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Today’s a good day to buy stocks: the market’s down over 300. Take advantage of the fear on Wall Street.
Bad As It Looks?
Maybe not. Ten days ago, Newsweek’s electoral vote map gave Obama 228 EVs, McCain 185 EVs, with 125 EVs up for grabs.
Since then, the map has solidified, with nearly all of the undecided states turning color — and the tally now is Obama 273, McCain 265. In other words, McCain has erased most of the EV gap that existed before the “Palin bounce.”
But Obama still wins.
@1 Yeah, find yourself a failing bank to invest in. WaMu’s stock is cheap now. But whatever it’s selling for, it’s still overvalued by that much, because the company is broke and its stock is worthless.
@2: If McCain can only get to parity with a convention bounce, he’s not in good shape. Once the shine goes off Palin, and old conservative / independent men realize that the fuckability of the VP is not a good way to choose a ticket, he’s going to hemorrhage support.
How Good Are Newsweek’s Numbers?
A bit soft, but everyone’s are. Newsweek uses the electoral vote map put out by “RealClearPolitics,” a Chicago-based nonprofit organization founded in 2000 by a commodities broker and an advertising man. Their methodology aggregates data from “quality sources” and averages various polls. While the averaging method has been derided by some experts, it’s beginning to enjoy a little more respectability in academic circles.
But the fact remains that this year the polls are all over the place, and lots of journalistic observers are calling their reliability into question, and offering up various explanations of why the polls are not to be trusted. And most of them are saying the numbers are skewed to McCain, meaning the GOP Party’s ticket isn’t riding quite as high as the polls suggest, but you could also argue that might be wishful thinking on their part.
I would guess that McCain’s strategists feel less than easy with the current state of the race. Certainly, their aggressive use of lying attack ads attests to something less than confidence in their camp. They’re literally sacrificing McCain’s reputation as a straight shooter to save their ass, and they wouldn’t be doing that if they didn’t think their ass is in a wringer.
Meanwhile, we’re still fifty-odd days from the election and a lot could change in this dynamic race over the next few weeks. And many analysts think “the post-convention glow” represents the high water mark for GOP Party ticket and it’s likely downhill for them from here as voters begin to zone in on issues. And if McCain and Palin are indeed peaking at this point of the campaign — Obama is still ahead in electoral votes at the peak. So, if we assume things get better for Obama as we move closer to the election, our side is gonna win, although all signs point to a squeaker and Democrats and their supporters can’t afford to let up for an instant. This is a battle that must be fought with everything we’ve got right up to election day.
@2 See #5. I don’t know that McCain will “hemorrhage” support. I think the story here is that he still needs more support than he’s got right now, because the Palin bounce hasn’t put him over the top, if RCP’s electoral vote tally is believed.
It’s noteworthy that RCP’s electoral vote map shows Obama winning without Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, or Virginia. But with the EV count that close, Obama can’t afford to lose a single one of the swing states that RCP awards to him. His 273 EV total depends on winning Michigan, Minnesota, and Colorado. Of course, if he can pick off one of the four big states listed above, then he can afford to lose Colorado or even Colorado plus Minnesota. No chance of Obama winning Florida and little chance of picking off Virginia, in my opinion, but Ohio and possibly even North Carolina are in play. The big difference this year is that Republicans no longer control Ohio’s election apparatus, so it’s going to be harder for them to shut down voting in Democratic precincts and stuff the ballot box in that key state this time.
Dow Closes Over 450 Points Down
Meanwhile, oil prices (and gas prices at the pump) continue plunging in the wake of Hurricane Ike, which knocked out at least 10 production platforms in the Gulf. What’s going on?
Well, if your memory is any good, you’ll recall that gasoline prices fell before the 2004 election, too. Then shot back up after the Gas and Oil Party was “reelected.”
If you think the oil companies aren’t trying to influence the election outcome by manipulating prices right before the election, I have some Louisiana swampland I want to sell you.
You can bet your ass that pump prices will squirt back up after the election. Look for $5 gasoline by next March and $6 by July 4.
Rog–
Just bought 2000 shares of NOV @ $49.81.
Short-term play due to oversold market.
If you like NOV…buy more NOW!
The scary thing about the financial meltdown is this isn’t the worst of it. The Federal Reserve is pumping vast amounts of paper money into circulation to stave off collapse, and eventually they’ll have to raise interest rates and tighten money supply to deal with the massive inflation this is creating. That’ll come after the election, of course. When it does … look out. The McCain Depression could exceed even the Reagan Depression.
