In talking up his odds of defeating incumbent U.S. Sen. Patty Murray despite having lost two statewide races himself over the past six years, Republican challenger Dino Rossi likes to point out that he’d previously been handicapped by running in a presidential year. Republicans tend to do better in non-presidential years, when turnout is lower.
(I’ve always found this a curiously revealing assertion for a Republican to make, as it implicitly acknowledges that Republican candidates and their policies are markedly less popular with the general public than the results at the polls might indicate, and that Republicans thus benefit from lower voter participation. You’d think Republicans might be a little embarrassed by this admission, but oddly, no. But then, that’s a subject for another post.)
To some extent Rossi is right. About 25% fewer voters cast ballots in WA’s 2006 U.S. Senate race between Maria Cantwell and Mike McGavick than they did in the 2004 race between Murray and George Nethercutt, and the turnout drop-off between 2008 and 2010 is likely to be even greater. This should favor Rossi regardless of the political climate, as Democrats as a whole tend to be less reliable voters than Republicans, so when turnout drops, it almost always disproportionately hurts Democratic candidates.
But the question is, by how much?
For turnout is only one of many factors in an election, and while presidential year turnout certainly worked against WA Republicans in both 2004 and 2008, Rossi himself enjoyed the unique advantage of running against Gov. Chris Gregoire, who has never proven to be particularly popular, even amongst Democrats.
Patty Murray, on the other hand… well… folks just seem to like her.
For example, take a look at the 2004 race, a presidential year when both Murray and Gregoire were on the ballot. Murray actually outpolled John Kerry at the top of the ticket, receiving about 3% more votes than his 1,510,201 total. But Gregoire pulled in about 9% fewer votes than Kerry, and almost 12% fewer than Murray, only 1,373,361 total once all the recounts and court challenges were done.
And in 2008, even though she went on to defeat Rossi by a comfortable 6.5% margin, Gregoire once again tallied only about 91% as many votes as the Democrat at the top of the ticket, President Barack Obama.
That’s a pretty substantial drop-off, suggesting that Gregoire’s relative lack of likability made Rossi look more competitive than he otherwise might have against somebody like, say, Patty Murray. Who, you know, he’s actually facing off against this time around.
So yeah, turnout is going to be substantially lower in 2010 than it was in 2008, and that favors Rossi. But Murray is simply better liked by Democrats and independents than Gregoire ever was, and that’s a factor that by comparison, works strongly to Rossi’s disadvantage. And it’s a disadvantage I’ve never believed he could overcome.
A Dino Rossi in the Senate starts at the bottom in seniority. He’s just a yes man for Mitch McConnell and the rest of the Republican corporate stooges which is just fine by him and the crowd that brung him.
Things are tough enough in this State as they are. A Rossi in the Senate would be a DISASTER for Washington.
Please mark a vote for Patty Murray and send in your ballot by next Tuesday.
Don’t leave out that Dino is neither well liked nor likeable. He did his best in this state when the fewest people really knew anything about him.
Oh, and I just found out that Dino lives about ten blocks from me I drive by his house many times weekly. I haven’t figured out what do do with that information. And where we both live isn’t “Sammamish,” though Dino likes to say so. It’s just a swath of unincorporated King County between Issaquah and Sammamish.
I don’t view Washington & Oregon that much differently. Both have large “progressive” major cities and numerous college campuses in other cities. Yet here is where Oregon’s Governor’s Race stands today–
Wednesday, October 27, 2010
Interesting races…close & exciting.
I remind y’all that 2012 is the biggie as far as National goes. Nothing will happen the next 2 years other than Obama trying to by-pass Congress with Executive Orders and other means….to administratively push forth his agenda. I expect lots & lots of lawsuits as a result…helping to define the seperation of powers and what power a President really has.
Will be an interesting 2 years for you legal wonks. Obama will likely go too far. If he does, like he has thus far, he will lose in 2012 and a Republican will then immediately undo everything Obama did outside the Legislative process.
Rossi is leading among independents in every poll. This will be decided by turnout.
@4 The turnout likely just went and some independents swung to Dems up after witnessing a extremist teabagging thug do a curb-stomp on a defenseless woman while she was being held down by another violent wingnut thug.
steve–
You are foolish if you believe that is going to impact Independents. It might fire up the Kooks like you though.
