Since I’m getting a lot of traffic from the AP article on bloggers obsessively tracking the vote count in the governor’s race, I thought I better play my assigned role, and provide some updates throughout the day.
So here are the latest totals out of approximately 2.8 million votes cast:
Time Rossi Lead Projected Margin Ballots Left 10:30am 1935 3417 41423 11:05am 1948 3419 41273 12:45am 1988 3405 38873 04:10pm 1974 3359 36573 05:00pm -657 1365 27493 06:45pm -158 1430 21666
Gregoire now holds a 158 vote lead after King County reported 17,000 votes this afternoon… a bit of a surprise considering King County had previously reported only 11,000 ballots left to count. However, based on the remaining distribution of uncounted ballots, Rossi is still projected the winner by 1430 votes.
For those D’s looking for a glimmer of hope… perhaps you should look elsewhere. It has been pointed out to me that I was wrong in saying Maria Cantwell picked up 1500 votes in her recount… she only picked up 306.
But it certainly looks like we’re headed for a recount.
For those D’s? Aren’t you a democrat? You should be saying, “For us”. Or do you want Rossi to win?
The full statement was “For those D’s looking for a glimpse of hope.” I’m a D, I’m just not looking for a glimpse of hope.
According to toher blogs, 60% of uncounted are in rossi leading areas ;-(
Yes, the majority of ballots left are in counties that went to Rossi. However, the majority of ballots left are provisional, and these tend to break more heavily towards Democrats. So I suppose it is possible we could see Gregoire make up some ground.
I’ve been running my own spreadsheets too, and while I agree with your analysis, which pretty much falls out of the numbers, I do wonder how accurate various counties have been over the years in reporting the number of outstanding ballots left to count.
Having said that, I have to note that even if you zero out all the remaining counties but King, and only project forward ballots from King (based on overall vote results, not late ballot results), you still end up with Rossi winning by a dozen votes or so. I suspect Bennett was more attractive to disaffected maybe D voters than maybe R voters.
Aaron, you raise a good point. Some counties have in fact over reported remaining ballots in the past… this issue has been raised by the righties on SoundPolitics.org. And past experience says Gregoire will do better in the provisional ballots. So I guess there is some hope there.
As to Bennett, I couldn’t begin to speculate. Libertarians tend to draw from Republicans. But a lot of her votes may indeed come from independents who wouldn’t have voted otherwise.
Is there a way to know how many remaining ballots are provisonal vs. absentee by county?
Oh heck, speculation is the best part! Take a look at who Bennett is, and you’ll see why I think she drew from Ds more than Rs. I disagree that Ls are more R than D these days, my direct experience with Ls tend toward traditional D issues than R issues.
The Ls really tork me off. While I am sympathetic to the underlying principals behind their political philosophy (who doesn’t want to keep bureaucrats out their hair?) I think they are ignorant of history and the ways of power. The number one obligation of a progressive is to work to form a majority, which is what the regressives (Rs) have done so well…
But I rant. Sorry. I just really find Rossi extra slimy and smarmy. His ads about tidying up government in six months for the cleansing forces of “business” really took the cake. Too bad it looks like he’ll win.
Not without finding a cooperative person in the elections commission of each county. But I think it is safe to assume that they saved the hardest ballots to verify for last, so the bulk of those left are probably provisional.
Aaron, the thing I like best about Libertarianism is that it is a consistent and honest ideology. Honestly, I think it is consistently stupid… but consistent and honest nonetheless. I can respect Libertarians for their consistency and honesty, even if I disagree with their agenda.
I would have less problems with our friend Mr. Eyman if he were honest about his libertarian agenda. But then, we’d all have less problems with him, as he and his initiatives would be instantly marginalized.
There was a point when I feared the Jeff Kemps and William Welds were going to take over the GOP and make libertarianism a force to be reckoned. But the religio-fascist wing of the party effectively purged them.
You should be looking for a glimpse of hope.
Jenny, there’s none for the Gregoire people. Really unless they keep playing whiny games or those ballots are all Gregoire because I am tempted to think they’re fake. That said, the Rossi folks are gonna be gracious… Respectfully, getting worked up into a panic is respectfully not healthy. Being a Republican doesn’t necessarily make you a 1-eyed monster with tank treads for feet with a loudspeaker for a mouth… although there are far too many of them like Dubya, O’Reilly, Cheney, etcetera. So in that factor, I have hope. I hope one day very soon, a new invigoration of democracy will being. I also have hope that a (potential) Rossi administration will act with restraint – he has acknowledged and knows that he will have gotten in power on Dinocrat shoe leather, Dinocrat letters to editors and Dinocrat ballots. You see the CNN exit poll: FIFTEEN percent of Dems went to Dino.
That said, if it were Goldy and not Gregoire: Rossi would have conceded weeks ago – he would have campaigned on ideas. Oh and I really lit into the jackals calling him an “Aluminum hat boy” on SoundPolitics.com. I don’t appreciate that.
when you use estimates of ballots left to be counted in you calculations and they are off by a factor of 2 then it makes the math results wothless.
How many, of _King County’s 4000 votes left, are military votes?