The latest round of polling from Constituent Dynamics and RT Strategies shows Washington’s 8th and 5th Congressional Districts both within the margin of error just two weeks prior to the election.
In WA-08, Democrat Darcy Burner now leads incumbent Dave Reichert 49% to 47%. In WA-05, incumbent Cathy McMorris leads Democratic challenger Peter Goldmark 51% to 46%. Both polls were conducted Oct 24-26, and are within their 3.1% margin of error.
I haven’t had a chance to look at the cross-tabs, but it’s interesting to note that when you have an incumbent as well known as Reichert, undecideds tend to swing towards the challenger. As for Goldmark, climbing within five points is incredible considering that two years ago McMorris won by 20, and he’s only been campaigning since April — if the wave is big enough, Goldmark is in a position to be swept into office.
Both races will be determined by turnout.
first!
Uh, that 3% MOE on that poll means it’s just as likely (95% confidence) that McMorris is ahead 54-43 and crushing Goldmark by 9 that Goldmark is up 49-48 and squeezing into the lead, so I’m not sure saying it’s a dead heat in the 5th is quite the impression you want to lead. I’d want the OVERALL difference to be within 3 points before calling it a dead heat (the 8th meets that, IMO).
It’s great news, though (the Hail Mary to win in the 5th on Election Day is now on the right side of the field), and I’m glad we have some numbers showing there’s trouble- THIS is what I’ve been looking for (as opposed to partisan push polls). I’m glad I sent cash. Anyone want to put bets on President Cheney making a quick side trip to Spokane when he swings through the West?
I checked the details, and it appears the poll was conducted in the middle of last week (October 25-26). I think that was before the RNC’s ad blitz this weekend which attempted to smear Darcy as the “wicked tax witch of the west”. Typical Rovian scare tactics. My God, the airwaves were full of those ads (and McGavick’s) this weekend. They were amost running them on top of one another.
I’d love to see a poll which showed that Reichart’s numbers actually dropping after those ads. Let’s face it, the only reason the Republicans would ever quit running those ads would be if they didn’t work. We certainly cannot rely upon their conscious to keep them from airing false and misleading ads.
The Goldmark campaign will be an interesting test case. The GOP has been running attack ads reflexively accusing him of all sorts of things he has never said and doesn’t believe, but that hit on old stereotypes of liberals (“HE WANTS TO RAISE YOUR TAXES” — BOO!! — “OH, HE DOESN’T SAY ANY OF THESE THINGS, BUT YOU KNOW THEY’RE TRUE”). They seem to think that if they just screech a laundry list of 15 year old talking points, it will automatically resonate with the voters of the district, regardless of Goldmark’s actual positions. It seems to me they’ve underestimated the voters of the district, but we’ll see. I don’t think he’ll win, but if he comes within even 8 points after her 20 point win in 2004, it will be evidence that the old Limbaugh-esque cartoon of Democrats isn’t as strong as it was even two years ago.
I’ve talked to a lot of Republicans who are dissatisfied with McMorris and the whole GOP, but, then, there’s also the loony guy who was shouting at the movie screen a couple of weekends ago when the “Shut Up and Sing” trailer came on (“Let’s hear them say it in Tennessee instead of France!” – Yes, he didn’t realize London is not in France). So we’ll have to wait and see.
It was also interesting to note the following in the WA08 race:
(1) Only 5% were undecided.
(2) Darcy’s “strong” numbers were even larger – 41 to 37.
(3) Both Democrats and Indpendents said they would be very likely to vote (8.1 out of a scale which tops at 9), against 7.6 for those identified as Republicans. Assuming the 5% undecided splits 50/50, and those turnout numbers match this poll, then Darcy might win by a comvortable margin.
Rove really has his work cut out for him.
Gee, and 41% of those surveyed identified their occupation as “management”. If the Republicans can’t rely on a district with that high a percentage of managers, then they really are in trouble.
Will spews:
The fact that WA-05 is at six points is amazing.
If Peter doesn’t do it this year, he’ll have a helluva shot at it in ’08.
I was in Walla Walla a few weeks ago. While still outnumbered by McMorris signage, it was nice to see a good number of farms flying Goldmark banners.
In the meantime, Bush has been campaigning in such pivitol states as – S. Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas.
I’ll bet that a year ago nobody in the GOP thought they would have to be spending money and Presidential time to keep Congressional seats in those states!
