Just before the first polls started closing out East yesterday, I made my predictions:
Patty Murray beats Dino Rossi by five-plus points, Dems lose WA-03, but incumbents hold on in all the other WA congressional districts. Meanwhile Dems hold control of both houses of the Washington state legislature, though R’s make a game of it with the state Senate. Initiatives 1053 and 1107 win, all others lose, but 1100 staggers around in a drunken daze for a week before we know the final outcome.
Nationally, Dems hold Senate with 52 or 53 seats, but lose control of the House, giving up about 50.
So how’d I do? Not bad.
Once all the ballots are in, Patty Murray will go on to beat Dino Rossi by almost three points, not the five-plus I predicted, but that’s what I get for being too specific. It also looks like I nailed the US Senate, the state legislature and the ballot measures. My biggest miss looks like the US House, where Rep. Rick Larsen seems likely to lose, if barely, in WA-02, and the R’s will pick up a handful more seats nationally than I expected.
Otherwise, election night unfolded pretty much as I expected.
They say you can’t win ’em all but we conservatives sure won a fucking big bunch of them!!!!!
Goldy do you know the numbers for the state legislatures, how many seats do the Dems hold and how many do the Republicans hold?
goldy roolz!
stock tips?
btw trillion dollar endless war is really “conservative.”
@1 You didn’t win enough power to implement your agenda at either the national or state levels. The only thing you won is ownership of the gridlock that’s certain to occur over the next two years, for which frustrated and angry voters certainly will punish your party again in 2012. Enjoy your “victory.”
Goldy–
What about your prediction and all the energy you putting into TAXING THE RICH GUYS scam??
Old Fart Gates really screwed you KLOWNS.
Do you really think he wanted this to pass?
By putting this on the ballot now and bungling the campaign, Gates has essentially shoved it to the backburner for another 10 years or more.
Methinks you have been duped friend.
Then you gloss over that you were 15 seats wrong on the House. 15 seats==30 seat margin.
Pretty humorous Goldy.
Your psychy is a bit disheveled today.
It’s understandable.
Why not stand up and take your beating like a man? At least Obama did that.
You are more like Pelosi/Reid and the other moonbats.
God Bless America!!
@3 “stock tips?”
Pundits are predicting a rally going into 2011, which makes sense, because corporate profits are approaching pre-recession records and corporations are sitting on mountains of cash that can be used to boost dividends, buy back stocks, make acquisitions, or expand into new markets. In addition, interest rates are likely to remain at historic lows for some time to come because of high unemployment and anemic growth, and low interest rates have historically been good for stocks. I’m not quite fully invested, I’m 97% stocks and 3% cash right now, but I’ll probably push my remaining marbles into the market soon. As of today, the value of my portfolio is only 2% below its pre-recession all-time high.
Funny that Raygun took an “ass-pounding” (Bob’s usage) as well in his first midterm.
But then the economy turned around and he won a second term.
We need a repeat of that for Obama to be re-elected – unfortunately that would also be good for the Republicans in Congress. An economic turnaround would mean a yea vote for divided government.
But I fear stagflation if the Fed’s quantitative easing gets out of control. The electorate is a little more educated about the Fed but not all that much. Obama will get the blame for bad Fed policy just like previous Presidents and his party will suffer with him.
Oh well Obama has only himself to blame for re-appointing Bernanke – the fool who did nothing while Wall Street melted down the economy.
Rabbit–
33 Senate Seats in 2012 up for re-election.
23 are Dems.
Here they are–
The only vulnerable R is maybe Scott Brown.
9 safe for sure.
The Dems have lots of vulnerable ones..
1) Nelson (Fl)
2) Stabenow (MI)
3) Klobuchar (Mn)
4) McCaskill (Mo.)
5) Tester (MT)
6) Nelson (Neb)
7) Menendez (NJ)
8) Bingaman (NM)
9) Conrad (ND)
10)Casey (PA)
11)Brown (OH)
12)Webb (VA)
13)Cantwell (WA)
14)Kohl (WI)–likely to not run
And what if Feinstein bails out?
