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Incumbent Roulette

by Goldy — Monday, 6/22/09, 10:45 am

After eliminating the also-rans, and tossing Speaker Frank Chop as an outlier, the qualifying round wasn’t even close, with long-time incumbents Sharon Tomiko Santos, Mary Lou Dickerson and Phyllis Gutierrez Kenney topping the field, so now it’s time for a loser-takes-all, sudden death runoff in our efforts to determine the Seattle Democratic state representative most deserving of a serious challenger in 2010.

In making your choice, I urge you to consider three main criteria.  1) How well does the incumbent represent the progressive values of her district? 2) How effective is the incumbent in representing our interests. 3) How vulnerable is the incumbent to a serious challenge? (Please don’t forget number 3; that’s one of the reasons why I eliminated Chopp.)

Of course, there’s nothing scientific about these polls, and I don’t mean them to be a personal attack on anybody. But there is this sense in the local Democratic community that not only are such intra-party challenges futile, even discussing the possibility is somehow disloyal and wrong… an attitude that I believe leads to complacency and ineptness, and ultimately threatens the Democratic Party’s hold on the reigns of state government.

The poll is now live at the top of HA’s home page; cast your vote while you can.

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Comments

  1. 1

    Gidge spews:

    Monday, 6/22/09 at 10:58 am

    Is there going to be a similar poll for State Senate?

  2. 2

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    Monday, 6/22/09 at 11:22 am

    “(Please don’t forget number 3; that’s one of the reasons why I eliminated Chopp.)”

    Our Iranian friends would understand; they can’t get rid of their entrenched incumbents, either.

  3. 3

    Goldy spews:

    Monday, 6/22/09 at 11:30 am

    Gidge @1,

    We did the poll for State Senate. Sen. Ken Jacobsen won.

  4. 4

    40-year Democratic Voter spews:

    Monday, 6/22/09 at 12:47 pm

    In addition to local Democrats thinking intra-party challenges are futile, disloyal, and wrong, they can also be extremely disruptive to Party cohesion.

    No matter how lazy or dis-engaged an incumbent becomes over time, they still have their friends and supporters in the local Party organization. And for prospective challengers, many of their friends are also her friends.

    I don’t live in he 36th District, but I expect some of the wounds inflicted by the Helen Sommers/Alice Woldt contest are still to be healed.

  5. 5

    Gidge spews:

    Monday, 6/22/09 at 12:58 pm

    Now I do remember seeing that. Sorry, Goldy, if my question suggested that your coverage is anything but memorable.

  6. 6

    Jeff spews:

    Monday, 6/22/09 at 1:09 pm

    @4 I didn’t live in the 36th in 2004, but I do now and I’ve heard about how divisive the Sommers/Woldt race was. But I don’t see any hard feelings any more. And everyone seems to agree (including Alice) that Helen became a much better legislator after she had to run a tough race.

  7. 7

    Mr. Cynical spews:

    Monday, 6/22/09 at 1:12 pm

    Goldy–
    I think you need to add your pal Ross Hunter (D-Medina) to the list. From today’s Seattle Times:

    Bill gives in-state tuition to foreign professionals, families in Washington on visa
    A little-noticed measure passed by the Legislature and signed into law by the governor will extend in-state tuition rates at Washington colleges and universities to some foreign professionals working at companies like Microsoft and Amazon, as well as to their children and spouses.

    By Lornet Turnbull

    Seattle Times staff reporter

    A little-noticed measure passed by the Legislature and signed into law by the governor will extend in-state tuition rates at Washington state colleges and universities to foreign professionals at companies such as Microsoft and Amazon, as well as to their children and spouses.

    Under House Bill 1487, which takes effect July 1, the foreign workers would qualify for the same tuition rate as state residents if they have been in the state at least a year on certain kinds of temporary work visas, such as the H-1B.

    The measure passed amid a roiling budget crisis and hundreds of millions of dollars in cutbacks to higher education. It was nicknamed the “Microsoft subsidy bill” by some lawmakers who say the software giant and its workers surely could afford to pay the higher tuition rates.

    Subject to lively legislative debate, the bill received little attention outside the Capitol. An analysis put the immediate tuition revenue loss at the University of Washington at about $430,000, with potential for bigger losses in future years, and about $215,000 at Washington State University.

    State Rep. Ross Hunter, D-Medina, the bill’s sponsor, retired from Microsoft in 2000 after 17 years. He said employers in his Eastside district sought the provision as a tool for recruiting foreign talent.

    “There are a bunch of people in my district who are in this situation,” said Hunter, who is running for King County executive.

    Read the details on this bill Goldy.
    Hey SeattleJew, is this the kind of Higher Ed Reform you have been blabbing about????

