Sure, Darcy Burner kicked Dave Reichert’s ass in the January-March fundraising quarter, but how bad do things really look for Congressman 401? On The Road to 2008 takes a closer look at the numbers:
As compared to Reichert’s numbers from two years ago, he has raised $35,848 less than back then, while spending $20,928 more. He has $26,682 less cash on hand at this point than he had two years ago. Meanwhile Burner has $564,554 more cash on hand than she did at this point two years ago in a race she started as a complete unknown, and that ended with Reichert eking out a 7000 vote margin of victory.
I hate to focus so much on the money race, as I think it dumbs down the political debate, but at this point in the cycle it is usually one of the best metrics for evaluating the relative strength of campaigns. Without sufficient financial resources no congressional candidate can successfully get their message out, but dollars raised also reflects both the competency and efficiency of the campaign, as well as the general enthusiasm for the candidate. Burner received almost 4,900 contributions from individuals last quarter, about ten times that of Reichert, who once again relied on PAC money and high-dollar fundraisers to pad his coffers. And a preliminary analysis of itemized contributions shows Burner expanding her substantial lead in both in-district and in-state contributors.
This fundraising disparity represents a HUGE shift from two years ago, and no doubt is one of the reasons why Congressional Quarterly recently upgraded WA-08 to one of only three Republican held seats rated a “toss-up.” Eventually, once this money starts being spent, we’ll get a better idea of how close this race really is, but you can be sure that it is a helluva lot closer than Reichert and his surrogates are willing to acknowledge.
As few donors enthusiastically invest their money in losers, Reichert’s anemic fundraising numbers do reflect a lack of faith by his “investors” in his electoral prospects.
Combine a bland incumbent of an unpopular party with a dynamic and well-funded challenger in a year when everything is going against the GOP and you have the makings of a seat turnover.
That’s how the smart money is betting, anyway.
It really doesn’t matter what Reichert and his flunkies admit.
In fact, not admitting the truth has becoem the hallmark of conservatism.
No doubt about it, Darcy Burner wins this election by at least 4% points.
But Roger…ABC news tells us we are not interested in the collosal waste of the unnecessary war in Iraq, or the lack of regulation that has led to the subprime collapse or the way our jobs are shipped off to other coutnries – not we are not “bitter” and we mostly care about Obmama’s minister and who he sat on a board with…all to get him properly “vetted”.
I guess “vetting” means that you talk about personality defects in your opponent and stay away from the economic sinkhole of the economy, the lack of energy policy and the toll of the war in Iraq on lives and finances.
Darcy needs to concentrate on the trivial things to win the election…actually having a reponsible plan to deal with Iraq is not nearly as good as to keep repeating that the surge is working – despite what al Sadr and Mahdi army are doing.
http://thirdworldtraveler.com/.....erica.html
THE END OF AMERICA
Letter of Warning to a Young Patriot
by Naomi Wolf
“In 2002 the Bush administration created and named “Department of Homeland Security.” White House spokespeople started to refer to the United States, unprecedentedly, as “the Homeland.”‘ American Presidents have before now referred to the United States as “the nation” or “the Republic,” and to the nation’s internal policies as “domestic.”
By 1930 Nazi propagandists referred to Germany not as “the nation” or “the Republic”-which it was-but rather as “the Heimat “-“the Homeland …”
If it quacks like a duck….
Sheriff Dave captured thse ‘Green River Killer’. That’s the media narrative, and it will not change. Ignorance, laziness, and stupidity are walls against which God himself cannot prevail.
But, at least someone is trying. I’m voting for Darcy Burner.
http://thirdworldtraveler.com/.....icles.html
“Americans are too broadly underinformed to digest nuggets of information that seem to contradict what they know of the world… Instead, news channels prefer to feed Americans a constant stream of simplified information, all of which fits what they already know. That way they don’t have to devote more air time or newsprint space to explanations or further investigations.”
Tom Fenton, former CBS foreign correspondent
Still another problem for Sheriff Hairspray is that this time the NRCC isn’t going to come riding to his rescue with a couple of million last-minute dollars.
It’s not only that he’s such an unimportant back-bencher in their House caucus. It’s not only that they recently chose another guy for the seat on Appropriations that he desperately wanted. It’s not only that there are a couple dozen open Republican seats that they’ll try to protect from solid Democratic candidates. It’s not only that there are dozens of more powerful, more respected, more competent GOP House members in real danger of losing their seats.
It’s also that the NRCC doesn’t have anywhere close to the kind of bucks they’d need to defend on all of those fronts simultaneously. Thanks to the Democratic resurgence, and thanks to Howard Dean’s 50-state strategy, the NRCC (and their equivalent on the Senate side) will have to simply write off some races as lost causes, leaving the local candidate to fend for him/her self.
On any remotely rational rank-ordering of the House GOP races, WA-08 will come in far lower on the scale than the NRCC’s money supply can possibly reach.
N, I think you’re right about the multitude of reasons Reichert may be less likely to receive a lot of NRCC dollars. That’s going to be the big crunch.
On top of that, the DCCC has a lot of money they’ll be able to counter with this time, and Burner’s race is very likely to be a major recipient of DCCC dollars.
So money may not be everything, but it sure will be a significant player in this race.
Money indicates support. Dave doesn’t have it.