Over on Publicola there’s been some speculation about State Sen. Ed Murray launching a write-in campaign for Seattle Mayor, an idea which at first glance sounds a little stupid. Write-in campaigns are exceedingly difficult things to run, and in a citywide, top-of-the-ticket race, nigh impossible. And Murray is nothing if not a savvy politician who wouldn’t dare risk his reputation on a farce or a folly.
But on second thought…
I’ve got no polling data to back this up, but there’s a strong argument to be made that, considering their lack of name ID and zero experience in public office, a goodly sum of the votes for both Mike McGinn and Joe Malahan were really votes against Mayor Greg Nickels. I’m less impressed with Mallahan buying his way into public consciousness than I am with McGinn’s grassroots success, but I’m still not all that impressed with either campaign; Mallahan has proven himself uninformed on many city issues, while McGinn has yet to make a strong case that he is qualified in both experience and temperament to serve as chief executive. The well-known and well-respected Murray, on the other hand, would have instant credibility.
But the real wildcard that makes the goofy notion of a mayoral write-in campaign just a little less goofy is our new, all vote-by-mail format. Voting at our leisure at the kitchen or dining room table, it really doesn’t take that much more effort to write in “MURRAY” than it does to completely fill in that little circle. And, as Josh points out, with R-71 likely to be on the ballot, Seattle’s strong and politically activated gay community will have extra incentive to send a message by electing our city’s first openly gay mayor. And, the sheer novelty and drama of such a challenge would draw oodles of valuable earned media, and if properly played, national coverage as well.
Could a Murray write-in campaign be perceived to be credible enough to, say, earn an endorsement from the self-proclaimed arbiters of credibility at the Seattle Times? My spider-sense says yes.
So… should Murray run? Only if he’s willing and able to raise the money and commit the time and energy to make it a real campaign, and only if he’s got some reliable polling data telling him that he’s got better than a snowball’s chance in Hell. What he shouldn’t do is kinda-sorta run, just to make a statement, or to drive turnout for R-71. I know from running joke campaigns, and somebody with Murray’s ambition and potential shouldn’t make the mistake of lowering himself to my level.
That said, if Murray does declare as a write-in candidate, and does make a serious effort to win the race, there’s no shame in losing, and probably no long term political cost either, as long as he’s perceived to take the challenge seriously. After all, as any self-respecting pundit will tell you, a mayoral write-in campaign is nigh impossible.
So just how many PCO votes could a guy like ….say….you David, get to fill a vacancy in the House or better yet the Senate???
Just sayin
Sounds like a publicity stunt to feed Ed’s huge ego. Nothing more. If Ed was serious, why not many months ago? Why now?
Ego. Ego.
Particle Man @1,
Zero, since I live in the 37th, not the 43rd.
Murray and Push Polling
Ed would be a fool to run.
What does he get in return? The job is always awful, NOT a good stepping stone. Ed is a very good candidate to replace Sunny Jim and he is likely to be a lot more effective in that office, when ol’ Jimbo steps down, than in the fractious fratricide of Seattle’s mayoral mess (not to alliterate, I am leaving Mercer out of this).
The R71 debacle is only going to make this a worse idea. The damn thing is so badly written, that it will need a strong campaign, BUT that campaign will paint the radical remnant even MORE into a corner … not good news for Hutchinson, Reichert or Reagan Dunn! Ed is a very good guy to lead that fight and I would not be surprised if even our AG joins on this side ..showing Ed as the statesman I think he really is.
BTW, I was polled on this. The content of the poll made me suspect that it was either being done by some very amateurish folks or was a push poll intended to hurt Mallahan (the subject of too many questions in re Murray),
Finally, if write ins are feasible, why would Ed be the only one? We could have chaos.
Cynical @2,
Why not months ago? Because like most people, Ed assumed Mayor Nickels would make it to the general, and now perhaps he believes there isn’t an acceptably qualified candidate left in the race.