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI)
Change: Down 504.48 (4.42%)
Wahooo! Go McCain
It’s no accident this kind of shit always happens on the GOP’s watch.
Capitalism is inherently self-destroying, and the GOP’s antipathy to regulation and messianic belief in “free markets” always flings the vault doors open to pirates who take advantage of freedom from government to engage in wholesale looting. That’s what happens when you have no government (i.e., laws or police) in a disaster zone, and that’s also what happens when you have goverment (i.e., laws or police) guarding the economy.
Capitalism is also inherently wealth-concentrating, and not everyone loses in an economic downturn. Recessions and depressions destroy wealth, but they also result in further concentration of wealth. These economic events are not Acts of God or random acts of nature; they’re man-made. And man makes them because some men vastly profit from them. When there’s no government (i.e., no laws or police), these looters have a field day, too.
The fact is, unregulated capitalism doesn’t work. Left to its devices, it eventually leads to an economy where so few people have so much of the wealth, and economic activity is at such a low level, that the vast suffering of everyone else results in overthrow of the system and substitution of something else. In many societies, the “something else” has been either communism or fascism, under which even fewer people prosper (but a self-chosen few prosper mightily).
We’ve always considered capitalism the lesser evil, and indeed it is, because the concentration of wealth and privileges, and the degree of official army-backed authoritarianism accompanying it, seems less. But a lot depends on what kind of capitalism you have.
The unregulated, freebooting, laissez-faire capitalism advocated by our idiotic wingnut friends destroys free markets and individual freedoms (how much freedom does a starving man have?) and eventually leads to totalitarianism and an even worse economic system.
What works is the liberal concept of regulated capitalism, which is nothing more than the sensible idea that you need laws and police to forestall looting. In the 1930s, FDR saved capitalism, and saved America from the communists. The capitalist class hates FDR and has never given him credit for saving their hides, which he did. Today’s capitalist class is hell-bent on undoing what FDR did and shoving America onto the path of capitalism’s self-destruction and down the slippery slope of economic catastrophe toward Leninism or Francoism or some other damned -ism as fast as they can.
They should all be shot.*
* Just kidding! I’m merely mimicking Ann Coulter’s humor. I’ll settle for locking up the pirate capitalists and the wingnut traitors who support them for life without possibility of parole or furlough. Put ’em on bread and water — that’s what they’re doing to the rest of us, and if bread and water is good enough for the working class, then it’s good enough for them, too!
Wow, Dow is -504.48 at the close. It’s amazing what a failed businessman can do to a once strong economy in only 8 years.
My Turn on I-1000
Since I have generated so much heat, esp from thehim, it seems only fair to offer how I would like to see I-1000.
1. The legislation should make available an option of termination of life for any individual whose physician can offer no alternative relief from pain and suffering attributable to the illness.
2. The job of the physician shall be to certify that the individual has no other options. This declaration should include known options and explain why those can not be used.
The declaration must be co-signed by the senior administrator responsible for patient care and by any insurance provider.
3. Cost of treatment is not considered an acceptable option unless such a treatment exceeds the patients available resources or is more than than $2 million dollars in one year, whichever is greater.
4. All such declarations, and there outcomes, will be reviewed by the institutional review board to assure that patient’s rights are fully protected.
5. Parties with a familial or contractual interest in the patient must be notified of this decision and of their rights under this law.
6. Approval for use. The patient or an individual with the designated power of attorney may bring the declaration to a judge to request approval of suicide. At this time, any person objecting to the decision under item 5. may seek to express an opinion.
7. Death by this means shall be considered natural for all purposes including determination of rights under insurance policies, inheritance, and rights of partners in business.
@9 Good move, Cyn. Oil prices will shoot up after the election, and after global warming throws a few more monster ‘canes at the Gulf Coast’s petro complex. But right now I like foreign-flag shippers who pay no U.S. taxes and send natural resources, food, and jobs to China even better than oilfield services. My shipping stock pays a 10% dividend yield and is 40% off its share price a month ago. It has already bounced back up to that price 4 times this year. Wooo-hooo I’m gonna be a rich fucking bunny! No more jobs or commuting for me! Fuck work! I’m a Capitalist now!
@13 The only amazing thing is that it took this long. If voters are stupid enough to elect McCain it won’t take him 8 years to finish off the American economy. We’ll be in a major depression by next summer.
