Exceptionalism is a dangerous vice, but I cannot help but feel that this election is different. Past elections have been won on character or fear or both, but in 2008 I don’t believe the majority of Americans will vote for the candidate they’d most like to have a beer with, or who promises to kill the most Moslems. And while I don’t doubt that our nation remains closely divided on ideological grounds, the divide itself is not nearly as wide as the Rovians would like to believe.
This has also been a brutally long election season in which Americans have had the opportunity to get to know Senators Barack Obama and John McCain in excruciating detail, and so I don’t expect the polls to fluctuate wildly between now and November. Voters have been waiting for both sides to show their hands, and with the vice presidential selections on the table, the waiting game is pretty much over. McCain will get some sort of convention bounce—every nominee does—and then within a week or two, the vast majority of undecideds will pretty much make up their minds.
Which way will the swing vote swing? If I had to bet money, I’d wager on Obama. No doubt McCain has energized his party’s right wing base with his naming of the ultra-conservative creationist Sarah Palin to his ticket, and that will likely mean shorter Obama coattails here in Washington state, where we had been hoping the Ellen Craswell Republicans might stay home en masse. But national elections are won in the middle, and amongst moderate voters Palin will have much more limited appeal.
Indeed, the tone of the two conventions couldn’t have provided a greater contrast. The GOP convention peaked on Wednesday, when a lineup of speakers, endcapped by Palin, entertained the crowd by belittling Obama and his supporters with overtly mean-spirited (if admittedly clever) barbs. And while McCain gamely attempted to recast himself as a bipartisan reformer in his speech last night, it was the partisan sniping that will most likely be remembered by viewers.
The Democratic convention on the other hand adopted a more hopeful and uplifting tone, culminating in Obama’s historic acceptance speech before a roaring crowd of 85,000 at Denver’s Invesco Field. It was (and I somewhat shudder to type the adjective) almost Reaganesque. It was also laced with considerably more substance than the Republican sequel.
Obama has promised tax cuts for 95% of American households; McCain has promised tax cuts for corporations. Obama has promised universal access to health care; McCain has promised tax incentives to make health insurance more affordable. Obama has promised to invest $150 billion in developing the alternative energy sources of the future; McCain has promised more off-shore drilling. Obama has promised to end the Iraq war honorably, and bring our troops home; McCain promises a hundred years war.
And Obama wants abortion to be legal, safe and rare, whereas McCain wants to outlaw abortion while denying young woman access to the birth control and medically accurate sex education that would prevent unwanted pregnancies in the first place.
On all these issues, and most others, it is Obama who appeals to the middle, as he does in tone and character. The Republicans will attempt to brand him as tax-raising, gun-stealing, terrorist-loving liberal… but I just don’t think these charges will stick, and my instinct tells me that it is probably too late. By the end of next week the vast majority of voters will have made up their minds, and all that will be left to do is figure out the electoral math.
McCain needs to win both Ohio and Florida to capture the White House, but Obama doesn’t, with Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Montana, North Dakota, Indiana, Virginia, and North Carolina presenting him an endless number of reasonable scenarios toward securing 270 electoral votes. And Ohio and Florida are still toss-ups. And if in the end it is as close as the last two presidential elections, and turnout becomes the deciding factor, there too Obama has the advantage, having invested in extensive field operations McCain can’t hope to match.
This race will be closely fought, and Democrats can’t let their guard down, but let’s just say that coming out of the conventions I am cautiously optimistic. But then… I could always be wrong.
Did you know HAs favrit economist said this:
“I wasn’t surprised at the effectiveness of the McCain “celebrity” ad.”
Goldy: If you don’t pay Federal Income taxes, how do you get a Federal Income tax cut?
You are right. It is your anal-ysis. More BULLSHITTIUM from above:
Did you fall asleep Goldy, as he promised much more?
“We are going to stop sending $700 billion a year to countries that don’t like us very much. We will attack the problem on every front. We will produce more energy at home. We will drill new wells offshore, and we’ll drill them now. We will build more nuclear power plants. We will develop clean coal technology. We will increase the use of wind, tide, solar and natural gas. We will encourage the development and use of flex-fuel, hybrid and electric automobiles.”
Golly I don’t remember this from “Adonis” Obama with his Greek Columns.
