Reichert and Gergoire should be very concerned, as should Doug S.
Alternatively, every other incumbent statewide (in both parties) is fine.
By far the most satisfying moment of last night was seeing John Ladenburg lose his home county. He is as corrupt an SOB as exists in this state and seeing those who know him best vomit him out like a piece of bile was the icing on the cake to his ass-whipping.
Yawn…
i did some wasl math, gave burner the votes that were cast for those proudly wearing the democratic label, and gave torture boy reichert the votes from the no party doods. result as of now: 38944 for he who loves teh bush and 38320 for she who wants to stop giving trillions to blackwater and halliburton. 624 votes.
@9 –
Some ugly little facts to go along with your speculation, kemosabe:
2004 – Ross defeated Reichart in the primary
2006 – Burner defeated Rechart in the primary
You already know the results in both general elections.
Facts are inconvenient things.
Or maybe, here is your spin… the loser in the primary always wins the general?
@ 13
Not sure what you mean by “defeat” in a primary, since we had a different primary at the time. Top two primary is different than what we had then, when voters had to choose a party’s ballot.
In an environment that favored him, Reichert could not beat Burner by five points. While slow-witted Dave still has the advantage, these results are nothing for him to take comfort in.
@10:
McKenna is not only a stupid fool – he is a partisan hack with little to no real courtroom experience. His screw-ups have cost us money. He is unqualified.
Your slander against Ladenburg is just that – have any real facts? thought not….
The interesting thing, I thought, was the total Democratic primary vote outpolling Riechert.
In the general election, with Obama at at top of the ticket and the record Demcoratic turnout we expect, Dave Reichert should be very, very concerned.
We have to look at the blanket primary results prior to 2004 to predict the general election results. In the blanket primary, voters could choose the best candidate in each race, regardless of party. The 2004 and 2006 results were not so meaningful, since voters were stuck voting for the party that they had picked.
In the three previous blanket primary races for Governor, there was a higher Republican percentage in the primary, than in the general election. The average R total in the general election was 5.74% LESS than the R total in the primary:
November 2000 General
Governor
Candidate Party Votes Percentage
Gary Locke D 1441973 58.38%
John Carlson R 980060 39.68%
Steve W. LePage L 47819 1.94%
September 2000 Primary
Governor
Candidate Party Votes Percentage
Gary Locke D 701929 54.32%
John Carlson R 446142 34.52%
Harold Hochstatter R 93467 7.23%
Meta Heller D 28578 2.21%
Steve W. LePage L 22186 1.72%
2000 D Primary – 56.55%
2000 R Primary – 41.75%
2000 R General Drop – 2.07%
November 1996 General
Governor
Candidate Party Votes Percentage
Gary Locke D 1296492 57.96%
Ellen Craswell R 940538 42.04%
September 1996 Primary
Governor
Candidate Party Votes Percentage
Gary Locke D 287762 23.65%
Norman Rice D 212888 17.50%
Ellen Craswell R 185680 15.26%
Dale Foreman R 162615 13.37%
Jay Inslee D 118571 9.75%
Norm Maleng R 109088 8.97%
Jim Waldo R 63854 5.25%
Pam Roach R 29533 2.43%
Nona Brazier R 21237 1.75%
Brian Zetlen D 6152 0.51%
Warren E. Hanson R 4886 0.40%
Bob Tharp R 4825 0.40%
Jeff Powers SWP 3742 0.31%
Mohammad H. Said D 3007 0.25%
Max Englerius D 2837 0.23%
1996 D Primary – 51.89%
1996 R Primary – 47.83%
1996 R General Drop – 5.79%
November 1992 General
Governor
Candidate Party Votes Percentage
Mike Lowry D 1184315 52.16%
Ken Eikenberry R 1086216 47.84%
September 1992 Primary
Governor
Candidate Party Votes Percentage
Mike Lowry D 337783 29.23%
Ken Eikenberry R 258553 22.37%
Sid Morrison R 250418 21.67%
Dan McDonald R 144050 12.47%
Joe King D 96480 8.35%
Sally McQuown D 31175 2.70%
Richard B. “Ornery Dick” Short D 8470 0.73%
Bob Tharp R 8103 0.70%
Wayne Madsen D 7860 0.68%
Mike The Mover IC 6645 0.58%
Kathleen Wheeler SW 6068 0.53%
1992 D Primary – 41.29%
1992 R Primary – 57.21%
1992 R General Drop – 9.37%
Average R General Drop (1992-2000) – 5.74%
@16: Poor Reichert could not find the Green River killer in front of his nose – how do you expect him to analyze and interpret data – I say you are setting the bar way too high for him.