14-15 Democrat Senators and the President…all in contested races.
Who is going to control the Senate after 2012 elections? Answer: R’s
By how much? Filibuster-proof is possible.
Likely after 2014 elections.
Will Obama win? Possible if he becomes Clinton II.
Mrs. Rabbit explained this morning why she voted for Rossi, and Patty Murray (and her staff) had damn well better listen, because Mrs. R. is no rightwinger, she’s as progressive as they come and has been a reliable Democratic vote until now.
She complained that Murray isn’t “approachable” and doesn’t respond to letters and e-mails from her long-eared constituent. What it boils down to is, when Mrs. Rabbit goes to the trouble of writing to Murray about an issue, she wants Murray’s office to acknowledge receipt of her communication and at least pretend she exists. According to Mrs. R., that hasn’t been happening and she cast her vote for Rossi to send Murray a message to stop ignoring her.
This is very basic stuff. It’s grade-school politics, and there’s no excuse for it. Responding to constituents is the most important task that a congressional staff has, and if they can’t get this right, they should all be fired and replaced by someone who knows how to pick up a phone or press “reply” to send back a canned e-mail. Mrs. Rabbit’s expectations are reasonable; she doesn’t expect personal attention. She’s pissed because she’s not getting the canned responses from Murray that congress critters routinely send to their constituents.
Listen up, Patty. You’ve apparently been re-elected, but this one was a squeaker, and if you can’t hold onto voters like Mrs. Rabbit you could be in real deep shit in 2016. Just press the fucking “reply” button when Mrs. Rabbit writes to you and send her the canned response. That’s all it takes.
Are you listening?
@6 Go ahead and be smug about the fact that rich people will continue to pay one-fifth as much of their income in state taxes as poor people pay. That’s exactly the kind of system assholes like you want. Fuck you, goatfucker.
Awwwwwww Rog–
Mrs. Rabbit wants the touchy-feely Murray form letters to paste up on your fridge.
Apparently you aren’t addressing her need for affection…so she is desperately seeking it from……….PATTY MURRAY??
Murray will not run in 2016.
She is ugly now..and will be real ugly 6 years from now.
@7, Roger: I read that “insiders” (CEOs, etc.) are selling vice buying (some as high as ~3200:1).
What’s up, comment?
@9 Of course we have more senators up for re-election in 2012. That’s because we have more senators. Neener neener
Rog @ 11–
You are not handling this ass-whoopin’ very good. Turn up your oxygen tank now!!
Things will soon sort out.
Have you heard anything about Tim Sheldon caucusing with the R’s if it will give the R’s control of the State Senate??
Same with Hargrove…if necessary??
When are we going to see Goldy’s analysis of the State Legislature??
Seems to have slipped his alleged mind.
It’s understandable under the circumstances.
Hard to process so much bad news all at once.
Perhaps if you were grounded in Faith Goldy?
And no, not Faith Hill?
You are fighting a spiritual battle by worldly means. You do not even understand what the real battle is. Puddy does. Perhaps he will explain it to you.
RR@5:
Do the Republicans have an agenda? I mean, other than “cut taxes” and “oppose Democrat”?
@17 Yes, it’s “turn America into the Galt Gultch paradise previously known as Somalia.”
@13 I wasn’t aware of this, but I’d urge you to examine the details of those transactions. If a CEO has 1,750,000 shares in his company and sells 5,000 of them, that doesn’t necessarily mean he thinks it’s time to take profits. He may be buying his son a Porsche as a Christmas present.
I followed insider trading for a while in 2007 and 2008, and in particular the buying and selling activities of a (former) billionaire who owned the majority of the stock of a company in which I owned a couple hundred shares. This guy called it completely wrong. He bought more shares with his own money at the stock’s peak price just before the stock lost 80% of its value in the market plunge. It still hasn’t come back to what he paid for those shares. I saw that happen with several other big shareholders, too. I don’t think these guys can time the market any better than you or I can, meaning not at all. They’re guessing just like we are.
