A few days ago Joe Mallahan was that business guy who was about to become mayor after spending gobs of his own cash. Kinda Seattle’s version of Michael Bloomberg, but without all that Bloomberg money.
But this morning Mallahan is just that business guy who spent gobs of his own cash. Or as our friend Will pointed out last night, kinda Seattle’s version of Michael Huffington, but without the blowing guys part. (So far as we know.)
And if this seems like I’m predicting a Mike McGinn victory based on a slim one-percent lead with about 60-percent of the ballots still outstanding, well, I guess I am. Not nearly as confidently as I’m predicting an R-71 victory, and certainly not for the same reasons. But if I were Mallahan I’d be preparing to reacquaint myself with obscurity.
My reasoning? First, if the polls can be believed, the undecideds appeared to break in McGinn’s favor during the final week of the campaign, suggesting that late votes will favor McGinn by an even stronger margin than those reported last night, all of which had been received as of 5PM Friday. Second, and perhaps even more important, McGinn appears to have engineered the most impressive, grassroots get out the vote campaign this city has seen in some time.
On the other hand, I’ve heard from the Constantine campaign that they had the sense the late vote was trending a bit more conservative, and that they wouldn’t be surprised to see Hutchison slightly narrow the gap as the votes are tallied, but I’m not sure the same dynamics apply to the mayor’s race, which was widely understood to pit a Democrat against a Democrat. Hutchison may have successfully tagged Constantine a bit with her ridiculous claim that he was responsible for Boeing setting up shop in South Carolina, but that issue simply didn’t play in the McGinn vs. Mallahan contest.
We won’t really know if a trend toward McGinn holds true until after tomorrow’s ballot drop (this afternoon’s drop will largely be from the same batch as yesterday’s), but for the moment at least, I’m sticking with my thesis that McGinn wins.
Yeah, I know, only a fool or a liar would claim to know the outcome of a race this close, but there’s no glory in making a prediction after most of the results are in.
Sneer Sneer sneeeeeeeeeeer sneer Guffaw Klown
Maybe McGinn will win, but there is no way you can say he will. The reason this blog is not taken seriously by me is these kinds of statements. It is way too close to call.
Heck, I did not vote for either of these guys. One is a corporate lawyer, the other thinks you cell phone rates are too low.
My victory begins and ends with Mayor Nickels losing the primary. Hey, did you predict that too?
Goldy, can you see anyone who voted for Hutchison voting for McGinn? It seems impossible considering his ultra pro lightrail stance and generally more liberal image. So unless they just abstained from voting for mayor, you would think that a swing for Hutchison (among Seattle voters) would equal a swing for Mallahan.
Or is there a glaring logical flaw/false assumption that I’m missing?
Election update: KING 5 News just put out new numbers that put McGinn ahead by 462 votes — about half as large as McGinn’s lead last night.
Meanwhile, in the county exec race, the gap between Dow and Suzie has widened and the percentages are now 58% to 42%, as Suzie crawls closing and closing to loser by a bigger percentage than cigaret smoke (38%).
A mini-controversy is brewing in the Mallahan-McGinn race. According to KING 5 News, after the 8:15 p.m. ballot dump showed a close race, McGinn supporters rounded up ballots from voters who hadn’t mailed them yet and carried them to the post office before the midnight postmark deadline.
Mallahan said, “I have no objection to that. I actually hadn’t thought about the legal implications of acting as an agent, carrying a ballot to a polling place, but when I first heard it I thought, ‘That’s just good organizing.'”
But GOP SoS Sam Reed complained, “What they did is legal, but I don’t think it’s proper.”
http://www.king5.com/news/poli.....37207.html
Roger Rabbit Commentary: Gimme a break, Sam! If it’s legal, it’s proper! End of story.
Good Story Rabit I may use it on my blog.