With President Bush’s job approval ratings consistently hovering around 30-percent, the standard Republican retort is that the ratings of the Democratic controlled Congress are even lower. Of course, there are two parties in Congress, and so it begs the question whether voters are a bit more discerning in attributing responsibility for their profound sense of disappointment…
According to the latest USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted Feb. 8-10, 2008, only 41% of adults likely to vote this November say they would support the Republican candidate running in their congressional district. Fifty-five percent say they would vote for the Democratic candidate.
The current 14-point margin in favor of the Democrats among likely voters is one of the highest Gallup has seen in recent years, along with two others late in the 2006 campaign.
Of course the election is still a long way off, and that margin could fluctuate wildly between now and November, but a similar result during the final days of the campaign would almost surely predict significant Democratic pickups in the House. And with Democrats holding substantial advantages in both voter enthusiasm and party identification (the Republicans lowest score in 20 years,) a second wave election remains a definite possibility.
One of the knocks against Darcy Burner we’ve frequently heard from concern trolls and self-soothing Reichertphiles is that if she couldn’t ride the big blue wave to victory in 2006, she doesn’t stand a chance against the two-term incumbent in 2008, an analysis that purposefully ignores a host of factors working in her favor the second time around. Near parity in name ID, a widening fundraising advantage, shifting suburban demographics, presidential year turnout and potentially long coattails emanating from the top of the ticket all lead me to believe that with or without a wave, Burner will be in a significantly stronger position in November than she was during her 2006 nail biter. And now it seems likely that she’ll have a second chance to ride that wave.
Bad things tend to happen when one party controls both the White House and Congress. Oversight is thrown out the door and extreme leglisation takes place. If that happens thsi time, the imminent 2-year backlash (think 1994, think 2006) will happen and the pendulum will swing back.
Though less happens with divided government, fewer stupid things happen as well…..
Reichert’s a hodad.
1 – Bad things like the New Deal.
** Concern Troll Alert ***
** Warning Warning ***
Talk about battered wife syndrome!
http://i260.photobucket.com/al.....McCain.jpg
It’s a long time from Feb to Nov, so I make no predictions. However, things are looking quite good for the Dems. As long as the republics dig in their heels and pull stupid stunts like the staged walkout (do podiums and microphones grow on the capitol steps?) to save the telecoms from accountability, they’re doing the Dems work for them.
Reichert got lucky in ’06, because he was only a one term representative. The republic stain of greed and corruption hadn’t touched him directly, so he wasn’t part of the group that desperately needed to tossed out. Turns out, the r’s don’t think he’s really one of them, so he didn’t get the seat on appropriations this week. Bummer, dude.
Darcy Burner needs to keep working hard and she’ll do well in Nov.
Actually, the walkout was more about preventing a vote to issue contempt citations for Harriet Miers and Josh Bolton, which didn’t work.
It really was a two-fer in the House. No immunity for telecoms and contempt citations for two Bush cronies. I love it when the Dems show a bit of spine!
Notice that Bush didn’t postpone his trip to Africa after all. I’m sure he pouted all the way there. Can you imagine being trapped on a plane with a whiny, pouting preznit? *shudder* Even on a plane as big and nice as AF1 you wouldn’t be able to avoid the temper tantrums.
Hmmmm.
A 71 year old guy with a bit of an anger management problem.
http://preview.tinyurl.com/2gea89
Is this old leopard going to change hist spots? Not likely.
Lily:
Yes, it’s a while until the election.
But it also takes quite a while after you run over a skunk for the car NOT to stink.
It’ll take an absolute miracle for Bushstink NOT to infect folks all the way down the damn ballot.
Ask any old-timer what happened to Republicans all over the damn country after Watergate.
#3,4,7
Marvin is your daddy. I am so far up in your psyche you dream about me. You can’t even control yourself when writing on a blog with your thoughts of me.
Couple of thoughts here.
1. Goldstein, why don’t you move into the 8th district ? That way you can truely claim you not only support Darcy, but actually vote for her as well. And it might be better for her to actually show up more in her district rather then having “press events” in Seattle with people who can’t vote for her.
And on top of it..;.it might be cheaper for you too…living in Duvall, Carnation or places like it. Might give you a whole new perspective.
2. Had to chuckle when you “suggested” that the low approval rating of Congress was due to the Republicans. Why did it drop then after the Dems took over ? Could it be that people realized they are all hat and no cattle ? Or in your terms, all rice cake, but no flavor ?
What ever happened to all the promises the Dems made ? All the actions they wanted to take ? All the investigations people like Waxman wanted to run ? Oh, yes, investigating Clemens and the steroids….or the latest, investigating whether the Lipitor ads with Jarvick show him or a double rowing….and on and on and on. Truely following the hearts and minds of the american public.
Could it be that….all the promises were empty promises ? Could it be that they knew all along there was nothing to investigate, but it sounded great to get votes ?