Speaking of kooks, our prezdint cannot see enough of himself on TV
So tonite, Jon Stewart will try to joke around with ImamObaMao while citizens are struggling with no jobs and no hope….despite ImamObaMao’s promise of Hope & Change…unfulfilled.
Perhaps it is ImamObaMao who needs to release his mental health records??
Cynny at 6
Obama is campaigning for his party. That is what presidents do around election time. Going on John Stewart is a great way to reach younger voters, from whom we need a big turnout. You would criticize Obama for getting out of bed in the morning if that’s all you knew of his daily schedule. Did I ever tell you that shit on the sole of my shoe has more value than you do?
4. Chris Vance spews:
That’s the bottom-line Chris. You know, college students trying to enter the job market unsuccessfully are not counted as unemployed by the ImamObaMao Regime. There are a lot of them that put their future in Obama’s hands and are mighty disappointed.
I think Murray has really taken college kids for granted…and this block could be the difference if Rossi can educate them on how jobs are created…and they are not created by a Phys Ed grad from Eastern who worked 2 years as a pre-school teacher and taught 1 Parenting Class for 2 years at a CC…and then went into Environmental Activism with almost ZERO hard science.
Patty Murray is a classic case of rising way above her qualifications based on mumbo-jumbo.
Who would you trust most to create Private Sector Jobs…Murray or Rossi?
Murray has done nothing in 18 years but raise taxes and create barriers to business…resulting in where we are today.
Can you understand for even one fucking minute that it is not OK for you freaks to assault a woman? You can go to hell, KLOWN.
Chris Vance @4,
Um… technically, it’s always about turnout.
But the point is, Rossi seems to be implying that his chances of winning this year are good, based on the assumption that he would have won his previous races had they not been presidential election years.
7. proud leftist spews:
Do “GREAT” Presidents call the opposition “enemies”? NO.
Do “GREAT” Presidents tell the opposition they need to ride in the back of the bus? NO.
Obama is a disgrace…by his arrogant, condescending actions. This is the root cause of the pending doom of Progressivism. You chose a guy who’s father deserted him and desperately needs to be the center of attention..even bad attention.
You KLOWNS did it to yourselves.
BTW–
After 2012 elections, come join us.
We’ll all sit in the front of the bus together!
9. Steve spews:
Steve–what have you done to personally help this poor woman you cry for? NOTHING!
It’s not ok to assault someone. Hopefully the facts of this case will be all brought up in the appropriate court of law. You believe in innocent until proven guilty, don’t you steve?
That aside, voters are focused on the Economy, ObamaCare, National debt, Illegal Immigration….and voting records. Things the Democrats do not want to discuss.
“Do “GREAT” Presidents call the opposition “enemies”?”
Does a real man stomp on a woman’s head? Does a real man hide like you did for a day so you wouldn’t have to face what your teabagger associates did? You still won’t face it. What’s your candidate Rossi have to say about you teabaggers and your prediliction towards violence? Nothing. Nothing at all.
“You believe in innocent until proven guilty, don’t you steve?”
You try assaulting a woman in front of me and I won’t be waiting for no court of law. I’ll take care of you right then and there.
For the KLOWNS accusing the R’s of trying to buy this election. The Dems are outspending R’s by $200 MILLION!!
by Chris Stirewalt | October 27, 2010
Joe Miller (AK-TP) been fighting against answering any questions about his performance as an in-house attorney employed by Fairbanks North Borough, insisting his performance there was “exeptional” and “second to none”. If you don’t believe it, just ask him (Joe Miller).
But recurring questions (perhaps comming from some of his fellow employees) caused the news media to fight for access to the employment records. Upon receiving the records, they found a telling document – an admission from Joe Miller.
It seems thathe had accessed three employee’s computers without their permisssion so he could conduct political business there (he was seeking to oust the Republican Chairperson). Miller had tried to cover up his illegal conduct (using state property for partison activity is a crime) by emptying each computer’s chache. But he hadn’t realized that this would cause the other employees to report problems with their computers, which started an investigation.
When confronted, he at first denied he had done it. Then he admitted he had accessed the machines, but claimed it was only for work-related purposes. Then he finaly admits the truth, at which point he got a 15-day suspension without pay.
