Ah well, it looks like the timid status quoists are in full spin mode.
Covering the on-again/off-again prospects of a tax increase measure, Austin Jenkins reports for both KUOW and Crosscut that as weak as public support is for a sales tax increase, an income tax fares even worse:
The sales tax garnered better than 50 percent support if it included a tax rebate for working families and if the money raised was used to support hospitals, nursing homes, and other health care programs. […] The income tax proposal polled under 50 percent even if the money was dedicated to education and health care.
Huh? That’s not what I heard. And while I’m not sure I’ve seen the polling detail to which Jenkins refers, clearly, neither has he.
Or maybe I have. Here’s how Jenkins describes the poll in question:
I got my hands on a summary of the poll that was given to the Senate Democratic Caucus. It’s not the complete poll, and I don’t have a sample size or margin of error; however I believe 800 likely voters were polled. The poll was taken last week — right when people were filing their taxes and there were anti-tax demonstrations all over the country, including at the State Capitol in Olympia. The health care groups who paid for the poll say it was the “worst possible” week to be asking voters their mood on taxes.
Huh. I too have seen a poll of 800 likely voters, conducted last week, the worst week possible for asking voters their mood on an income tax… although unlike Jenkins, who reports on a summary passed on to the Senate Dem Caucus, I got to see some of the actual details:
Three tenths of one percent sales tax for working families tax rebate and Health Care Trust Fund For Basic Health Plan
(Total Approve) = 40%
Definitely Approve: 16%
Probably Approve 17%
Lean Approve 8%
Lean Reject 4%
Probably Reject 12%
Definitely Reject 22%
Undecided 21%3% state income tax on individuals making over $250K
(Total Approve) = 47%
Definitely Approve: 27%
Probably Approve 15%
Lean Approve 5%
Lean Reject 2%
Probably Reject 8%
Definitely Reject 35%
Undecided 8%
Hmm. Perhaps there were two polls of the exact same survey size conducted at exactly the same time on the exact same subject? And no doubt the pollsters asked these questions in multiple ways, pushing different strengths and weaknesses, so perhaps Jenkins’ data is just as valid as mine? And yes, it is very difficult to make an apple to apple comparison when it comes to polling data.
But no, the impression that some Democratic lawmakers have been spinning to reporters, that an income tax fares worse in the polls than a sales tax hike, simply isn’t true. In fact, the data I’ve seen from last week’s poll shows exactly the opposite, with an income tax out-polling a sales tax 47% to 40%. Meanwhile, what support there was for a sales tax increase was incredibly soft, with only 16% responding “Definitely Approve,” compared to 27% for an income tax.
And that is consistent with all the other polling data of seen. A recent Elway Poll showed an income tax slightly out-polling a sales tax, 53% to 51%, while a March 2009 poll, again a survey of 800 respondents, surprised income tax proponents and detractors alike with the proposal’s initial level of support:
“This measure would establish a two percent state income tax only on income above $300,000 a year for individuals or above $600,000 a year for married couples filing jointly. If the election were held today, would you vote to APPROVE this referendum, or would you vote to REJECT it?”
(TOTAL APPROVE) = 56%
DEFINITELY APPROVE 37%
PROBABLY APPROVE 16
[LEAN APPROVE] 3
[LEAN REJECT] 3
PROBABLY REJECT 7
DEFINITELY REJECT 30
[UNDECIDED] 5
Considering the income tax is purported to be the third rail of Washington politics, those results aren’t bad, and arguably represent a more neutral survey of the public’s initial impression than one conducted while voters were in the midst of filing their federal returns.
I’m not a big fan of poll-driven lawmaking, but since one side in this debate is attempting to discredit the high-earners income tax by pushing cherry-picked data to lawmakers and reporters, I feel the need to set the record straight. There has not been a single poll this session that has shown top line support for a sales tax hike to be significantly higher than that for a high-earners income tax, while all the polls show what support there is for a sales tax increase to be unnervingly soft. That’s why the health care coalition has been backing away from the sales tax proposal… their well justified fear of the squishy middle.