Top 20 donors to Obama for 2008 election cycle, with financial services indicated:
Goldman Sachs $689,280 **
University of California $531,070
JPMorgan Chase & Co $449,671 **
Citigroup Inc $411,504 **
Harvard University $407,452
University of Chicago $396,339
UBS AG $390,000 **
Google Inc $379,212
Lehman Brothers $365,922 **
Skadden, Arps et al $358,121
Sidley Austin LLP $356,345
Kirkland & Ellis $351,714
Moveon.org $347,463
Morgan Stanley $314,638 **
Exelon Corp $310,911
National Amusements Inc $298,500
Microsoft Corp $280,425
Time Warner $279,859
Jones Day $266,705
See http://www.opensecrets.org/pol.....=N00009638
for an industry breakdown.
Top 20 donors to McCain for 2008 election cycle, with financial services indicated:
Merrill Lynch $293,010 **
Citigroup Inc $251,851 **
Goldman Sachs $223,995 **
Morgan Stanley $212,821 **
AT&T Inc $187,673
Blank Rome LLP $175,326
JPMorgan Chase & Co $169,625 **
Greenberg Traurig LLP $154,687
Credit Suisse Group $144,525 **
Bank of America $120,625 **
Pinnacle West Capital $119,250 **
Lehman Brothers $115,800 **
UBS AG $114,315 **
US Government $112,101
Wachovia Corp $110,462 **
PricewaterhouseCoopers $109,270
FedEx Corp $108,253
Hess Corp $95,050
US Army $92,007
Blackstone Group $91,500 **
See http://www.opensecrets.org/pol.....=N00006424
for an industry breakdown.
It would be interesting to know to what extent either of the candidates were critical of the investment practices of these contributors, and the banks, lenders, rating agencies, and the various regulatory agencies (SEC, FHFA, etc) in general over the last several years or so.
Yes you Yahoos, political contributions tell it all
For instance Goldman Sachs – Robert Rubin remember him…
2008 $4,301,151 $3,148,850 $1, 152,061 73% 27% Donkey vs Republican
2006 $3,492,716 $2,166,411 $1, 292,355 62% 37% Donkey vs Republican
Hedge Funds
2008 $12,025,977 $8,278,869 $3 ,747,108 69% 31% Donkey vs Republican
2006 $3,513,240 $1,234,493 71% 25% Donkey vs Republican
Yes, this financial crisis is all non-Donkey…
Why didn’t the lawyers get involved
2008 $152,294,654 $114,577,212 $37,597,496 75% 25% Donkey vs Republican
2006 $85,293,588 $34,368,006 7 0% 28% Donkey vs Republican
Commercial Banks
2008 $12,215,037 $13,385,283 4 8% 52% Donkey vs Republican
Lehman Bros. gave 3 times more to O-blah-blah than McCain.
The numbers speak for themselves.
Roger @ 3,
I don’t deal in individual issues. I’m a fund investor, so buying on down days is what I try to do in my retirmement accounts.
I used to deal in individual stocks, but I find mutual funds easier to work with and easier to measure year-to-year portfolio performance.
If your total wealth is not growing, just one or two individual issues, you’re not making any progress.
I love the comparisons
If you’re a minority and you’re selected for a job over more qualified candidates you’re a “token hire.”
If you’re a conservative and you’re selected for a job over more qualified candidates you’re a “game changer.”
If you live in an Urban area and you get a girl pregnant you’re a “baby daddy.”
If you’re the same in Alaska you’re a “teen father.” (Actually, according to your own MySpace page you’re an F’n redneck that don’t want any kids, but that’s too long a phrase for the evil liberal media to take out of context and flog morning noon and night).
Black teen pregnancies? A “crisis” in black America.
White teen pregnancies? A “blessed event.”
If you grow up in Hawaii you’re “exotic.”
Grow up in Alaska eating mooseburgers, you’re the quintessential “American story.”
Similarly, if you name you kid Barack you’re “unpatriotic.”
Name your kid Track, you’re “colorful.”
If you’re a Democrat and you make a VP pick without fulling vetting the individual you’re “reckless.”
A Republican who doesn’t fully vet is a “maverick.”
If you say that for the “first time in my adult lifetime I’m really proud of my country” it makes you “unfit” to be First Lady.
If you are a registered member of a fringe political group that advocates secession that makes you “First Dude.”
A DUI from twenty years ago is “old news.”
