Good morning. Please vote if you haven’t yet. A ton of people in Washington have voted. But if that’s not you, there’s still time. Drop off your ballot by 8:00 on Tuesday or have it postmarked by then. Vote by mail is being screwed over in some states, but in Washington, your ballot should be fine in the mail. You might want to put it in the mail on Monday to be safe.
Anyway, wash your hands right now.
A little analysis on why “vote-by-mail” will probably transform the electoral composition in many places this year.
VBM offers ground game opportunities to work voter files repeatedly and more efficiently. If you have a universe of your targeted voters who will receive a VBM ballot you know when it was post marked, within a few days when it is received by the voter, and you can begin your GOTV contact, reminding them to look for their ballot and reminding them to fill it out and get it into the mail. Repeatedly. As often as needed. As each ballot is received by the County you can eliminate that contact effort and reallocate the resources to the gradually shrinking universe of VBM ballots still out. As the universe of outstanding ballots becomes increasingly concentrated with infrequent, unmotivated voters your GOTV effort becomes concentrated and focused in proportion. And you get multiple opportunities to prod.
By comparison election day GOTV is high risk, low reward, and inefficient as hell. You get really only one chance. You have little or no real time data with which to reallocate resources. And anything can go wrong. And it almost always does. Ironic then that Trump discouraged GOP voters from VBM this year and have fought to prevent counts of VBM ballots. Shitty weather can screw it up. Anything can screw it up. Putting all their eggs in voting day ballots can backfire, even if local and state officials bend over backwards to run polling places efficiently. And that would be an unprecedented departure from historic practices in Republican strongholds.
In the past stronghold Republicans were used to mass enrollments of their voters in absentee ballots. Leaving election day voting to working class poor, people of color, and the young. Then for election day voting they could close polling places, unplug voting machines, scramble voter rolls, and close early while lines still wind around the block. They can’t really afford to do that to themselves this year with so many of their voters waiting until election day to vote, and with so many Democrats having already voted.
Don’t worry folks, the economy is right on track! It’s the best it’s ever been. Did you see that GDP!
Gary Peters is no Debbie Stabenow.
In Michigan, a black Republican is compelling the Democrat party to do this:
An argument can be made that it’s not just for Biden that Barack Obama will be hanging out in Michigan today.
Election night on 2016 was pretty fuckin’ funny, too.
ORAL HISTORY 8:00 A.M.
An Oral History of Election Night 2016 at MSNBC What it was like to cover the news on the day that gave us the past four years.
Hillary too drunk to come out and speak to her supporters pretty much encapsulated the entire 2016 Democrat train wreck.
If Goldy would link to me instead, he’d get his Twitter material a good 12 hours earlier.
Missouri COVID
Testing – Flat, running at about 7 day average, 18k a day, unchanged.
Record number of new cases. 7 day average, 2,218 per day and increasing
Record number of COVID patients in hospital: 7 day average, 1,420 per day and increasing
COVID deaths: 7 day Average 35.
For reference, number of Flu deaths last week 0.
Heck of a job, republicans. Godwin and puddy, how does that square with your so called pro life values?
This may be related to both @ 1 and @ 3
Detroit Free Press:
Detroit officials project 50% voter turnout and fewer absentee ballots than expected
Turnout is predicted to be two points higher than 2016’s 48%. But a small turnout increase combined with greater black support for Trump translates into…
We’ll see. But Barack doesn’t want to wait to find out.
Peters is an first term incumbent in the United States Senate, targeted since 2015, in a cycle where his party is poised to flip the Senate majority, in a competitive state and race, at a time when his party and his party’s Senate Leadership Fund is literally awash with small donor cash.
Don’t hate the player… hate the game.
If you didn’t want our candidates to have all this support maybe you should have considered fewer photo ops for Guatemalan Toddler Torture.
I was naively hoping that you pussies would at least wait until after you get your asses kicked before you begin this screed of whining. Too much. I know.
Character is destiny, Cat Lady.
The AP is desperate for you to understand that the guy Biden eulogized was NOT a Ku Klux Klan grand wizard.
The Klansman eulogized by Joe Biden, instead, was a Ku Klux Klan exalted cyclops.
To be clear, when Joe Biden eulogized a Klansman, that individual, while a one-time member of the Ku Klux Klan, was not its grand wizard. He held a lower – but still “exalted” – post within the Ku Klux Klan.
I hope that is instructive.
@ 8
…before you begin this screed of whining.
Who is whining?
I have much to be thankful for, QoS McHillbilly. I will always be grateful for the bountiful opportunities granted to me by the likes of Harry Reid and Hillary Clinton. They made it all possible.