Yes, neither proposal has polled above 60 percent, the magic number the initiative and referendum industry considers the bare minimum level of initial support for a ballot measure to warrant a substantial financial investment. But as the surprising level of support for a high-earners income tax has already shown, conventional wisdom can sometimes be wrong.
Back in June of 2005, polls showed support for Initiative 912’s repeal of the 9.5 cent gas tax increase to be running as high as 70 percent, yet once voters learned the costs and consequences of the measure, it failed in November by a comfortable ten point margin. Likewise, in 2006, opponents were initially concerned about support for Initiative 920’s proposed repeal of the estate tax, but after voters learned revenue was targeted to education, the measure was trounced by a resounding 24 point margin.
Washington voters have recently proven their willingness to tax themselves for the services and investments they want and need. And they’ve proven even more willing to tax the wealthy.
And while that final sentiment may be derided by some as a call to “class warfare,” it is hard to make that argument with a straight face in the state with the most cruelly regressive tax structure in the nation.
Am I reading this right? Is Goldy advocating governance by poll? Interesting.
Say what you will about our state tax structure — this is just not the time to increase taxes on Washington residents. The conventional wisdom holds because the economy is so difficult. This isn’t the year that state residents are going to surprise everyone at the polls and vote to increase their own sales tax. The surveys the past week or so show this to be true.
So it’s time for the Legislature to get the message. Somehow the sales-tax increase passed out of committee this morning, but it shouldn’t get much further, certainly not the ballot. Go to our website <a href=”http://www.notimefortaxes.com” or our Facebook page <a href=”http://www.facebook.com/home.php#/pages/No-Time-For-Taxes/73033443706?ref=nf”and join the conversation about Washington budget issues.
How about a grassroots initiative campaign that requires a vote on the income tax . I’m sure it wouldn’t take long at all for a citizen’s initiative to collect the signatures to demand an income tax now .
This kind of lie used to go unchallenged. With the copious tubes of clogged Internets we now have, it is easier to call a spade a spade when it comes tojournalistic lying.
(Yes, Marvin Stamn. I did say ‘call a spade a spade’ just to tweak your ever vigilant gaze for anything that a Progressive might say that you could characterize a ‘racist’. And when you begin to dun Troll and sock-puppet of truth for their overt racism, I may take you seriously. But until then, take a hike.)
Goldy cannot help himself proposing tax increases in a recession. It must come from the KLOWNstein side of the family.
Give it up Goldy.
The Income Tax is not tax neutral…therefore it is a MASSIVE tax increase.
It ain’t gonna happen during a recession.
re 5: And what is it that you have correctly predicted in the past?
At HA is pro-tax increase all the time. Goldy is in overdrive!
Crusader–
– Norman Thomas (6-time Socialist Party Presidential Candidate)
–Karl Marx
From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs.
#2 K
Nonsense. What are you, 14?
If not, then stop frothing for a moment and think back back, back, to those mist-shrouded days of 2001, 1990, 1981…
Q: What did local governments do during those recession?
A: They raised taxes. Well, fucking duh. We need to keep funding critical services such as education, so when revenues drop, we raise revenues.
Bullshit. We should avoid taxes that hurt the poor and the unemployed, but the rich and the well-employed have to pony up to keep the schools (and etc.) running. It has been done in every recession. We cut taxes after each recession, too. Your lack of memory does not constitute a universal truth.
5 Cyn
First, I’ll just guess that you don’t know what the fuck you’re talking about. After all, why should today be different from other days? For example, could you explain what the fuck a “tax-neutral” income tax would be? For the moment I’ll assume your ignorance and futher assume that you mean revenue-neutral.
BUT, and that’s a big butt, would you support a revenue neutral income tax?
Schmudget has an update up about Basic Health funding. It’s a bit over my head.
http://schmudget.blogspot.com/.....ebate.html
But, I do know that taking people off Basic Health doesn’t save us any money, it just shifts the costs away from the general fund.
Deep thought:
Prosecuting the torturers, those who ordered torture, and those who justified it is not vengeance, it is enforcing the law.
Daddy Love..you pot-smoking idiot spews:
For example, could you explain what the fuck a “tax-neutral” income tax would be?
Duh..