Excepting the King County vote, Rossi barely beat Gregoire in the balance of the state, only about 12,000 votes. If that same relationship holds in November Gregoire will win by a large margin. If she keeps it close in the rest of the State the King County vote will swamp him.
Gregoire has the November Election in the bag.
No need to campaign for or send any more money to Governor Gregoire. It’s in the bag.
I believe the next 80 days will look like this:
Rossi attempting to educate people on State Government Finances & Taxes….and the impact of Gregoire’s $8 BILLION of increased spending.
Gregoire attempting to paint a rosey picture that everything is fine, no tax increase needed, no spending cuts needed. Don’t worry, be happy mantra.
Rossi has a huge task ahead of him. Most citizens don’t have the ability or desire to look at State Government spending. However, they do know about taxes. Voters continue to approve local levy’s…then bitch when the tax bill comes.
But their is a Tax Saturation Point. When approx. 49.3% of the citizens feel they are over-taxed, change will occur. You can see numerous European Country’s going thru it. The LEFT paints a picture of Utopia…less work hours/government does more for you. Life is good. The RIGHT comes along and cleans up the mess when handouts piss off enough people to the point where they say NO MORE.
Do 49.3% of Washington Citizens feel overtaxed?
If so, can Rossi convert that into votes.
It will be interesting to watch.
The vast majority of small business owners feel overtaxed and over-regulated as evidenced by Rossi’s endorsements.
Can Rossi create a connection to non-small business owners about the importance of a healthy small business community?
Bottom-line:
Some people are offended deeply by ineffective, inefficient, wasteful government.
But more people are offended when they make the connection to their own pocketbook.
Close Race.
My guess is come November, it will be decided by less than 1 point.
Christine Gregoire also ran three races of her own for Attorney General during the 1992 to 2000 time frame. In each of these races, the Democratic percentage increased from the primary to the general election, with an average D general increase of 2.36% for Gregoire’s three AG elections:
November 2000 General
Attorney General
Candidate Party Votes Percentage
Christine Gregoire D 1292887 55.98%
Richard Pope R 883002 38.23%
Richard Shepard LBP 90941 3.94%
Luanne Coachman NLP 23685 1.03%
Stan Lippmann NM 19120 0.83%
September 2000 Primary
Attorney General
Candidate Party Votes Percentage
Christine Gregoire D 660851 54.51%
Richard Pope R 469507 38.73%
Richard Shepard LBP 51495 4.25%
Luanne Coachman NLP 15869 1.31%
Stan Lippmann NM 14639 1.21%
2000 D General Increase – 1.45%
November 1996 General
Attorney General
Candidate Party Votes Percentage
Christine Gregoire D 1280955 60.04%
Richard Pope R 756639 35.46%
Richard Shepard LBP 58672 2.75%
Luanne Coachman NLP 37320 1.75%
September 1996 Primary
Attorney General
Candidate Party Votes Percentage
Christine Gregoire D 640031 57.32%
Richard Pope R 415191 37.18%
Richard Shepard LBP 37314 3.34%
Luanne Coachman NLP 24031 2.15%
1996 D General Increase – 2.72%
November 1992 General
Attorney General
Candidate Party Votes Percentage
Christine Gregoire D 1190784 54.88%
Norm Maleng R 946946 43.64%
Homer L. Brand PP 32124 1.48%
September 1992 Primary
Attorney General
Candidate Party Votes Percentage
Norm Maleng R 490311 45.90%
Christine Gregoire D 377792 35.37%
John Ladenburg D 177198 16.59%
Homer L. Brand PP 22922 2.15%
1992 D Primary – 51.96%
1992 D General Increase – 2.92%
Average D General Increase – 2.36%
Looks like the gov. and 8th will be close, but it will probably go dem. However, on a statewide look, McKenna looks safe, Fearing in the 5th doesn’t stand a chance, the 4th stays R, and lots of our local leg. R’s look to hold their seats (even those that are turning over). I also find it amusing that in a strong Dem. turnout year, Goldmark isn’t even winning his home county! Tsk, Tsk, and I was expecting such a Democratic blowout!
Have a nice day,
Farmer Fred
It was a good night for democratic party candidates. The Gov did well and Doug Sutherland has a real race on his hands. The shocker though was out in the 5th LD where Glenn Anderson is 50/50 with a first time min reporting Democrat right in Rossi’s home district. David Spring may just be the one who starts the turn from R to D in the 5th LD.
@15
McKenna won a 9-0 victory at the US Supreme Court against partisan assholes on both sides. “McKenna is not only a stupid fool – he is a partisan hack with little to no real courtroom experience.” How many times have you won at the US Supreme Court John?