7,
A two point turnout increase is actually quite a lot of raw votes in a populous urban area. Again, with the math. And so mostly anecdotal claims from Don Jr. are available to support your keening prayer for Black voters to turn on Democrats. FiveThirtyEight’s analysis that led recently to them suggesting some shift toward Trump from 2016 is based on a fairly awkward apples to oranges comparison using the 2016 CCES post election voter file data (which measures a snapshot of actual votes cast) with the Nationscape longitudinal study of voter intentions.
Turnout is key and a factor that could entirely upend such a prediction. I’ll go out on a limb: Trump is not losing significant support among uneducated white voters compared to 2016. And Biden is not losing significant support among black voters compared to 2016.
And Trump will not win Michigan. Stick with PA. It’s your last best hope. Too bad you’ve run out of money, Russia is on the sidelines, and Facebook Ads has crashed.
You only seem to play Mr. Blue Sky when I remind you to.
For someone claiming such a Zen-like state of contentment you spend an extraordinary amount of time here complaining. And now you reveal you aren’t even aware of it?
Or are you really just admitting that it’s all been fake?
@ 12
For someone claiming such a Zen-like state of contentment you spend an extraordinary amount of time here complaining.
Goldy did an awful lot of complaining in 2009 and 2010, all while his party held the White House and both houses of Congress.
I have just as much right to a quality president of the opposite party as you do, QoS McHillbilly. I very much wish you had chosen a better one. Hence the “complaining”.
Detroit,
You mean where 60%+ of precincts had more votes than registered voters. Need to see the links again for the fifth time? Just ask PortaPotty for a crazed databaze replay!
Trump’s got an op-ed in the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel.
13,
Wait!
So you’re already referring to Biden as President.
Nice.
Still begs the question: Which is the fake part?
The discontented complaining about President Biden?
Or the shirtless, hip-thrusting, end-zone dances over judicial appointments?
Could it be all of it is fake?
Or did you just lose the Zip Drive?
15,
So does President Biden!
https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/solutions/2020/10/29/biden-americans-need-president-who-has-respect-job-and-them/6039001002/
#TrumpBodyPile
I wonder if Goldy is gonna regale us this weekend with another quadrennial screed about “bullshit polls”?
Garbage In, Garbage Out: Are Republican “Pollsters” Gaming Poll Aggregators with Bullshit “Polls?”
Or did he learn his lesson after the embarrassment he suffered in 2016?
Anyhoo, there was one thing Goldy said that stood out from the rest of the crap he spewed:
If a pollster can do that with a single state, why not with the whole country?
I’m fuckin’ with ya. Although Goldy’s embarrassment was very, very real.
@ 17 @ 15
Yup, both major-party candidates were invited to contribute.
Collecting dead Democrat votes one stiff at a time.
Cook Political Report national editor. This probably is a much better point than Biden lead fluctuations or stability.
18,
Compare the number of state level polls, and especially the number of state level live phone interview polls in 2020 to 2016 for any given battleground state.
No matter how ridiculous Trafalgar may be (and you must admit they have to be fairly ridiculous to find themselves alternately defending and then disavowing their own published polls) they are just one shitty, fucked up poll in a universe of much better polls, almost all of which have gone to great trouble (and considerable expense) to improve their reliability.
Sorry about that.
And as far as Trafalgar goes, though we may never know for sure, my suspicion is that the underlying difference (sloppiness aside) is that they are using an unsound weighting method in order to “correct” for what they argue is a disproportionately low response rate among voters who they believe are more likely to vote for Trump but less likely to respond to their polls, or less likely to respond accurately. Trafalgar uses a mix of methodologies including two “digital” survey methods that they do not disclose. And they apply weighting for something they call “social desirability index” which oddly enough they employ equally for live interview responses as well as other non-interactive methods. They claim this “bias index” adjusts for the tendency of survey respondents to conform their responses to the perceived expectations of the interviewer – even when there is no interviewer.
Their success in some past elections in comparison to other polls may be owing to this weighting method. But that does not ensure that the method is sound. Many data scientists argue that a better method is to account for education. There is lots of data supporting the conclusion that more highly educated voters are more likely to respond to surveys. Since the data also indicates that support for Republicans and Trump in particular skews with education, with less educated voters being far more likely to support Republicans and Trump, that could account for the “social desirability bias” Trafalgar claims to observe.
Since 2016 a majority of high quality pollsters have incorporated educational level into their state level polls.
