The quesadillas were shockingly good for an Irish place. What no boiled meat and cabbage? Oh, also he seems to have a ticket through the primary.
Hutchison…………37.40%
Constantine………22.38%
Jarrett…………….12.04%
Phillips…………….11.72%
Hunter…………….10.90%
I’m sure a new set of numbers will drop as soon as I hit publish, but there you go as of right now.
We aren’t going to have any significant new numbers until tomorrow. There will be a few hundred votes from the accessible voting centers that will be uploaded around 10 p.m. tonight. No stream of polling places voters like we had in previous elections. Just a once-a-day update from now on, until the final ballots are tallied.
But it sure looks good for Dow! Hutchison will be lucky to climb much past 40% in the general election — maybe 45% if she is really lucky!
The main story here is that Hutch didn’t get 62.6% of the votes.
@1 That 37% is a pretty consistent number — Hutchison, Motherbeater Irons, McGavick’s $2.13/hr. minimum wage, and cigarettes are all about equally popular … you get my drift.
Fred, Larry, and Ross have about 44% of the vote. Most of those votes will go to Dow in the general.
I hope Hutchison agrees to lots of debates with Constantine between now and the general election.
Yeah, I think Hutch’s ceiling is about 40%.
@5…E…
Why? So he can show himself to be a mean little man who is an extremist conniving politician who was there at the creation of much of what is screwed up about King County?
The Piper
I’m surprised Hutchinson didn’t pull in at least 50% in this primary. She’s still got lots of name recognition, she’s physically attractive, she maintains an experienced media presence, and has so far she has managed to get by without talking about anything of substance. Usually that’s the “perfect candidate”, as far as the mainstream media is concerned.
In contrast, her several opponants were relative unkowns to the average voter (i.e., those who get their local political news & opinions from channels 4, 5, 7, and 13).
So: about 35% of voters are hard-core Republicans and Evangelicals who recognize Hutchinson as “one of their own” and would vote for her even if they found out she was Ted Bundy in drag. Add to that at least 10% more from independents or “casual Democrats” who don’t know her politics and are voting based upon name recognition. Add also another 5% or 10% or so as part of the random split among the remaining candidates – giving her 50% to 55% of the primary vote.
Of course, the general election is an entirely different set of calculations, since her opposition will be consolidated and it’s unlikely her political views will remain unknown to the general voter.
The fact that she pulled in much lower numbers in the primary (than the calculations above) indicates that King County primary voters tend to be very involved in the process. They have either rejected Hutchinson because the know her political views (despite her efforts to avoid any discussion of them), or they lean strongly towards one of the other candidates because of their active involvement in specific community issues.
For the general election, I wonder how much money is going to be thrown in from outside sources. Does the King County Executive position offer any residual national benefit to the Republicans? I can’t think of any such benefit, which normally would keep this a primarily local affair, as far as fundraising goes.
But two things might change that. The first is if Hutchinson gets annointed by the national party as an up-and-coming future candidate for higher office (Governor, House of Rep., Senate, etc.), and King County is selected as her “training ground” to give her a few years of “executive experience” she can add to her resume. The second is if the Republicans want to use this election as a precursor to the 2010 elections, and they want to trumpet any Hutchinson victory (or near-victory) as proving a groundswell of growing anti-Democratic sentiment in the country.
If either of those situations result in massive national money being thrown into the King County election, the Democratic candidate might get buried in an avalanche of negative TV adds in the two or three weeks prior to the November election, distorting the final numbers.
If anybody here has contacts in advertising, it might be interesting to find out how much TV and radio time has already been booked for October and the first week of November. Advertising rates have been pretty low most of this year due to the rescession, but if there’s suddenly a shortage of airtime available for those weeks before the election, it might provide an advance signal that this race has been targeted for lots of national money, most likely from the Republicans.
@7
Dow doesn’t have a mean bone in his body, what he says about Susan is true she is a very conservative Republican out of touch with King County and the debates will expose that.
@7, Piper:
No, so he can demonstrate how little she knows about public policy in general and king county government policy issues in particular, and prove beyond doubt how spectacularly inexperienced, unqualified and ill-equipped she is for the position.
@7, P: No. I want to see if Hutchison knows anything about issues specific to King County.
@11…E…
You mean like the issue of foot ferries versus flood-control levies? And how Dow Constantine held the levies hostage to get money for foot ferries in a cynical ploy to build a water-borne empire that, to those who know anything about ferries, was one of the stupidest ideas to come down the pike since Dow Constantine decided to run for public office?
Remember…it’s never wise to trust the repair of something to someone who was instrumental in breaking it in the first place.
BTW…whoever does his TV commercials gets a big raspberry for subtlety. Talking about being a “progressive democrat” (translation: vitriolic hater of everyone who doesn’t think like me) in a non-partisan race is stupid.
King County voters decided that they wanted county offices to be non-partisan because they’re tired of the partisan rancor and bitterness – that good old Seattle consensus attitude again. So those ads will serve to piss off the same people who, by an overwhelming majority, decided they didn’t want to hear that crap again.