It means the Income Tax would generate the same revenue as the tax it replaces CURRENTLY generates….you idiot.
Obviously this is not part of your TAX INCREASE ALWAYS vocabulary.
Wake up and grow up.
I might support a tax-neutral income tax…if it were done with a bullet-proof Constitutional Amendment that precluded any other taxes being raised OR the income tax rates being raised without a 2/3 vote of the people.
http://www.pollingreport.com/
Hey CYNCYN – stop raping kids and start telling the truth.
Obama job rating approval/disapproval:
Cook/RT Strategies RV
60%/30%
Ipsos/McClatchy
63%/33%
Pew
61%/26%
CNN/ORC
66%/30%
CBS/New York Times
66%/24%
ABC/Washington Post
66%/29%
How much would a 2% OVER 300k/600k raise???????
@8:
“When fascism comes to America, it will be wrapped in a flag and carrying a cross.” — Sinclair Lewis, 1935
“If this were a dictatorship, it’d be a heck of a lot easier, just so long as I’m the dictator.” — George W. Bush, Washington, D.C., Dec. 19, 2000
I guess it’s just a matter of figuring out which totalitarianism you want to serve under…
re 8: Your a priori notion is that socialism is BAD. But it’s not.
If you were A SOCIALIST, you’d be of the Stalinist type. Democratic socialism is what most modern democracies have, but in the U.S. the propaganda that’s been catapulted for several generations is that it’s an evil political philosophy.
Fear mongering socialism has its counterpart in marihuana propaganda.
It’s just a way for creeps like you to turn a buck.
re 14: I want fair tax cuts. If a person earning 50 grand a year gets a $1,000 tax break, I think that the person earning 250 grand a year should have a $1,000 tax break as well.
Given your penchant for demanding regressive consumption tax increases that disregard % of income that is expended by each taxpayer, how could you be against tax breaks that are figured the same way?
Unless % of income is actually a fair way to apportion taxes.
Tithing is 10% of your income regardless of how small or large your income is. Tithing is God’s way of figuring taxes.
13-14
That’s not “tax neutral,” it’s “revenue neutral” Jane you ignorant slut.
But your proposed contstitutional amendment is never, ever going to happen, so why not just grab your balls and state that you oppose an income tax, Jane you ignorant slut?
@13: Poor cynical doesn’t even know what the term “tax neutral” means – cuase what he means and how he defines it is revenue neutral. Thanks for showing us what an idiot you are cynical.
And by the way – the income tax would be added on – it is not replacing another tax – so your third-grade level explanation is wrong and stupid.
Your entire “thesis” (to really stretch what your constant drivel can be termed) is inaccurate and wrong.
Try to learn what you write about before you present yourself as a total fool and maroon.
Curious how Mr. C is so eager to pontificate on how we in Washington should tax and govern ourselves, considering he doesn’t live here.
I suppose his inevitable response (other than to disparage my intelligence, sanity, parentage and personal hygiene) will be to claim that he should have a voice because he owns property and does business here.
Bull. If he wants to barge in and mess around in our sandbox, he can damn well abide by our rules.
@23 He says he’s from Wisconsin. He says he doesn’t live here. And yet sometimes he does. Montana? Lacey? Whatever. He said he sold his rental houses at the peak of the market, later he says he still has his residential rental properties, and now commercial properties, too. He said he got out of the stock market when the DOW was at it’s peak in 2007 and has been sitting on cash, but then tells us all about the $100,000 he made in the market 2008. Go figure.
I can only conclude that he’s not only a pathological narcissist, he’s also a lying sack of shit who can’t keep his stories straight.
Regarding http://www.notimefortaxes.com: The site appears to be sponsored by the Business Industry Political Action Committee at http://www.bipac.net. BIPAC is governed by a board of directors that includes Boeing, Weyerhaeuser, Halliburton and the Business Roundtable.
e 24: “Hey oooooooooh!!!!” (Ed McMahon style)
CYNCYN the child rapist has told so many lies here he can’t keep them straight. Like all Publicans, he’s 10 feet tall as long as he’s in his momma’s basement. They’re all cowards. What else is new?