Puddy @3,
“Drill, baby, drill!” That’s what viewers will take away from the Republican convention. And that is the heart of McCain’s energy plan.
Goldy, because Nancy Pelosi said: “No Drilling, No Vote” She wouldn’t let the House debate the merits of offshore drilling. She turned off the C-Span cameras so she wouldn’t be embarrassed. Except people knew about it.
She now realizes this will be a campaign issue and she may hurt her party’s chances to improve their “testicle lock-box” control. Imagine if you guys have the house and senate but no veto proof majority. 9% approval baby!
BTW Dave, how does Katie like middle school? I remember those days.
Goldy – I’m willing to die on that hill of offshore drilling. I bet the American people are with me on that.
@5: If the Republicans solution to the energy crisis (which has been looming for years) is to grandstand at the eleventh hour, they shouldn’t be in charge of managing a Denny’s, let alone a country.
What a shock, Goldy is lying out his ass again.
McCain of course never promised 100 years of war, and in fact he explictly said — in the very same quote Goldy is referring to — he was NOT supporting that.
There are other lies too, but I am bored and busy. Goldy, does being so exceptionally dishonest ever make you feel bad? I’m just curious.
Questioner: President Bush has talked about our staying in Iraq for fifty years…
McCain: Maybe a hundred. Make it one hundred. We’ve been in South Korea, we’ve been in Japan for sixty years. We’ve been in South Korea for fifty years or so. That’d be fine with me as long as Americans are not being injured or harmed or wounded or killed. Then it’s fine with me.
10 Steve, our church’s former pastor was an Army chaplain who served for several years in Korea. He told us that while he was there the frequent border skirmishes with the North Koreans often involved casualties, and he was concerned that we never hear about it back here.
Goldstein!
So out your money where your mouth is!
With Palin in the ticket, McCain raised something like a half billion dollars! and that is before she gets the support of the North Slope!
Voters aren’t like you .. they don’t read blogs, the NY Times or obscure i intellectual magazines. The voters listen to ads and TV talkshows. Our side already owns Fox and we have so intimidated the rest they side with us too.
Palin, Palin, Palin
Plain is the ubermom, she is the breasted Valkyries that Germany needed to balance the 1.4 Jew called Hitler! Imagine her instead of Adolph as Die Fuehererin! Imagine her as the figure of Liberty in the Delacroix painting!
You are right, this election will not be run on the usual issues, it will be run on Sarah, the Amazon’s shield.
Hey Pudge… why do you hate America?
“she is the breasted Valkyries”
Can I vote twice? Once for each breast?
@13 Keep your facts, straight, my man. He only hates 72% of it.
@3 “Golly I don’t remember this from “Adonis” Obama with his Greek Columns.”
No, you don’t, because Obama promised to invest in renewable energy instead of keeping us dependent on fossil fuels and other exhaustible energy sources liek McCain would. (The supply of nuclear fuel is even more limited than the supply of fossil fuels.)
Let’s take offshore drilling, for example. Forget the possible adverse environmental consequences (spills, ruined beaches, destroyed fishing grounds, etc.) and concentrate on the oil itself.
First, this is expensive oil that costs up to $60 a barrel to extract, so you won’t get price relief from extracting it. The U.S. Energy Agency estimates it might affect future gas prices by 2 or 3 cents a gallon.
Second, this is a limited supply of oil that won’t provide significant relief to future supply shortages. Most experts estimate offshore resources at about 18 billion barrels. That’s about a 2 1/2 year U.S. supply or a 7-month global supply.
Third, production of this oil is 10 to 20 years away, so it will provide no relief whatsoever for current prices or supply constraints.
Fourth, all Congress can do is open these offshore areas for leasing. That doesn’t mean private oil companies will develop them. At present, 85% of existing federal offshore oil leases are lying fallow.
What it boils down to is that “Drill, baby, drill!” is mainly useful as a political chant and has very little relevance to your gas tank. Slogans won’t get you from here to there.
Were you saying something about “BULLSHITTIUM,” puddinghead?
@5 As I said, puddinghead baby, drilling is very useful as a political chant but as a means of actually powering our economy in the future — not so much.
Responsible voters who want effective leadership look past slogans and campaign promises to figure out what actually works.
Empty-headed wingnuts like you? Well, the crowd of rightwing lemmings keeps running straight toward the cliff.