Doesn’t anybody in Dow’s campaign have the vision to see beyond the end of her nose?
The Piper
@12. Piper.
I wish I could be more like you. You know, full of love and peace and free of that vitriolic hatred.
Looks like Dow’s ads worked out okay for him. Larry, Fred, and Ross were all experienced, qualified Democrats.
Please give me an example of when/where Dow has ever demonstrated a vitriolic hatred of anyone. I’ve never seen it.
Some advice. Stick with the argument about King County Government being messed up. That is a legitimate argument that will get traction. The unwarranted personal attacks aren’t going stick.
And keep spreading the love.
So how come I can “edit”, but not delete? (Accidentally posted the previous comment twice)
@13…S…
Hey! I calls ’em like I sees ’em…
Since you’re judged by the company you keep, Dow’s hangin’ with Goldy and the HA Happy Hooligans as well as with Brendan Williams (who is my state legislator) speaks poorly of him in the hearts and flowers department.
In addition, that ad of his, which is a brazen appeal to partisan ideology, really blows. King County voters rejected that a couple years ago when they opted to make all offices non-partisan. Or can’t you get that through your head?
The vote totals Dow got can be argued as being those that would come for anyone who called himself a “progressive Democrat.” Charles Manson could have gotten them had he called himself that. And they would have been there irrespective of the ad, which only served to marginalize Dow as identifying with an extremist ideology.
What about the Jarrett and Hunter voters? And some of the ones who supported Larry Phillips? Up for grabs…I know some influential ones who supported those candidates who, frankly, are repulsed by what passes for “progressive Democrat.”
King County voters sent a message: they want county officials in the center, not on one side or the other. Dow nailed his left shoe to the floor, so now he’s stuck – he can’t move. Really and truly dumb.
The Piper
Dow is out of touch with the land owners whose land he is always ripping off. I am happy to see he is getting his just refusal.
If he wants our land Buy IT
Hmmm. Yes, Dow should know better than to champion ideas from the Discovery Institute.
I’ll take Dow over the vapid and sociopathic Suzie any day, any hour, any minute, any second, any femtosecond of the week, day, year, epoch, era – what freaking ever!
Piper
The only reason to vote for Hutchison for County Executive is blind partisanship. She has nothing of substance to offer, no relevant experience, hypocrisy in excess (her lawsuit and unwillingness to acknowledge her partisanship), and is rather mindless when it comes to policy issues. I would not expect her to be a quick study. Those of you who support her should acknowledge the obvious (and there’s nothing wrong the obvious–I would never vote for anyone who claims membership in today’s Republican Party): you’re voting for her because she’s a Republican. Singing her praises strains credulity.
“King County voters sent a message: they want county officials in the center, not on one side or the other.”
And Hutchison is at the center of what, Piper, a King County residing in some alternate universe you perceive where the political center is comprised of bat-shit crazy wingnuts?
Let’s see. Latest numbers have Susan Hutchison at 37.37%. Hard core conservative Republican Alan Lobdell (who ran against Tim Hill in the 1993 primary) polled 2.68%, so that is just over 40% for solid Republican votes.
Stan Lippman and Goodspaceguy each received 1.34% of the vote. That flaky vote will probably split about evenly, leaving Hutchison with about 41% Republican vote out of the primary as a base to build on (or not).
Many thought Hutchison should have polled over 50%, especially as pre-election polls showed her with more support than all other opponents combined. But it seems most of the 20% plus undecideds were trying to figure out which Democrat to support.
We certainly can’t write Hutchison off at this point. Fred Jarrett and Ross Hunter polled 23% of the vote between them. Many of their voters were Republicans, conservatives or independents, who either voted for the candidate they preferred the most, or the Democratic candidate they preferred the most.
Dow Constantine certainly has the potential disadvantage of being closely tied to King County government — 8 years on the King County Council, and presently the Chair of that body. He is also perceived as the most liberal candidate — perhaps a pretty good thing in a pretty liberal county, but something which can leave Hutchison an opening if she can define herself in relatively moderate terms in the months ahead.
It will be interesting to see how the later voter trends come out. Historically, conservative voters tended to mail in their ballots earlier. But in more recent years, liberal voters have tended to mail in sooner, and conservatives mailing in later — look at how Darcy Burner’s early leads evaporated in both 2006 and 2008.
Piper I don’t think you understand what a “progressive Democrat is”.
A “progressive Democrat” is someone who believes in social and public policy “progress” in many or all of the following areas:
Human rights
Equal rights for all, including gays
Civil rights
Privacy rights
Due process
Environmental protection
High quality education for everyone
Middle class wages
Health care as a right, not a privilege
Ending poverty and homelessness
Abolishing the death penalty
Avoiding war
A fair and progressive tax structure
etc…
These aren’t evil people. You may think libertarianism is a better way to achieve these goals, or you may think these goals aren’t worthy for some reason.
But there is nothing morally or ethically wrong with progressives, or hanging out with them. I hung out with Goldy & N, among others, last week at NN. Nothing to be ashamed of! (Although my drunken Karaoke attempt at “Bohemian Rhapsody” was shameful!)
