Normally, a sound first place finish in a nonpartisan primary would pretty much assure a candidate frontrunner status, but since the race for King County Executive is nonpartisan in name only, not-so-secret Republican Susan Hutchison shouldn’t start measuring the drapes just quite yet.
On the one hand, 37% in an ostensibly five-way race is pretty darn good, especially when you consider that the runner up is trailing far behind at 22%. But that’s not really all that much better than Will Baker numbers, the bare minimum an uncloseted Republican can expect to draw around these parts, and with 57% of voters choosing avowed Democrats, the D to R ratio is actually pretty damn respectable.
So what percentage of these non-Constantine Dems can Hutchison expect to lure in the general? Some, sure, but I’d hazard not nearly enough. Constantine is by far the most qualified candidate remaining, and the only Democrat. And if voters understand that in November, that should be enough to put him well over the top.
To repeat my query from a previous post, which got buried in an argument of who is more at the “center” of the King County political spectrum:
For the general election, I wonder how much money is going to be thrown in from outside sources. Does the King County Executive position offer any residual national benefit to the Republicans? I can’t think of any such benefit, which normally would keep this a primarily local affair, as far as fundraising goes.
But two things might change that. The first is if Hutchinson is annointed by the national party as an up-and-coming future candidate for higher office (Governor, House of Rep., Senate, etc.), and King County is selected as her “training ground” to give her a few years of “executive experience” she can add to her resume. The second is if the Republicans want to use this election as a precursor to the 2010 elections, and they want to trumpet any Hutchinson victory (or near-victory) as proving a groundswell of growing anti-Democratic sentiment in the country.
If either of those situations result in massive national money being thrown into the King County election, the Democratic candidate might get buried in an avalanche of negative TV adds in the two or three weeks prior to the November election, distorting the final numbers.
If anybody here has contacts in advertising, it might be interesting to find out how much TV and radio time has already been booked for October and the first week of November. Advertising rates have been pretty low most of this year due to the rescession, but if there’s suddenly a shortage of airtime available for those weeks before the election, it might provide an advance signal that this race has been targeted for lots of national money, most likely from the Republicans.
Fuggitaboutit.
Hutchinson Constantine will be a partisan race .. Hutchy can not get a single vote by claiming to be a partisan virgin.
If money were the only issue Nickles would eb damayor again. Dow NEEDS money but even more he needs strong partisan AND non partisan (rationalists and liberal ) support.
SJ’s primary exit polls, a VERY scientific process, gives Dow a secure 5 point lead in Novemeber and he could clear double digits if he handles the scandals around the tussled talking head well.
The mayor race is a lot bigger issue.
Jarrett used to be a Republican, and got 12% of the vote. So let’s split his numbers 50/50 and suddenly you have 51% of the vote for Democrats, and 43% for Republicans, with 6% for fringe candidates. Also, how many low-information Democrats who voted for Ross Hunter because he was an Eastside candidate would see Hutchison as the anti-Seattle alternative? Is it as many as 4% of his 10%? If so, then suddenly we have a tie, 47%-47%.
Sure, if you have to bet, then Constantine’s the logical choice. But I’m worried my fellow Democrats are too complacent.
Edited to add: it looks like the new election results are out. Dow’s at 23%, Hutchison below 36%, and McGinn now second to Mallahan with Nickels still in third.
@ cascadia: I agree there is no room for complacency, which is why I told my wife last night I’m going to have to suit up for the general election KCE campaign.
Still, I think very few Hunter voters are “low information”. Most of them are informed eastside Democrats, moderates, independents, as well as some sane Republicans that wouldn’t even consider Hutchison.
The latest vote count shows Hutchison slightly lower at 35.93 percent, Constantine moving slightly higher above 23 percent.
Based on the Sims vs. Irons race I’d guess the basic partisan split of King County is roughly 55% Dem/45% GOP.
If Dow can make sure most voters know Hutchison is a Republican she’ll loose.
Hutch’s 37% is right in there with what other hardcore wingnut candidates (Motherbeater Irons, $2.13 McGavick, etc.) — and cigaret smoke — get, so I don’t think she’ll come up more than a point or two in the general. Constantine shouldn’t take anything for granted and should work his butt off to get elected, of course, but the November runoff shouldn’t even be close.