The only reason that the Murray write-in scenario has any legs whatsoever is that the mayoral primary vote was entirely a vote against. The overwhelming majority of Seattle voters wanted to remove Greg Nickels, even though no one else of positive substance was on the ballot. Mallahan and McGinn seemed like the least unimpressive alternatives we could choose from, so they ended up slightly ahead of Nickels.
It’s clear, though, that neither of the M&M boys represents a positive step for Seattle’s executive office. Whichever of the pair comes out ahead will be way over his head, even though I’m not certain that either of them knows it. I’d probably vote for whichever one acknowledges his lack of qualifications and pledges to hire a “human Tim Ceis”, a deputy with the public sector chops to do the real work of running the city.
A write-in campaign can’t win unless there’s a pile of money behind it for voter education and GOTV. Even someone with the strong public image and positive reputation of Ed Murray would have immense problems in setting it up in under two months.
Gotta think that Peter Steinbrueck and Tim Burgess are kicking themselves right about now for their Danish prince-like indecisiveness in the run-up to the mayoral primary.
This is a cynical view of why Murray would enter the race. Remember, Sen. Murray has been a strong supporter of the tunnel, despite its spiraling cost and geologic concerns, and has a lot invested in its completion. Just think of the campaign contributions rolling in from construction and labor. It would take a relatively few write-in votes to dispel the chances of a McGinn mayoral victory.
And thanks for the reminder, I need to get a check off to McGinn.
We’re just going to have to get behind McGinn, with all his flaws, and hope he learns quickly once he’s on the job.
Murray needs to be available for R-71, and his next elected office should be Congress.
I still like the idea of a write-in campaign for Goldy, either for Mayor of Seattle or King County Executive. Or both! Now THAT would be REAL metropolitan governance, with the same person heading both the city and the county governments!
@7
Bluestater, I agree completely that there will be a Mayor Mallahan if Sen. Ed Murray jumps in as a write-in Mayoral candidate. I have no polling data, but believe the folks who look hard at campaigns would be pulled between McGinn and Murray and leave Mallahan with the most votes. The folks who don’t pay attention will pick almost evenly between Mallahan and McGinn because their names appear on the ballot.
Whoever wins, he’ll surely need the luck o’the Irish to succeed.
Thankfully(?), all three of them are sons of the Emerald Isle (as well as the Emerald City).
Erin Go Bragh!!
Ed himself said yesterday that this was not his idea and he had no plans to run a write-in campaign. I’m sure he’d be a fine mayor, but the rumor needs to start with him, does it not?
Primary endorsements are over, could write-in Murray get LD endorsements for the general?
Would the now unemployed Nickels machine run a gotv using union money?
McGinn just ran the tunnel vote again, he got in the general but there was not majority support to stop the tunnel. He has an issue and got, and will likely keep most of, the support. Thinking a plurality vote involving the viaduct or McGinn having more value than was actually displayed is foolishness. He is as locked into his support as Susan Hutchison is to hers.
Drawing 45% in a two person race is about as far as I see that going.
If there are some people that did vote against Nickels and refused to vote for Mallahan, taking McGinn as the least troubling then Murray could pull off some of those votes.
Maybe much of the Nickels/Drago votes, and any pure anti-Nickels votes Mallahan has.
In a 3 way race I think he would win, the problem is about time.
The money is being offered.
@13 agree
McGinn’s only chance would be that a scandal shgows up for Mallahan or that the SEIU endorses McGinn.
Mallahan is likely to win
@12, does he have a time limit to start running if he said he was interested. Dan Savage was told to formally file when stated interest in a fit if daily hyperbole, he happen to be on the radio at that random moment.
The publcola story said he was one of many.
@15 if you want to be a formal candidate with your name on the ballot, etc., you have to register as a candidate months ago. but anyone can declare themselves a write-in candidate at any time, i believe. that’s the point of it all. a juicy late-comer has the opportunity to crash the party.
@13 & @14,
I wouldn’t underestimate the McGinn campaign. He did better than several better funded opponents including Mallahan.
Also don’t underestimate the value of going out and meeting the voters where they are, having a field operation, or having volunteers to staff it.