I was in Walla Walla a few weeks ago. While still outnumbered by McMorris signage, it was nice to see a good number of farms flying Goldmark banners.
Between Spokane and Colfax, the ratio is about 1-to-1. And it’s pretty close between Ritzville and the Tri-Cities on 395.
Of course, signs aren’t voters, but it’s encouraging nonetheless.
BTW, Hayduke, were you there for Entwine?
Hayduke,
Say hello to Bonnie for me. Quite a gal, that Bonnie.
Given the large number of voters using mail-in ballots these days, I would love to see a poll taken anytime this week which shows how many have mailed their ballots, and whether or not they voted Republican or Democrat. My guess is that the party faithful (both parties) mailed theirs in early, and left it to those less certain of their choices to wait until next week to mail.
Such a poll might have an impact on how much air time each party purchases during the last week of the campain.
ahhhhnonymous. Which will it be? The ‘comma’ or the ‘pimple’?
I was in northeast Washington on two occasions this Fall, grouse and deer hunting. The countryside is blooming with Goldmark signs.
2 EC
It’s not “just as likely” that the McMorris-Goldmark are 54-43 or 49-48. The “95% confidence” is that they are where they are placed; that is, at 51%-45%. Other values for either candidate are less likely, and at the extremes of either’s error bars the likelihoods are much lower. And if you start moving both numbers, as I understand it (BS Mathematics but really a CompSCi concentration; weak in statistics) you compound the reduction in probability. Kevin Drum, who has a much better statistical background than mine, once posted a much better explanation.The error bars indicate, not that all values within them have equal likelihood, but rather that values outside that error range are extremely unlikely indeed (I think for both to be outside would be 5% of 5%).
Suffice it to say that there’s NOT a “95% probability” they they are, say, 54%-43%. It is considerably lower.
censoring now?
LMAO tolerant one!
Al the Bore is censored these days, too.
LMAO!
Given the large number of voters using mail-in ballots these days, I would love to see a poll taken anytime this week which shows how many have mailed their ballots, and whether or not they voted Republican or Democrat. My guess is that the party faithful (both parties) mailed theirs in early, and left it to those less certain of their choices to wait until next week to mail.
Such a poll might have an impact on how much air time each party purchases during the last week of the campain.
Commentby rhp6033— 10/30/06@ 2:03 pm
Wrong again.
Only a FOOL (liberal) would mail their vote ann an even BIGGER FOOL (Seattle liberal) would mail it early.
@11
I was there for a wind and wine tour.
7 (and formerly 8) Anonymous
To use dialect and a Photshopped poster to indicate that Wolf Blitzer was a “house slave” for the Bush administration until his VERY recent testicular development may be in bad taste, but how is in “intolerant?”
It seems to be a verse of the Republican catechism (is that religiously “intolerant” of me to use the word?) that any mention of a racial matter by a Democrat (and I personally wouldn’t call Billmon a Democrat–he roasts them too) must be followed by a Republican accusing them of intolerance or racism.
Race exists as a social construct in this country. The histories of race bias and slavery and the institutions thereof exist in this country. Mentioning that fact, or using a fact from that history as an illustrative metaphor, is not intolerant in my view. But I would love to hear your side.
Additionally, what’s your opinion of the RNC’s “I met Harold Ford at the Playboy party” black man and white woman racial appeal?
comma or pimple
Both races will be determined by turnout.
I have already sent in my first two ballots for Reichert, and have practiced my other signatures to use on the provisionals next week.
This register-by-mail stuff is awesome!
18 Anon + rhp6033
I voted and mailed early. Darcy’s up and Dave’s goin’ down in flames.
22 now you are steeling pepublicon SOP
I’ve been working on MoveOn.org’s get-out-the vote telephone campaign, but there’s a story out that Karl Rove has the wheels turning to have all the folks the Bush administration appointed to Federal jobs spearhead a massive, nationwide calling and doorbelling campaign, targeting people who live in areas with historically low voter turnout, who’ve been determined by a massive data-mining operation to fit the demographic for probable Republican leanings. How much of all this is being done covertly on the taxpayers’ dime is…well, less than clear.
Hmph. I wonder if being a guy in his fifties, married for a long time and driving a big, old ‘Murrikan sedan will have one of these folks knocking on my door. Too bad we don’t have a big, mean, toothy dog.
I was there for a wind and wine tour.
Commentby Hayduke
I see. I was in WW at around the same time for Entwine (big fundraiser for local wine-related college programs) and wondered if we had inadvertently met.