Sorry, but this really bugs me. You don’t measure the drapes, you measure the windows for the drapes.
Aside from that, I agree with your analysis completely.
Bear in mind, your November voters are greater in number and poorer in information. August results don’t tell you much.
Well, this is off topic, but it has been announced that Mohammar Ghaddafi is sending a luxury jet to pick up the Lockerbie bomber, which Scotland has just released on grounds of “Compassion”.
This, of course, is not unusual for the fatherland of the gaseous and pussified Piper, full of sound and fury and signifying wimpiness.
Compassion my ass! But who should expect otherwise from a country where the men dress up in skirts and blow on cylindrical objects attached to bags in order to produce a satisfied wailing sound from the object of their attention?
Much like Miss St Claire’s vaporous flatulation here. it’s all bullshit. But perhaps one of us will be around when she has a bad day and breaks a heel and the hem falls out of her kilt whilst she is “performing”.
Good show, Scott, your countrymen have done Libya a great service by turning loose a Muslim terrorist who killed (amongst others) 189 innocent Americans. And if you want to read unending hatred of America,
will center you on a UK Times series of comments about our “friends” the Scots
“Well, this is off topic”
And it should get tossed as such.
37% with the amount of negative robocalls from Fair PAC is pretty good.
Personally, I don’t think Planned Parenthood, one of Fair PAC’s sponsors, should be involved. If you take Federal money for your non-profit, you don’t get to play in the sandbox like the other kids.
Suzie’s smirking arrogance and airs of entitlement really pisses me off.
Yeah, just like that other disaster, the chimpanzee who shuffled off the buffalo last Jan 20.
The world would be a better place if she would just stay where she is pissing away a rich man’s money.
I didn’t think anyone could tick me off more than that woman-abusing fiend Irons but the Republicans always seem to find a way!!
35.92% for Hutchison with today’s update. Of course, Lobdell is also an avowed Republican, and got another 2.57% of the vote. This makes about 38.5% for avowed Republicans.
Here’s a meme that deserves traction (and a bumper sticker):
Susan Hutchison = Sarah Palin
@13
YLB – please refrain from using quotes or phrases that are beyond your ability and/or IQ.
“shuffled off the buffalo” doesn’t even make sense. It’s a vaudeville reference, “shuffle off to Buffalo”. Implying leaving for Buffalo, New York.
Unless you’re suggesting the chimp was the incoming resident of 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. and he rode a buffalo into town. Which is demeaning to Barry and, if uttered by a Republican, racist. And Michelle is big and scary looking, but she’s no buffalo. Really.
16 – Uhhh.. Del
I was referring to the Chimp YOU voted for twice.
Here’s a picture of him:
http://themoderatevoice.com/wo.....hChimp.jpg
Yes his residency in the White House had all the hallmarks of a hideously produced vaudevillian tragicomedy that thankfully “shuffled off to buffalo” last Jan 20.
Thanks for the correction and be advised that I don’t take orders from sore losing right wingers. I’ll “refrain” from whatever I damn well please.
@11 Delbert
If we tossed everything off topic you’d have been long gone.
So sorry to hear you scare so easily Del. I recommend checking the yellow pages for a local psychiatrist. I’m sure he or she can prescribe suitable medication for your condition.
There are a lot of voters who are not really Republican nor Democrat, but are ‘feel good’ voters who vote for the candidate that makes them feel good.
It may be that such voters are swinging towards Hutchison. I have talked to a few co-workers who are not very politically aware, voted for Obama, and are now voting for Hutchison.
@19
Give that woman a bat’leth and you’ve got a new Star Trek franchise. No makeup required. She won’t even need to act.
Getting the incumbents out works for America. It will work in King County. It is time to shake things up!
20 z
Her numbers were pretty solid, it seemed from my observation. No one was “swinging” toward or away from her during the primary.
If, now that the primary is over, you want to claim that someone is “swinging” toward her, just show your nnumbers and it’s all good. And hey, maybe that will happen. Who knows?
But my guess is that with the low opinion people have of Republicans these days, once she is identified as one they won’t be “feeling good” about her.
22 MOR
In the case of KCE, neither candidate is the incumbent. But electing today’s Republicans is a recipe for mismanagement and disaster, so I’ll pass on Hutch.
Correction: Dow is not the “most qualified” he is the ONLY qualified candidate still in the race!