A record 90,000+ Covid cases in the last 24 hours
230,000+ Dead Americans
That is real. What is also real is that the treasonous dumbfuck not only doesn’t give a shit, he thinks it’s fucking funny.
Also quite real, the treasonous dumbfuck is always on the same page as Putin. When Putin gloats, the treasonous dumbfuck gloats. Every fucking time. Without fucking fail.
Multimillionaire Mississippi reactionary who doesn’t like paying taxes, has a history of alcohol and drug abuse, and likes pussygrabbing, endorses his golfing buddy.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/30/politics/brett-favre-endorses-trump-trnd/index.html
Yawn.
@2 More to the point, did you see that stock market this week? Now there’s confidence! Especially in the coronavirus outlook.
@5 In which Doctor Dumbfuck celebrates a partisan judiciary making partisan rulings, because he’s a dumbfuck, and dumbfucks have no use for impartial courts when they can keep the other party from appointing judges.
@13 “I have just as much right to a quality president of the opposite party as you do, QoS McHillbilly. I very much wish you had chosen a better one. Hence the “complaining”.”
Absolutely one of the funniest damn things a Trump ass-kisser has ever posted on this blog.
@15 So Trump’s closing pitch to Wisconsin voters is that Biden will shut down the oil and gas fracking industry in the dairy state?
@20 This is what “election trivia” looks like. Except the word “trivial” doesn’t do it justice.
So far today I have seen two red-site articles that start out with “Forget the polls…”
That’s not how any of this works.
“The National FOP posted a picture of the small boy in the arms of a female police officer after his mother was detained, saying he had been found wandering around barefoot during the protests. The post was soon taken down.”
Here’s what really happened:
“Young took her usual route home only to drive into the fray at about 1:45 a.m. as police clashed with demonstrators. Police told her to turn around. But as she attempted a K-turn, the video shows, officers swarmed her car, broke windows and injured her and her nephew as they pulled them from the vehicle.
“Young spent the next few hours at police headquarters and at a hospital, as she was bruised and bleeding from the head. She asked her mother to try to find the child, who had been pulled from the vehicle by police. The grandmother finally found him in a police cruiser, with a welt on his head and glass in his car seat, Mincey said.”
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/lawyer-mom-child-trapped-crowd-police-smashed-car-73931012
The FOP is a pathetic piece of shit. I hope she sues them for libel.
@ 22
It’s not just Trafalgar, when one considers the “social circle” issue.
USC comes up with something similar.
USC poll that predicted 2016 win says Trump is on track for reelection
Maybe this is just bullshit, but if lightning strikes twice I think it is one of three reasons, the others being statistical variation and (admittedly this last one is very unlikely) widespread poll result falsification.
In the San Diego area some households that had posted pro-GOP signs found themselves with “Racism lives here” signs on their front lawns earlier this week, placed by people who did not like their political leaning. Steve and his fellow pussies have taken to calling anyone who disagrees with them a Nazi traitor. In that context, why would a voter truthfully tell a stranger what (s)he plans to do with a ballot, if there’s reason to believe that answer might be used with malice against said voter?
If there are Trump voters who aren’t answering, or aren’t answering truthfully, it’s not because they are “shy”. It’s because they have been intimidated into keeping their opinions to themselves.
Y’all are real tough when it’s 19 on 1. When faced with reality, y’all put on the pussy hats and scream about unfairness for four years, when the truth is y’all just nominated the second-most-awful candidate and she lost to the most awful one. The difference in awfulness is subjective and the result of the election reflected that.
Deal with it.
I’ve know my party’s candidate sucks since May, 2016. Y’all have only had several months to come to grips with the fact that so does your party’s candidate.
We know a bunch of eBay execs are going to prison. I wonder how many millions of dollars the company will pay to the victims?
https://www.bizjournals.com/boston/news/2020/06/15/ebay-cyberstalking-natick-couple.html
https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/ebay-employees-admit-roles-harassment-scheme-73922876
Oh, and it’s exactly the sort of thing you expect an ex-cop to be involved in, too.
https://tinyurl.com/y4vyr225
Because, let’s face it, while the vast majority of cops are decent hardworking professionals, a few are scum who drag down the entire profession.
What you get when Republican judges run elections:
“A divided Wisconsin Supreme Court on Thursday refused to go along with a request from two counties to allow them to fill in a ballot misprint so that as many as 13,500 ballots can be processed more quickly on Election Day.
“The four conservatives on the court rejected the request from Outagamie and Calumet counties for an order that would allow them to fill in a misprinted ‘timing mark’ so that tabulating machines can read the ballots, rather than have to duplicate them all on readable ballots. The court’s three liberals dissented, saying the decision ‘leaves local election officials in the lurch.’”