Mallahan hasn’t shown he knows much about campaigning other than buying TV ads and robo-calls.
i thought the stranger slog broke the story. p-cola even admitted that sort of. i find it awesome that the union bosses have no thumb on the mayoral candidates and telling that goldy is flacking for a murray write-in effort. what the union construction industry won’t get to build the multibillion dollar surface street project? give us a break.
notaboomer @18,
How was this a flak job? I’m on the record opposing the tunnel, and all I did was point out that while a write-in campaign is extremely difficult to win, it’s not completely impossible, and, that if done right, even a loss wouldn’t hurt Ed’s career.
So it’s not a totally ridiculous notion, and apparently the interest in it is real.
@19, it is called fear.
The intense handwringing by the McGinn and Mallahan supporters is really interesting.
The backflips proponents are doing here, publicola, etc, is fucking great dramady.
My guy made the top two, now the Nickels money is looking for a new home, and it is not with either top two finisher.
Ha! Ha!
Posted Tue, Aug 25, 12:11 p.m.
“…he must have felt that his true constituents were those residing within his power pyramid, and not the rest of us….something had to be done.”
There’s truth in this–out of sheer frustration in trying to deal with (appointed) city staff, the city-regulated taxicab industry spent heavily on Drago in the last week — to keep her on TV, to keep her votes from going back to Nickels, to get change—any kind of change—and hopefully some measure of responsiveness and respect at City Hall. Same goes for south end businesses that were impacted by–and ought to have benefited from–Sound Transit light rail, but whose concerns were dissed by the City.
— cvandyk5@msn.com
http://crosscut.com/2009/08/25.....ion/19187/
If the two guys who made it into the Mayoral general election were COMPETENT enough to do the job, I would say Ed Murray and his supporters are wasting their time.
But Mallahan and McGinn are NOT QUALIFIED to be mayor. So, this is an intriguing idea.
An even stronger argument: less than 15% of voting age Seattleites “kicked Nickels out”, and most of those voters were old timers and Republicans. Obama Nation slept through (or vacationed through) the ridiculous August primary.
I would say there is a strong argument to be made for a Nickels write in campaign.
@17 17. Christopher Stefan
I am not under estimating McGinn, I actually like some of his stands. However, he has already lost my support becuase he takes stands he can not back up.
I think the race is Jo M’s to lose, but you are right .. he is an untested pol and the record of newbies being able to handle the glad handing and amorphous anymosity of Seattle crowds is nto good.
That was a stupid Chris Van Dyk quote you posted, Mr. Baker.
Nickels won in the 37th and 11th.
http://blog.seattlepi.com/seat.....177263.asp
You know, the leg districts which were “impacted” by light rail.
Which cvd quote isn’t stupid?
Man, I hate career politicians. But now that there are no career politicians left in the race, I am left to grope in the dark for someone to tell me I am not an idiot.
I think McGinn would be a great deputy mayor. He has good ideas and valuable grass-roots experience but pratical political experience in City Hall he doesn’t have. And Mallahan frankly scares me more than words can describe.
I hope that Murray gets in the race, though I don’t always agree with Murray on several issues I think he would provide Seattle the “anything but Nickels” change we wanted with the experience to deal with the serious issues we have as a city. And sorry, neither McGinn nor Mallahan have a comprehensive plan to deal with those issues. If they have point me to the website. I’ve looked at both candidates websites and have found both lacking on details.
And besides, I’m still ticked off that Portland beat us in having a gay mayor!! GRRRRRRRRR!!!!!
Why the hell would Mallahan scare you by more than words can describe? God forbid someone who worked in the private sector win an executive election…
Ed is a career politican with an enormous ego. He is known for his ego more than anything else. He also is weak. Remember how he got in the State Senate? He did not have the strength to challenge the sitting Senator (Pat Thibideau)…so he waited until someone ELSE announced they were running against Pat for the Senate. Then, and only then, did Ed decide to get in the race. He is an opportunist. He has no executive experience. Being a Senator (one of many in a deliberative body) does not make one qualified for an executive position like this. How about a woman write-in?