As for Ladenburg, where to begin…some (but by no means all) of the the most egregious of his ethical lapses are: 1.) his surplus/slush fund over the past four years paying for booze, fancy trips and meals and nights out (all generously funded by a cast of characters that would make the seediest Pierce County hack blush) and 2. his personal investment in and public promotion of a failed drug treatment that he strong armed Pierce County into pissing away taxpayer $$ on before agreeing it was a failure and 3.) using public funds for promotion of a political cause.
But trying to convince you of the obvious is a fool’s errand, the people of the state (incuding his home county!) have spoken and spoken loudly. Watch state and national dems abandon him like rats from a sinking ship as they work to save Gregoire. As I said before, by FAR the sweetest moment of the night was seeing your boss (or you) get his ass handed to him.
Nice try, thanks for playing.
PS I actually think Ladenburg was considerably closer to Richard Pope’s numbers than Mckenna’s.
Trying to draw significant conclusions from this Primary by comparing comparing results with past General Elections and past Primary’s is a good activity for self-absorbed, stars in the eyes naval gazers.
Richard, it appears you have concluded Gregoire has this race in the bag. Is that what you are saying? I’ve already guessed it will be a 1 point Election…either way.
What is your prediction….give me a 2 point range.
It’s fun to try & amateur prognosticate.
Frankly Richard, there are sooooooo many variables that must be identified and addressed in any professional analysis….don’t you agree?
In the Primary, some County’s have higher turnout due to local issues
Q- Why are there no Democrats who label themselves as ‘Compassionate Democrats’?
A- Because it’s the norm for Democrats to be compassionate, just as it is the norm for Republicans to be callous liars.
So, when a Republican (who is by definition a callous liar) calls himself ‘Compassionate’, it is becoming increasingly clear to the American voter that it is another Republican scam.
Republicans are losing their demographic, as well. Retarded, racist, rural, middle-aged white men are becoming a scarcer commodity every election cycle.
Their bilious, hate-filled minds are killing their bodies in record numbers. I hope to live long enpough to see their worthless asses as politically dead as Jefferson Davis.
Attacking Fort Sumter and then declaring the resultant war the ‘War of Northern Aggression’ is the sort of inane, twisted logic we’ve come to know from the Christian Clerical right of our own era.
We all know that the ‘Religeous Right’ is code for white, southern racists.
We can’t make very good predictions for this November without knowing what the real turnout was yesterday. With all the mail voting, we won’t have the final ballot tally until the end of next week — but it appears that it will be substantially below the Sec. of State’s prediction of 46%.
Given that the Dem’s did as well as they did, with apparently low voter turnout, and with the Obama phenomenon/voter turnout machine in full gear for the next vote, I cautiously predict a Democratic blowout in November.
Particle Man @ 23
I heard that Glenn Anderson has been extremely lazy in his re-election campaign in the 5th LD to date. If he gets up off his ass, he can probably pull off a win by a couple of points in November. The other incumbent Republicans in the 5th LD had 15 point leads over their challengers. David Spring worked his ass off to win favor with mail ballot voters. Anderson actually had a strong lead among poll voters yesterday, and is currently 1.24% ahead. Spring could come back out on top, once the rest of the mail ballots are counted. But this is one race I will predict a Republican win in November, although it will be extremely close.
Mr. Cynical @ 25
Richard, it appears you have concluded Gregoire has this race in the bag. Is that what you are saying? I’ve already guessed it will be a 1 point Election…either way.
What is your prediction….give me a 2 point range.
I will predict that Gregoire will win by 3 to 5 points over Rossi in November 2008. I think I will be on the low side, but I have enough of a spread to work with, so that I am only predicting 3 to 5 points in order to be safe. :)
Richard–
Only 3-5 points???
Seems like your talking points would have lead you to a much higher margin.
I guess if Gregoire wins by 2 points, we tie!
AnyWAY, this is the fun side of politics.
No one who reads this Blog will be swayed to change their mind on who they vote for.
It’s just for fun.
I feel sorry for anyone who believes reading HorsesAss.org will somehow make a Rossi voter become a Gregoire voter. Anyone who believes that is more than half a bubble off.
Whether it’s a sign of just how bad the economy has gotten, or merely sweet justice, GM just can’t find a buyer for Hummer. Even the Chinese aren’t interested:
http://www.reuters.com/article.....1320080818
Q- Why are there no Democrats who label themselves as ‘Compassionate Democrats’?
A- Because it’s the norm for Democrats to be compassionate, just as it is the norm for Republicans to be callous liars.
These types of responses really don’t add much
Republicans are losing their demographic, as well. Retarded, racist, rural, middle-aged white men are becoming a scarcer commodity every election cycle.
It appears that the current Secretary of State does not meet this criteria…
I have been a registered Democrat since 1982 and comments like this really have no place in politics… Try and come up with something alittle more original next time.