  8. 8

    40-year Democratic Voter spews:

    Monday, 6/22/09 at 1:17 pm

    Jeff @6, thanks for responding to my post @4. Glad things are going well in the 36th, and you are smart and correct in observing the potential upside to an intra-party contest, even one that doesn’t succeed on election day.

  9. 9

    Jeff spews:

    Monday, 6/22/09 at 1:33 pm

    @8 I should add that I do NOT think that Mary Lou Dickerson needs an intra-party challenge.

    She fought tooth and nail this past session to protect the GAU program and other social services and was largely successful. She said she would commit suicide in her office before she would let our state’s most vulnerable citizens lose their lifeline.

    That’s the kind of tenacity we want in our progressive leaders, and I still don’t understand why she’s getting votes at the top of this page.

  10. 10

    Matthew spews:

    Monday, 6/22/09 at 1:42 pm

    Goldy,

    Given your opposition to the top-two primary, I must point out that it makes intraparty challenges such as you propose (and I heartily agree with) much more feasible. Under the old system, the challenger gets bumped off by the incumbents crusty core of voters in a low-turnout primary.

    Now, the challenger can prove that the challenge is serious by just getting close in the primary, which brings in support from people who were reluctant to publicly oppose the incumbent before. And then has a real chance to win in the general.

  11. 11

    Goldy spews:

    Monday, 6/22/09 at 2:11 pm

    Matthew @10,

    Actually, I disagree. I think a challenger has a much better chance of making a case to the core, Democratic primary voters, then to the less engaged, broader general electorate, who are more likely to be influenced by name ID.

    Top-two also eliminates the opportunity of surprise. Come close, or even beat an incumbent in August, and the powers that be have plenty of time to rally behind them in November.

    But I guess we might know in a few years which one of us is right. If more incumbents are challenged, and more knocked off under top-two than before, I suppose I’ll have to reevaluate my position.

  12. 12

    N in Seattle spews:

    Monday, 6/22/09 at 2:53 pm

    To 40 year DV @8,

    Actually, things aren’t going all that well in the 36th. The Carlyle-Burbank race brought out some real ugliness, splintering the org’s leadership. An endorsement was rammed through, but the org’s endorsed candidate was thoroughly trounced, leaving a greatly weakened organization.

    As Jeff @6 rightly notes, the Sommers-Woldt race left few scars, and served as a wake-up call for Helen in her last years in the seat. The eventual effect of Carlyle-Burbank on the Thundering 36th has yet to be played out.

    To Jeff @9,

    I’m happy to hear that Mary Lou found something to focus on. From what I’ve seen of her over a number of years, I’d suggest that calling her a dim bulb does a disservice to bulbs everywhere.

  13. 13

    Daddy Love spews:

    Monday, 6/22/09 at 3:44 pm

    Deep thought:
    The GOP may have just lost Latinos for a generation.

  14. 14

    Michael spews:

    Monday, 6/22/09 at 4:26 pm

    What I’d like to see:

    Better pay for legislators and a 200 day work year, every year. Being an effective state legislator is a full time job.

    State Reps serving 4 years and Senators serving for 6. Let them focus on the work, not elections. Term limits: 3 terms for Reps, 2 for Senators or a combined total of 12 years in office- life time, not consecutive.

    And INTRA-PARTY Challenges the rule not the exception. A lively debate and an engaged public is good for the Republic. If local party members are too thin-skinned and snotty to handle intra-party election fuck-um.

  15. 15

    Haywood Jablome spews:

    Monday, 6/22/09 at 9:05 pm

    Well, at least we can all be thankfull for the progressives in our state legislature. I mean after all, what better way to say they support our state’s middle class than to make them subsidize the higher education of Indians, Pakistani’s, etc at UW and WSU…..And you democrat numbnuts keep voting these people back into office – idiots.

    Here is a thought. With our state’s universities cutting back on enrollment, why are ANY foreigners allowed into our colleges?

    I sure am glad my taxes can go to pay for the nuclear physics degree of some guy from Pakistan – gee, that makes a hell of a lot of sense given today’s world.

    I am convinced that our politicians are a combination of the most crooked and the dumbest citizens we have to offer.

  16. 16

    kurisu spews:

    Tuesday, 6/23/09 at 8:33 am

    @9 Mary Lou’s problem is that she doesn’t focus solely on social services- as the only Seattle member of the transportation committee, she was out supporting the Choppaduct and talking as if she were an engineer.

  17. 17

    Puddybud is shocked SHOCKED spews:

    Tuesday, 6/23/09 at 4:01 pm

    Hey Cynical@7, Puddy noticed no HA swineflu weasel would touch your comment, not even the head weasels.

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