What you have to do is understand the company’s products and market position, know how to read its financials, and form your own judgment about whether the stock is cheap, fully valued, or overpriced. Then be prepared to be patient, and when it moves, be careful you don’t sell too soon.
A case in point is KBR, the engineering and construction spinoff from Halliburton that I bought back in January because its then-price of $20.62 looked too low to me in terms of forward p/e, price-to-book ratio, and several other measures I use to judge value. My reasoning is that if a company has an intrinsic value and future prospects that appear to be undervalued by the market, it’s a buy, and then you hold it until the market responds to that “free” value. Of course, there are numerous ways this can go off the rails, which is called “risk” and it’s what you’re paid for anytime you make money on a stock by buying it before the rest of the market does. This one is doing okay; as of yesterday, KBR was $26 which is an annualized gain of 29% in less than a year. I’ll certainly take that in the current market (although I’ve done much better, when the economy was better; I’ve bought stocks that tripled in eight months).
Picking stocks is difficult and I won’t pretend it isn’t. The stock market is treacherous and some of my picks fail. That’s inevitable. At the end of the day, this is not science or accounting or even simple math; it often comes down to gut feelings. Recently, a block of stock I paid over $2,000 for was worth less than $300, close to a 90% loss. It had been delisted from the major exchanges and Value Line had dropped it from their coverage. Yet the company had only one money-losing year (2008) and was still in business. Several months ago, when the stock had doubled from its low but was still very cheap, I made a critical decision to risk another $3,000 to sextuple my position in the stock. It has doubled again since then, and I now have a profit equal to what I originally invested in the stock. But this story isn’t over yet, because this company’s profits are climbing back to pre-recession levels and its share price recovery is only beginning. I’m looking for my total investment of $5,000 in this stock to eventually be worth somewhere between $25,000 and $50,000.
@17 Yeah, they do. Break down the wall of separation between church and state. Impeach Obama and deport him to Kenya. Give more tax breaks to businesses and rich people. Repeal health care reform and dismantle Social Security and Medicare. Privatize everything. It goes on, but I think you know what the rest of it is.
@#5-Wabbit – 17 State legislatures flipped to the GOP and we now hold about 29 governorships. You can bet your ass that’ll impact 2012. Maine now has a 100% GOP Legislature. Nary a Democrat anywhere.
@8 Personally, I think the Fed’s idea of expanding the money supply by buying bonds is inflationary, won’t have a stimulating effect, and should be shitcanned.
@21 Goody for you. So enact your agenda in Maine.
@16
Derek Kilmer (D), Larry Seaquist (D), Chris Reykdal (D), Sam Hunt (D), Troy Kelly (D), Tami Green (D), Steve Conway (D), Connie Ladenburg (D), Laurie Jenkins (D), Jeannie Darneille (D), Tracey Eide (D), Mark Miloscia (D), Tim Sheldon (R) Oops, I mean (D), Kathy Haigh (D), Fred Finn (D), Andy Billig (D- Yay Spokane!), Timm Ormsby (D Yay Spokane!), a bunch of people from Seattle that nobody really gives a fuck about (D), all headed to Olympia.
The state Democrats did just fine.
Did what’s his head, the wife beater, win? That’s one race I wouldn’t mind the Democrats losing.
@21!- I erred in the 100% thing. Misread the article.
@21
Maine Republicans aren’t like the Republicans from the south or out west. You might be disappointed.
@19, Roger: Thanks!
I get all that, but is it something you watch? And what I read was in general (about six or eight recent things), not limited to an industry or specific company.
@24: What I read says 25-24 D Senate. Which basically means R majority when you count The Other Timmeh! in that total.
Regardless, since we now have 2/3rds minority budget tyranny back, I suspect we have a pile of shit (getting higher and deeper by the minute) to deal with and no shovel.
Sadly, there’s 14 Billion in tax breaks/exemptions, with at least 1.5 Billion that don’t meet even a smirk test, and no effective way to get at them.