Yet when Murkowski called him out as a liar, Miller’s patron, Sarah Palin defended him.
Miller a liar, Murkowski on fire
Cynical:
I’m not generally a gambling man, but I’ll wager you as follows:
Fifty bucks on the Rossi/Murray contest. I’ll take Murray. I’d wager more, but my wife controls the marital community checkbook. Besides, it’s mostly for fun.
Loser has to pay the fifty bucks to a charity of the winner’s choice, in the name of the winner. The charity has to be non-political. I’ll pick Toys for Tots.
We can pick somebody to hold the money in the meantime.
What say ye? Offer good until Thursday, 17:00 p.m. PDT.
rhp–
I have said repeatedly that Rossi will likely not win because of his lack of Charisma. Murray has been pretty solid @ 49% which should be enough to ultimately win by 2-3% points.
Want to wager on this one?
Saturday, October 16, 2010
This is another interesting one in Obama’s home state where he has been trying desperately to help–
Wednesday, October 27, 2010
Remember rhp, this election is the stage-setter for 2012. Yes, the R’s would like to pick up as many Senate Seats as possible.
However, in 2012, there are 33 Senate Seats, of which 23 are Dems.
Even if the R’s don’t take the House/Senate or both….not much is going to happen the next 2 years. Lots of lawsuits and political posturing by both sides. YAWN! It won’t get exciting until we see who the Presidential Candidates are…and the Primaries Start in 2012.
Cynical @ 18: Sorry, I don’t know enough about most of the out-of-state races to want to make a wager on those.
But I don’t blame you for not wagering on the Murray/Rossi race.
Tell you what, I’ll make a donation to Toys for Tots in both of our names, anyway. But it will drive them crazy, trying to figure out how to credit a donation to “RHP6033 & Cynical”.
Cynical said: “…It won’t get exciting until we see who the Presidential Candidates are…and the Primaries Start in 2012.”
The primary campaigns for 2012 started in January 2009. If you don’t believe me, just look at what Sarah Palin’s been doing to position herself for the 2012 nomination. She’s raised money kept exclusively under her own control, and then parcelled out tiny bits of it (along with her endorsements) to long-shot Tea Party candidates. Even if only 1 in 4 win, those are people who owe their entire political existence to her, and as office-holders will have guaranteed seats at the Republican convention. That’s where she will call in her markers.
It’s only the voting that is delayed until 2012.
Wasn’t 2009 the first year that King County switched to all-mail?
It seems to me that the hippie liberal “drop off” effect may not be so great now that every registered voter in the most populous and left leaning county receives their ballot delivered to their door step. There will always be some decline in participation in mid-terms. But I’m not so sure its safe to anticipate the 2008-2010 decline by referencing the 2004-2006 decline. Very different circumstances in terms of the actual mechanics of voting.
LOL… I’ll bet the guy with the (R) by his name in the Colorado governors race is going to lose…
Not sure if it will be the Democrat, John Hickenlooper, or the Republican become independent Tom Tancredo, but tea bagger favorite Dan Maes (Tea Bagger) who’s running on the GOP ticket wont get anywhere near the governors mansion.
Yep!
It looks like the vote might be close in the senatorial election this time. Better get the King County Elections folks energized should there be the need of some “creative” counting of the votes! After all, it would look pretty bad for the Seattle Swells if Rossi won!
P.S. – I wrote-in for another person (not Murray or Rossi) on my mail-in ballot. It’s always a Hobson’s Choice when the choices are Democrats or Republicans.
Cynny: “Obama is a disgrace…by his arrogant, condescending actions.”
You consider Obama arrogant and condescending? Do you have any recollection of the Bush/Cheney regime? Those fucks defined arrogant and condescending.
proud,
I always thought Newt Gingrich was a pompous ass, too. The Dems don’t have a monopoly on arrogant assholes. The Reps have got quite a stable of their own horses’ asses! {Pardon the pun!}
rhp @ 20–
Now that’s funny stuff, I don’t care who y’ar.
And a great cause.
@28
It looks like Roy Blunt will be moving from the house to the senate from MO. He’s a total horses ass and a crook as well.
Michael–
Like Charlie Rangel & Maxine Waters…right?