The “95% confidence” is that they are where they are placed; that is, at 51%-45%.
Uh, no- the 95% confidence is that Goldmark is somewhere between 49 and 43 (the median of that being 46), and McMorris is between 48 and 54 (median at 51). I phrased it badly by lumping all of that in a sentence together with MOE. Let me rephrase my hash job of an earlier statement.
With the 95% confidence level being at around a 3% margin of error, it IS just as likely that McMorris is up 54-43 as Goldmark is up 49-48. Which means it’s just as reasonable to assume McMorris’s support is underestimated/Goldmark’s is overestimated in this poll than vice versa. I was trying to say that calling this a dead heat is pushing it, which you seem to agree with. I also agree that the error bars are unlikelier the more you get from the average (assuming normal distribution)- so 49-49 Goldmark is less likely than, 50-48 McMorris.
I think that based on the low MOE (3%’s pretty good for polling) and that McMorris is just over 50% that Goldmark’s still down- but in the 5th CD and a district McMorris won by 20 against a well-regarded challenger 2 years ago (Barbieri was no slouch), AND with McMorris now being an incumbent…it’s still pretty damn good.
rhp6033
The RNC tax witch ads didn’t start the middle of last week, they’ve been around for a while…..
2
The bad news for Repulsives is the Democrats don’t even need WA05 or WA08, or a dozen others in play. http://www.electoral-vote.com/ predicts a 226-208 House (2 ties) without any D gains in WA.
Investigations! Trials! This is gonna be fun!
28
Too bad we don’t have a big, mean, toothy dog. Commentby ArtFart— 10/30/06@ 3:14 pm
There’s still time to get an AK-47 at your local Republican gun shop!
Oh, and don’t forget a “No Solicitors” sign.
good news for Goldmark. My illegitimate nephew, Chimpy, was campaigning in Georgia today for Congressman Max B. Chimpy raid that he needs ‘farmers’ in the Congress. Good Luck Peter! Chimpy’s on your side.
Man this is big. Especially the race in the 5th. The rethugs thought that would be a cakewalk. They’re spending money in places they’ve never had to. This election is going to bring a tidal wave of bad news to the inbred right!
Coward @30,
“Dead Heat” made a better headline than “margin of error.” But I think my post made the actual situation clear.
Man this is big. Especially the race in the 5th. The rethugs thought that would be a cakewalk. They’re spending money in places they’ve never had to. This election is going to bring a tidal wave of bad news to the inbred right!
I hope you’re right, but we will have to win a few of those races first. Remember that in 1994, the Republicans won 25 races that were decided by fewer than 10,000 votes. There’s a fine line between a tidal wave and simply scaring the bejeezus out of them. The GOP is spending massive amounts of money – granted, it’s almost all in defense of seats they hold. That cash is likely to have a marginal effect on a few of these races, especially in areas that are already red.
That said, I sure like offense better than defense. :-)
Key to winning……
Step 1: Register to vote by mail – be sure to keep copy of signature so that it matches on provisional ballot.
Step 2: Vote using provisional ballot, and be sure to use the same signature used on that specific mail-in registration.
Step 3: Repeat steps 1 & 2 until tired, using different names each time. Be sure to keep a file of all the various names and signatures so that tey match on the provisionals cast. Special note: There is no need to rent several mail boxes for the various voters. As long as the names are different they can all use the same address. And before long all of those names can be used for civil unions if needed for extra health bennies at work.
If asked for ID at the poll scream bloody murder about disenfranchisement!
Special note for repubbies using the techniques above:
Vote democrap in the primaries to thwart the democrap leaders, then vote repubby in the main election.
40
Man, it must suck to be in the minority. You Repubs fixate on vote fraud in your delusional struggle to believe that America believes as you do. The truth is that if the Democrats had the get-out-the-vote apparatus that the Republicans have, every election would be a romp. The Republicans of today are headed for the same fate as their precessor, the Whigs. Take heart, though, you dumbfucks have earned the enmity that is headed your way.
proud penis-in-mouth leftist @ 41
You Repubs fixate on vote fraud in your delusional struggle to believe that America believes as you do.
The key is to get the most votes and to not disenfranchise ANY voters.
Please do not disenfranchise me. Or me. Or me. Or me.