I don’t envy the leg guys right now…
@28
I think it might be a blessing in disguise and we might get our tax mess fixed out of it. Or maybe, it’s time to sock up on canned goods, propane, wooden matches and shells for the 12 gauge. ;->
I’m GLAD the Republicans won the house (but not the Senate). Now we get to sit back and LAUGH as John Boner tries to submit his magic budget that cuts $4 trillion from next years budget…er. See we’re ALREADY in deficit spending and he wants to DRASTICALLY increase it by extending a MASSIVE unfunded tax cut that the actual deficit hawk Republicans stopped last time and made temporary BECAUSE we simply didn’t have the money.
So YOU GO GIRL! You put your money where your orange mouth is and whip up a budget…with MORE spending on the military, keeping Medicare, Social Security, and trimming $4 trillion at the SAME time! I CAN’T F**KING WAIT to see how he pulls that out of his ass! I know they want to cut across the board Federal department spending by like 5%-10%…that’ll make up 0.8% of the money he needs. Typical greedy childlike Republicans, wanting something for nothing and leaving it to the adults (Democrats) to clean up their spilled sippy cup. Just business as usual…
LOL
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Once 2012 rolls around and Boner shows he can’t POSSIBLY submit a balanced budget and still pay for all the stuff he wants and cut taxes and increase spending all magically at the same time…it’ll give PERFECT election ammunition for Obama to say “I told you so….now grow up.”
I am still holding out for Larsen, as you reported lots of ballots to be counted, he did very well in King County, the 4:30 report and the Thursday report will be interesting.
@16
You are fighting a spiritual battle by worldly means. You do not even understand what the real battle is. Puddy does. Perhaps he will explain it to you.
Damn boy! What you’ve been smoking?
@28
We’ve got a solid block of good Democrats, a few of which are from Spokane- which helps, and a few complete wing jobs on the right. We should be able to come though just fine. And if not, we put more and better people in office in 2012.
RR@20: Oh, forgot about the religion thing, though I wonder how genuine that is among politicians, in terms of a political agenda, or whether that’s just grist for the other two.
A suggestion for a third would be “start war,” to get something into the foreign policy column.
@31, Jay “I am still holding out for Larsen, as you reported lots of ballots to be counted, he did very well in King County, the 4:30 report and the Thursday report will be interesting.”
Uh, wow, as of last night in King county he had 82 votes, 12 more than Koster. Larsens (Kosters) district has very little population in King county. I realize that King county is the “ace up the sleeve” for a lot of democratic dreams, but to believe that King county will pull it out for Larsen is a bit far fetched! Then again, this is a liberal “win at all costs” blog, so your dreams may very well come true; just ask Christine!
Have a nice day (free geography lessons if asked),
Farmer Fred
@35
That’s the thing about swing districts, they swing. Not surprised to see Larson down.
I really am surprised to not see Murray up by a few more points. I suppose that’s what happens when you spend all your time telling people not to vote for the other guy and forget to tell them why they should vote for you.
@36,I agree. Larsen was a decent Dem also. I think Murray will continue to pad her lead.
F Fred
@37
The latest count has Larsen up by about 400 votes. See swing districts keep this fun. I’m in Norm Dicks district, haven’t checked to see if he’s ahead…
goldy and the dems…OWNED.
It must be sad to be a Washington state troll/righty/douchebag. No, worse than sad…pathetic and tragic. Murray won, Inslee wiped the floor with his ‘opponent’, Norm Dicks embarrassed his clown, Rick Larsen will end up victorious, Adam Smith eviscerated his sacrifical lamb and Jim McDermott disected that poor frog.
The cross-eyed, inbred hillbilly builders association didn’t fool anyone.
What’s the basis for the gloating? Moving to Texas or Kentucky?
slingshit,
No one disagrees this state is wildly libtardo. That’s the problem; lock step frog marching to the same drummer boy!
Poor little orange puddy. Are you moving to Ohio to be closer to the big orange boner?