One can make a strong argument that over the past six years, Attorney General Rob McKenna has proven the most adept politician in Washington state. Cautious, pandering and downright relentless in his pursuit of publicity, McKenna has simultaneously managed to privately court far-right, anti-tax, anti-government, anti-choice forces while successfully maintaining a public persona as one of those mythical “moderate” Republicans. Yet as tight a rope as he’s had to balance, I’d never seen him slip.
For a politician presumed to be running for governor in 2012, McKenna’s participation in a multi-state lawsuit challenging the constitutionality of health care reform seems baffling on its face, especially considering its stature as little more than a legal stunt. McKenna’s electoral strength is that, unlike most Republicans, he doesn’t do too badly in King County, winning it by a comfortable margin in 2008, and losing by less than 5 points in the much more closely contested contest from 2004. That, combined with nearly guaranteed landslide Republican margins in Central and Eastern Washington has made him the putative favorite in the 2012 gubernatorial race against nearly any Democratic opponent.
As long as McKenna maintains his moderate facade — and you know damn well the Seattle Times will do everything in its power to help him out in this regard — he’s damn hard to beat. So why would McKenna so very publicly throw in his lot with with Tenthers and Teabaggers and other far-right-wingers of that ilk?
The only thing I can think of, other than a hard night of drinking or a minor stroke, is to better position himself for a tough primary battle. And the only Republican in Washington state with the stature to keep McKenna off the November 2012 ballot is Dino Rossi.
So that begs the question: does Rob McKenna know something we don’t know? Is Rossi planning yet another run for the governor’s mansion? And has Rossi privately made his intentions clear?
I posed my theory to a handful of Republican lawmakers who were willing to talk with me — off the record — and while none had any first-hand knowledge of Rossi’s intentions, all seemed equally baffled by McKenna’s lawsuit. “This has gotta hurt Rob in King County,” one fellow GOPer told me, lamenting the damage to McKenna’s gubernatorial ambitions.
Yeah… no shit, Sherlock.
So the question remains, why? McKenna’s not stupid, so why would he risk alienating King County moderates for the sake of shoring up his support amongst the Teabagger/Tenther crowd? A stroke of political genius, or just your run-of-the-mill stroke?
AND FYI…
Over 5,800 6,100 Washington citizens have already joined the Washington Tax Payers OPT OUT of Rob McKenna’s Lawsuit Facebook group in less than 24 hours. Wow.
But why would he have a problem in the primary?
Wouldn’t the GOP see he was their best shot over twice lost Dino and gim him the nom?
I wondered the same thing too, about McKenna’s lawsuit.
But I didn’t consider Rossi running again, until I read your post. And then it hit me . . .
Read some of what is said over at http://www.biawblog.com/. They’ve been constantly bad-mouthing McKenna and suggesting his occasional public drifts to the left would cost him in a Republican primary. I always thought it dangerous of them to be so critical of the guy who very likely could appoint the next Ecology and L&I heads. And I thought it laughable that they could find a Republican willing to put their career on the line to run against Rob from the right.
Now I see it. BIAW knows that Rossi will run again (“3rd time’s a charm, right guys!?”), and knows that Rossi could beat McKenna in a primary. This would explain all the anti-McKenna rhetoric coming out of BIAW. (It’s also possible that this isn’t true. My only explanations for BIAW’s behavior would be (A) they’re moronic r-words or (B) Tom McCabe knows we won’t have a job long enough for McKenna to exact his revenge.)
Mike @1,
It’s a question of who the most energized primary voters are. If there’s a battle between Jay Inslee and Lisa Brown on the Democratic side, McKenna is going to have to rely solely on Republican primary voters to make through the top two.
McKenna started wearing out his welcome when he joined forces with Timmy Lie-man on his property tax initiative.
Even a few Republicans on the KC Council joined with the Dems and retaliated by taking away his “lollipop” funds.
One of the most hilarious government tv moments I’ve ever witnessed in my life.
@1: Logic fail. Assumes the Eastern Washington Republicans vote in a game-theoretic manner, not in a “who’s the craziest?” manner.
@2: “he” not “we” in the last sentence. SlipperyPete definitely does not work with Tom McCabe.
Running for AG is much different than running for governor, in any state. From what I’ve seen of McKenna he’s not even vaguely personable enough to pull it off. Dino had that whole George Bush “everyman” schtick down pat. McKenna doesn’t have that, and–at least to me–comes off as unlikable. Dino I’d have a beer with; Rob… no.
I don’t think he’d have any shot at Gregoire. 55-45 at least.
Rossi run for the third time? Certainly an object example of how doing the same thing over and over expecting different results is a sign of insanity.
Goldy,
With all due respect, the Facebook page is well over 6,000 at this time.
Proud to be a member of that group myself, now that I’ve moved back to Washington.
I think McKenna’s joining the lawsuit is lunacy and bad politics. And certainly not truly representing his “client”, the State of Washington — the Governor doesn’t want this lawsuit, nor does the Legislature.