That is four for the repubbies.
proud penis-in-mouth leftist @ 41
Besides, if the repubbies do not get extra votes they are going to lose. We can learn a lot from the democrap’s GOTEV campaigns of recent past. (Get Out The EXTRA Votes, legal or not they get counted.)
The right may be slow, but we are not stupid. We just had morals stopping us from GOTEV in the past, but now we all know the lower bar set by the democraps is the place to be….
28 “There’s still time to get an AK-47 at your local Republican gun shop!”
Naaah. Wouldn’t want to make a mess on our front porch. It sure would be interesting, though, to be able to say “Now, what’s that you people were saying regarding ‘cut and run’?”
42,43
Never leave your fantasies. Reality is a hard place to live.
proud penis-in-mouth leftist @ 45 Never leave your fantasies.
I notice you forgot to say having multiple registrations and provisionals should be illegal.
Silence speaks volumes….
GOP-penis-in-mouth-fantasizer,
The US Marine Corps recommends Webb’s book.
http://www.mcu.usmc.mil/readin.....8;listID=2
Fields of Fire
The Classic Novel of the Vietnam War
Written By Webb, James
I’m disappointed that Goldmark is behind by so much. I can give a damn about being close and all the ground that has been gained compared to the last House election in this district. The opportunity is there, but it hasn’t been capitalized on yet and time is ticking away. For all those folks that say that WA-05 is a hopelessly republican area, take a look at CO-04. They have 46% republican to 29% democrat and 25% independent and Bush’s approval ratings are 40% approval and 52% disapproval according to the aforementioned polling source. In WA-05 we have 41% republican to 26% democrat to 33% independents with Bush approval to disapproval running 41% to 51%. This compares well to the CO-04 race and yet the democrat is running ahead 48 to 45 there against a 2-time incumbent and Goldmark is running down 45 to 51 to a first time incumbent. Also, Bush got almost identical support in both districts in 2004 with him actually doing slightly better in CO-04 than WA-05. I know that there are differences in how the independents might lean in those districts, but the almost identical Bush approval ratings seem to show a similar political landscape. If this race is lost to McMorris, there will be nothing to be proud in regards as to how close it was, it will be an opportunity lost … a possible once in a decade chance to sweep out of office a representative that has blindly backed Bush and his failed imperialistic venture in Iraq and the republican majority to the tune of 97% of the time voting with the republican majority of the House. So don’t talk about moral victories and all that other BS … it will be a failure, a failure to get aligned properly with a wave that engulfed the nation, a failure to recognize it in time to catch it, a failure in political strategy. There are no partial victories in defeat in politics … you either win or you lose, that’s it … and unless something changes drastically in the next week this race is going to be lost and this opportunity wasted.
Note: There is one major difference that I noticed after my first post between WA-05 and CO-04 and it is significant. Musgrave after winning 55 to 42 in 2002, won CO-04 by 51 to 45 in 2004 while McMorris won in 2004 by 60 to 40. I still contend that the political climate is similar going by the democrat/republican make-up of the districts as well as Bush’s 2004 results there and his approval/disapproval ratings. There isn’t a wide avenue to victory in WA-05 for democrats … it’s no 8-lane super highway … but it is there if they hit the right tunes at the right time. McMorris’ three major liabilities that haven’t been attacked are her blind and total self-serving support of the Bush Administration, this republican House and the Iraq war and I have yet to see the Goldmark campaign make an assault on those fronts against McMorris. In fact, I don’t think I’ve even heard much mention, if any, about those three issues, that should be working against McMorris, in any TV ads.
GBS, Less than a week!! Soon you will require my permission to post!!! Deal with it!
Check out the list of the most dangerous cities in the USA. 100% Democrat!! Not a Republican within miles!!! All gang, crime, and drug infested Democrat Hillary Villiage Shit Holes!!! And all vote 115% Democrat!! [Atlas has Shrugged]
How can a 5-point lead be within a 3 point MOE?
Nice accounting idiot!
I heard from a WA Grassroots Field Organizer that since last week the Burner campaign has been “Swimming” with volunteers.
Since absentees are out–many people have already voted. I think the majority of the 8th district votes by absentee.
Your bogus polls make comfort you now, but on Nov 8th when Congressman Reichert returns to congress and Burner returns to well, doing nothing as she has in the past, you all will be afflicted with BDS once again.
Burner in toast. Just put on the jam. No amount of vote fraud can save this broad.
With regards to post 52:
Only a fool would say that being a Microsoft PM is doing nothing.