Yesterday, Democratic incumbent state Sen. Randy Gordon was trailing Republican Steve Litzow by 214 votes in LD-41. After today’s tally, that margin is down to 142. Hmm.
On the one hand, there aren’t a lot of ballots left, so you still gotta consider a Gordon victory a long shot. On the other hand, the remaining sample is so small, there’s room for a lot more statistical variation, so it’s far from impossible. But either way, it sure does look like we’re headed into a hand recount.
Speaking of which, still no update from Pierce County, where LD-25 is destined for a hand recount too.
UPDATE:
With zero ballots reported left to count, right-wing, anti-girl-scout nutbag Hans Zeiger leads Rep. Dawn Morrell by 39 votes in LD-25. In-fucking-credible. If this survives the recount, well, welcome to the future of the Washington State Republican Party.
Unfortunately, he will feel right at home with the likes of Pam Roach, Joe Zarelli, Don Benton and many others in the Goper delegation in Olympia.
Let the train wrecks begin!
You may have noticed that I’m not real thrilled with the Democrats right now. Dawn Morrell was one of the few good ones, having her out of office will be a real loss for the people of Washington.
Gordon is a blowhard, too full of himself, so I am not surprised he is losing. But Hans? Unfucking believable – he is a complete nut. How did he win?
The 41st LD is still workable. Gordon was down by 214 yesterday with 25,000 ballots left to count. Today he is down 142 with 15,000 ballots left to count. Extrapolate from that, and you have Gordon down by 38 votes when you get down to zero ballots left to count.
There is still room for victory with a superior signature rehabilitation effort — don’t they have until Monday, the day before certification (?) to rehabilitate signatures?
Democrats usually gain on hand recounts, based on the demographics involved. 38 net votes might be stretching it for a LD with nearly 60,000 ballots, but it is do-able if the margin tightens a bit more than that.
Zeig Hans may not be as bad as some of the nutcases the GOP has elected this year. First of all, the fellow seems to actually have a functioning brain, and in fact seems to be fairly intelligent. Secondly, he has (at least facially) repudiated many of the extreme statements he made in the past. Third, the issues he chose to run on in this campaign seem relatively moderate, compared to many of the nutjobs.
Zeig Hans may actually turn out to be halfway sensible in the future, and might not provide Goldy with much entertainment material if he actually ends up in the legislature.
Off topic, I am watching the KC council passing the budget.
Reagan Dunn is a piece of shit.
Kelli Linville is only 158 votes behind in the 42nd LD. Not quite close enough (150 votes) for a hand recount, but definitely close enough for a machine recount. Doesn’t look like Whatcom has any ballots on hand left to count, but more could still arrive, and there is always signature rehabilitation, etc.
3
Randy Gordon is hardly a “blowhard.” I’ve met the guy. He is exactly the type of person we need in government. He is, most importantly, serious. He gives a shit. He ponders. Republicans don’t do that.
Randy Gordon “ponders”??
That’s hysterical.
Hed vote for all tax increases, raises & bennies for Union bosses…but at least he ponders
Fred Jarrett was the perfect representative for the 41st. Smart, sensible, and a good listener. I, too, have met Gordon several times and he is full of himself and not really interested in his constituency, particularly in the area of K-12 education. Too much in the WEA’s corner and not the students and taxpayers. He talks a lot about me, myself, and I. He is nothing like Fred. Because of this, the four, usually democratic votes in our home went for Litzow.
41st District Voter–
Bingo.
Gordon is pretty much a clone of Goldy in that regard…that’s why Goldy loves him. For Goldy, it’s like looking in the mirror every morning!
If Gordon pulls this out, I doubt he will take the voter apathy towards him as any sort of guidance and change how he operates as a representative of this district. He doesn’t seem like the type. We can hope, but that would require a lot from a person who regards himself so highly.
@10…fred jarett endorsed randy gordon …..
this rather undermines your credibility and so we shouldnt’ believe a word you say.
@12: it’s stupid to think that for RG to get 49.99999 and SL to get 50.000001 percent is some kind of indication of voter apathy to RG.
Do you know how numbers work?
@4) Where do you get your numbers? there isn’t anything near 15,000 ballots left to count for the 41st lD race. I think it is something closer to 800.
#3
I agree with you. Gordon is a pompous blow hard.
Remember he considered a run for congress a few years back? thought he could start at the top, now he humbly ran for a state seat. He’s got that arrogant Harvard Grad attitude which turned many of us off in the 41st.
Just because the Sec of State page shows no ballots left to count in Pierce County, you should not assume that the count will not be updated. Military ballots have still be arriving daily. The numbers are not large and aren’t likely to change the need for hand recount but a few ballots could still be added to this total.
sarge @14,
I’m sure the Popester meant to say that there were 15K ballots remaining countywide, and that LD41 probably has its proportionate share of that total. Which I’d guesstimate to be around 1150, of which Gordon would have to take about 56% to overtake Litzow.
That 15K is, of course, an estimate. And it doesn’t include the ballots that haven’t even gotten to the verification stage, such as the 309 that arrived at KC Elections yesterday, of which 29 were LD41 ballots.
@13…um…no need to be rude. Of course Fred endorsed RG. That’s how party politics work. I know Fred has a good relationship with Litzow as well but when you are in a party, open support of those on the other side is frowned upon generally. I know of a few eastside Dems (no, I won’t name them) who privately say they prefer Litzow to Gordon as far as solving regional issues) but they won’t publicize this.
Yes, I know the math. Being that RG holds the office already, that generally provides an advantage with the electorate. When someone holding the office barely wins, it should be taken as an indicator. Believe me, if Jarrett had run for re-election in this seat, his support would be much greater than that of RG. The 41st is not a hardcore liberal district.
As of the 11/18 posting, another 5000 ballots were counted in King County with 390 being reported for this race. Litzow went from +142 to +158. The first time in a week he has reversed the trend. King County estimates still 10,000 ballots county wide so maybe another 600 or so in this race.
Well, even if Zeiger manages to pull it off, I can’t imagine the R leadership giving him any of the spotlight. It will be more like: sit down, shut up and we’ll tell you how to vote. And, by the way, don’t even think of upstaging Rep. Dammeier. They’ll pop his bubble faster than you can say “girl scout feminist abortion training camp”.
I couldn’t have said it any better myself.
Looks like Tree Hugger and congressman wannabe Gordon lost according to the most recent update (11/23/10) from King County elections office.
Go Litzow!
On to the hand recount. Litzow seems safe with the final numbers being just under 200.