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/wisconsin-supreme-court-refuses-offer-ballot-clarity-73912543
Maybe the solution is to strip courts of jurisdiction over campaign contributions, gerrymandering, and elections, and make them stick to deciding questions of law instead of playing politics.
@35 Instead of simply filling in the timing marks, an army of hastily recruited, untrained, and unsupervised temp clerks will have to copy each ballot to a new ballot form, vastly increasing the chances of mistakes and changed votes. But the black-and-white letter of the law is the black-and-white letter of the law.
Moral: Never shall the law and common sense meet inside the brain of a conservative judge.
33,
Geezus.
It only took a career nihilist a few weeks to go from “My team RULES! Your team SUCKS!”, to
EVERYTHING SUCKS!!!
Can’t say it’s progress.
But it’s good to know they’re suffering for their own stupidity.
That’s a question for longitudinal studies like CCES. Up to now the thing you and the rest of your party are looking hasn’t been found. If it exists, it is all new, including 2016. It wasn’t observed when George Wallace ran. It wasn’t observed when David Duke ran for Senate.
Demorat-China Party Of Hate America, Race War & Make Riots Great Again Bombshell News –
Non-Demented Joe Biden-Einstein Narrowly Prevented From Prematurely Launching Mobilization Order For Peoples Lockdown Army (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ANkHVvaA7zQ) By Modified Electronic Dog Collar. Xi Dong, inventor of “Biden-Minder” explained, “I successfully modified existing canine technology so that the Biden-handler may disable speech without giving that bug-eyed look caused by old tranquilizer dart technology. In this case the Biden-handler prevented premature public discovery of Biden-san’s plan to lockdown the entire capitalist American economy.”
————————–
Former Vice President Joe Biden has the internet collectively scratching their heads after announcing that he will “lead an effective strategy to mobilize trunalimunumaprzure.”
The hilarious gaffe came during a campaign stop earlier this week, but began making the social media rounds on Friday afternoon.
People have attempted to figure out what the heck he was trying to say, but it remains unclear.
Video; https://twitter.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1322216287670591488
Article;
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/10/watch-joe-biden-announces-will-lead-effective-strategy-mobilize-trunalimunumaprzure/
Looks like they’re near the bottom of their Hail Mary barrel.
https://twitter.com/jesse_sumpter/status/1321602107623968768
The real Hunter Biden story is there’s no story there.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/here-s-what-happened-when-nbc-news-tried-report-alleged-n1245533
calling anyone who disagrees with them a Nazi traitor.
You associate anyone you disagree with with a bad odor.
Like a nazi would with a jew or another of “inferior race”..
You’re a klown dimfuk. If it’s any comfort, you’re not the only one of your ilk who has done that in these comment threads.
None at all. Not until he starts talking about how he sucks.
The Chinese Communist Party is to blame for this virus.
@44 The TrumPlague Party is to blame for spreading it.
44,
The Communist Chinese are a grave threat to our freedoms.
Trump should stop colluding with them, and taking their money.
He should order his children who work for the US taxpayers (Ivanka and her husband) to do the same.
It’s really an absolute disgrace that our President and his close family members, who draw salaries from our taxes, are also taking money from those people. I wonder why Republicans don’t care?
They should be ashamed. Don’t you agree?
44,
BTW, do you have any comment at all about The President’s Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross serving on the board of directors of a Communist Chinese state-owned enterprise, receiving income and ownership compensation from the Communist Chinese? Don’t you think that was a terrible thing?
For one of the most important cabinet secretaries in The President’s cabinet to also be in the employ of The Chinese Communist Party?
Any comment?
Low energy. No stamina. Sad!
‘Very tired’ president shocks with short speech: ‘I’ve never seen Trump look less interested’
Get a load of Drudge: http://drudgereport.com/
THE FINAL COUNTDOWN
TRUMP INNER CIRCLE PREPS FOR DISASTER
STOCKS POINT TO BIDEN WIN
RECORD 97,080 VIRUS CASES IN DAY
‘DAILY SHOW’ Klepper Hits One Last ‘Eerily Quiet’ Trump Rally…
Zuckerberg braces for civil unrest…
Colorado survivalist camp with bunkers, weapons and guard towers prepared…
WALMART RESTOCKS GUNS, AMMO…
Military election wish: Clear-cut winner…
National Guard Arrives In Philly…
DC Getting Boarded Up…
MAG: 2020s Could Be as Dangerous as 1850s…
48,
Someone told him.
I swear it wasn’t me.