A speech given without proper citation from twenty years ago is “relevant information.”
And, finally, if you’re a man and you decide to run for office despite your wife’s reoccurrence of cancer you’re a “questionable spouse.”
If you’re a woman and you decide to run for office despite having five kids including a newborn with Downs Syndrome… Well, we don’t know what that is ‘cause THAT’S NOT A FAIR QUESTION TO ASK!
Vol. 2
If you get 18 million people to vote for you in a national presidential primary, you’re a “phoney.”
Get 100,000+ people to vote you governor of the 47th most populous state in the Union, you’re “well loved.”
If you are biracial and born in a state not connected to the lower 48, America needs darn near 2 years and 3 major speeches to “get to know you.”
If you’re white and from a state not connected to the lower 48, America needs 36 minutes and 38 seconds worth of an acceptance speech to know you’re “one of us.”
If you give your wife a dap on stage, it’s actually a “terrorist fist jab.”
If your daughter licks her palm so that she can slick down your youngest child’s hair on national TV it’s an “adorable moment.” (Seriously, forget about abstinence only, teach these folks some grooming skills).
If your pastor rails against inequality in the United States of America, you’re an “extremist.”
If your pastor welcomes a sermon by a member of Jews for Jesus who preaches that the killing of Jews by terrorists is a lesson to Jews that they must convert to Christianity, you’re a “fundamentalist.”
If you’re a black man and you use a scholarship to get into college, then work your way up to being the president of the Harvard Law Review, you’re “uppity.”
If you’re a conservative and your parents pay your way to Hawaii Pacific University . . . you only have four more schools to attend over the next five years before you somehow manage to graduate (it might be five more school over the next five years. No one has yet verified whether or not Palin was actually ever registered at the University of Hawaii at Hilo. But, you know how shady people are who ever attended any kind of school in Hawaii).
If you’re 18, white, and get a 16 year old girl pregnant “life happens.”
If you’re 18, black, and impregnate a 16 year old girl, you’re a “registered sex offender.”
If you spend 18 months building a campaign around the theme of “Change,” it’s just “empty rhetoric.”
If one week before your party’s national convention you SUDDENLY make your candidacy about “Change,” that’s “red meat.”
If you are a Democrat, an Independent, or even a moderate Republican, if you’re female, male, white, black, Asian, Hispanic, bi-racial, multi-ethnic, or GLBT, if you’re a Jew, Gentile, Muslim, agnostic or atheist – “Yes, we can!”
If you’re a pitbull with lipstick from Alaska, “Yup, yup!”
If you are a Democratic male candidate who is popular with millions of people you are an “arrogant celebrity”.
If you are a popular Republican female candidate you are “energizing the base”.
If you are a younger male candidate who thinks for himself and makes his own decisions you are “presumptuous”.
If you are an older male candidate who makes last minute decisions you refuse to explain, you are a “shoot from the hip” maverick.
If you are a candidate with a Harvard law degree you are “an elitist-out of touch” with the real America.
if you are a legacy (dad and granddad were admirals) graduate of Anapolis, with multiple disciplinary infractions you are a hero.
If you manage a multi-million dollar nationwide campaign, you are an “empty suit”.
If you are a part time mayor of a town of 7000 people, you are an “experienced executive”.
If you go to a south side Chicago church, your beliefs are “extremist”.
If you believe in creationism and don’t believe global warming is man made, you are “strongly principled”.
#
If you’re a 13-year-old Chelsea Clinton, the right-wing press calls you “First dog.”
If you’re a 17-year old pregnant unwed daughter of a Republican, the right-wing press calls you “beautiful” and “courageous.”
if youre Jamie Spears your parents are pinheads because you got pregnant (O’Reilly on Fox) but if youre Bristol your mom is eminently qualified to be VP …
#
If you are a conservative and reveal that your son will be deployed on Sept. 11, but that is only the date of the deployment ceremony, you are the mother of a patriot who is doing the best to confuse the terrorists and protect the troops being sent over.
If you are a democrat and would announce the same thing, you would be called as pandering to the public and trying to garner public emotion through a lie.
If you’re a Democrat and compare a Hockey Mom to a Pit bull you are sexist.
If you’re a Republican and compare a Hockey Mom to a Pit bull you are Sarah Palin.
#
If you are Barack Obama, your trips to Iraqi war zones don’t count because you disagreed with the surge.
If you are Sarah Palin, a refueling stop in Ireland counts as foreign policy experience.