@18…PL…
Hey! I know you better than to ever believe you would vote for anyone who’s ever been within 100 miles of a Republican meeting of any kind.
And I defy you to find one bit of evidence on HA where I’ve endorsed or said I support Susan Hutchison for KC Executive.
My beef is with Dow Constantine and his blunt-object appeal to partisan political interests. If you want to rag on someone, rag on him – he’s the one out of step with King County voters on that score.
Were I a campaign consultant (which I’m not), I would run that “progressive Democrat” line from his ad followed by Susan Hutchison coming on to talk about how she will represent all the people of King County, not just one small element of it because that’s what the voters of the county have said they want.
Who’s more in touch with the center?
The Piper
(Although my drunken Karaoke attempt at “Bohemian Rhapsody” was shameful!)
I’ve never heard you sing karaoke, but I’m still going to agree with you. ;-)
@8 “would vote for her even if they found out she was Ted Bundy in drag”
Gee, who can I think of that this describes? Hmmmmm …
@21…S…
Keep banging that drum since it won’t hurt your political ears – they’re deaf enough as is.
If you think KC Voters, who want centrist in their county government, will swallow that cheese then have at it.
Besides…most of the so-called “progressive Democrats” I’ve seen are about as intolerant a bunch of shouters and haters you could find on the planet. Just follow the HA Happy Hooligan comment threads to judge their compassion and civility.
Then there are the ones in the legislature…A bigger bunch of cooties I’ve never seen.
Go back and read the Danny Westneat column I linked earlier in this thread where it was reported that Dow “Progressive Democrat” Constantine cynically log-rolled support for wasteful and pork-barrel passenger only ferries in return for necessary and essential flood-prevention levies.
Dow Constantine: He’s willing to endanger lives and property in order to build a mosquito fleet nobody will use.
Dow Constantine: He helped screw up King County almost beyond repair – giving him the keys to the treasury is like giving a drunk the keys to the liquor cabinet.
Get my point?
The Piper
“Who’s more in touch with the center?”
Hmm, let me guess. The batshit-crazy wing-nut liar who says she’ll represent all the people of King County?
@16 Just shut up and pay your property taxes like the rest of us have to do.*
* Except feral wildlife living in public parks.
Piper: “Who’s more in touch with the center?”
I think Constantine is quite a lot closer to the political center of King County than is Hutchison. This county, thankfully, is quite liberal. Having Hutchison as executive here would constitute an anomaly of epic proportion. Hutchison would be fine for Benton County. But King County? Not so much.
@28…PL…
If that’s so, why does Dow Constantine have to position himself as the furthest left of all the candidates? Yet he still garnered only 22 percent of the vote?
The whole non-partisan thing was to get rid of what Dow deliberately did: identification with a political party or ideology. That will come back to bite him. That and being in King County government, which most find dysfunctional to the point of clearly inept. Why put the problem in the driver’s seat?
And his efforts (detailed in today’s Seattle Times) to reach out to “younger voters?” Theyt poll, but they rarely make it to the polls.
Suffice to say…I am so glad I no longer live in King County!
The Piper
Piper
I said Constantine is closer to the political center of King County than is Hutchison. I wasn’t comparing him to Jarrett or Hunter.
You may be rid of King County, but Thurston County surely has its share of liberal vermin too. I wouldn’t feel too safe there; who knows what they put in the water.
Why is it republicans like to run candidates like Hutchison and Palin?
Women who are obviously over their heads and lack the knowledge or experience?
There are some good republican female candidates….but SH and SP are not them. But you here the excuses come from the rafters from therepublicans when such obviously unqualified candidates show up….in the menatime, they were criticizing Obama as not being experienced enough….that is total hypocrisy!
Piper: I fail to see how pretending to not be a right wing tool is somehow better for the electorate than being up front about your ideology like Dow is.
Constantine is being honest, and for some reason that makes you crazy. You would prefer he pretend to not be a progressive Democrat in order to confuse unsuspecting voters?
He’s making his case in a very honest way. If voters prefer someone with no qualifications who thinks that is irrelevant because she is “spiritually ready”, they will have that opportunity.
If you hate Dow so much, why are you complaining so vehemently about the very thing you think will sink his campaign?
Doth protesteth tooooo much!
Poor choice by Ross Hunter to enter this race when he did and how he did. While I support his leadership on most issues, his late entrance to the race coupled with the false hope that raising tons of cash would put him out in front ruined it for the best and most serious candididate in the pack: Fred Jarrett. Had Ross stayed out, Fred would likely have moved on to the general. Now I am stuck choosing between two people I don’t really want leading the county.
@33:
Define “Serious”.
Ross, Larry, Dow, and Fred were all “serious” candidates, and all very qualified.
I agree Ross blew it for Fred, and that Fred would have made a gould CE.
Ross also would have been a good choice.
Just because you don’t like Dow doesn’t mean he isn’t a serious candidate!
You may not like either candidate, but there really isn’t any choice here. Vote for Dow!
I meant “good County Exec”, not “gould”!