As TT already says: A divided power structure is a better choice to avoid stupid things. But boy, the dems are sure trying to better the Republicans. If Congress stays this way, McCain as pres is the right choice. If Hilary or Obama win the White House, I gurantee you that things will change quickly during the next elections….so there is hope either way
So when are you moving….Kirkland is great too, even has Senator “Impeach Bush” Oemig as a next door neighbor. Might be a bit pricy for you though. Or maybe Darcy can sublet her garage to you ?
There is indeed great public disaffection with the Democrats in Congress — for not being tough enough with Republicans. The only way you get approval ratings of under 20% for Congress is if a lot of Democrats are fed up with this Congress … which they are. But not for the reasons our righty friends imagine.
Grass-roots Democrats are fed up with the Democratic Congress because:
It has not impeached Bush or Cheney.
It has repeatedly rolled over to Bush’s bullying.
It has failed to halt Bush’s military misadventure in Iraq.
It has failed to confront Bush by passing legislation he opposes and forcing him to veto it.
It has made only half-hearted efforts to investigate and expose the lies and corruption of the Bush administration.
In short, rank-and-file Democrats are disgusted with their gutless party leaders. The common refrain among ordinary Democrats is that we want our party to “grow a spine.” We’ve load for bear but our party leaders palaver. We’ve had enough of that. The American people clearly want us to reinstitute government based on Democratic Party principles, and we’re frustrated by the thumb-twiddling of the likes of Pelosi and Reid while Rome burns. Both have to go. We want Pattons, not Chamberlains, because we understand what the Republican Party has turned into and we know what has to be done about it.
loaded
Another factor in Darcy’s favor that Goldy didn’t mention is that Reichert is running for re-election this year as a powerless member of the nearly powerless minority party in Congress. That was not the case in 2006. Two years ago, he could at least hold out to voters that if they re-elected him, he would bring home earmarks to the district. In the next Congress, by stark contrast, he will only be able to play an obstructionist role — which will accomplish nothing for his district and provide no benefits to his constituents. And, besides, Darcy hugs rabbits! http://tinyurl.com/opkdy
@1 “Bad things tend to happen when one party controls both the White House and Congress.”
Exhibit A: 2003 – 2005
@1 Well, Thomas, I didn’t see you complaining about this when Republicans had a death-grip on the government and wielded it with an iron fist. This seems to be an issue for you only as an argument against Democratic control of the government. To which I say, fuck you!
Your Republican buddies have done so much damage to this country we need a period of one-party rule to straighten it out. We need a “100 days” — a period in which Congress passes in rapid-fire succession a hopper of bills designed to fix all the things that have been destroyed or neglected during 8 years of irresponsible Republican rule.
Another problem with your thought pattern is that it assumes the existence of a constructive and responsible opposition party. We don’t have that in this country today. Currently, America has only one constructive and responsible political party, therefore the Democrats will have to carry all the freight by themselves. This means they will have to undertake the roles of both the majority party and the loyal opposition, the latter by exercising self-restraint (where warranted), because there is no other party that can fulfill the latter role.
What America needs long term is the dissolution and disappearance of the GOP followed by the formation of a new political party to act as a counterbalance to the Democratic Party. These processes of “creative destruction” are good for our economy, and they’re good for our political system as well. The GOP’s time has gone, and just as the GOP replaced the Whigs, it’s now time for something else to replace the GOP.
@6 “Can you imagine being trapped on a plane with a whiny, pouting preznit?”
That’s why planes have back doors. As D.B. Cooper proved, above a certain altitude and/or airspeed parachutes are superfluous, but sometimes jumping to certain death is preferable to one’s alternatives.
@7 “Is this old leopard going to change hist spots? Not likely.”
More likely he will drop dead before completing his term, so what really matters is who he picks as running mate.
@9 Your inflated opinion of yourself is not shared by most others on this blog. I just thought you ought to know that.
@10 “As TT already says: A divided power structure is a better choice to avoid stupid things.”
As in Trainwinder’s case, this suggestion coming from you would have had more credibility had it been made in a more timely manner, but in the present context merely rings hollow.
#18 Roger Rabbit says:
You don’t see me changing my name to who is roger rabbit do you? You don’t see Piper changing his name to who is roger do you? I’m not saying I’m up in your psyche, just those that include me in their name.
If someone references you in their name, feel free to take credit for it.
those = headless lucy
dutch @8 i think you need to have a job to live in the 8th.that leaves goldstien out
Pelletizer: Thomas Trainwinder is a lefty. If you can create a cogent search hecomplains of Republicans all the time. You of course have no memory of who is on your political side. Sometimes you really amaze me and other times you are who you are a 16%er.
Marvin: Good point. You me and Piper get our names sock puppeted all the time.
Personally I know these people really love us who have the cojones, cogliones, balls to take on over 62 16%er liberals.
Notice Goldy doesn’t have to lie about how extremely well qualified she is in his “host of factors”, because you lefties will vote for anybody with a “D” after their name.
Some day you’ll wake up and realize that you are being played for fools, fools.
#24 Puddybud, The Fact Finding Prognosticator… says:
It’s sad to say, but these 16%ers are the types that when a gunman bursts into their classrooms would freeze and become statistics.
’nuff said