That being said, doesn’t McKenna have the RIGHT to file this ridiculous lawsuit? The RCW’s define his powers and duties in fairly loose terms, and if McKenna decides Washington should sue over something, then he has the presumptive right to do so.
For example, I don’t recall Gregoire getting the approval of the Legislature to bring the tobacco lawsuit. Since the Republicans were solidly in control of one or more houses during the 1995 to 1998 time frame (and had some level of near or actual control for several years after that), she might not have been successful in getting such approval.
On the other hand, I think that a bill passed by both houses of the Legislature and signed by the Governor could direct McKenna to dismiss litigation brought in the state’s name.
This lawsuit by McKenna is so outrageous, that the Governor should consider calling a special session for this purpose, to make McKenna drop the lawsuit.
Goldy @ 3: Dang, I keep forgetting about the “top two” primary thing. It’s not enough to be the top dog on your side, you have to be at least the second-place dog in the whole pack. If McKenna faces a credible challenge from Rossi, then he splits the Republican vote, and two Democrats can end up on the ballot as taking the top two spots – the same thing which knocked Nickles out of office last year.
So McKenna’s got a vested interest in knocking Rossi out of contention early, so he’s the sole credible contender on the Republican side. Then it doesn’t matter how many ways the Democrats split their votes, he stays on the ballot (and can even revel in Fairview Fannie’s headlines about how he “won” the primary). But that only gets him to first base, then he has to backtrack fast in order to re-position himself to win the election.
he, but what can I say? Run, Rossi, Run!
I think this is the correct meme .. except, I would not assume it is Dino who is planning a run.
There are a number of potential Repricans, not all familiar to the voters … yet.
One possibility is that a true moderate (sane?) Republican exists and sees this as a golden opportunity. Such a person would ,,, if he had enough money … win KCounty in the primary and might get enouf indie votes to end up a more than creditble challenger for posn 1 or posn 2 in the final.
There are a lot of Evans Repubs in this state who are afraid that the Repricans are destroying their party. They are correct about that.
Just remember you read about it here first!
Just remember
Of course, the other possibility is that McKenna’s planning to run against Patty Murray for the US Senate. This would play well to the teabaggers who’ve been screaming for Murray’s head on a pike over the health care bill, and would also appeal to the eastern Washingtonians who’ve been led to believe neither of our Senators do much to their benefit.
It would make him a real hero to those constituencies if the Roberts/Alito/Scalia/Thomas Supreme Court had the chutzpah to uphold this cockamamie lawsuit. Considering their recent “free speech” ruling, and the decision that put George W. Bush in the White House, I wouldn’t rule that out.
ArtFart @13,
Despite this misstep, McKenna’s not that stupid. Patty Murray would kick his bony ass, and already has $5 million head start in cash on hand.
“So why would McKenna so very publicly throw in his lot with with Tenthers and Teabaggers and other far-right-wingers of that ilk?”
Because he has to. You can’t be both a moderate and a Republican anymore.
@15 Roger Rabbit 03/23/2010 at 5:25 pm
hit the nail on the head.
Look at Gov Crist’s flailing campaign in FL.
McKenna’s ridiculous and hopeless lawsuit is only explainable as a politician whose only hope is to appeal to a ridiculous, ill educated constituency.
13 – I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to find that Roberts et al have colluded with the 13 AG’s to bring the suit so they can rule in favor, like the good little activist fascists they are.
McKenna is in this for himself and for his little cabal of (lobbyist/propagandist) buddies, like college roomy and best pal Erik Smith* at Washingtonstatewire.com
It’s not about what’s best for the state. As Governor McKenna would have a bright spotlight on him and his buddies and couldn’t do much for his cabalists. His joining the lawsuit might mean that he’s trying to find easy money in wingnutville after his term as AG is up and that he’s not going to run for governor.
*My apologies in advance if I’ve gotten the wrong Erik Smith!
Unless this is an incredibly ill-considered act–which is possible–I’d judge that the radical right feels their power slipping away and has decided to make their move while they can.
Croak!
Adding to the chorus, I can -totally- see this suit going all the way to the Supremes and the whole bill being killed after all. Although that still doesn’t seem to help McKenna much in the long run with the moderate voters he has to woo.
That wailing sound you here is Joni Balter realizing that the love child she and Slade Gorton had will never be governor. Or anything else in this state.
@20. Geoduck 03/23/2010 at 7:43 pm,
Anything is possible, but go read the filed
whinecomplaint.If and when it gets to the Supremes they’ll need to throw out jurisprudence and actively re-interpret the constitution. If they do that, you’ll need more than a chance to buy a health insurance policy.
Interesting theory, Goldy. It sounds plausible, I think this will be a fun one to look back at in a few months/year-or-so and have either a “what was I thinking?” or a triumphant “I told you so” moment.
McKenna is not stupid. He may either be running for governor or senator; either way, he’ll have a national presence by doing this. And yes, he can file/join any lawsuit he wants; whether it gets anywhere is another matter. Dwight Pelz demanding documents from McKenna only hurts the taxpayers more, since we have to pay for those copies.
I wonder if the goal is to put the health care system before the Supreme Court so that the Court’s conservatives can mess with it.