Puddy, what are you gonna say when offshore drilling doesn’t increase short-term supply, doesn’t bring down fuel prices, doesn’t make our country independent of the Middle East, doesn’t lay any groundwork for the post-oil world we’ll have to live in after Peak Oil arrives and global oil production slides into irreversible decline?
Are you going to say, “Gee, we were wrong”? Do you think that will be sufficient?
How about getting it right before it’s too late, jackass? That’s why I’ll vote for Obama instead of McCain.
@7 “Crusader spews: I’m willing to die on that hill of offshore drilling.”
You take point. I’ll sit here and watch. — Signed, a gnarly old Vietnam Veteran with long pink ears and a fluffy cute cottontail.
Thank the Great Mother Rabbit Spirit my species doesn’t depend on human intelligence for survival. We were here before they showed up, and we’ll still be here after they’re gone.
@9 Well gee, pudge, McCain is lying out his ass about Obama raising taxes on people making $42,000 a year, so I guess that makes it even.
@12 “With Palin in the ticket, McCain raised something like a half billion dollars! and that is before she gets the support of the North Slope!”
She’s planning to embezzle the Alaska Trust Fund for McCain’s campaign expenses?
I don’t see where else North Slope money would come from, except maybe oil companies dipping into their enormous profits, because no one lives on the North Slope except a few poor Inuits.
And I don’t see why oil companies would dip into their enormous profits to help McCain because they’re not interesting in new oil wells anyway. Capital spending by major oil companies is at an all-time low. They’re using their record profits to boost CEO pay, buy back shares, and increase dividends to shareholders. Apparently they don’t see much of a future in expensive arctic oil. I mean, why would oil executives spend enormous sums to increase supplies to lower the market price of their product?
Roger @ 21
First, Pudge is, himself, a proven liar, so there’s no need to respond to his claims about other people lying.
Second, McCain’s entire schtick about the 100 years comment has been so completely incoherent that it’s simply not possible for anyone to lie when talking about what he said.
Roger
More drilling rights will nto, as you know, lower prices. It will increase the capital value of the dear folks who get these awards!
res ipsa loquitor
Palin ain’t a dumb bunny you know! She is not trying to fix the problem, she is trying to get elected so folks who want to have kids like rabbits do can have that freedom.
Goldy:
Answer my question first. Why do you lie so much? Do you so lack any faith whatsoever in your ideals that you have to lie to get them to win? Do your ideals not include honesty and integrity and democracy (the latter, as you know, requiring an informed, not a lied-to, populace)?
And don’t bother trying to turn this on me, or Bush, or whomever. I don’t lie. You do. Tell me why.
Don Joe: you have never in your life shown me to have lied about anything. You’re almost as bad as Goldy.
Pudge @ 25
You know, if you can’t even be honest with yourself, there’s no reason anyone here will believe you about anything you have to say.
Liar.
Pelletizer@16: You left your oxygen tent when you wrote that one huh.
Let me reiterate:”We will increase the use of wind, tide, solar”
Mrs Pelletizer give him the oxygen mask, fast!
Gee Pelletizer we’ll never know if off-shore drilling will provide us answers if we “don’t offshore drill!”
Once again when your brain is oxygen starved, the synapses mis-fire BIG TIME!
I guess you are our on-site ostrich eh Pelletizer?
Pelletizer Obama has said he’ll raise taxes on 481,000 small businesses making $250,000 a year or more. – Tax Policy Center
So Pelletizer, how will that help those employees?
But there are another many sole proprietorships who will be affected too. Obama doesn’t want you to know this. Salesman, Doctors, Lawyers – he dat wuz you!, etc.
Pelletizer, with more drilling means more great paying jobs on rigs.
Wait a minute… great paying jobs is anti-Democrat. They are not on the guvmint dole… beholden to a handout like Mike Huckabee mentioned.
Pelletizer: If he lets the Bush tax cuts lapse, how will Obama allow 95% of the US populace to not see their tax rates go up?
Don Joe: *plonk*
Goldy: will you answer? Why are you lying? You know what you said is false. You are far too smart to believe that lie. So why did you say it?
pudge @32,
I don’t lie. I occasionally get things wrong, I dabble in satire, and I express extremely sharp, partisan commentary… but I don’t lie.
McCain has said 100 years. He’s said 1000 years. He’s said 10 years. He’s said a couple years. He’s been all over the damn place on this. So which McCain should I believe, and which McCain should I report? The one that best fits your spin, or the one that best fits mine?
The fact is, McCain is a belligerent, trigger happy militarist who has expressed his desire to bomb Iran, and is even attempting to bully his way into a military confrontation with Russia over Georgia for chrissakes… a former Russian territory, barely a democracy, and who by the way started the confrontation over South Osetia, even if that doesn’t excuse Putin’s excessive response.
McCain supports permanent military bases in Iraq. Obama doesn’t. In that sense, on that issue, Obama is truly the more conservative of the two candidates. (Assuming “conservatism” still means anything anymore.)
Now that I’ve answered your question Pudge, you answer mine: Why do you hate America?
Pudge @ 37
Sorry, squirt, but there are no killfiles here. And, you’re still a liar.
As for your latest version of “have you stopped beating your wife,” your question assumes a fact not in evidence. In fact, your question assumes as fact something that can’t possibly be in evidence.
See, when Goldy says that McCain wants to stay in Iraq for 100 years, that’s a conclusion not a statement of fact. It, therefore, cannot be a lie. It’s an opinion.
Now, you might try to argue that Goldy’s conclusion isn’t supported by the facts, but you’re too fucking lazy, or too incredibly stupid, to undertake the intellectual effort to engage the argument. So, you take the lazy way out, and beg the question.
You see, shit head, if there were really killfiles here, I’d have plonked you upon encountering the first comment you’ve ever made.
Goldy:
I don’t lie.
That is not true, of course. You lie a LOT. You rarely bother defending your lies when I point them out, which, in fairness, could be because you don’t read all the comments. But you do lie often.
McCain has said 100 years.
Ahem. Let’s go back and see your words: McCain promises a hundred years war. That is false. His quote was explicitly not about war, and it was not in any fantasy world a “promise” of any kind.
You are lying. What he said was, when asked if we would stay 50 years in Iraq, “Maybe 100. As long as Americans are not being injured or harmed or wounded or killed, it’s fine with me and I hope it would be fine with you if we maintain a presence in a very volatile part of the world where al Qaeda is training, recruiting, equipping and motivating people every single day.”
So he EXPLICITLY, at the time, said he was NOT talking about war, but merely a presence, AS LONG AS it is NOT violent, which is what “war” IS.
And again, it wasn’t a promise.
So yes, Goldy, you are lying. He never, ever, “promised” to be there for any length of time, and he never, ever, said that 100 years of war would be acceptable to him.
You are lying. If you still want us to believe your lie that “He’s been all over the damn place on this,” fine, quote him. Back up your bullshit.
The fact is, McCain … has expressed his desire to bomb Iran
Another lie. He never did any such thing.
For pete’s sake, is it possible for you to NOT lie?
Now that I’ve answered your question Pudge, you answer mine: Why do you hate America?
I don’t. That was an easily answered question; why’d you make it so easy on me?
Pudge @ 35
McCain has promised “victory.” He’s not ever clearly defined what “victory” looks like, but, as best anyone can tell, “victory” happens when American soldiers are no longer under attack.
Yet, as long as we have a military presence in Iraq, there will be Iraqis who don’t want us to have a military presence in Iraq and are willing to attack American soldiers in order to make their point.
Therefore, McCain’s promise to maintain a military presence until “victory” happens is logically equivalent to promising that we will be at war in Iraq for however long we choose to maintain a military presence.
So, not only is Goldy’s conclusion not a lie, it’s a sound conclusion that doesn’t conveniently ignore relevant facts.
And you’re still a liar.
Pudge: I brought up the quote when Pelletizer left his oxygen tent and used it. He stopped. Now someone else has to “try” again.
It’s the Moonbat! playbook. If you don’t succeed, let someone else try again.
Puddybud, I think you mean, “if at first you don’t succeed, lie, lie, again.”
Oh, and can you do me a favor? If Don Joe says something worth reading, let me know, will you?
Pudge
If Don Joe says something worth reading, let me know, will you?
Now there’s a novel rhetorical technique. When you can’t come with a cogent counter argument, pretend you didn’t read it!
Liar.
… what an astounding bunch of garbled nonsense.
I hope this mental midget gets some much needed help!
#40: I really appreciate your doppelganger. When someone sockpuppets you, you are getting to them.